Modelling e-business processes:a component-based simulation approach

With new and emerging e-business technologies to transform business processes, it is important to understand how those technologies will affect the performance of a business. Will the overall business process be cheaper, faster and more accurate or will a sub-optimal change have been implemented? The use of simulation to model the behaviour of business processes is well established, and it has been applied to e-business processes to understand their performance in terms of measures such as lead-time, cost and responsiveness. This paper introduces the concept of simulation components that enable simulation models of e-business processes to be built quickly from generic e-business templates. The paper demonstrates how these components were devised, as well as the results from their application through case studies.

Using the Simulation Modeling Methods for the Designing Real-Time Integrated Expert Systems

Certain theoretical and methodological problems of designing real-time dynamical expert systems, which belong to the class of the most complex integrated expert systems, are discussed. Primary attention is given to the problems of designing subsystems for modeling the external environment in the case where the environment is represented by complex engineering systems. A specific approach to designing simulation models for complex engineering systems is proposed and examples of the application of this approach based on the G2 (Gensym Corp.) tool system are described.

A New Class of Processes for Formalizing and Generalizing Individual-Based Models: The Semi-Semi-Markov Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K15, 60K20, 60G20,60J75, 60J80, 60J85, 60-08, 90B15.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Development of operational performance models for truck-lane restrictions on freeway corridors

Highways are generally designed to serve a mixed traffic flow that consists of passenger cars, trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, etc. The fact that the impacts of these different vehicle types are not uniform creates problems in highway operations and safety. A common approach to reducing the impacts of truck traffic on freeways has been to restrict trucks to certain lane(s) to minimize the interaction between trucks and other vehicles and to compensate for their differences in operational characteristics. ^ The performance of different truck lane restriction alternatives differs under different traffic and geometric conditions. Thus, a good estimate of the operational performance of different truck lane restriction alternatives under prevailing conditions is needed to help make informed decisions on truck lane restriction alternatives. This study develops operational performance models that can be applied to help identify the most operationally efficient truck lane restriction alternative on a freeway under prevailing conditions. The operational performance measures examined in this study include average speed, throughput, speed difference, and lane changes. Prevailing conditions include number of lanes, interchange density, free-flow speeds, volumes, truck percentages, and ramp volumes. ^ Recognizing the difficulty of collecting sufficient data for an empirical modeling procedure that involves a high number of variables, the simulation approach was used to estimate the performance values for various truck lane restriction alternatives under various scenarios. Both the CORSIM and VISSIM simulation models were examined for their ability to model truck lane restrictions. Due to a major problem found in the CORSIM model for truck lane modeling, the VISSIM model was adopted as the simulator for this study. ^ The VISSIM model was calibrated mainly to replicate the capacity given in the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for various free-flow speeds under the ideal basic freeway section conditions. Non-linear regression models for average speed, throughput, average number of lane changes, and speed difference between the lane groups were developed. Based on the performance models developed, a simple decision procedure was recommended to select the desired truck lane restriction alternative for prevailing conditions. ^

A computer simulation model for single -lane roundabouts

During the past three decades, the use of roundabouts has increased throughout the world due to their greater benefits in comparison with intersections controlled by traditional means. Roundabouts are often chosen because they are widely associated with low accident rates, lower construction and operating costs, and reasonable capacities and delay. ^ In the planning and design of roundabouts, special attention should be given to the movement of pedestrians and bicycles. As a result, there are several guidelines for the design of pedestrian and bicycle treatments at roundabouts that increase the safety of both pedestrians and bicyclists at existing and proposed roundabout locations. Different design guidelines have differing criteria for handling pedestrians and bicyclists at roundabout locations. Although all of the investigated guidelines provide better safety (depending on the traffic conditions at a specific location), their effects on the performance of the roundabout have not been examined yet. ^ Existing roundabout analysis software packages provide estimates of capacity and performance characteristics. This includes characteristics such as delay, queue lengths, stop rates, effects of heavy vehicles, crash frequencies, and geometric delays, as well as fuel consumption, pollutant emissions and operating costs for roundabouts. None of these software packages, however, are capable of determining the effects of various pedestrian crossing locations, nor the effect of different bicycle treatments on the performance of roundabouts. ^ The objective of this research is to develop simulation models capable of determining the effect of various pedestrian and bicycle treatments at single-lane roundabouts. To achieve this, four models were developed. The first model simulates a single-lane roundabout without bicycle and pedestrian traffic. The second model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and mixed flow bicyclists. The third model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a combined pedestrian and bicycle crossing, while the fourth model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and a bicycle lane at the outer perimeter of the roundabout for the bicycles. Traffic data was collected at a modern roundabout in Boca Raton, Florida. ^ The results of this effort show that installing a pedestrian crossing on the roundabout approach will have a negative impact on the entry flow, while the downstream approach will benefit from the newly created gaps by pedestrians. Also, it was concluded that a bicycle lane configuration is more beneficial for all users of the roundabout instead of the mixed flow or combined crossing. Installing the pedestrian crossing at one-car length is more beneficial for pedestrians than two- and three-car lengths. Finally, it was concluded that the effect of the pedestrian crossing on the vehicle queues diminishes as the distance between the crossing and the roundabout increases. ^

Evaluating the effectiveness of signal timing optimization based on microscopic simulation evaluation

The optimization of the timing parameters of traffic signals provides for efficient operation of traffic along a signalized transportation system. Optimization tools with macroscopic simulation models have been used to determine optimal timing plans. These plans have been, in some cases, evaluated and fine tuned using microscopic simulation tools. A number of studies show inconsistencies between optimization tool results based on macroscopic simulation and the results obtained from microscopic simulation. No attempts have been made to determine the reason behind these inconsistencies. This research investigates whether adjusting the parameters of macroscopic simulation models to correspond to the calibrated microscopic simulation model parameters can reduce said inconsistencies. The adjusted parameters include platoon dispersion model parameters, saturation flow rates, and cruise speeds. The results from this work show that adjusting cruise speeds and saturation flow rates can have significant impacts on improving the optimization/macroscopic simulation results as assessed by microscopic simulation models.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.

