Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

The effects of cold air (-110°C) and water (8°C) cryotherapy on knee skin temperature

Exposure to cold air, whole body cryotherapy (WBC), is a novel treatment employed by athletes. In WBC individuals dressed in minimal clothing are exposed to a temperature below -100°C for 2-4 min. The use of WBC has been advocated as a treatment for various knee injuries. PURPOSE: To compare the effects of two modalities of cryotherapy, -110°C WBC and 8°C cold water immersion (CWI) on knee skin temperature (Tsk). METHODS: With ethical approval and written informed consent 10 healthy active male participants (26.5±4.9 yr, 183.5±6.0 cm, 90.7±19.9 kg, 26.8±5.0 kg/m2, 23.0±9.3% body fat (measured by DXA), 7.6 ± 2.0 mm patellar skin fold; mean±SD) were exposed to 4 min of CWI and WBC. The treatment order was randomised in a controlled crossover design, with a minimum of 7 days between treatments. During WBC participants stood in a chamber (-60±3°C) for 20 s before entering the main chamber (-110°C±3°C) where they remained for 3 min and 40 s. For CWI participants were seated in a tank filled with cold water (8±0.3°C) and immersed to the level of the sternum for 4 min. Right knee Tsk was assessed via non-contact, infrared thermal imaging. A quadrilateral region of interest was created using inert markers placed 5 cm above and below the most superior and inferior aspect of the patella. Tsk within this quadrilateral was recorded pre, immediately post and every 10 min thereafter for 60 min. Tsk changes were examined using a two-way (treatment x time) repeated measures analyses of variance. In addition, a paired sample t-test was used to compare baseline Tsk before both treatments. RESULTS: Knee Tsk was similar before treatment (WBC: 29.9±0.7°C, CWI: 29.6±0.9°C, p>0.05). There was a significant main effect for treatment (p<0.05) and time (p<0.001). Compared to baseline, Tsk was significantly reduced (p<0.05) immediately post and at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 min after both cooling modalities. Knee Tsk was lower (p<0.05) immediately after WBC (19.0±0.9°C) compared to CWI (20.5±0.6°C). However, from 10 to 60 min post, knee Tsk was lower (p<0.05) following the CWI treatment. CONCLUSION: WBC elicited a greater decrease in knee Tsk compared to CWI immediately after treatment. However, both modalities display different recovery patterns and Tsk after CWI was significantly lower than WBC at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 min after treatment.

Effects of whole body cryotherapy and cold water immersion on knee skin temperature

This study sought to a) compare and contrast the effect of 2 commonly used cryotherapy treatments, 4 min of − 110 °C whole body cryotherapy and 8 °C cold water immersion, on knee skin temperature and b) establish whether either protocol was capable of achieving a skin temperature ( < 13 °C) believed to be required for analgesic purposes. After ethics committee approval and written informed consent was obtained, 10 healthy males (26.5 ± 4.9 yr, 183.5 ± 6.0 cm, 90.7 ± 19.9 kg, 26.8 ± 5.0 kg/m 2 , 23.0 ± 9.3 % body fat; mean ± SD) participated in this randomised controlled crossover study. Skin temperature around the patellar region was assessed in both knees via non-contact, infrared thermal imaging and recorded pre-, immediately post-treatment and every 10 min thereafter for 60 min. Compared to baseline, average, minimum and maximum skin temperatures were significantly reduced (p < 0.001) immediately post-treatment and at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 min after both cooling modalities. Average and minimum skin temperatures were lower (p < 0.05) immediately after whole body cryotherapy (19.0 ± 0.9 ° C) compared to cold water immersion (20.5 ± 0.6 ° C). However, from 10 to 60 min post, the average, minimum and maximum skin temperatures were lower (p < 0.05) following the cold water treatment. Finally, neither protocol achieved a skin temperature believed to be required to elicit an analgesic effect.

The temperature dependence of the momentum distribution of beryllium measured by neutron Compton scattering

In this paper we report a new neutron Compton scattering (NCS) measurement of the ground state single atom kinetic energy of polycrystalline beryllium at momentum transfers in the range 27}104 As ~1 and temperatures in the range 110}1150 K. The measurements have been made with the electron Volt spectrometer (eVS) at the ISIS facility and the measured kinetic energies are shown to be &10% higher than calculations made in the harmonic approximation.

