Future at risk: A study on the Club of Rome

Sustainability, in its modern meaning, has been discussed for more than forty years. However, many experts believe that humanity is still far from being sustainable. Some experts have argued that humanity should seek survivable development because it is too late for sustainable one, since 1990s. Obviously, some problems prevented humanity from becoming sustainable. This thesis focuses on the agenda of sustainability discussions and seeks for the essential topics missing from it. For this purpose, the research is conducted on 21 out of 33 books endorsed by the Club of Rome. All of these books are titled ‘a report to the Club of Rome’. The Club of Rome is an organization that has been constantly working on the problems of humankind for the past 40 years. This thesis has three main components: first, the messages of the reports to the Club of Rome, second, academics perceptions of the Club, and third, the Club member perceptions of its evolution, messages and missing topics. This thesis investigates the evolution of four aspects in the reports. The first one is the agenda of the reports. The second one is the basic approaches of the Club (i.e., global, long-term and holistic). The third one is the ways that the reports treat free market and growth ideology. The fourth one is the approach of the reports toward components of the global complex system (i.e., society, economy and politics). The outline of the thesis is as follows. First, the original reports are briefly summarized. After this, the academic perceptions are discussed and structured around three concepts (i.e., futures studies, sustainability and degrowth). In the final step, the perceptions of the experts are collected and analysed, using a variation of Delphi method, called ‘in-depth interviews’, and ‘quality content analysis’ method. This thesis is useful for those interested in sustainability, global problems, and the Club of Rome. This thesis concludes that the reports from 1972 up to 1980 were cohesive in discussing topics related to the problems of humankind. The topics of the reports are fragmented after this period. The basic approaches of CoR are visible in all the reports. However, after 1980, those approaches and especially holistic thinking are only visible in the background. Regarding the free market and growth ideology, although all the reports are against them, the early reports were more explicitly expressing their disagreement. A milestone is noticeable around 1980 when such objections went completely to the background. However, recent reports are more similar to those of 1970s both in adopting a holistic approach and in explicitly criticizing free market and growth ideology. Finally, concerning the components of global complex system, the society is excluded and the focus of the reports is on politics, economy and their relation. Concerning the topics missing from the debate, this thesis concludes that no major research has been conducted on the fundamental and underlying reasons of the problems (e.g. beliefs, values and culture). Studying the problems without considering their underlying reasons, obviously, leads to superficial and ineffective solutions. This might be one of the reasons that sustainability discussions have as yet led to no concrete result.

Clinical assessment of the effect of digital filtering on the detection of ventricular late potentials

Ventricular late potentials are low-amplitude signals originating from damaged myocardium and detected on the body surface by ECG filtering and averaging. Digital filters present in commercial equipment may interfere with the ability of arrhythmia stratification. We compared 40-Hz BiSpec (BI) and classical 40- to 250-Hz band-pass Butterworth bidirectional (BD) filters in terms of impact on time domain variables and diagnostic properties. In a transverse retrospective age-adjusted case-control study, 221 subjects with sinus rhythm without bundle branch block were divided into three groups after signal-averaged ECG acquisition: GI (N = 40), clinically normal controls, GII (N = 158), subjects with coronary heart disease without sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT), and GIII (N = 23), subjects with heart disease and documented SMVT. Conventional variables analyzed from vector magnitude data after averaging to 0.3 µV final noise were obtained by application of each filter to the averaged signal, and evaluated in pairs by numerical comparison and by diagnostic agreement assessment, using conventional and optimized thresholds of normality. Significant differences were found between BI and BD variables in all groups, with diagnostic results showing significant disagreement between both filters [kappa value of 0.61 (P<0.05) for GII and 0.31 for GIII (P = NS)]. Sensitivity for SMVT was lower with BI than with BD (65.2 vs 91.3%, respectively, P<0.05). Filters provided significantly different numerical and diagnostic results and the BI filter showed only limited clinical application to risk stratification of ventricular arrhythmia.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Evaluating the Strategic Objectives of Cameroonian Higher Education: An application of the Balanced Scorecard

