A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.

Sustainability indicators for environmental management and decision making

The general objective of this research is to explore theories and methodologies of sustainability indicators, environmental management and decision making disciplines with the operational purpose of producing scientific, robust and relevant information for supporting system understanding and decision making in real case studies. Several tools have been applied in order to increase the understanding of socio-ecological systems as well as providing relevant information on the choice between alternatives. These tools have always been applied having in mind the complexity of the issues and the uncertainty tied to the partial knowledge of the systems under study. Two case studies with specific application to performances measurement (environmental performances in the case of the K8 approach and sustainable development performances in the case of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy) and a case study about the selection of sustainable development indicators amongst Municipalities in Scotland, are discussed in the first part of the work. In the second part of the work, the common denominator among subjects consists in the application of spatial indices and indicators to address operational problems in land use management within the territory of the Ravenna province (Italy). The main conclusion of the thesis is that a ‘perfect’ methodological approach which always produces the best results in assessing sustainability performances does not exist. Rather, there is a pool of correct approaches answering different evaluation questions, to be used when methodologies fit the purpose of the analysis. For this reason, methodological limits and conceptual assumptions as well as consistency and transparency of the assessment, become the key factors for assessing the quality of the analysis.

Teoria dei giochi e Multi-criteria decision-making per reti mobili Ad-hoc: un protocollo di routing

Nell'elaborato si analizzano aspetti della teoria dei giochi e della multi-criteria decision-making. La riflessione serve a proporre le basi per un nuovo modello di protocollo di routing in ambito Mobile Ad-hoc Networks. Questo prototipo mira a generare una rete che riesca a gestirsi in maniera ottimale grazie ad un'acuta tecnica di clusterizzazione. Allo stesso tempo si propone come obiettivo il risparmio energetico e la partecipazione collaborativa di tutti i componenti.

The Impact Of Inward Licensing On New Venture’s Performance. Is inward licensing a winning strategy?

The original idea of the thesis draws on interrelated assumptions: 1) among the tools used, in the markets for technology, for the acquisition of external knowledge, the licensing agreements are acknowledged as one of the most important contractual mechanisms; 2) the liabilities of newness and the liabilities of smallness force new venture to strongly rely on external knowledge sources. Albeit the relevance of this topic, little attention has been paid so far to its investigation, especially in the licensing context; 3) nowadays there is an increasing trend in licensing practices, but the literature on markets for technology focuses almost exclusively on the incentives and rationales that foster firms’ decisions to trade their technologies, under-investigating the role of the acquiring firm, the licensee, overlooking the demand side of the market. Therefore, the thesis investigates the inward licensing phenomenon within the context of new ventures. The main questions that new venture licensee has to address if it decides to undertake an inward licensing strategy, can be summarized as follows: 1) Is convenient for a new venture to choose, as initial technology strategy, the implementation of an inward licensing ? 2) Does this decision affect its survival probabilities? 3) Does the age, at which a new venture becomes a licensee, affect its innovative capabilities? Is it better to undertake a licensing-in strategy soon after founding or to postpone this strategy until the new venture has accumulated significant resources? The findings suggest that new ventures licensees survive less than their non-licensee counterparts; the survival rates are directly connected to the time taken by firms to reach the market;being engaged in licensing-in deals some years after its inception allows a new venture licensee to increase its subsequent capacity to produce innovations.

Next-Generation Sequencing-Based Mutations Scanning Strategy of the BCR-ABL Kinase Domain in Patients with PhiladelPhia-Chromosome Positive Leukemias Treated with Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors

In chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients resistant to tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), BCR-ABL kinase domain mutation status is an essential component of the therapeutic decision algorithm. The recent development of Ultra-Deep Sequencing approach (UDS) has opened the way to a more accurate characterization of the mutant clones surviving TKIs conjugating assay sensitivity and throughput. We decided to set-up and validated an UDS-based for BCR-ABL KD mutation screening in order to i) resolve qualitatively and quantitatively the complexity and the clonal structure of mutated populations surviving TKIs, ii) study the dynamic of expansion of mutated clones in relation to TKIs therapy, iii) assess whether UDS may allow more sensitive detection of emerging clones, harboring critical 2GTKIs-resistant mutations predicting for an impending relapse, earlier than SS. UDS was performed on a Roche GS Junior instrument, according to an amplicon sequencing design and protocol set up and validated in the framework of the IRON-II (Interlaboratory Robustness of Next-Generation Sequencing) International consortium.Samples from CML and Ph+ ALL patients who had developed resistance to one or multiple TKIs and collected at regular time-points during treatment were selected for this study. Our results indicate the technical feasibility, accuracy and robustness of our UDS-based BCR-ABL KD mutation screening approach. UDS was found to provide a more accurate picture of BCR-ABL KD mutation status, both in terms of presence/absence of mutations and in terms of clonal complexity and showed that BCR-ABL KD mutations detected by SS are only the “tip of iceberg”. In addition UDS may reliably pick 2GTKIs-resistant mutations earlier than SS in a significantly greater proportion of patients.The enhanced sensitivity as well as the possibility to identify low level mutations point the UDS-based approach as an ideal alternative to conventional sequencing for BCR-ABL KD mutation screening in TKIs-resistant Ph+ leukemia patients

