Deterministic and probabilistic verification of multi-model meteorological forecasts on the subseasonal timescale

In questo studio, un multi-model ensemble è stato implementato e verificato, seguendo una delle priorità di ricerca del Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). Una regressione lineare è stata applicata ad un insieme di previsioni di ensemble su date passate, prodotte dai centri di previsione mensile del CNR-ISAC e ECMWF-IFS. Ognuna di queste contiene un membro di controllo e quattro elementi perturbati. Le variabili scelte per l'analisi sono l'altezza geopotenziale a 500 hPa, la temperatura a 850 hPa e la temperatura a 2 metri, la griglia spaziale ha risoluzione 1 ◦ × 1 ◦ lat-lon e sono stati utilizzati gli inverni dal 1990 al 2010. Le rianalisi di ERA-Interim sono utilizzate sia per realizzare la regressione, sia nella validazione dei risultati, mediante stimatori nonprobabilistici come lo scarto quadratico medio (RMSE) e la correlazione delle anomalie. Successivamente, tecniche di Model Output Statistics (MOS) e Direct Model Output (DMO) sono applicate al multi-model ensemble per ottenere previsioni probabilistiche per la media settimanale delle anomalie di temperatura a 2 metri. I metodi MOS utilizzati sono la regressione logistica e la regressione Gaussiana non-omogenea, mentre quelli DMO sono il democratic voting e il Tukey plotting position. Queste tecniche sono applicate anche ai singoli modelli in modo da effettuare confronti basati su stimatori probabilistici, come il ranked probability skill score, il discrete ranked probability skill score e il reliability diagram. Entrambe le tipologie di stimatori mostrano come il multi-model abbia migliori performance rispetto ai singoli modelli. Inoltre, i valori più alti di stimatori probabilistici sono ottenuti usando una regressione logistica sulla sola media di ensemble. Applicando la regressione a dataset di dimensione ridotta, abbiamo realizzato una curva di apprendimento che mostra come un aumento del numero di date nella fase di addestramento non produrrebbe ulteriori miglioramenti.

Survivability : A Unifiying Concept for the Transient Resilience of Deterministic Dynamical Systems

16 pages

Survivability : A Unifiying Concept for the Transient Resilience of Deterministic Dynamical Systems

16 pages

FdDCA : A Novel Fuzzy Deterministic Dendritic Cell Algorithm

Postprint

Survivability of Deterministic Dynamical Systems

Acknowledgements We acknowledge gratefully the support of BMBF, CoNDyNet, FK. 03SF0472A, of the EIT Climate-KIC project SWIPO and Nora Molkenthin for illustrating our illustration of the concept of survivability using penguins. We thank Martin Rohden for providing us with the UK high-voltage transmission grid topology and Yang Tang for very useful discussions. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Leibniz Association.

Slow deterministic vector rogue waves

For an erbium-doped fiber laser mode-locked by carbon nanotubes, we demonstrate experimentally and theoretically a new type of the vector rogue waves emerging as a result of the chaotic evolution of the trajectories between two orthogonal states of polarization on the Poincare sphere. In terms of fluctuation induced phenomena, by tuning polarization controller for the pump wave and in-cavity polarization controller, we are able to control the Kramers time, i.e. the residence time of the trajectory in vicinity of each orthogonal state of polarization, and so can cause the rare events satisfying rogue wave criteria and having the form of transitions from the state with the long residence time to the state with a short residence time.

Deterministic Switching in Bismuth Ferrite Nanoislands

We report deterministic selection of polarization variant in bismuth BiFeO3 nanoislands via a two-step scanning probe microscopy procedure. The polarization orientation in a nanoisland is toggled to the desired variant after a reset operation by scanning a conductive atomic force probe in contact over the surface while a bias is applied. The final polarization variant is determined by the direction of the inhomogeneous in-plane trailing field associated with the moving probe tip. This work provides the framework for better control of switching in rhombohedral ferroelectrics and for a deeper under- standing of exchange coupling in multiferroic nanoscale hetero- structures toward the realization of magnetoelectric devices.

Deterministic Genericity and the Computation of homological Invariants

The main goal of this thesis is to discuss the determination of homological invariants of polynomial ideals. Thereby we consider different coordinate systems and analyze their meaning for the computation of certain invariants. In particular, we provide an algorithm that transforms any ideal into strongly stable position if char k = 0. With a slight modification, this algorithm can also be used to achieve a stable or quasi-stable position. If our field has positive characteristic, the Borel-fixed position is the maximum we can obtain with our method. Further, we present some applications of Pommaret bases, where we focus on how to directly read off invariants from this basis. In the second half of this dissertation we take a closer look at another homological invariant, namely the (absolute) reduction number. It is a known fact that one immediately receives the reduction number from the basis of the generic initial ideal. However, we show that it is not possible to formulate an algorithm – based on analyzing only the leading ideal – that transforms an ideal into a position, which allows us to directly receive this invariant from the leading ideal. So in general we can not read off the reduction number of a Pommaret basis. This result motivates a deeper investigation of which properties a coordinate system must possess so that we can determine the reduction number easily, i.e. by analyzing the leading ideal. This approach leads to the introduction of some generalized versions of the mentioned stable positions, such as the weakly D-stable or weakly D-minimal stable position. The latter represents a coordinate system that allows to determine the reduction number without any further computations. Finally, we introduce the notion of β-maximal position, which provides lots of interesting algebraic properties. In particular, this position is in combination with weakly D-stable sufficient for the weakly D-minimal stable position and so possesses a connection to the reduction number.

