A New Principal Curve Algorithm for Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis

This paper emerged from work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 and proposes a method of determining principal curves, using spline functions, in principal component analysis (PCA) for the representation of non-linear behaviour in process monitoring. Although principal curves are well established, they are difficult to implement in practice if a large number of variables are analysed. The significant contribution of this paper is that the proposed method has minimal complexity, assuming simple spline geometry, thus enabling efficient computation. The paper provides a foundation for further work where multiple curves may be required to represent underlying non-linear information in complex data.

Asynchrony between the Greenland ice core chronology and the radiocarbon calibration curve? Evidence from Irish bogs

A significant cold event, deduced from the Greenland ice cores, took place between 8200 and 8000 cal. BP. Modeling of the event suggests that higher northern latitudes would have also experienced considerable decreases in precipitation and that Ireland would have witnessed one of the greatest depressions. However, no well-dated proxy record exists from the British Isles to test the model results. Here we present independent evidence for a phase of major pine recruitment on Irish bogs at around 8150 cal. BP. Dendrochronological dating of subfossil trees from three sites reveal synchronicity in germination across the region, indicative of a regional forcing, and allows for high-precision radiocarbon based dating. The inner-rings of 40% of all samples from the north of Ireland dating to the period 8500-7500 cal. BP fall within a 25-yr window. The concurrent colonization of pine on peatland is interpreted as drier conditions in the region and provides the first substantive proxy data in support of a significant hydrological change in the north of Ireland accompanying the 8.2 ka event. The dating uncertainties associated with the Irish pine record and the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) do not allow for any overlap between the two. Our results indicate that the discrepancy could be an artifact of dating inaccuracy, and support a similar claim by Lohne et al. (2013) for the Younger Dryas boundaries. If real, this asynchrony will most likely have affected interpretations of previous proxy alignments.

Rapid single-nucleotide polymorphism-based identification of clonal Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates from patients with cystic fibrosis by the use of real-time PCR and high-resolution melting curve analysis

Pseudomonas aeruginosa genotyping relies mainly upon DNA fingerprinting methods, which can be subjective, expensive and time-consuming. The detection of at least three different clonal P. aeruginosa strains in patients attending two cystic fibrosis (CF) centres in a single Australian city prompted the design of a non-gel-based PCR method to enable clinical microbiology laboratories to readily identify these clonal strains. We designed a detection method utilizing heat-denatured P. aeruginosa isolates and a ten-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profile. Strain differences were detected by SYBR Green-based real-time PCR and high-resolution melting curve analysis (HRM10SNP assay). Overall, 106 P. aeruginosa sputum isolates collected from 74 patients with CF, as well as five reference strains, were analysed with the HRM10SNP assay, and the results were compared with those obtained by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The HRM10SNP assay accurately identified all 45 isolates as members of one of the three major clonal strains characterized by PFGE in two Brisbane CF centres (Australian epidemic strain-1, Australian epidemic strain-2 and P42) from 61 other P. aeruginosa strains from Australian CF patients and two representative overseas epidemic strain isolates. The HRM10SNP method is simple, is relatively inexpensive and can be completed in <3 h. In our setting, it could be made easily available for clinical microbiology laboratories to screen for local P. aeruginosa strains and to guide infection control policies. Further studies are needed to determine whether the HRM10SNP assay can also be modified to detect additional clonal strains that are prevalent in other CF centres.

Sector analysis provides additional spatial information on the permanent prostate brachytherapy learning curve

PURPOSE: To evaluate the permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB) learning curve using postimplant multisector dosimetric analysis and to assess the correlation between sector -specific dosimetry and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs).

METHODS AND METHODS: First 200 patients treated with (125)I PPB monotherapy (145 Gy) at a single institution were assessed. Postimplant dosimetry (PID) using CT was evaluated for whole prostate (global) and 12 sectors, assessing minimum dose to 90% of prostate (D90) and dose to 0.1 cm(3) of rectum (D0.1cc). Global and sector PID results were evaluated to investigate changes in D90 with case number. Urinary and bowel PROMs were assessed using the International Prostate Symptom Score and the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite questionnaire. The correlation between global and individual sector PID and urinary/bowel PROMs was also evaluated.

RESULTS: Linear regression confirmed a significant improvement in global D90 with case number (r(2) = 0.20; p = 0.001) at a rate of 0.11 Gy/case. Postimplant D90 of base sectors increased at a rate of 0.11-0.15 Gy/case (p = 0.0001) and matched global improvement. The regression lines of midgland and apex sectors were significantly different from global D90 (p = 0.01). Posterior midgland sectors showed a significant reduction in D90 with case number at a rate of 0.13-0.19 Gy/case (p = 0.01). Dose to posterior midgland sectors correlated with rectal D0.1cc dose but not bowel PROMs. Dose to posterior midgland sectors correlated with urinary International Prostate Symptom Score change, which was not apparent when global D90 alone was considered.