Multi-Agent Simulation and Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative ‘what-if’ questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as “will staff setting their own break times improve performance?” can be investigated.

Investigating output accuracy for a discrete event simulation model and an agent based simulation model

In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store’s fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

Modelling reactive and proactive behaviour in simulation

This research investigated the simulation model behaviour of a traditional and combined discrete event as well as agent based simulation models when modelling human reactive and proactive behaviour in human centric complex systems. A departmental store was chosen as human centric complex case study where the operation system of a fitting room in WomensWear department was investigated. We have looked at ways to determine the efficiency of new management policies for the fitting room operation through simulating the reactive and proactive behaviour of staff towards customers. Once development of the simulation models and their verification had been done, we carried out a validation experiment in the form of a sensitivity analysis. Subsequently, we executed a statistical analysis where the mixed reactive and proactive behaviour experimental results were compared with some reactive experimental results from previously published works. Generally, this case study discovered that simple proactive individual behaviour could be modelled in both simulation models. In addition, we found the traditional discrete event model performed similar in the simulation model output compared to the combined discrete event and agent based simulation when modelling similar human behaviour.

Mycoplasma pneumoniae and/or Chlamydophila pneumoniae inoculation causing different aggravations in cholesterol-induced atherosclerosis in apoE KO male mice

Background: Chamydophila pneumoniae (CP) and/or Mycoplasma pneumoniae ( MP) are two bacteria detected in vulnerable atheromas. In this study we aimed to analyze whether CP and/or MP aggravates atherosclerosis induced by cholesterol-enriched diet in C57BL/6 apoE KO male mice. Thirty male apoE KO mice aged eight weeks fed by a diet containing 1% cholesterol until 32 weeks of age were divided into four groups: the first was inoculated with CP (n = 7), the second with MP (n = 12), the third with both CP + MP ( n = 5), and the fourth with saline (sham n = 6). The animals were re-inoculated at 36 weeks of age, and sacrificed at 40 weeks of age. Two ascending aorta and one aortic arch segments were sampled. In the most severely obstructed segment, vessel diameter, plaque height, percentage of luminal obstruction and the degree of adventitial inflammation were analyzed. The plaque area/intimal surface ratio was obtained by measuring all three segments. The adventitial inflammation was semiquantified (0 absent, 1 mild, 2 moderate, and 3 diffuse). Results: The mean and standard deviation of plaque height, % luminal obstruction, external diameter, the plaque area/intimal surface ratio and the adventitial inflammation values are the following for each group: MP (0.20 +/- 12 mm, 69 +/- 26%, 0.38 +/- 0.11 mm, 0.04 +/- 0.04 and 0.22 +/- 0.67), CP (0.23 +/- 0.08 mm, 90 +/- 26%, 0.37 +/- 0.08 mm, 0.04 +/- 0.03, and 0.44 +/- 0.53), MP + CP ( 18 +/- 0.08 mm, 84 +/- 4.0%, 0.35 +/- 0.25 mm, 0.03 +/- 0.03 and 1.33 +/- 0.82) and sham (0.08 +/- 0.09 mm, 42 +/- 46%, 0.30 +/- 0.10 mm, 0.02 +/- 0.03 and 0.71 +/- 0.76). A wider area of plaque/intimal surface was observed in MP + CP inoculated groups (p = 0.07 and 0.06) as well as an increased plaque height in CP (p = 0.01) in comparison with sham group. There was also an increased luminal obstruction (p = 0.047) in CP inoculated group in comparison to sham group. Adventitial inflammation in MP + CP inoculated group was higher than MP, CP and the sham groups (p = 0.02). Conclusion: Inoculation of CP, MP or both agents in C57BL/6 apoE KO male mice caused aggravation of experimental atherosclerosis induced by cholesterol-enriched diet, with distinct characteristics. CP inoculation increased the plaque height with positive vessel remodeling and co-inoculation of MP + CP caused the highest adventitial inflammation measures.

The impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation phases on off-season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of Sao Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Nina (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Nino, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Adapting the CROPGRO perennial forage model to predict growth of Brachiaria brizantha

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions, and tools to aid in management and research of these forages would be highly beneficial. Crop simulation models synthesize numerous physiological processes and are important research tools for evaluating production of warm-season grasses. This research was conducted to adapt the perennial CROPGRO Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Xaraes] and to describe model adaptation for this species. In order to develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation and partitioning during a 2-year experiment with Xaraes palisadegrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Starting with parameters for the bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge) perennial forage model, dormancy effects had to be minimized, and partitioning to storage tissue/root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area (SLA) and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield per cycle was 3573 kg ha(-1), with a RMSE of 538 kg DM ha(-1) (D-Stat = 0.838, simulated/observed ratio = 1.028). The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of palisadegrass and can be used to simulate growth. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.