The influence of temperature and introduction point on the detection of Rhyzopertha dominica in stored grain

The presence of insect pests in grain storages throughout the supply chain is a significant problem for farmers, grain handlers, and distributors world-wide. Insect monitoring and sampling programmes are used in the stored grains industry for the detection and estimation of pest populations. At the low pest densities dictated by economic and commercial requirements, the accuracy of both detection and abundance estimates can be influenced by variations in the spatial structure of pest populations over short distances. Geostatistical analysis of Rhyzopertha dominica populations in 2 and 3 dimensions showed that insect numbers were positively correlated over short (0.5 cm) distances, and negatively correlated over longer (.10 cm) distances. At 35 C, insects were located significantly further from the grain surface than at 25 and 30 C. Dispersion metrics showed statistically significant aggregation in all cases. The observed heterogeneous spatial distribution of R. dominica may also be influenced by factors such as the site of initial infestation and disturbance during handling. To account for these additional factors, I significantly extended a simulation model that incorporates both pest growth and movement through a typical stored-grain supply chain. By incorporating the effects of abundance, initial infestation site, grain handling, and treatment on pest spatial distribution, I developed a supply chain model incorporating estimates of pest spatial distribution. This was used to examine several scenarios representative of grain movement through a supply chain, and determine the influence of infestation location and grain disturbance on the sampling intensity required to detect pest infestations at various infestation rates. This study has investigated the effects of temperature, infestation point, and grain handling on the spatial distribution and detection of R. dominica. The proportion of grain infested was found to be dependent upon abundance, initial pest location, and grain handling. Simulation modelling indicated that accounting for these factors when developing sampling strategies for stored grain has the potential to significantly reduce sampling costs while simultaneously improving detection rate, resulting in reduced storage and pest management cost while improving grain quality.

Effect of moisture and temperature distribution on dried food microstructure and porosity

Dehydration of food materials requires water removal from it. This removal of moisture prevents the growth and reproduction of microorganisms that cause decay and minimizes many of the moisture-driven deterioration reactions (Brennan, 1994). However, during food drying, many other changes occur simultaneously resulting in a modified overall quality (Kompany et al., 1993). Among the physical attributes of dried food material porosity and microstructure are the important ones that can dominant other quality of dried foods (Aguilera et al., 2000). In addition, this two concerned quality attributes affected by process conditions, material components and raw structure of food stuff. In this work, temperature moisture distribution within food materials during microwave drying will be taken into consideration to observe its participation on the microstructure and porosity of the finished product. Apple is the selective materials for this work. Generally, most of the food materials are found in non-uniformed moisture contained condition. To develop non uniform temperature distribution, food materials have been dried in a microwave oven with different power levels (Chua et al., 2000). First of all, temperature and moisture model is simulated by COMSOL Multiphysics. Later on, digital imaging camera and Image Pro Premier software have been deployed to observation moisture distribution and thermal imaging camera for temperature distribution. Finally, Microstructure and porosity of the food materials are obtained from scanning electron microscope and porosity measuring devices respectively . Moisture distribution and temperature during drying influence the microstructure and porosity significantly. Specially, High temperature and moisture contained regions show less porosity and more rupture. These findings support other literatures of Halder et al. (2011) and Rahman et al (1990). On the other hand, low temperature and moisture regions depict uniform microstructure and high porosity. This work therefore assists in better understanding of the role of moisture and temperature distribution to a prediction of micro structure and porosity of dried food materials.

Fire safety of buildings based on realistic fire time-temperature curves

In recent times, fire has become a major disaster in buildings due to the increase in fire loads, as a result of modern furniture and light weight construction. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances lead to the collapse of buildings (Lewis, 2008 and Nyman, 2002). Recent research has shown that the actual fire resistance of building elements exposed to building fires can be less than their specified fire resistance rating (Lennon and Moore, 2003, Jones, 2002, Nyman, 2002 and Abecassis-Empis et al. 2008). Conventionally the fire rating of building elements is determined using fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. This ISO 834 curve was developed in the early 1900s, where wood was the basic fuel source. In reality, modern buildings make use of thermoplastic materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. These materials are high in calorific values and increase both the speed of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Hence it suggests the need to use realistic fire time-temperature curves in tests. Real building fire temperature profiles depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials. Fuel load is selected based on a review and suitable realistic fire time-temperature curves were developed. Fire tests were then performed for plasterboard lined light gauge steel framed walls for the developed realistic fire curves. This paper presents the details of the development of suitable realistic building fire curves, and the fire tests using them. It describes the fire performance of tested walls in comparison to the standard fire tests and highlights the differences between them. This research has shown the need to use realistic fire exposures in assessing the fire resistance rating of building elements.

