Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Memory with emotional content, brain amygdala and Alzheimer`s disease

Objectives - A highly adaptive aspect of human memory is the enhancement of explicit, consciously accessible memory by emotional stimuli. We studied the performance of Alzheimer`s disease (AD) patients and elderly controls using a memory battery with emotional content, and we correlated these results with the amygdala and hippocampus volume. Methods - Twenty controls and 20 early AD patients were subjected to the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) and to magnetic resonance imaging-based volumetric measurements of the medial temporal lobe structures. Results - The results show that excluding control group subjects with 5 or more years of schooling, both groups showed improvement with pleasant or unpleasant figures for the IAPS in an immediate free recall test. Likewise, in a delayed free recall test, both the controls and the AD group showed improvement for pleasant pictures, when education factor was not controlled. The AD group showed improvement in the immediate and delayed free recall test proportional to the medial temporal lobe structures, with no significant clinical correlation between affective valence and amygdala volume. Conclusion - AD patients can correctly identify emotions, at least at this early stage, but this does not improve their memory performance.

Genetic structure and biology of Xylella fastidiosa strains causing disease in citrus and coffee in Brazil

Xylella fastidiosa is a vector-borne, plant-pathogenic bacterium that causes disease in citrus (citrus variegated chlorosis [CVC]) and coffee (coffee leaf scorch [CLS]) plants in Brazil. CVC and CLS occur sympatrically and share leafhopper vectors; thus, determining whether X. fastidiosa isolates can be dispersed from one crop to another and cause disease is of epidemiological importance. We sought to clarify the genetic and biological relationships between CVC- and CLS-causing X. fastidiosa isolates. We used cross-inoculation bioassays and microsatellite and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) approaches to determine the host range and genetic structure of 26 CVC and 20 CLS isolates collected from different regions in Brazil. Our results show that citrus and coffee X. fastidiosa isolates are biologically distinct. Cross-inoculation tests showed that isolates causing CVC and CLS in the field were able to colonize citrus and coffee plants, respectively, but not the other host, indicating biological isolation between the strains. The microsatellite analysis separated most X. fastidiosa populations tested on the basis of the host plant from which they were isolated. However, recombination among isolates was detected and a lack of congruency among phylogenetic trees was observed for the loci used in the MLST scheme. Altogether, our study indicates that CVC and CLS are caused by two biologically distinct strains of X. fastidiosa that have diverged but are genetically homogenized by frequent recombination.

Newcastle disease virus in penguins from King George Island on the Antarctic region

Here we report the isolation of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) from cloacal swabs obtained from penguins in the South Atlantic Antarctic region (62 degrees 08S, 58 degrees 25W). Samples of 100 penguins from King George Island were tested by real-time PCR, of which 2 (2%) were positive for NDV. The positive samples were isolated in embryonated chicken eggs and their matrix and fusion proteins genes were partially sequenced. This was complemented by the serological study performed on the blood of the same specimens, which resulted in a 33.3% rate of positivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

TESA-blot for the diagnosis of Chagas disease in dogs from co-endemic regions for Trypanosoma cruzi, Trypanosoma evansi and Leishmania chagasi

We standardized serodiagnosis of dogs infected with Trypanosoma cruzi using TESA (trypomastigote excreted-secreted antigen)-blot developed for human Chagas disease. TESA-blot showed 100% sensitivity and specificity. In contrast, ELISA using TESA (TESA-ELISA) or epimastigotes (epi-ELISA) as antigen yielded 100% sensitivity but specificity of 94.1% and 49.4%, respectively. When used in field studies in an endemic region for Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis and Trypanosoma evansi (Mato Grosso do Sul state, Central Brazil), positivities were 9.3% for TESA-blot, 10.7% for TESA-ELISA and 32% for epi-ELISA. Dogs from a non-endemic region for these infections (Rondonia state, western Amazonia) where T cruzi is enzootic showed positivity of 4.5% for TESA-blot and epi-ELISA and 6.8% for TESA-ELISA. Sera from urban dogs from Santos, Sao Paulo, where these diseases are absent, yielded negative results. TESA-blot was the only method that distinguished dogs infected with T cruzi from those infected with Leishmania chagasi and/or Trypanosoma evansi. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Localization of Pantoea ananatis inside lesions of maize White Spot Disease using transmission electron microscopy and molecular techniques

The etiological agent of maize white spot (MWS) disease has been a subject of controversy and discussion. Initially the disease was described as Phaeosphaeria leaf spot caused by Phaeosphaeria maydis. Other authors have Suggested the existence of different fungal species causing similar symptoms. Recently, a bacterium, Pantoea ananatis, was described as the causal agent of this disease. The purpose of this Study was to offer additional information on the correct etiology of this disease by providing visual evidence of the presence of the bacterium in the interior of the MWS lesions by using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and molecular techniques. The TEM allowed Visualization of a large amount of bacteria in the intercellular spaces of lesions collected from both artificially and naturally infected plants. Fungal structures were not visualized in young lesions. Bacterial primers for the 16S rRNA and rpoB genes were used in PCR reactions to amplify DNA extracted from water-soaked (young) and necrotic lesions. The universal fungal oligonucleotide ITS4 was also included to identity the possible presence of fungal structures inside lesions. Positive PCR products from water-soaked lesions, both from naturally and artificially inoculated plants, were produced with bacterial primers, whereas no amplification was observed when ITS4 oligonucleotide was used. On the other hand, DNA amplification with ITS4 primer was observed when DNA was isolated from necrotic (old) lesions. These results reinforced previous report of P. ananatis as the primary pathogen and the hypothesis that fungal species may colonize lesions pre-established by P. ananatis.