Balloon Aortic Valvuloplasty as Bridge-to-Decision in High Risk Patients with Severe Aortic Valve Stenosis

Background. A sizable group of patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) can undergo neither surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) nor transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) because of clinical contraindications. The aim of this study was to assess the potential role of balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) as a “bridge-to-decision” in selected patients with severe AS and potentially reversible contraindications to definitive treatment. Methods. We retrospectively enrolled 645 patients who underwent first BAV at our Institution between July 2007 and December 2012. Of these, the 202 patients (31.2%) who underwent BAV as bridge-to-decision (BTD) requiring clinical re-evaluation represented our study population. BTD patients were further subdivided in 5 groups: low left ventricular ejection fraction; mitral regurgitation grade ≥3; frailty; hemodynamic instability; comorbidity. The main objective of the study was to evaluate how BAV influenced the final treatment strategy in the whole BTD group and in its single specific subgroups. Results. Mean logistic EuroSCORE was 23.5±15.3%, mean age was 81±7 years. Mean transaortic gradient decreased from 47±17 mmHg to 33±14 mmHg. Of the 193 patients with BTD-BAV who received a second heart team evaluation, 72.5% were finally deemed eligible for definitive treatment (25.4%for AVR; 47.2% for TAVI): respectively, 96.7% of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction recovery; 70.5% of patients with mitral regurgitation reduction; 75.7% of patients who underwent BAV in clinical hemodynamic instability; 69.2% of frail patients and 68% of patients who presented relevant comorbidities. 27.5% of the study population was deemed ineligible for definitive treatment and treated with standard therapy/repeated BAV. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%, cerebrovascular accident occurred in 1% and overall vascular complications were 4% (0.5% major; 3.5% minor). Conclusions. Balloon aortic valvuloplasty should be considered as bridge-to-decision in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis who cannot be immediate candidates for definitive percutaneous or surgical treatment.

90 Nb: potential radionuclide for application in immuno-PET : development of appropriate production strategy and first in vivo evaluation of 90 Nb-labeled monoclonal antibody

Die Nuklearmedizin ist ein modernes und effektives Werkzeug zur Erkennung und Behandlung von onkologischen Erkrankungen. Molekulare Bildgebung, die auf dem Einsatz von Radiopharmaka basiert, beinhaltet die Einzel-Photonen-Emissions-Tomographie (SPECT) und Positronenemissions¬tomographie (PET) und ermöglicht die nicht-invasive Visualisierung von Tumoren auf nano-und picomolarer Ebene.rnDerzeit werden viele neue Tracer für die genauere Lokalisierung von kleinen Tumoren und Metastasen eingeführt und hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung untersucht. Die meisten von ihnen sind Protein-basierte Biomoleküle, die die Natur selbst als Antigene für die Tumorzellen produziert. Dabei spielen Antikörper und Antikörper-Fragmente eine wichtige Rolle in der Tumor-Diagnostik und Behandlung. Die PET-Bildgebung mit Antikörpern und Antikörperfragmenten bezeichnet man als immuno-PET. Ein wichtiger Aspekt hierbei ist, dass entsprechende Radiopharmaka benötigt werden, deren Halbwertszeit mit der Halbwertszeit der Biomoleküle korreliert ist.rnIn neueren Arbeiten wird 90Nb als potenzieller Kandidat für die Anwendung in der immuno-PET vorgeschlagen. Seine Halbwertszeit von 14,6 Stunden ist geeignet für die Anwendung mit Antikörperfragmenten und einige intakten Antikörpern. 90Nb hat eine relativ hohen Anteil an Positronenemission von 53% und eine optimale Energie für die β+-Emission von 0,35 MeV, die sowohl eine hohe Qualität der Bildgebung als auch eine niedrige Aktivitätsmenge des Radionuklids ermöglicht.rnErsten grundlegende Untersuchungen zeigten: i) dass 90Nb in ausreichender Menge und Reinheit durch Protonen-Bombardierung des natürlichen Zirkonium Targets produziert, ii) aus dem Targetmaterial in entsprechender radiochemischer Reinheit isoliert und iii) zur Markierung des monoklonalen Antikörpers (Rituximab) verwendet werden kann und iv) dieser 90Nb-markierte mAb eine hohe in vitro Stabilität besitzt. Desweiteren wurde eine alternative und schnelle Abtrennungsmethode entwickelt, die es erlaubt 90Nb, mit einer geeigneten radiochemischen und radionuklidischen Reinheit für eine anschließende Markierung von Biomolekülen in einer Stunde zu aufzureinigen. Schließlich wurden erstmals 90Nb-markierte Biomolekülen in vivo untersucht. Desweiteren wurden auch Experimente durchgeführt, um den optimalen bifunktionellen Chelatbildner (BFC) für 90Niob zu finden. Mehrere BFC wurden hinsichtlich Komplexbildung mit NbV untersucht. Desferrioxamin (Df) erwies sich als geeignetster Chelator für 90Nb. Der monoklonale Antikörper Bevacizumab (Avastin®) wurde mit 90Nb markiert und eine Biodistributionsstudie und eine PET-Untersuchung durchgeführt. Alle diese Ergebnisse zeigten, dass 90Nb ein vielversprechendes Radionuklid für die Immuno-PET ist, welches sogar für weitere kommerzielle Anwendungen in der klinischen Routine geeignet zu sein scheint.rn