Contemporary higher education operates in an environment of dwindling and parsimonious resources; the increasing need for accountability and relevance to varying stakeholders with differing expectations. These relatively new trends in higher education have been faced by business organizations which have developed different ways of operating in response. This study outlines one way by which business organizations have addressed similar circumstances to show how the Cameroon higher education (HE) could learn from business organizations to manage strategic objectives. The balanced scorecard (BSC) has been used by business organizations to address similar trends. This study evaluates the strategic objectives of Cameroonian higher education using the balanced scorecard. The system level is used to identify the general strategic objectives and one state university is used to represent the translation and implementation of the objectives at the institution level. The BSC principles used include: operational strategic objectives; organizational alignment to the strategy; making strategy everyone’s everyday job; making strategy continual and; mobilizing the leadership for change. The underlying concepts in these principles are communication, consensus, relevance, and a participatory approach. The study employs data from policy documents, relevant literature, websites and semi-structured interviews. The research approach is qualitative and the analyses are done by making meaning of phenomena in their natural contexts. The results show that there is a general knowledge of the strategic objectives but there is disagreement on the relevance of these objectives to HE and on the type of approaches used in implementing the objectives. It was also found that the relevant stakeholders are known, but not all the respondents agree on the importance of these stakeholders. All stakeholders do not have the same level of influence-the state is the most influential. Reporting is sufficiently done but there are insufficient provisions for feedback from stakeholders. The study concludes that the BSC principles can be applied to the management of strategic objectives in Cameroon HE. For Cameroonian higher education, it is recommended that the focus should be first, on developing tools for strategy before the strategy itself. Even though the need for the BSC is confirmed the context does not seem sufficiently ready to implement the BSC as a strategic management tool. The proposed BSC framework can only be used as a communication tool. The barriers to managing strategic objectives in Cameroon HE are related to the communication, consensus, clarity and relevance. However, the system has prospects for improved management and eventual adoption of the BSC as both a strategic management and communication tool. In line with other BSC applications to higher education, this study concluded that it is more feasible to apply the balanced scorecard to a single higher education institution than to a higher education system. The study makes a contribution to the BSC by showing how its principles can be used in a non-business context. The study also opens up possibilities for future research on the same topic in a different context or the same context with a wider scope (more institutions and respondents); the same study with a deeper focus on the interrelationships between the different strategic objectives (strategy maps). The study could also be extended by including the perspectives of the identified stakeholders who are not directly part of the higher education system but constitute the environment in which higher education operates.

Comparison of the diagnosis of malaria by microscopy, immunochromatography and PCR in endemic areas of Venezuela

Whole blood samples (N = 295) were obtained from different locations in Amazonas and Sucre States, in Venezuela. Malaria was diagnosed by microscopy, OptiMAL™ and polymerase chain reaction (PCR), with Plasmodium vivax, P. falciparum, and P. malariae being detected when possible. We identified 93 infections, 66 of which were caused by P. vivax, 26 by P. falciparum, and 1 was a mixed infection. No infection caused by P. malariae was detected. The sensitivity and specificity of each diagnostic method were high: 95.7 and 97.9% for microscopy, 87.0 and 97.9% for OptiMAL, and 98.0 and 100% for PCR, respectively. Most samples (72.2%) showed more than 5000 parasites/µL blood. The sensitivity of the diagnosis by microscopy and OptiMAL decreased with lower parasitemia. All samples showing disagreement among the methods were reevaluated, but the first result was used for the calculations. Parasites were detected in the 6 false-negative samples by microscopy after the second examination. The mixed infection was only detected by PCR, while the other methods diagnosed it as P. falciparum (microscopy) or P. vivax (OptiMAL) infection. Most of the false results obtained with the OptiMAL strip were related to the P. falciparum-specific band, including 3 species misdiagnoses, which could be related to the test itself or to genetic variation of the Venezuelan strains. The use of the microscopic method for malaria detection is recommended for its low cost but is very difficult to implement in large scale, population-based studies; thus, we report here more efficient methods suitable for this purpose.

