Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits

This paper builds on Lucas (2000) and on Cysne (2003) to derive and order six alternative measures of the welfare costs of inflation (five of which already existing in the literature) for any vector of opportunity costs. The ordering of the functions is carried out for economies with or without interestbearing deposits. We provide examples and closed-form solutions for the log-log money demand both in the unidimensional and in the multidimensional setting (when interest-bearing monies are present). An estimate of the maximum relative error a researcher can incur when using any particular measure is also provided.

Using consumer search cost and loyalty to explain dispersion in banking fees

Pode-se observar uma considerável dispersão entre os preços que diferentes bancos comerciais no Brasil cobram por um mesmo pacote homogêneo de serviços— dispersão esta que é sustentada ao longo do tempo. Em uma tentativa de replicar esta observação empírica, foi desenvolvido um simples modelo que lança mão do arcabouço da literatura de custos de procura (search costs) e que baseia-se também na lealdade por parte dos consumidores. Em seguida, dados de preços referentes ao setor bancário brasileiro são aplicados ao modelo desenvolvido e alguns exercícios empíricos são então realizados. Esses exercícios permitem que: (i) os custos de procura incorridos pelos consumidores sejam estimados, ao fixar-se os valores dos demais parâmetros e (ii) as correspondentes perdas de peso-morto que surgem como consequência dos custos de procura incorridos pelos consumidores sejam também estimadas. Quando apenas 80% da população é livre para buscar por bancos que cobrem menores tarifas, à taxa de juros mensal de 0,5%, o valor estimado do custo de procura médio incorrido pelos consumidores chega a 1805,80 BRL, sendo a correspondente perda de peso-morto média na ordem de 233,71 BRL por consumidor.

Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Quality of Cotesia flavipes (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) reared at different host densities and the estimated cost of its commercial production

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cost-benefit of hospitalization compared with outpatient care for pregnant women with pregestational and gestational diabetes or with mild hyperglycemia, in Brazil

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: Gestações complicadas pelo diabetes estão associadas com aumento de complicações maternas e neonatais. Os custos hospitalares aumentam de acordo com a assistência prestada. O objetivo foi calcular o custo-benefício e a taxa de rentabilidade social da hospitalização comparada ao atendimento ambulatorial em gestantes com diabetes ou com hiperglicemia leve. DESENHO do ESTUDO: Estudo prospectivo, observacional, quantitativo, realizado em hospital universitário, sendo incluídas todas as gestantes com diabetes pregestacional e gestacional ou com hiperglicemia leve que não desenvolveram intercorrências clínicas na gestação e que tiveram parto no Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista (HC-FMB-Unesp). MÉTODOS: Trinta gestantes tratadas com dieta foram acompanhadas em ambulatório e 20 tratadas com dieta e insulina foram abordadas com hospitalizações curtas e frequentes. Foram obtidos custos diretos (pessoal, material e exames) e indiretos (despesas gerais) a partir de dados contidos no prontuário e no sistema de custo por absorção do hospital e posteriormente calculado o custo-benefício. RESULTADOS: O sucesso do tratamento das gestantes diabéticas evitou o gasto de US$ 1.517,97 e US$ 1.127,43 para pacientes hospitalizadas e ambulatoriais, respectivamente. O custo-benefício da atenção hospitalizada foi US$ 143.719,16 e ambulatorial, US$ 253.267,22, com rentabilidade social 1,87 e 5,35 respectivamente. CONCLUSÃO: A análise árvore de decisão confirma que o sucesso dos tratamentos elimina custos no hospital. A relação custo-benefício indicou que o tratamento ambulatorial é economicamente mais vantajoso do que a hospitalização. A rentabilidade social de ambos os tratamentos foi maior que 1, indicando que ambos os tipos de atendimento à gestante diabética têm benefício positivo.

CPITN: time and cost estimates for periodontal prevention and treatment procedures.

The aim of this study was to estimate the necessary time and cost for periodontal prevention and treatment in a working population from sugar and alcohol refineries in Araraquara, SP, Brazil. A stratified sample of 528 employees aged 18-64 from administrative, industrial and agricultural staffs was examined by one examiner, previously trained, according to the community periodontal index of treatment needs (CPITN). The time required for procedures and the cost was extrapolated to the total worker population. The results showed that the estimated time required for periodontal prevention/treatment was 4527 hours. Of this time, 1783 hours were required for oral hygiene instruction, 2531 for scaling, 151 for surgery and 62 for maintenance. The cost would be US $17,655 for hiring a dentist for 8 hours/day to provide oral hygiene instruction, scaling, surgery and maintenance. However, the cost would be US $9,028 for hiring a dentist for 4 hours/day to provide surgery and maintenance and a dental hygienist for 8 hours/day to provide scaling and oral hygiene instruction. Taking into account epidemiologic, technical and economic aspects, the decision relating to manpower should be this second option.