Reduction of Transient Particulate Matter Spikes with Decision Tree Based Control

Decision trees have been proposed as a basis for modifying table based injection to reduce transient particulate spikes during the turbocharger lag period. It has been shown that decision trees can detect particulate spikes in real time. In well calibrated electronically controlled diesel engines these spikes are narrow and are encompassed by a wider NOx spike. Decision trees have been shown to pinpoint the exact location of measured opacity spikes in real time thus enabling targeted PM reduction with near zero NOx penalty. A calibrated dimensional model has been used to demonstrate the possible reduction of particulate matter with targeted injection pressure pulses. Post injection strategy optimized for near stoichiometric combustion has been shown to provide additional benefits. Empirical models have been used to calculate emission tradeoffs over the entire FTP cycle. An empirical model based transient calibration has been used to demonstrate that such targeted transient modifiers are more beneficial at lower engine-out NOx levels.

Management of uncomplicated varicose veins - a case vignette for a clinical decision proposal

Venous disorder is common in the general population. Uncomplicated varicose veins represent a significant proportion of the disease burden, and can impact considerably on quality of life, producing a wide spectrum of symptoms. Little is known about the natural course of the disease at this stage and the treatment strategy employed is often not based on robust scientific evidence. The aim of this article is to elucidate the options to manage uncomplicated varicose veins. There are likely to be significant geographic differences in the treatment strategy employed, and it is hoped that we will arouse discussion among physicians regarding the management of this very common medical condition. The reader will be asked for their preferred treatment choice for a given clinical case vignette.

Spike-based decision learning of nash equilibria in two-player games

Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic) and mixed (stochastic) Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD)-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

Decision-making in amnesia: do advantageous decisions require conscious knowledge of previous behavioural choices?

Previous work has reported that in the Iowa gambling task (IGT) advantageous decisions may be taken before the advantageous strategy is known [Bechara, A., Damasio, H., Tranel, D., ; Damasio, A. R. (1997). Deciding advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy. Science, 275, 1293-1295]. In order to test whether explicit memory is essential for the acquisition of a behavioural preference for advantageous choices, we measured behavioural performance and skin conductance responses (SCRs) in five patients with dense amnesia following damage to the basal forebrain and orbitofrontal cortex, six amnesic patients with damage to the medial temporal lobe or the diencephalon, and eight control subjects performing the IGT. Across 100 trials healthy participants acquired a preference for advantageous choices and generated large SCRs to high levels of punishment. In addition, their anticipatory SCRs to disadvantageous choices were larger than to advantageous choices. However, this dissociation occurred much later than the behavioural preference for advantageous alternatives. In contrast, though exhibiting discriminatory autonomic SCRs to different levels of punishment, 9 of 11 amnesic patients performed at chance and did not show differential anticipatory SCRs to advantageous and disadvantageous choices. Further, the magnitude of anticipatory SCRs did not correlate with behavioural performance. These results suggest that the acquisition of a behavioural preference--be it for advantageous or disadvantageous choices--depends on the memory of previous reinforcements encountered in the task, a capacity requiring intact explicit memory.

Targeting the conversion of ceramide to sphingosine 1-phosphate as a novel strategy for cancer therapy

Sphingolipids not only function as structural components of cell membranes but also act as signaling molecules to regulate fundamental cellular responses, such as cell death and differentiation, proliferation and certain types of inflammation. Particularly the cellular balance between ceramide and sphingosine 1-phosphate seems to be crucial for a cell's decision to either undergo apoptosis or proliferate, two events which are implicated in tumor development and growth. Whereas ceramide possesses proapoptotic capacity in many cell types, sphingosine 1-phosphate acts as a counterplayer able to induce cell proliferation and protect cells from undergoing apoptosis. Therefore, tipping the balance in favour of ceramide production, i.e. by inhibiting ceramidase or sphingosine kinase activities has potential to support its proapoptotic action and hence represents a promising rational approach to effective cancer therapy. This review highlights most recent data on the regulation of cellular sphingolipid formation and their potential implication in tumor development, and provides perspectives for their use as targets in molecular intervention therapy.

Maternal modulation of natal dispersal in a passerine bird: An adaptive strategy to cope with parasitism?

The decision of how far to disperse from the natal territory has profound and long-lasting consequences for young animals, yet the optimal dispersal behavior often depends on environmental factors that are difficult or impossible to assess by inexperienced juveniles. Natural selection thus favors mechanisms that allow the adaptive and flexible adjustment of the offspring's dispersal behavior by their parents via either paternal or maternal effects. Here we show that different dispersal strategies maximize the reproductive success of young great tits (Parus major) originating from a parasite-infested or a parasite-free nest and demonstrate that differential transfer of maternal yolk androgens in response to parasitism can result in a modification of the offspring's dispersal behavior that appears adaptive. It demonstrates that prenatal maternal effects are an important yet so far neglected determinant of natal dispersal and highlights the potential importance of maternal effects in mediating coevolutionary processes in host-parasite systems.

KNOWLEDGE-BASED MANUFACTURING STRATEGY AND METHODS FOR FOUNDRIES

The European foundry business is a traditional less RTD intensive industry which is dominated by SMEs and which forms a significant part of Europe’s manufacturing industry. The efficient design and manufacturing of cast components and corresponding tooling is a crucial success factor for these companies. To achieve this, information and knowledge around the design, planning and manufacturing of cast components needs to be accessible in a fast and structured way.

Lessons from Ellen: A Case Study Investigation of Comprehension Strategy Instruction in Action

In the past ten years, reading comprehension instruction has received significant attention from educational researchers. Drawing on studies from cognitive psychology, reader response theory, and language arts research, current best practice in reading comprehension instruction is characterized by a strategies approach in which students are taught to think like proficient readers who visualize, infer, activate schema, question, and summarize as they read. Studies investigating the impact of comprehension strategy instruction on student achievement in reading suggest that when implemented consistently the intervention has a positive effect on achievement. Research also shows, however, that few teachers embrace this approach to reading instruction despite its effectiveness, even when the conditions for substantive professional development (i.e. prolonged engagement, support, resources, time) are present. The interpretive case study reported in this dissertation examined the year-long experience of one fourth grade teacher, Ellen, as she leanled about comprehension strategy instruction and attempted to integrate the approach in her reading program. The goal of the study was to extend current understanding of the factors that support or inhibit an individual teacher's instructional decision making. The research explored how Ellen's academic preparation, beliefs about reading comprehension instruction, and attitudes toward teacher-student interaction influenced her efforts to employ comprehension strategy instruction. Qualitative methods were the basis of this study's research design. The primary methods for collecting data included pre- and post-interviews, field notes from classroom observations and staff development sessions, infonnal interviews, e-mail correspondence, and artifacts such as reading assignments, professional writing, school newsletters, and photographs of the classroom. Transcripts from interviews, as well as field notes, e-mail, and artifacts, were analyzed according to grounded theory's constant-comparative method. The results of the study suggest that three factors were pivotal in Ellen's successful implementation of reading strategy instruction: Pedagogical beliefs, classroom relationships, and professional community. Research on instructional change generally focuses on issues of time, resources, feedback, and follow-through. The research reported here recognizes the importance of these components, but expands contemporary thinking by showing how, in Ellen's case, a teacher's existing theories, her relationship with her students, and her professional interaction with peers impact instructional decisions.