Determination of myocardial infarction size in rats by echocardiography and tetrazolium staining: correlation, agreements, and simplifications

Triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining and echocardiography (ECHO) are methods used to determine experimental myocardial infarction (MI) size, whose practical applicability should be expanded. Our objectives were to analyze the accuracy of ECHO in determining infarction size in rats during the first days following coronary occlusion and to test whether a simplified single measurement by TTC correctly indicates MI size, as determined by the average value for multiple slices. Infarction was induced in female Wistar rats by coronary artery occlusion and MI size analysis was performed after the acute (7th day) and chronic periods (after 4 weeks) by ECHO matched with TTC. ECHO and TTC showed similar values of MI size (% of left ventricle perimeter) in acute (ECHO: 33 ± 11, TTC: 35 ± 14) and chronic (ECHO: 38 ± 14, TTC: 39 ± 13 periods), and also presented an excellent correlation (r = 0.92, P < 0.001). Although measurements from different heart planes showed discrepancies, a single measurement acquired from the mid-ventricular level by TTC was a good estimate of MI size calculated by the average of multiple planes, with minimal disagreement (Bland-Altman test with mean ratio bias of 0.99 ± 0.07) and close to an ideal correlation (r = 0.99, P < 0.001). In the present study, ECHO was confirmed as a useful method for the determination of MI size even in the acute phase. Also, the single measure of a mid-ventricular section proposed as a simplification of the TTC method is a satisfactory prediction of average MI extension.

Critical analysis of autoregressive and fast Fourier transform markers of cardiovascular variability in rats and humans

The autonomic nervous system plays an important role in physiological and pathological conditions, and has been extensively evaluated by parametric and non-parametric spectral analysis. To compare the results obtained with fast Fourier transform (FFT) and the autoregressive (AR) method, we performed a comprehensive comparative study using data from humans and rats during pharmacological blockade (in rats), a postural test (in humans), and in the hypertensive state (in both humans and rats). Although postural hypotension in humans induced an increase in normalized low-frequency (LFnu) of systolic blood pressure, the increase in the ratio was detected only by AR. In rats, AR and FFT analysis did not agree for LFnu and high frequency (HFnu) under basal conditions and after vagal blockade. The increase in the LF/HF ratio of the pulse interval, induced by methylatropine, was detected only by FFT. In hypertensive patients, changes in LF and HF for systolic blood pressure were observed only by AR; FFT was able to detect the reduction in both blood pressure variance and total power. In hypertensive rats, AR presented different values of variance and total power for systolic blood pressure. Moreover, AR and FFT presented discordant results for LF, LFnu, HF, LF/HF ratio, and total power for pulse interval. We provide evidence for disagreement in 23% of the indices of blood pressure and heart rate variability in humans and 67% discordance in rats when these variables are evaluated by AR and FFT under physiological and pathological conditions. The overall disagreement between AR and FFT in this study was 43%.

An exploration of the experience of implementing the second step violence prevention curriculum in one primary general learning disabilities class /

Violence has always been a part of the human experience, and therefore, a popular topic for research. It is a controversial issue, mostly because the possible sources of violent behaviour are so varied, encompassing both biological and environmental factors. However, very little disagreement is found regarding the severity of this societal problem. Most researchers agree that the number and intensity of aggressive acts among adults and children is growing. Not surprisingly, many educational policies, programs, and curricula have been developed to address this concern. The research favours programs which address the root causes of violence and seek to prevent rather than provide consequences for the undesirable behaviour. But what makes a violence prevention program effective? How should educators choose among the many curricula on the market? After reviewing the literature surrounding violence prevention programs and their effectiveness, The Second Step Violence Prevention Curriculum surfaced as unique in many ways. It was designed to address the root causes of violence in an active, student-centred way. Empathy training, anger management, interpersonal cognitive problem solving, and behavioural social skills form the basis of this program. Published in 1992, the program has been the topic of limited research, almost entirely carried out using quantitative methodologies.The purpose of this study was to understand what happens when the Second Step Violence Prevention Curriculum is implemented with a group of students and teachers. I was not seeking a statistical correlation between the frequency of violence and program delivery, as in most prior research. Rather, I wished to gain a deeper understanding of the impact ofthe program through the eyes of the participants. The Second Step Program was taught to a small, primary level, general learning disabilities class by a teacher and student teacher. Data were gathered using interviews with the teachers, personal observations, staff reports, and my own journal. Common themes across the four types of data collection emerged during the study, and these themes were isolated and explored for meaning. Findings indicate that the program does not offer a "quick fix" to this serious problem. However, several important discoveries were made. The teachers feU that the program was effective despite a lack of concrete evidence to support this claim. They used the Second Step strategies outside their actual instructional time and felt it made them better educators and disciplinarians. The students did not display a marked change in their behaviour during or after the program implementation, but they were better able to speak about their actions, the source of their aggression, and the alternatives which were available. Although they were not yet transferring their knowledge into positive action,a heightened awareness was evident. Finally, staff reports and my own journal led me to a deeper understanding ofhow perception frames reality. The perception that the program was working led everyone to feel more empowered when a violent incident occurred, and efforts were made to address the cause rather than merely to offer consequences. A general feeling that we were addressing the problem in a productive way was prevalent among the staff and students involved. The findings from this investigation have many implications for research and practice. Further study into the realm of violence prevention is greatly needed, using a balance of quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Such a serious problem can only be effectively addressed with a greater understanding of its complexities. This study also demonstrates the overall positive impact of the Second Step Violence Prevention Curriculum and, therefore, supports its continued use in our schools.