Air trapping: The major factor limiting diaphragm mobility in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients

Background and objective: Patients with COPD can have impaired diaphragm mechanics. A new method of assessing the mobility of the diaphragm, using ultrasound, has recently been validated. This study evaluated the relationship between pulmonary function and diaphragm mobility, as well as that between respiratory muscle strength and diaphragm mobility, in COPD patients. Methods: COPD patients with pulmonary hyperinflation (n = 54) and healthy subjects (n = 20) were studied. Patients were tested for pulmonary function, maximal respiratory pressures and diaphragm mobility using ultrasound to measure the craniocaudal displacement of the left branch of the portal vein. Results: COPD patients had less diaphragm mobility than did healthy individuals (36.5 +/- 10.9 mm vs 46.3 +/- 9.5 mm, P = 0.001). In COPD patients, diaphragm mobility correlated strongly with pulmonary function parameters that quantify air trapping (RV: r = -0.60, P < 0.001; RV/TLC: r = -0.76, P < 0.001), moderately with airway obstruction (FEV1: r = 0.55, P < 0.001; airway resistance: r = -0.32, P = 0.02) and weakly with pulmonary hyperinflation (TLC: r = -0.28, P = 0.04). No relationship was observed between diaphragm mobility and respiratory muscle strength (maximal inspiratory pressure: r = -0.11, P = 0.43; maximal expiratory pressure: r = 0.03, P = 0.80). Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the reduction in diaphragm mobility in COPD patients is mainly due to air trapping and is not influenced by respiratory muscle strength or pulmonary hyperinflation.

Relationship between occurrence of Panama disease in banana trees of cv. Nanicao and nutrients in soil and leaves

Relationship between occurrence of Panama disease in banana trees of cv. Nanicao and nutrients in soil and leaves The objective of the present work was to verify if the incited symptoms in banana trees cv. Nanicao, belonging to the subgroup Cavendish, in Vale do Ribeira, are related to levels of nutrients in soil and leaves. Sixteen areas in Vale do Ribeira were selected, one half with symptomatic plants and the other with healthy plants. In those areas the third leaf of five plants and the soil near those plants were collected, at depths from 0 to 20 cm and from 20 to 40 cm. At both depths of the sampled soil, levels of Ca, Mg, PO(4)(-3), S and cationic exchange capacity (CEC) were significantly different among the areas, and the low values of these elements were present in the areas containing symptomatic plants. At both depths, Mg, Al and H in relation to CEC were significantly different among the areas, and the low values of Mg and high of Al and H were present in the areas with symptomatic plants. The N, K and S in the leaves were significantly different among the areas. These elements showed low values in the areas containing symptomatic plants. Despite the fact that some amounts of macronutrients of the soil and of the leaves are present only in the areas containing plants of Nanicao with symptoms similar to fusariosis, proof of a possible occurrence of race of the pathogen should be looked for in Vale do Ribeira.

Nutritional status of selenium in Alzheimer`s disease patients

Studies have shown that various antioxidants are decreased in different age-related degenerative diseases and thus, oxidative stress would have a central role in the pathogenesis of many disorders that involve neuronal degeneration, including Alzheimer`s disease (AD). The present study aimed to assess the nutritional status of Se in AD patients and to compare with control subjects with normal cognitive function. The case control study was carried out on a group of elderly with AD (n 28) and compared with a control group (n 29), both aged between 60 and 89 years. Se intake was evaluated by using a 3-d dietary food record. Se was evaluated in plasma, erythrocytes and nails by using the method of hydride generation atomic absorption spectroscopy. Deficient Se intake was largely observed in the AD group. AD patients showed significantly lower Se levels in plasma, erythrocytes and nails (32.59 mu g/l, 43.74 mu g/l and 0.302 mu g/g) when compared with the control group (50.99 mu g/l, 79.16 mu g/l and 0.400 mu g/g). The results allowed us to suggest that AD has an important relation with Se deficiency.

Hand position on the bunch and source-sink ratio influence the banana fruit susceptibility to crown rot disease

The postharvest development of crown rot of bananas depends notably on the fruit susceptibility to this disease at harvest. It has been shown that fruit susceptibility to crown rot is variable and it was suggested that this depends on environmental preharvest factors. However, little is known about the preharvest factors influencing this susceptibility. The aim of this work was to evaluate the extent to which fruit filling characteristics during growth and the fruit development stage influence the banana susceptibility to crown rot. This involved evaluating the influence of (a) the fruit position at different levels of the banana bunch (hands) and (b) changing the source-sink ratio (So-Si ratio), on the fruit susceptibility to crown rot. The fruit susceptibility was determined by measuring the internal necrotic surface (INS) after artificial inoculation of Colletotrichum musae. A linear correlation (r = -0.95) was found between the hand position on the bunch and the INS. The So-Si ratio was found to influence the pomological characteristics of the fruits and their susceptibility to crown rot. Fruits of bunches from which six hands were removed (two hands remaining on the bunch) proved to be significantly less susceptible to crown rot (INS = 138.3 mm 2) than those from bunches with eight hands (INS = 237.9 mm 2). The banana susceptibility to crown rot is thus likely to be influenced by the fruit development stage and filling characteristics. The present results highlight the importance of standardising hand sampling on a bunch when testing fruit susceptibility to crown rot. They also show that hand removal in the field has advantages in the context of integrated pest management, making it possible to reduce fruit susceptibility to crown rot while increasing fruit size.