The energetic cost of maintenance in ruminants: From classical to new concepts and prediction systems

The cost of maintenance makes up a large part of total energy costs in ruminants. Metabolizable energy (ME) requirement for maintenance (MEm) is the daily ME intake that exactly balances heat energy (HE). The net energy requirement for maintenance (NEm) is estimated subtracting MEm from the HE produced by the processing of the diet. Men cannot be directly measured experimentally and is estimated by measuring basal metabolism in fasted animals or by regression measuring the recovered energy in fed animals. MEm and NEm usually, but not always, are expressed in terms of BW0.75. However, this scaling factor is substantially empirical and its exponent is often inadequate, especially for growing animals. MEm estimated by different feeding systems (AFRC, CNCPS, CSIRO, INRA, NRC) were compared by using dairy cattle data. The comparison showed that these systems differ in the approaches used to estimate MEm and for its quantification. The CSIRO system estimated the highest MEm, mostly because it includes a correction factor to increase ME as the feeding level increases. Relative to CSIRO estimates, those of NRC, INRA, CNCPS, and AFRC were on average 0.92, 0.86, 0.84, and 0.78, respectively. MEm is affected by the previous nutritional history of the animals. This phenomenon is best predicted by dynamic models, of which several have been published in the last decades. They are based either on energy flows or on nutrient flows. Some of the different approaches used were described and discussed.

Estimate of concrete block texture using image analysis

The texture of concrete blocks is very important and is often the decisive factor when choosing a product, particularly if the building specifications call for high-strength blocks allied to low-cost finish, in which case exposed blocks with a closer texture are often preferred. Furthermore, a closer texture, especially for exteriors, may be a vital factor in ensuring the building's durability. At present, however, there is no standard to quantify the texture of a structural block. Further, when studying masonry blocks compressive strength should never be overlooked. This article discusses a procedure to produce concrete block textures with and without the addition of lime, but still to achieve the required compressive strength. The method used in this study, to evaluate texture, proved to be simpler and cheaper than methods reported by other authors in the literature. The addition of small quantities of lime proved beneficial for both texture and compressive strength. Increasing the amount of lime further, however, only improved texture.

Development of equations to estimate microbial contamination in ruminal incubation residues of forage produced under tropical conditions using 15N as a label1

The objective of this study was to use 15N to label microbial cells to allow development of equations for estimating the microbial contamination in ruminal in situ incubation residues of forage produced under tropical conditions. A total of 24 tropical forages were ruminal incubated in 3 steers at 3 separate times. To determine microbial contamination of the incubated residues, ruminal bacteria were labeled with 15N by continuous intraruminal infusion 60 h before the first incubation and continued until the last day of incubation. Ruminal digesta was collected for the isolation of bacteria before the first infusion of 15N on adaptation period and after the infusion of 15N on collection period. To determine the microbial contamination of CP fractions, restricted models were compared with the full model using the model identity test. A value of the corrected fraction A was estimated from the corresponding noncorrected fraction by this equation: Corrected A fraction (ACPC) = 1.99286 + 0.98256 × A fraction without correction (ACPWC). The corrected fraction B was estimated from the corresponding noncorrected fraction and from CP, NDF, neutral detergent insoluble protein (NDIP), and indigestible NDF (iNDF) using the equation corrected B fraction (BCPC) = -17.2181 - 0.0344 × fraction B without correction (BCPWC) + 0.65433 × CP + 1.03787 × NDF + 2.66010 × NDIP - 0.85979 × iNDF. The corrected degradation rate of B fraction (kd)was estimated using the equation corrected degradation rate of B fraction (kdCPC) = 0.04667 + 0.35139 × degradation rate of B fraction without correction (kdCPWC) + 0.0020 × CP - 0.00055839 × NDF - 0.00336 × NDIP + 0.00075089 × iNDF. This equation was obtained to estimate the contamination using CP of the feeds: %C = 79.21 × (1 - e-0.0555t) × e-0.0874CP. It was concluded that A and B fractions and kd of CP could be highly biased by microbial CP contamination, and therefore these corrected values could be obtained mathematically, replacing the use of microbial markers. The percentage of contamination and the corrected apparent degradability of CP could be obtained from values of CP and time of incubation for each feed, which could reduce cost and labor involved when using 15N. © 2013 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

The cost of hunger: Social and economic impact of child undernutrition in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) jointly with the World Program of Food (WFP) and recognized experts of the region developed a methodology that, using secondary information, estimate the opportunity cost derived from undernutrition. This methodology has been successfully applied in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic, where the cost of undernutrition was estimated at 6.7 billion dollars in 2004. The present study covers four countries in South America: Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru. The results indicate that the cost of the malnutrition in these countries reached 4.3 billion dollars in 2005, which is equivalent to 3.3 per cent of the GDP of these countries. The results strongly point out that child undernutrition is not only a problem of health or an unacceptable situation ethically, but it is a national problem, given the enormous social costs and the loss of opportunities that it imposes on the national economy.

Energetic cost of digging behavior in workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens (Fabricius)

Energetic cost of digging behavior in workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens (Fabricius). During nest excavation, leaf-cutting ant workers undergo reduction in their body reserve, particularly carbohydrates. In order to estimate the energetic cost of digging, groups of 30 workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens were sealed in a hermetic chamber for 24, 48 and 72 hours, with and without soil for digging, and had the CO2 concentration measured using respirometric chambers as well as volume of soil excavated (g). As expected, the worker groups that carried out soil excavation expelled more carbon dioxide than the groups that did not excavate. Therefore, a worker with body mass of 9.65 ± 1.50 mg dug in average 0.85 ± 0.27 g of soil for 24 hours, consuming ca. 0.58 ± 0.23 J. In this study, we calculate that the energetic cost of excavation per worker per day in the experimental set-up was ca. 0.58 J.

Periocular basal cell carcinoma: cost of topical immunotherapy versus estimated cost of surgical treatment

Purpose: The objective of this study was to compare the estimated cost of clinical and surgical treatment for basl cell carcinoma of the eyelid. Methods: This was a pilot study of 12 patients with basal cell carcinoma receiving treatment with 5% imiquimod cream at the ocular plastic surgery center, medical school University of Sao Paulo (HC-FMUSP, Brazil). The cost of clinical treatment was estimated based on the time of treatment and amount of medication consumed by patients in the home setting. The cost of surgical treatment was estimated by ophthalmologists with experience in reconstructive plastic surgery based on analysis of images of the same patients. Surgeons responded to a questionnaire with four questions about surgical technique, surgical materials required, estimated duration of surgery and type of anesthesia. Results: Immunotherapy lasted from 8 to 12 weeks. All patients reported each cold-stored sachet with 5% imiquimod cream lasted 3 days. According to the institution, a box with 12 sachets costs BRL 480.00. Patients required 1.58-3.11 boxes for complete treatment, corresponding to a total cost of BRL 758.40-1,492.80. Based on image analysis, surgeons evaluated surgery would require 1-3 hours. The estimated cost of surgery room and staff was BRL 263.00, to which the cost of supplies was added. Thus, the total cost of surgical treatment was BRL 272.61-864.82. On the average, immunotherapy was 57,64% more costly than surgical treatment. Conclusions: Malignant eyelid tumors are a common finding in clinical ophthalmology. Surgery is still the treatment of choice at our institution, but immunotherapy with 5% imiquimod cream may be indicated for patients with multiple lesions or high surgical risk and for patients declining surgery for reasons of fear or esthetic concerns. The ability to estimate costs related to the treatment of malignant eyelid tumors is an important aid in the financial planning of health care institutions. Further studies should evaluate the possibility of institutions equating the cost of immunotherapy and surgical treatment by acquiring similar but less expensive medications.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination in Brazil: Regional analyses according to the endemic context

Objective: To To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination program in Brazil. Methods: An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of hepatitis A for 24 years. The analysis was run separately according to the pattern of regional endemicity, one for South + Southeast (low endemicity) and one for the North + Northeast + Midwest (intermediate endemicity). The decision analysis model compared universal childhood vaccination with current program of vaccinating high risk individuals. Epidemiologic and cost estimates were based on data from a nationwide seroprevalence survey of viral hepatitis, primary data collection, National Health Information Systems and literature. The analysis was conducted from both the health system and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in 2008 Brazilian currency (Real). Results: A universal immunization program would have a significant impact on disease epidemiology in all regions, resulting in 64% reduction in the number of cases of icteric hepatitis, 59% reduction in deaths for the disease and a 62% decrease of life years lost, in a national perspective. With a vaccine price of R$16.89 (US$7.23) per dose, vaccination against hepatitis A was a cost-saving strategy in the low and intermediate endemicity regions and in Brazil as a whole from both health system and society perspective. Results were most sensitive to the frequency of icteric hepatitis, ambulatory care and vaccine costs. Conclusions: Universal childhood vaccination program against hepatitis A could be a cost-saving strategy in all regions of Brazil. These results are useful for the Brazilian government for vaccine related decisions and for monitoring population impact if the vaccine is included in the National Immunization Program. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.