Moral identity, youth engagement, and discussions with parents and peers /

The strength of adolescents' moral identity was examined in relation to their sense of social responsibility, frequency of community engagement, and interactions with parents and friends. Participants were 191 applicants to national youth conferences, ranging in age from 14-19, who completed a 40-minute survey. 76% of the participants were female. Social responsibility, community engagement, and discussion with parents and friends were measured using self-report questionnaires. Participants also reported on the importance of various values to themselves, their parents, and their friends, which were used to create an index of the degree of disagreement between the youth and their parents and friends. In addition, participants provided self-descriptions, which were used to measure moral identity with both a coding scheme and a ratings measure. Moral identity as measured by coding was not related to social responsibility, community engagement, or any other study variables, and thus did not appear to be a valid measure of moral identity. However, moral identity as measured by ratings was related to both social responsibility and community engagement, and thus appeared to be a valid measure. Neither disagreement nor discussion with friends was related to moral identity. However, disagreement with parents was positively related to moral identity ratings, and for girls only was negatively related to social responsibility. Furthermore, discussion with parents was positively related to moral identity for boys only. The hypothesis predicting a mediational model was not supported. Results were discussed in terms of theoretical positions on the role of parents and friends in children's moral development and suggestions for ftiture research were made.

Sample preparation and heavy metal determination by atomic spectrometry /

Microwave digestions of mercury in Standards Reference Material (SRM) coal samples with nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide in quartz vessels were compared with Teflon® vessel digestion by using flow injection cold vapor atomic absorption spectrometry. Teflon® vessels gave poor reproducibiUty and tended to deliver high values, while the digestion results from quartz vessel show good agreement with certificate values and better standard deviations. Trace level elements (Ag, Ba, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Mo, Pb, Sn, Ti, V and Zn) in used oil and residual oil samples were determined by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry. Different microwave digestion programs were developed for each sample and most of the results are in good agreement with certified values. The disagreement with values for Ag was due to the precipitation of Ag in sample; while Sn, V and Zn values had good recoveries from the spike test, which suggests that these certified values might need to be reconsidered. Gold, silver, copper, cadmium, cobalt, nickel and zinc were determined by continuous hydride generation inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry. The performance of two sample introduction systems: MSIS™ and gas-liquid separator were compared. Under the respective optimum conditions, MSIS^"^ showed better sensitivity and lower detection limits for Ag, Cd, Cu, Co and similar values for Au, Ni and Zn to those for the gas-liquid separator.

Is technology a threat to education? : the contribution of George Parkin Grant

Thesis (M.Ed.)-- Brock University, 1995.