A combined temperature-programmed reaction spectroscopy and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy study of CO2/H2 and CO/CO2/H2 interactions with model ZnO/SiO2, Cu/SiO2 and Cu/ZnO/SiO2 methanol-synthesis catalysts

The reaction of CO2 and H2 with ZnO/SiO2 catalyst at 295 K gave predominantly hydrogencarbonate on zinc oxide and a small quantity of formate was evolved after heating at 393 K. Elevation of the reaction temperature to 503 K enhanced the rate of formation of zinc formate species. Significantly these formate species decomposed at 573 K almost entirely to CO2 and H2. Even after exposure of CO2-H2 or CO-CO2-H2 mixtures to highly defected ZnO/SiO2 catalyst, the formate species produced still decomposed to give CO2 and H2. It was concluded that carboxylate species which were formed at oxygen anion vacancies on polar Zn planes were not significantly hydrogenated to formate. Consequently it was proposed that the non-polar planes on zinc oxide contained sites which were specific for the synthesis of methanol. The interaction of CO2 and H2 with reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst at 393 K gave copper formate species in addition to substantial quantities of formate created at interfacial sites between copper and zinc oxide. It was deduced that interfacial formate species were produced from the hydrogenation of interfacial bidentate carbonate structures. The relevance of interfacial formate species in the methanol synthesis reaction is discussed. Experiments concerning the reaction of CO2-H2 with physical mixtures of Cu/SiO2 and ZnO/SiO2 gave results which were simply characteristic of the individual components. By careful consideration of previous data a detailed proposal regarding the role of spillover hydrogen is outlined. Admission of CO to a gaseous CO2-H2 feedstock resulted in a considerably diminished amount of formate species on copper. This was ascribed to a combination of over-reduction of the surface and site-blockage.

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.

The clinical effectiveness of interventions to assist perioperative temperature management for women undergoing Cesarean Section : a systematic review

Background Women undergoing Cesarean Section (CS) are vulnerable to the adverse effects associated with perioperative core temperature drop, in part due to the tendency for CS to be performed under neuraxial anesthesia, blood and fluid loss, and vasodilation. Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (IPH) is a common condition that affects patients undergoing surgery of all specialties and is detrimental to all age groups, including neonates. Previous systematic reviews on IPH prevention largely focus on either adult or all ages populations, and have mainly overlooked pregnant or CS patients as a distinct group. Not all recommendations made by systematic reviews targeting all adult patients may be transferable to CS patients. Alternative, effective methods for preventing or managing hypothermia in this group would be valuable. Objectives To synthesize the best available evidence in relation to preventing and/or treating hypothermia in mothers after CS surgery. Types of participants Adult patients over the age of 18 years, of any ethnic background, with or without co-morbidities, undergoing any mode of anesthesia for any type of CS (emergency or planned) at healthcare facilities who have received interventions to limit or manage perioperative core heat loss were included. Types of intervention(s) Active or passive warming methods versus usual care or placebo, that aim to limit or manage core heat loss as applied to women undergoing CS were included. Types of studies Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that met the inclusion criteria, with reduction of perioperative hypothermia a primary or secondary outcome were considered. Types of outcomes Primary outcome: maternal core temperature measured during the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative phases of care Secondary outcomes: newborn core temperature at birth, umbilical pH obtained immediately after birth, Apgar scores, length of Post Anesthetic Care Unit (PACU) stay, maternal thermal comfort. Search strategy A comprehensive search was undertaken of the following databases from their inception until May 2012: ProQuest, Web of Science, Scopus, Dissertation and Theses PQDT (via ProQuest), Current Contents, CENTRAL, Mednar, OpenGrey, Clinical Trials. There were no language restrictions. Methodological quality Retrieved papers were assessed for methodological quality by two independent reviewers prior to inclusion using JBI software. Disagreements were resolved via consultation with the third reviewer. An assessment of quality of the included papers was also made in relation to five key quality factors. Data collection Two independent reviewers extracted data from the included papers using a previously piloted customized data extraction tool. Results 12 studies with a combined total of 719 participants were included. Three broad intervention groups were identified; intravenous (IV) fluid warming, warming devices, leg wrapping. IV fluid warming, whether administered intraoperatively or preoperatively, was found to be effective at maintaining maternal (but not neonatal) temperature and preventing shivering, but does not improve thermal comfort. The effectiveness of IV fluid warming on Apgar scores and umbilical pH remains unclear. Warming devices, including forced air warming and under body carbon polymer mattresses, were effective at preventing hypothermia and reduced shivering, however were most effective if applied preoperatively. The effectiveness of warming devices to improve thermal comfort remains unclear. Preoperative forced air warming appears to aid maintenance of neonatal temperature, while intraoperative forced air warming does not. Forced air warming was not effective at improving Apgar scores and the effects for umbilical pH remain unclear. Conclusions Intravenous fluid warming, by any method, improves maternal temperature and reduces shivering for women undergoing CS. Preoperative body warming devices also improve maternal temperature, in addition to reducing shivering.

