Using food intake records to estimate compliance with the Eatwell plate dietary guidelines

Funded by Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division Food Standards Agency, UK Biscuit, Cake, Chocolate and Confectionery Association, London, UK

An empirical study of the variability in the composition of British freight trains

As part of the broader sustainability and economic efficiency agenda, European transport policy places considerable emphasis on improving rail’s competitiveness to increase its share of the freight market. Much attention is devoted to infrastructure characteristics which determine the number of freight trains which can operate and influence the operating characteristics of these trains. However, little attention has been devoted to the composition of the freight trains themselves, with scant published data relating to the practicalities of this important component of system utilisation and its impacts on rail freight viability and sustainability. This paper develops a better understanding of the extent to which freight train composition varies, through a large-scale empirical study of the composition of British freight trains. The investigation is based on a survey of almost 3,000 individual freight trains, with analysis at four levels of disaggregation, from the commodity groupings used in official statistics down to individual services. This provides considerable insight into rail freight operations with particular relevance to the efficiency of utilisation of trains using the available network paths. The results demonstrate the limitations of generalising about freight train formations since, within certain commodity groupings, considerable variability was identified even at fairly high levels of disaggregation.

A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Whose health, whose care, whose say? Some comments on public involvement in new NHS commissioning arrangements

Recent health policy in England has demanded greater involvement of patients and the public in the commissioning of health and social care services. Public involvement is seen as a means of driving up service quality, reducing health inequalities and achieving value in commissioning decisions. This paper presents a summary and analysis of the forms that public involvement in commissioning are to take, along with empirical analysis from a qualitative study of service-user involvement. It is argued that the diversity of constituencies covered by the notion of ‘public involvement’, and the breadth of aims that public involvement is expected to achieve, require careful disaggregation. Public involvement in commissioning may encompass a variety of interest groups, whose inputs may include population needs assessment, evaluation of service quality, advocacy of the interests of a particular patient group or service, or a combination of all of these. Each of these roles may be legitimate, but there are significant tensions between them. The extent to which the structures for public involvement proposed recognize these possible tensions is arguably limited. Notably, new Local Involvement Networks (LINks), which will feed into commissioning decisions, are set as the arbiters of these different interests, a demanding role which will require considerable skill, tenacity and robustness if it is to be fulfilled effectively.

O espaço público como elemento agregador de uma augi

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Arquitectura, apresentada na Universidade de Lisboa - Faculdade de Arquitectura.

Analisi del metodo SIAD per il PageRank

In questo lavoro di tesi si analizzerà un metodo per risolvere il problema del PageRank alternativo rispetto al tradizionale metodo delle potenze. Verso la fine degli anni '90, con l’avvento del World Wide Web, fu necessario sviluppare degli algoritmi di classificazione in grado di ordinare i siti web in base alla loro rilevanza. Davanti a questa sfida i due matematici A.N.Langville e C.D.Meyer svilupparono il metodo SIAD, "special iterative aggregation/disaggregation method". Lo scopo di questa tesi è in primo luogo di ricostruire il metodo SIAD e analizzarne le proprietà. Seguendo le analisi in un articolo di I.C.Ipsen e S.Kirkland, si ricostruirà nel dettaglio il metodo SIAD, così da esplicitare la convergenza asintotica del metodo in relazione al complemento stocastico scelto. In secondo luogo si analizzerà il metodo SIAD applicato ad una matrice di Google che rispetta ipotesi determinate, le matrici di Google sono solitamente utilizzate per rappresentare il problema del PageRank. Successivamente, si dimostrerà un importante teorema che prova come per ogni matrice di Google si possa individuare un complemento stocastico per cui il metodo SIAD converge più velocemente del metodo delle potenze. Infine, nell’ultimo capitolo si implementerà con il inguaggio di programmazione Matlab il metodo SIAD per una matrice generica e per una matrice di Google. In particolare, si sfrutterà la struttura della matrice di Google per ridurre sensibilmente il costo computazionale del metodo quando applicato applicato ad una tale matrice.