Fault tolerance logging-based model for deterministic systems

Fault tolerance allows a system to remain operational to some degree when some of its components fail. One of the most common fault tolerance mechanisms consists on logging the system state periodically, and recovering the system to a consistent state in the event of a failure. This paper describes a general fault tolerance logging-based mechanism, which can be layered over deterministic systems. Our proposal describes how a logging mechanism can recover the underlying system to a consistent state, even if an action or set of actions were interrupted mid-way, due to a server crash. We also propose different methods of storing the logging information, and describe how to deploy a fault tolerant master-slave cluster for information replication. We adapt our model to a previously proposed framework, which provided common relational features, like transactions with atomic, consistent, isolated and durable properties, to NoSQL database management systems.

An introduction to mathematical models of coagulation-fragmentation processes: a discrete deterministic mean-field approach

We summarise the properties and the fundamental mathematical results associated with basic models which describe coagulation and fragmentation processes in a deterministic manner and in which cluster size is a discrete quantity (an integer multiple of some basic unit size). In particular, we discuss Smoluchowski's equation for aggregation, the Becker-Döring model of simultaneous aggregation and fragmentation, and more general models involving coagulation and fragmentation.

The deterministic Dendritic Cell Algorithm

The Dendritic Cell Algorithm is an immune-inspired algorithm originally based on the function of natural dendritic cells. The original instantiation of the algorithm is a highly stochastic algorithm. While the performance of the algorithm is good when applied to large real-time datasets, it is difficult to analyse due to the number of random-based elements. In this paper a deterministic version of the algorithm is proposed, implemented and tested using a port scan dataset to provide a controllable system. This version consists of a controllable amount of parameters, which are experimented with in this paper. In addition the effects are examined of the use of time windows and variation on the number of cells, both which are shown to influence the algorithm. Finally a novel metric for the assessment of the algorithms output is introduced and proves to be a more sensitive metric than the metric used with the original Dendritic Cell Algorithm.

Métodos probabilístico e determinístico para diagnóstico da necessidade de subsolagem de solos agrícolas

This paper presents two techniques to evaluate soil mechanical resistance to penetration as an auxiliary method to help in a decision-making in subsoiling operations. The decision is based on the volume of soil mobilized as a function of the considered critical soil resistance to penetration in each case. The first method, probabilistic, uses statistical techniques to define the volume of soil to be mobilized. The other method, deterministic, determines the percentage of soil to be mobilized and its spatial distribution. Both cases plot the percentage curves of experimental data related to the soil mechanical resistance to penetration equal or larger to the established critical level and the volume of soil to be mobilized as a function of critical level. The deterministic method plots showed the spatial distribution of the data with resistance to penetration equal or large than the critical level. The comparison between mobilized soil curves as a function of critical level using both methods showed that they can be considered equivalent. The deterministic method has the advantage of showing the spatial distribution of the critical points.

As diferenças rítmicas entre o português europeu e o português brasileiro: uma abordagem otimalista e minimalista

The aim of this paper is to discuss some rhythmic differences between European and Brazilian Portuguese and their relationship to pretonic vowel reduction phenomena. After the basic facts of PE and PB are presented, we show that the issue cannot be discussed without taking into account secondary stress placement, and we proceed to present the algorithm-based approach to secondary stress in Portuguese, representative of Metrical Phonology analyses. After showing that this deterministic approach cannot adequately explain the variable position of secondary stress in both languages regarding words with an even number of pretonic syllables, we argue for the interpretation of secondary stress and therefore for the construction of rhythmic units at the PF interface, as suggested in Chomsky s Minimalist Program. We also propose, inspired by the constrain hierarchies as proposed in Optimality Theory, that such interpretation must take into account two different constraint rankings, in EP and BP. These different rankings would ultimately explain the rhythmic differences between both languages, as well as the different behavior of pretonic vowels with respect to reduction processes.

O jogo de futebol : investigação de sua estrutura, de seus modelos e da inteligencia de jogo, do ponto de vista da complexidade

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Vinculação determinística de Bancos de Dados sobre mortalidade por Aids

A vinculação determinística de bancos de dados sobre mortalidade por aids tem apresentado problemas causados por falhas nos arquivos. Assim, os objetivos deste estudo foram: avaliar o desempenho da vinculação determinística em bancos de óbito por aids do Programa de Aprimoramento das Informações de Mortalidade no Município de São Paulo (PRO-AIM) e da Fundação SEADE entre os anos de 2000 e 2004 e estimar a cobertura de cada banco. Utilizou-se a rotina merge de um software para vincular os bancos. A primeira etapa pareou os registros automaticamente e, na segunda etapa, cada banco foi conferido para localizar novos pares. Estimaram-se os óbitos pela soma entre casos pareados e não pareados para calcular a cobertura dos bancos. A primeira etapa da vinculação identificou 91,6% dos pares. A segunda etapa adicionou 457 pares. O total de óbitos foi estimado em 5.855, com cobertura de 97,1% do PRO-AIM e 96% do SEADE. O uso da vinculação determinística cobriu grande parte dos casos. O banco do PRO-AIM proporcionou a maior cobertura, com maior quantidade de informações completas e melhor localização geográfica dos casos.