Teachers' likes and dislikes as factors in educational change

Teachers at local elementary and secondary schools were invited to participate in a survey research study by completing a questionnaire containing 26 statements regarding educational issues (e.g., "I am satisfied with the quality of my interactions with students."). Teachers were asked to indicate whether they agreed, were neutral, or disagreed with each statement; and further, to make a suggestions for appropriate change; to indicate a level at which the change could be implemented (classroom, school, board, ministry, society); and to indicate to what extent they perceive they have influence on change in the area represented in the statement. The responses of 50 elementary and 50 secondary teachers were randomly chosen from among the completed questionnaires and the information was recorded for analysis. Results of frequency counts of responses showed teachers were generally satisfied with their experiences of the areas referred to in the statements. Seventy-two percent of the responses agreed with the statements; 15% of the responses indicated disagreement, and 13% of the responses were neutral. Cross-tabulations of the survey data with demographic information showed differences among the responses of female and male teachers; elementary and secondary teachers; and teachers grouped according to their total years of teaching experience.

Neutrality and the social contract

Given the fact of moral disagreement, theories of state neutrality which rely on moral premises will have limited application, in that they will fail to motivate anyone who rejects the moral premises on which they are based. By contrast, contractarian theories can be consistent with moral scepticism, and can therefore avoid this limitation. In this paper, I construct a contractarian model which I claim is sceptically consistent and includes a principle of state neutrality as a necessary condition. The principle of neutrality which I derive incorporates two conceptions of neutrality (consequential neutrality and justificatory neutrality) which have usually been thought of as distinct and incompatible. I argue that contractarianism gives us a unified account of these conceptions. Ultimately, the conclusion that neutrality can be derived without violating the constraint established by moral scepticism turns out to rely on an assumption of equal precontractual bargaining power. I do not attempt to defend this assumption here. If the assumption cannot be defended in a sceptically consistent fashion, then the argument for neutrality given here is claimed to be morally minimal, rather than fully consistent with moral scepticism.

Tolérance et neutralité: incompatibles ou complémentaires?

La tolérance et la neutralité sont habituellement considérées comme des réponses interchangeables ou du moins complémentaires à des situations de conflit et de désaccord moral. Malgré cette association traditionnelle, plusieurs auteurs ont récemment contesté la complémentarité, voire même la compatibilité, de ces deux notions. Cet article examine tout d’abord deux arguments qui visent à établir l’incompatibilité de la tolérance et de la neutralité. Il montre ensuite que si ces arguments ne sont pas probants, en ce sens qu’ils ne parviennent pas à montrer l’impossibilité d’une conciliation entre tolérance et neutralité, ils mettent néanmoins en évidence deux difficultés qui se dressent sur le chemin d’une telle conciliation. Il introduit enfin une conception particulière de la tolérance fondée sur l’idée de justice et indique comment elle permet de remédier aux difficultés précédemment mises en évidence.

La querelle analogie-anomalie : Cratès de Mallos était-il anomaliste?

Ce mémoire portera sur un aspect négligé de la querelle analogie-anomalie, la position des soi-disant anomalistes. On s'appliquera en effet à confronter le portrait de l'anomaliste présenté par Varron dans son De Lingua Latina, qui passe souvent pour être Cratès de Mallos, à ce que nous connaissons du grammairien à travers les scholies homériques. En un premier temps seront résumés et analysés les livres 8 à 10 du De Lingua Latina, seul témoignage positif au sujet de la querelle. Au deuxième chapitre seront examinés puis rejetées les sources grecques que la critique moderne a jugées perninentes à la reconstruction de la querelle. Une attention particulière sera accordée à l'école empiriste, à laquelle on a voulu associer la supposée école anomaliste. L'attaque de la grammaire par Sextus Empiricus (Adversus Mathematicos I) sera aussi abordée en détail et ce traité antigrammatical sera mis en parallèle avec le livre 8 du De Lingua Latina. Au troisième chapitre la querelle sera enfin remise dans son contexte original, celui des éditions alexandrines et pergaméennes des auteurs classiques, en particulier Homère. Après une historique du développement de la diorthose (correction des manuscrits d'Homère) de Zénodote à Aristarque, un survol des leçons qui sont attribuées à Cratès montrera le désaccord entre les deux protagonistes de la querelle sur la pratique de l'analogie dans l'édition d'un nouveau texte de la poésie homérique. L'apparition d'anomalies grammaticales dans les leçons de Cratès s'explique par la théorie littéraire euphoniste dont il était partisan.