CONCLUSIONS: Sector analysis provided increased spatial information regarding the PPB learning curve. Furthermore, sector analysis correlated with urinary PROMs and rectal dose.

LSQ14bdq: a type Ic Super-luminous Supernova with a double-peaked light curve

We present data for LSQ14bdq, a hydrogen-poor super-luminous supernova (SLSN) discovered by the La Silla QUEST survey and classified by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects. The spectrum and light curve are very similar to slow-declining SLSNe such as PTF12dam. However, detections within ∼1 day after explosion show a bright and relatively fast initial peak, lasting for ∼15 days, prior to the usual slow rise to maximum light. The broader, main peak can be fit with either central engine or circumstellar interaction models. We discuss the implications of the precursor peak in the context of these models. It is too bright and narrow to be explained as a normal ⁵⁶Ni-powered SN, and we suggest that interaction models may struggle to fit the two peaks simultaneously. We propose that the initial peak may arise from the post-shock cooling of extended stellar material, and reheating by a central engine drives the second peak. In this picture, we show that an explosion energy of ∼2 × 10⁵² erg and a progenitor radius of a few hundred solar radii would be required to power the early emission. The competing engine models involve rapidly spinning magnetars (neutron stars) or fallback onto a central black hole. The prompt energy required may favor the black hole scenario. The bright initial peak may be difficult to reconcile with a compact Wolf-Rayet star as a progenitor since the inferred energies and ejected masses become unphysical.

Brightness variation distributions among main belt asteroids from sparse light curve sampling with Pan-STARRS 1

The rotational state of asteroids is controlled by various physical mechanisms including collisions, internal damping and the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. We have analysed the changes in magnitude between consecutive detections of ∼ 60,000 asteroids measured by the PanSTARRS 1 survey during its first 18 months of operations. We have attempted to explain the derived brightness changes physically and through the application of a simple model. We have found a tendency toward smaller magnitude variations with decreasing diameter for objects of 1 < D < 8 km. Assuming the shape distribution of objects in this size range to be independent of size and composition our model suggests a population with average axial ratios 1: 0.85 ± 0.13: 0.71 ± 0.13, with larger objects more likely to have spin axes perpendicular to the orbital plane.

SN 2011fu: a type IIb supernova with a luminous double-peaked light curve

We present optical and near-infrared observations of the type IIb supernova (SN) 2011fu from a few days to similar to 300 d after explosion. The SN presents a double-peaked light curve (LC) similar to that of SN 1993J, although more luminous and with a longer cooling phase after the primary peak. The spectral evolution is also similar to SN 1993J's, with hydrogen dominating the spectra to similar to 40 d, then helium gaining strength, and nebular emission lines appearing from similar to 60 d post-explosion. The velocities derived from the P-Cygni absorptions are overall similar to those of other type IIb SNe. We have found a strong similarity between the oxygen and magnesium line profiles at late times, which suggests that these lines are forming at the same location within the ejecta. The hydrodynamical modelling of the pseudo-bolometric LC and the observed photospheric velocities suggest that SN 2011fu was the explosion of an extended star (R similar to 450 R-circle dot), in which 1.3 x 10(51) erg of kinetic energy were released and 0.15 M-circle dot of Ni-56 were synthesized. In addition, a better reproduction of the observed early pseudo-bolometric LC is achieved if a more massive H-rich envelope than for other type IIb SNe is considered (0.3 M-circle dot). The hydrodynamical modelling of the LC and the comparison of our late-time spectra with nebular spectral models for type IIb SNe, point to a progenitor for SN 2011fu with a Zero Age Main Sequence (ZAMS) mass of 13-18 M-circle dot.

Possibility of designing catalysts beyond the traditional volcano curve: A theoretical framework for multi-phase surfaces

The current theory of catalyst activity in heterogeneous catalysis is mainly obtained from the study of catalysts with mono-phases, while most catalysts in real systems consist of multi-phases, the understanding of which is far short of chemists' expectation. Density functional theory (DFT) and micro-kinetics simulations are used to investigate the activities of six mono-phase and nine bi-phase catalysts, using CO hydrogenation that is arguably the most typical reaction in heterogeneous catalysis. Excellent activities that are beyond the activity peak of traditional mono-phase volcano curves are found on some bi-phase surfaces. By analyzing these results, a new framework to understand the unexpected activities of bi-phase surfaces is proposed. Based on the framework, several principles for the design of multi-phase catalysts are suggested. The theoretical framework extends the traditional catalysis theory to understand more complex systems.