Low temperature pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse at atmospheric pressure using mixtures of ethylene carbonate and ethylene glycol

A low temperature lignocellulose pretreatment process was developed using acid-catalysed mixtures of alkylene carbonate and alkylene glycol. Pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse with mixtures of ethylene carbonate (EC) and ethylene glycol (EG) was more effective than that with mixtures of propylene carbonate (PC) and propylene glycol (PG). These mixtures were more effective than the individual components in making bagasse cellulose more amenable to cellulase digestion. Glucan digestibilities of ≥87% could be achieved with a wide range of EC to EG ratios from 9:1 to 1:1 (w/w). Pretreatment of bagasse by the EC/EG mixture with a ratio of 4:1 in the presence of 1.2% H2SO4 at 90 °C for 30 min led to the highest glucan enzymatic digestibility of 93%. The high glucan digestibilities obtained under these acidic conditions were due to (a) the ability of alkylene carbonate to cause significant biomass size reduction, (b) the ability of alkylene glycol to cause biomass defibrillation, (c) the ability of alkylene carbonate and alkylene glycol to remove xylan and lignin, and (d) the magnified above attributes in the mixtures of alkylene carbonate and alkylene glycol.

Effect of temperature distribution on predicting quality of microwave dehydrated food

During food drying, many other changes occur simultaneously, resulting in an improved overall quality. Among the quality attributes, the structure and its corresponding color influence directly or indirectly other properties of food. In addition, these quality attributes are affected by process conditions, material components and the raw structure of the foodstuff. In this work, the temperature distribution within food materials during microwave drying has been taken into consideration to observe its role in color modification. In order to determine the temperature distribution of microwave-dried food (apple), a thermal imaging camera has been used. The image acquired from the digital camera has been analysed using image J software in order to get the color change of fresh and dried apple. The results show that temperature distribution plays an important role in determining the quality of the food. The thermal imaging camera was deployed to observe the temperature distribution within food materials during drying. It is clearly observed from the higher value of (ERGB =102) and the uneven color change that uneven temperature distribution can influence customer perceptions of the quality of dried food. Simulation of a mathematical model of temperature distribution during microwave drying can make it possible to predict the colour and texture of the microwaved food.

Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Temperature sensitivity in Indigenous Australians

"To the Editor: Indigenous people face challenges that may make them more sensitive to extreme temperatures. These include poor health, inadequate infrastructure, and poverty.1 Few studies have examined the effects of extreme temperatures on Indigenous people2 or have considered the possible role of body mass in sensitivity to extreme temperatures..."

Evolution of epitaxial graphene layers on 3C SiC/Si (111) as a function of annealing temperature in UHV

The growth of graphene on SiC/Si substrates is an appealing alternative to the growth on bulk SiC for cost reduction and to better integrate the material with Si based electronic devices. In this paper, we present a complete in-situ study of the growth of epitaxial graphene on 3C SiC (111)/Si (111) substrates via high temperature annealing (ranging from 1125˚C to 1375˚C) in ultra high vacuum (UHV). The quality and number of graphene layers have been thoroughly investigated by using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), while the surface characterization have been studied by scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM). Ex-situ Raman spectroscopy measurements confirm our findings, which demonstrate the exponential dependence of the number of graphene layer from the annealing temperature.