994 resultados para crop yield forecast


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Considerations on the interactions of P in the soil-plant system have a long history, but are still topical and not yet satisfactorily understood. One concern is the effect of liming before or after application of soluble sources on the crop yield and efficiency of available P under these conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of soil acidity on availability of P from a soluble source, based on plant growth and chemical extractants. Nine soil samples were incubated with a dose of 200 mg kg-1 P in soil with different levels of previously adjusted acidity (pH H2O 4.5; 5.0; 5.5; 6.0 and 6.5) and compared to soils without P application. After 40 days of soil incubation with a P source, each treatment was limed again so that all pH values were adjusted to 6.5 and then sorghum was planted. After the first and second liming the P levels were determined by the extractants Mehlich-1, Bray-1 and Resin, and the fractionated inorganic P forms. In general, the different acidity levels did not influence the P availability measured by plant growth and P uptake at the studied P dose. For some soils however these values increased or decreased according to the initial soil pH (from 4.5 to 6.5). Plant growth, P uptake and P extractable by Mehlich-1 and Bray-1 were significantly correlated, unlike resin-extractable P, at pH values raised to 6.5. These latter correlations were however significant before the second liming. The P contents extracted by Mehlich-1 and Bray-1 were significantly correlated with each other in the entire test range of soil acidity, even after adjusting pH to 6.5, besides depending on the soil buffering capacity for P. Resin was also sensitive to the properties that express the soil buffering capacity for P, but less clearly than Mehlich-1 and Bray-1. The application of triple superphosphate tended to increase the levels of P-Al, P-Fe and P-Ca and the highest P levels extracted by Bray-1 were due to a higher occurrence of P-Al and P-Fe in the soils.

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Soils of the coastal plains of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, are affected by salinization, which can hamper the establishment and development of crops in general, including rice. The application of high doses of KCl may aggravate the crop damage, due to the high saline content of this fertilizer. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of K fertilizer management on some properties of rice plant, grown in soils with different sodicity levels, and determine which attribute is best related to yield. The field study was conducted in four Albaqualfs with exchangeable Na percentages of 5.6, 9.0, 21 and 32 %. The management of KCl fertilizer consisted of the application of 90 kg ha-1 K2O broadcast, 90 kg ha-1 K2O in the row and 45 kg ha-1 K2O in the row + 45 kg ha-1 K2O at panicle initiation (PI). Plant density, dry matter evolution, height, SPAD (Soil Plant Analysis Development value indicating relative chlorophyll contents) index, tiller mass, 1,000-grain weight, panicle length and grain yield were evaluated. The plant density was damaged by application of K fertilizer in the row, especially at full dose (90 kg ha-1), at three sodicity levels, resulting in loss in biomass accumulation in later stages, affecting the crop yield, even at the lowest level of soil sodicity (5.6 %). All properties were correlated with yield; the highest positive correlation was found with plant density and shoot dry matter at full flowering, and a negative correlation with panicle length.

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Tillage systems are a key element of the technology of crop production, both with a view to crop yield and from the perspective of soil conservation and sustainability of the production system. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the effects of five tillage systems on the physical properties of a cohesive Yellow Argisol. The experiment was installed in the field on January 21, 2011 and lasted 260 days, in an area previously used as pasture with Brachiaria grass without liming or fertilization, but irrigated by a low pressure spray system. The treatments, in five replications and in a randomized block design, consisted of: 1) disk plow (twice) + disk harrow + ridge-furrow tillage (raising a ridge along the planting row), 135 days after transplanting (DP + RID); 2) disk plow (twice) + disk harrow (DP no RID); 3) subsoiler (SB); 4) disk plow (twice) + disk harrow + scarification with three shanks along the plant row (DP + SPR); and 5) disk plow (twice) + disk harrow + scarification with three shanks in the total area (DP + STA). In all tillage systems, furrows were mechanically opened for the papaya plants. After the treatments, the mechanical resistance to penetration was determined, followed by soil moisture, mean weight diameter (MWD), geometric mean diameter (GMD), bulk density (BD), macroporosity (Ma), microporosity (Mi), and number of fruits per plant. There were differences in penetration resistance (PR) between treatments. The subsoiler was more effective to decrease RP to a distance of 0.35 m from the plants, perpendicular to the plant row. The scarifier resulted in a lower PR than DP or SB, even at the depth of 0.40 m, and it was more effective at greater distances perpendicular to the plant. All tillage systems induced a PR between 2.0 and 3.0 MPa at the depth with the highest concentration of papaya tree roots (0-0.25 m), improving the physical conditions to this depth. There was no statistical difference among the treatments for BD, Ma, Mi, MWD, and GMD at a depth of 0.20 m. The disk plow changed the physical properties of the soil most intensely to a depth of 0.20 m. The use of scarification, reduced tillage with a forest subsoiler, or ridge-furrow tillage did not improve the physical properties in the rhizosphere. Reduced tillage with a forest subsoiler resulted in a lower number of fruits per plant than all other treatments, which did not differ from each other.

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In the south-central region of Brazil, there is a trend toward reducing the sugarcane inter-harvest period and increasing traffic of heavy harvesting machinery on soil with high water content, which may intensify the compaction process. In this study, we assessed the structural changes of a distroferric Red Latosol (Oxisol) by monitoring soil water content as a function of the Least Limiting Water Range (LLWR) and quantified its effects on the crop yield and industrial quality of the first ratoon crop of sugarcane cultivars with different maturation cycles. Three cultivars (RB 83-5054, RB 84-5210 and RB 86-7515) were subjected to four levels of soil compaction brought about by a differing number of passes of a farm tractor (T0 = soil not trafficked, T2 = 2 passes, T10 = 10 passes, and T20 = 20 passes of the tractor in the same place) in a 3 × 4 factorial arrangement with three replications. The deleterious effects on the soil structure from the farm machinery traffic were limited to the surface layer (0-10 cm) of the inter-row area of the ratoon crop. The LLWR dropped to nearly zero after 20 tractor passes between the cane rows. We detected differences among the cultivars studied; cultivar RB 86-7515 stood out for its industrial processing quality, regardless of the level of soil compaction. Monitoring of soil moisture in the crop showed exposure to water stress conditions, although soil compaction did not affect the production variables of the sugarcane cultivars. We thus conclude that the absence of traffic on the plant row maintained suitable soil conditions for plant development and may have offset the harmful effects of soil compaction shown by the high values for bulk density between the rows of the sugarcane cultivars.

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Quantification of soil physical quality (SPQ) and pore size distribution (PSD) can assist understanding of how changes in land management practices influence dynamics of soil structure, and this understanding could greatly improve the predictability of soil physical behavior and crop yield. The objectives of this study were to measure the SPQ index under two different land management practices (the continuous arable cropping system and natural bush fallow system), and contrast the effects of these practices on the structure of PSD using soil water retention data. Soil water retention curves obtained from a pressure chamber were fitted to van Genuchten’s equation, setting m (= 1-1/n). Although values for soil bulk density were high, soils under the continuous arable cropping system had good SPQ, and maintained the capacity to support root development. However, soils under the natural bush fallow system had a worse structure than the continuous arable system, with restrictions in available water capacity. These two management systems had different PSDs. Results showed the inferiority of the natural bush fallow system with no traffic restriction (which is the common practice) in relation to the continuous arable cropping system in regard to physical quality and structure.

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Brazilian soils have natural high chemical variability; thus, apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) can assist interpretation of crop yield variations. We aimed to select soil chemical properties with the best linear and spatial correlations to explain ECa variation in the soil using a Profiler sensor (EMP-400). The study was carried out in Sidrolândia, MS, Brazil. We analyzed the following variables: electrical conductivity - EC (2, 7, and 15 kHz), organic matter, available K, base saturation, and cation exchange capacity (CEC). Soil ECa was measured with the aid of an all-terrain vehicle, which crossed the entire area in strips spaced at 0.45 m. Soil samples were collected at the 0-20 cm depth with a total of 36 samples within about 70 ha. Classical descriptive analysis was applied to each property via SAS software, and GS+ for spatial dependence analysis. The equipment was able to simultaneously detect ECa at the different frequencies. It was also possible to establish site-specific management zones through analysis of correlation with chemical properties. We observed that CEC was the property that had the best correlation with ECa at 15 kHz.

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ABSTRACT Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a highly mycotrophic crop, and prior soil cover may affect the density of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMFs), as well as the composition of the AMFs community in the soil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence and the structure of AMFs communities in cassava grown after different cover crops, and the effect of the cover crop on mineral nutrition and cassava yield under an organic farming system. The occurrence and structure of the AMFs community was evaluated through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). A randomized block experimental design was used with four replications. Six different cover crop management systems before cassava were evaluated: black oats, vetch, oilseed radish, intercropped oats + vetch, intercropped oats + vetch + oilseed radish, plus a control (fallow) treatment mowed every 15 days. Oats as a single crop or oats intercropped with vetch or with oilseed radish increased AMFs inoculum potential in soil with a low number of propagules, thus benefiting mycorrhizal colonization of cassava root. The treatments did not affect the structure of AMFs communities in the soil since the AMFs communities were similar in cassava roots in succession to different cover crops. AMFs colonization was high despite high P availability in the soil. The cassava crop yield was above the regional average, and P levels in the leaves were adequate, regardless of which cover crop treatments were used. One cover crop cycle prior to the cassava crop was not enough to observe a significant response in variables, P in plant tissue, crop yield, and occurrence and structure of AMFs communities in the soil. In the cassava roots in succession, the plant developmental stage affected the groupings of the structure of the AMF community.

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ABSTRACT Univariate methods for diagnosing nutritional status such as the sufficiency range and the critical level for garlic crops are very susceptible to the effects of dilution and accumulation of nutrients. Therefore, this study aimed to establish bivariate and multivariate norms for this crop using the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) and Nutritional Composition Diagnosis (CND), respectively. The criteria used were nutritional status and the sufficiency range, and then the diagnoses were compared. The study was performed in the region of Alto Paranaíba, MG, Brazil, during the crop seasons 2012 and 2013. Samples comprised 99 commercial fields of garlic, cultivated with the cultivar “Ito” and mostly established in Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo Distrófico (Oxisol). Copper and K were the nutrients with the highest number of fields diagnosed as limiting by lack (LF) and limiting by excess (LE), respectively. The DRIS method presented greater tendency to diagnose LF, while the CND tended towards LE. The sufficiency range of both methods presented narrow ranges in relation to those suggested by the literature. Moreover, all ranges produced by the CND method provided narrower ranges than the DRIS method. The CND method showed better performance than DRIS in distinguishing crop yield covered by different diagnoses. Turning to the criterion of evaluation, the study found that nutritional status gave a better performance than sufficiency range in terms of distinguishing diagnoses regarding yield.

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ABSTRACT Applications of phosphogypsum (PG) provide nutrients to the soil and reduce Al3+ activity, favoring soil fertility and root growth, but allow Mg2+ mobilization through the soil profile, resulting in variations in the PG rate required to achieve the optimum crop yield. This study evaluated the effect of application rates and splitting of PG on soil fertility of a Typic Hapludox, as well as the influence on annual crops under no-tillage. Using a (4 × 3) + 1 factorial structure, the treatments consisted of four PG rates (3, 6, 9, and 12 Mg ha-1) and three split applications (P1 = 100 % in 2009; P2 = 50+50 % in 2009 and 2010; P3 = 33+33+33 % in 2009, 2010 and 2011), plus a control without PG. The soil was sampled six months after the last PG application, in stratified layers to a depth of 0.8 m. Corn, wheat and soybean were sown between November 2011 and December 2012, and leaf samples were collected for analysis when at least 50 % of the plants showed reproductive structures. The application of PG increased Ca2+ concentrations in all sampled soil layers and the soil pH between 0.2 and 0.8 m, and reduced the concentrations of Al3+ in all layers and of Mg2+ to a depth of 0.6 m, without any effect of splitting the applications. The soil Ca/Mg ratio increased linearly to a depth of 0.6 m with the rates and were found to be higher in the 0.0-0.1 m layer of the P2 and P3 treatments than without splitting (P1). Sulfur concentrations increased linearly by application rates to a depth of 0.8 m, decreasing in the order P3>P2>P1 to a depth of 0.4 m and were higher in the treatments P3 and P2 than P1 between 0.4-0.6 m, whereas no differences were observed in the 0.6-0.8 m layer. No effect was recorded for K, P and potential acidity (H+Al). The leaf Ca and S concentration increased, while Mg decreased for all crops treated with PG, and there was no effect of splitting the application. The yield response of corn to PG rates was quadratic, with the maximum technical efficiency achieved at 6.38 Mg ha-1 of PG, while wheat yield increased linearly in a growing season with a drought period. Soybean yield was not affected by the PG rate, and splitting had no effect on the yield of any of the crops. Phosphogypsum improved soil fertility in the profile, however, Mg2+ migrated downwards, regardless of application splitting. Splitting the PG application induced a higher Ca/Mg ratio in the 0.0-0.1 m layer and less S leaching, but did not affect the crop yield. The application rates had no effect on soybean yield, but were beneficial for corn and, especially, for wheat, which was affected by a drought period during growth.

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Field studies were conducted over 3 years in southeast Buenos Aires, Argentina, to determine the critical period of weed control in maize (Zea mays L.). The treatments consisted of two different periods of weed interference, a critical weed-free period, and a critical time of weed removal. The Gompertz and logistic equations were fitted to relative yields representing the critical weed-free and the critical time of weed removal, respectively. Accumulated thermal units were used to describe each period of weed-free or weed removal. The critical weed-free period and the critical time of weed removal ranged from 222 to 416 and 128 to 261 accumulated thermal units respectively, to prevent yield losses of 2.5%. Weed biomass proved to be inverse to the crop yield for all the years studied. When weeds competed with the crop from emergence, a large increase in weed biomass was achieved 10 days after crop emergence. However, few weed seedlings emerged and prospered after the 5-6 leaf maize stage (10-20 days after emergence).

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Field studies were established in Zavalla and Oliveros, Argentina, during four years in order to optimize Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers.) chemical control by means of the thermal calendar model in comparison with other criteria (weed height or days after sowing). The effect of three application dates of postemergence herbicides was determined by visual control, density of tillers originated from rhizome bud regrowth, and from crown and shoot bud regrowth, and soybean yield. Following the thermal calendar model criterion, applications during the second date afforded the best control. Weed height for the first date showed little variability between experiments but was highly variable in the second and third application dates, achieving in some cases values greater than 120 cm. For all years, no significant differences were detected for crop yield between the first and second application dates, and yields were always lower for the third date. The greatest rhizome bud regrowth was observed for the earliest application date and the highest crown and shoot bud regrowth was determined for the last application date. Parameters associated with control efficiency showed the best behaviour for the second date. However, plant height at this moment may interfere with herbicide application and the variability exhibited by this parameter highlights the risk of determining control timing using only one decision criterion.

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Genetic selection of maize hybrids is often conducted using high N rates during the breeding cycle. This procedure may either lead to the release of genotypes that present nitrogen luxury consumption or require a stronger N input to accomplish their yield potential. This work was carried out to evaluate the effects of N rates on grain yield and N use efficiency of hybrids cultivated in different decades in Southern Brazil. The trial was performed in Lages, Santa Catarina State. A split plot design was used. Hybrids Ag 12, Ag 28, Ag 303 and Ag 9012, released during the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's, respectively, were evaluated in the main plots. Nitrogen rates equivalent to 0, 50, 100 and 200 kg ha-1 were side-dressed in the split-plots when each hybrid had six fully expanded leaves. Modern-day hybrid Ag 9012 had higher grain yield than hybrids of earlier eras, regardless of N rates. Under high doses of N, the older hybrids Ag 12 and Ag 28 took up more N and presented higher values of shoot dry matter at flowering than Ag 9012. Nonetheless, they set less grains per ear which contributed to decrease their grain yield and N use efficiency.

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The objective of this work was to adapt the CROPGRO model, which is part of the DSSAT system, for simulating the cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) growth and development under soil and climate conditions of the Baixo Parnaíba region, Piauí State, Brazil. In the CROPGRO, only input parameters that define crop species, cultivars, and ecotype were changed in order to characterize the cowpea crop. Soil and climate files were created for the considered site. Field experiments without water deficit were used to calibrate the model. In these experiments, dry matter (DM), leaf area index (LAI), yield components and grain yield of cowpea (cv. BR 14 Mulato) were evaluated. The results showed good fit for DM and LAI estimates. The medium values of R² and medium absolute error (MAE) were, respectively, 0.95 and 264.9 kg ha-1 for DM, and 0.97 and 0.22 for LAI. The difference between observed and simulated values of plant phenology varied from 0 to 3 days. The model also presented good performance for yield components simulation, excluding 100-grain weight, for which the error ranged from 20.9% to 34.3%. Considering the medium values of crop yield in two years, the model presented an error from 5.6%.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the dependence of cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) seedlings on cotyledonary leaves for early growth and establishment. Sets of two uniform emerging seedlings were used to quantify the initial growth and dry matter accumulation, as well as the intensity and stage of cotyledon damage in seedling establishment and to determine cotyledon protein, amino acid and carbohydrate contributions to the growing seedling. Cucumber seedling establishment was found to be highly dependent on cotyledonary leaves. Root system establishment was highly dependent on the health of the aerial part. One cotyledon was enough to maintain aerial growth of seedlings after unfolding the first true leaf. Cucumber seedlings depended on both cotyledons to keep root system growth at least until leaf area was equivalent to cotyledon area. Covering one or both cotyledons of seedlings with one unfolded leaf increased carbohydrate content of uncovered cotyledon and leaves compared with control seedlings. Cucumber seedlings are highly dependent on cotyledonary leaves and aerial parts are less dependent than root system. Cotyledon damage at early stages of plant establishment would adversely impact crop yield by reducing plant density, an important yield component, or slowing down seedling growth and establishment.

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This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.