Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic crises and mortality: short and medium-term changes in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Crises de fronteira em aceleradores de Fermi

Pós-graduação em Física - IGCE

Polimorfismos nos genes TGFB e TNFA e sua relação com crises vaso-oclusivas e disfunção endotelial em pacientes com anemia falciforme

Pós-graduação em Genética - IBILCE

Outono em uma organização: convivendo com as crises

Pós-graduação em Psicologia - FCLAS

Crises cambiais e fragilidade financeira externa: uma interpretação minskyana aplicada à economia brasileira entre 1999 e 2013

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Crises de fronteira e estruturas complexas no espaço de parâmetros em um mapeamento dissipativo bidimensional

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sobre a idade das crises: as inter-relações sujeito-identidade-feminismo na pós-modernidade

This essay intends to think critically and theoretically on the interrelations among subject, identity, and Feminism in the context of Postmodernity, a context which will be herein denominated ―Age of Crises. These three aspects will be approached under a Historical perspective and put into question in a philosophical sight guided by Post-structuralistic theories, especially Derridian Deconstruction. In general, the main objective is to reach into a discussion about the undecidable inter-relation between Feminist thinking and Postmodernity, which is one of the configurations of the many contemporary crises. In order to do so, it will be necessary a previous discussion on the postmodern subject and its identity. This discussion will open up the possibility of contextualizing and discussing Feminism inside the intended objective. This discussion will be structured around the word ―crises which, in a compositional relation to the word ―age, will be taken as a synonym for ―Postmodernity and ―contemporary. ―Age of Crises, ―Postmodernity, ―contemporary, and ―Feminism will be words haunted by the phármakon phenomenon, a key aspect for Derridian Deconstruction, which will be the gravitational force that approximates and separates, in an undecidable relation, those signs.

Risk factors promoting hypertensive crises: evidence from a longitudinal study

Background Current knowledge about risk factors promoting hypertensive crisis originates from retrospective data. Therefore, potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis were assessed in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods Eighty-nine patients of the medical outpatient unit at the University Hospital of Bern (Bern, Switzerland) with previously diagnosed hypertension participated in this study. At baseline, 33 potential risk factors were assessed. All patients were followed-up for the outcome of hypertensive crisis. Cox regression models were used to detect relationships between risk factors and hypertensive crisis (defined as acute rise of systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥200mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥120mmHg). Results The mean duration of follow-up was 1.6 ± 0.3 years (range 1.0–2.4 years). Four patients (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. Thirteen patients (15.3%) experienced hypertensive crisis during follow-up. Several potential risk factors were significantly associated with hypertensive crisis: female sex, higher grades of obesity, the presence of a hypertensive or coronary heart disease, the presence of a somatoform disorder, a higher number of antihypertensive drugs, and nonadherence to medication. As measured by the hazard ratio, nonadherence was the most important factor associated with hypertensive crisis (hazard ratio 5.88, 95% confidence interval 1.59–21.77, P < 0.01). Conclusions This study identified several potential risk factors of hypertensive crisis. Results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that improvement of medical adherence in antihypertensive therapy would help to prevent hypertensive crises. However, larger studies are needed to assess potential confounding, other risk factors and the possibility of interaction between predictors.

Where Is "Home"? Value Conflicts, Identity Crises and the Formation of Cosmopolitan Identity in Myanmar Students Studying in the United States

Fully engaging in a new culture means translating oneself into a different set of cultural values, and many of the values can be foreign to the individual. The individual may face conflicting tensions between the psychological need to be a part of the new society and feelings of guilt or betrayal towards the former society, culture or self. Many international students from Myanmar, most of whom have little international experience, undergo this value and cultural translation during their time in American colleges. It is commonly assumed that something will be lost in the process of translation and that the students become more Westernized or never fit into both Myanmar and US cultures. However, the study of the narratives of the Myanmar students studying in the US reveals a more complex reality. Because individuals have multifaceted identities and many cultures and subcultures are fluctuating and intertwined with one another, the students¿ cross-cultural interactions can also help them acquire new ways of seeing things. Through their struggle to engage in the US college culture, many students display the theory of ¿cosmopolitanism¿ in their transformative identity formation process and thus, define and identify themselves beyond one set of cultural norms.

[Endocrine crises]

Pituitary apoplexy, diabetes insipidus, thyroid storm, myxedema coma, parathyrotoxic crisis, hypocalcemia tetany, pheochromocytoma and Addison crisis, diabetic ketoacidosis, diabetic hyperosmolar nonketotic coma, hypoglycemia and carcinoid crisis are the most important endocrine crises. Some of them are common, others very rare. All physicians nevertheless need to have at least a basic knowledge of all of them, since symptoms and signs of endocrine crises overlap with those of other severe disease states, and the failure to recognise endocrine crises as such and to begin rapidly the specific therapy can have fatal consequences.