Active design of tooth profiles using parabolic curve as the line of action

This paper proposes a method for the design of gear tooth profiles using parabolic curve as its line of action. A mathematical model, including the equation of the line of action, the equation of the tooth profile, and the equation of the conjugate tooth profile, is developed based on the meshing theory. The equation of undercutting condition is derived from the model. The influences of the two design parameters, that present the size (or shape) of the parabolic curve relative to the gear size, on the shape of tooth profiles and on the contact ratio are also studied through the design of an example drive. The strength, including the contact and the bending stresses, of the gear drive designed by using the proposed method is analyzed by an FEA simulation. A comparison of the above characteristics of the gear drive designed with the involute gear drive is also carried out in this work. The results confirm that the proposed design method is more flexible to control the shape of the tooth profile by changing the parameters of the parabola.

Evaluation of the Electric Vehicle Impact in the Power Demand Curve in a Smart Grid Environment

Smart grids with an intensive penetration of distributed energy resources will play an important role in future power system scenarios. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources brings new challenges, requiring an efficient management of those sources. Additional storage resources can be beneficially used to address this problem; the massive use of electric vehicles, particularly of vehicle-to-grid (usually referred as gridable vehicles or V2G), becomes a very relevant issue. This paper addresses the impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in system operation costs and in power demand curve for a distribution network with large penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) units. An efficient management methodology for EVs charging and discharging is proposed, considering a multi-objective optimization problem. The main goals of the proposed methodology are: to minimize the system operation costs and to minimize the difference between the minimum and maximum system demand (leveling the power demand curve). The proposed methodology perform the day-ahead scheduling of distributed energy resources in a distribution network with high penetration of DG and a large number of electric vehicles. It is used a 32-bus distribution network in the case study section considering different scenarios of EVs penetration to analyze their impact in the network and in the other energy resources management.

Principal component analysis of the yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Creation of an Age-Adjusted, Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry-Derived Trabecular Bone Score Curve for the Lumbar Spine in Non-Hispanic US White Women.

The trabecular bone score (TBS, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) is an index of bone microarchitecture texture extracted from anteroposterior dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry images of the spine. Previous studies have documented the ability of TBS of the spine to differentiate between women with and without fractures among age- and areal bone mineral density (aBMD)-matched controls, as well as to predict future fractures. In this cross-sectional analysis of data collected from 3 geographically dispersed facilities in the United States, we investigated age-related changes in the microarchitecture of lumbar vertebrae as assessed by TBS in a cohort of non-Hispanic US white American women. All subjects were 30 yr of age and older and had an L1-L4aBMDZ-score within ±2 SD of the population mean. Individuals were excluded if they had fractures, were on any osteoporosis treatment, or had any illness that would be expected to impact bone metabolism. All data were extracted from Prodigy dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry devices (GE-Lunar, Madison, WI). Cross-calibrations between the 3 participating centers were performed for TBS and aBMD. aBMD and TBS were evaluated for spine L1-L4 but also for all other possible vertebral combinations. To validate the cohort, a comparison between the aBMD normative data of our cohort and US non-Hispanic white Lunar data provided by the manufacturer was performed. A database of 619 non-Hispanic US white women, ages 30-90 yr, was created. aBMD normative data obtained from this cohort were not statistically different from the non-Hispanic US white Lunar normative data provided by the manufacturer (p = 0.30). This outcome thereby indirectly validates our cohort. TBS values at L1-L4 were weakly inversely correlated with body mass index (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.16) and not correlated with height. TBS values for all lumbar vertebral combinations decreased significantly with age. There was a linear decrease of 16.0% (-2.47 T-score) in TBS at L1-L4 between 45 and 90 yr of age (vs. -2.34 for aBMD). Microarchitectural loss rate increased after age 65 by 50% (-0.004 to -0.006). Similar results were obtained for other combinations of lumbar vertebra. TBS, an index of bone microarchitectural texture, decreases with advancing age in non-Hispanic US white women. Little change in TBS is observed between ages 30 and 45. Thereafter, a progressive decrease is observed with advancing age. The changes we observed in these American women are similar to that previously reported for a French population of white women (r(2) > 0.99). This reference database will facilitate the use of TBS to assess bone microarchitectural deterioration in clinical practice.

Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields