Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Feminist epistemology meets the masculinity of marketing and consumer knowledge: a contemporary rendering of a decade-long debate

In this paper I outline possibilities for, and issues arising from, opposition towards the dominant ideologies and practices of marketing knowledge (Hirschman 1993) through an engagement with feminist epistemology (Longino 1991, Harding 1987). Feminist epistemology is a political branch of naturalised epistemology (Quine 1969) primarily concerned with critique of constructions of gender, gender norms and gendered interests within the production of knowledge (Anderson 1995) and with theorising, grounding and legitimating feminist knowledge making practices (Harding 1987). It is most often associated with the feminist critique of science, and with feminist science and technology studies (Haraway 1987, Wajman 1997). Feminist epistemology asks the question, ‘what is the nature of the feminist critical project as a way of knowing?’ (McLennan 1995:392). This paper outlines the basis of the feminist critique of knowledge generally, and as applied to marketing knowledge, offers description of the three main epistemological approaches to this question and suggestions for their application in practice. The paper progresses important work by consumer behaviour theorists (Bristor and Fischer 1993, Hirschman 1993) on the potentials of feminist ways of knowing for marketing and consumer behaviour by moving beyond the tripartite of feminist approaches outlined, and extending the discussion to take into account the development of situated knowledges theory (Haraway 1989, 1997), which has become so important in the decade since these papers were written. It joins ongoing conversations in consumer behaviour and marketing that share similar feminist concerns (Catterall et al 1997, 2000, 2005, Bettany and Woodruffe Burton 1999, 2005, and Hogg et al 1999, 2000) but in this contribution it takes a slightly tangential approach, seeing marketing knowledge in terms of its epistemic culture by using a model of masculinity in academic cultures from feminist theory (Wagner 1994) to help conceptualise it as such. The dominant masculine ideology of marketing knowledge both in execution (Penaloza 1994, Bristor and Fischer 1994, Fischer and Bristor 1993, Woodruffe 1996), and values (Hirschman 1993, Brown 2000, Desmond 1997) has been well documented over the past fifteen years. However, although the basis of this, how is it manifested and how a feminist informed marketing knowledge could be achieved, have been addressed somewhat in the literature (Bristor and Fischer 1993, Hogg, Bettany and Long 2000) an updated rendering is necessary which focuses specifically on epistemology and situates this discussion within a cultural framework. To do this I use the notions of cultural masculinity in academic disciplines developed by Wagner (1994) of ‘organisational egocentrism’, ‘fake collectivity’ and ‘de realisation’. With these, I raise important and specific issues around the notion of the masculinity of marketing knowledge, and then present an outline of feminist epistemologies to illustrate how different feminist approaches to knowledge would address these concerns.

Developing a Theoretical Framework for a Study on the Impact of Advertising Credibility of Consumer Healthcare Products

The tough competition in the global and national markets and new trends in consumerism resulted in an increase in the volume of advertisements. Sometimes advertisers are successful in achieving their intended objectives with a particular advertisement and sometimes they are not .These factors contributed a lot towards the decision making problems of advertising agencies with regard to the selection of appropriate advertising strategies and tactics. The tough competition and large volume of advertising make the consumers confused and this even created doubts in the minds of consumers about the genuineness and reliability of manufacturers and products. These factors caused a query regarding the active role of credibility element in advertising. The proposed study examines the effects of advertising credibility in consumer health care non durable product advertising on communication effect, purchase behavior and ad skepticism. This paper examines the need for the study of advertising credibility and reviews the advertising- consumer behaviour- credibility – healthcare theories which form a basis for the study. It identifies the different components and dimensions of advertising credibility and the importance of communication effect, purchase behavior and ad skepticism. It also studies the relevance of credibility in the consumer healthcare products advertising and suggests a Theoretical Framework for the proposed study

Attitudes and behaviour towards food attributes and organic food – a triangular methodological investigation of occasional organic consumers

Organic food is increasingly available in the conventional food retail, where organic products are offered alongside with various other types of products and compete mainly with conventional and the so-called conventional-plus products. The latter are conventional products displaying particular quality attributes on the product packaging, such as ‘no artificial additives’, or ‘from animal welfare husbandry’. Often, these quality attributes also apply to organic products. Occasional organic consumers might prefer such conventional-plus alternatives that are perceived to be ‘between’ organic and conventional products. The overall objective of this PhD thesis was to provide information about the segment of occasional organic consumers. In particular, the thesis focussed on consumer perceptions and attitudes towards the quality of, and preferences for, organic, conventional and conventional-plus products in two countries: Germany and Switzerland. To achieve these objectives, qualitative and quantitative consumer research was combined in order to explore occasional organic consumers’ perceptions and attitudes as well as to observe their preferences and buying behaviour regarding different types of food products: organic, conventional and conventional-plus products. The qualitative research showed that, depending on single criteria, organic production was both positively as well as negatively assessed by consumers. Consumer perception of organic food was found to be highly selective and primarily focussed on the final stage of the particular production process. A major problem is that consumers are still mostly unfamiliar with factors associated with organic production, have a lack of confidence, and often confuse organic with conventional products. Besides this, consumer expectations of organic products are different from the expectations of conventional products. The quantitative research revealed that attitudes strongly determine consumers’ preferences for organic, conventional and conventional-plus products. Consumer attitudes tended to differ more between organic and conventional choices rather than conventional-plus and conventional choices. Furthermore, occasional organic consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences. They can be grouped into two segments: the consumers in one segment were less price sensitive and preferred organic products. The consumers in the other segment were more price sensitive and rather preferred conventional-plus or conventional products. To conclude, given the selective and subjective nature of consumer perception and the strong focus of consumer perception on the final stage of the food production process, specific additional values of organic farming should be communicated in clear and catchy messages. At the same time, these messages should be particularly focussed on the final stage of organic food production. The communication of specific added values in relation with organic products to improve the perceived price-performance-ratio is important since conventional-plus products represent an interesting alternative particularly for price sensitive occasional organic consumers. Besides this, it is important to strengthen affirmative consumer attitudes towards organic production. Therefore, policy support should emphasise on long-term communication campaigns and education programmes to increase the consumer awareness and knowledge of organic food and farming. Since consumers expect that organic food is regionally or at least domestically produced while they less accept organic imports, policy support of domestic and regional producers is a crucial measure to fill the current gap between the increasing consumer demand of organic food and the stagnation of the domestic and regional organic food supply.

Exploratory and dust-bathing behaviour in laying hens kept in commercial aviaries and furnished cages

The aim of the present thesis was to identify management factors that affect the extent of exploratory behaviour (ground pecking, scratching) as well as quantitative and qualitative as-pects of dust-bathing behaviour in laying hens kept in commercial furnished cages (‘small group housing’) and aviaries. Based on the results, it should be considered which management measures can be recommended for farmers to enhance hen welfare. The feasibility of direct observations of dust-bathing behaviour as well as video observations of exploratory and dust-bathing behaviour was tested in two aviaries. The direct observations were judged to be unfeasible under the conditions encountered. For the analysis of the video recordings, different sampling intervals for instantaneous scan sampling, different extents of observation time, and intra- and inter-observer reliabilities were compared and the most ap-propriate observation scheme selected. Applying the selected scheme (observing the first 16 minutes of every hour distributed over two consecutive light days with a sample interval of two minutes), within the range of environmental conditions found in 22 aviaries, pecking, scratching and dust-bathing behaviour was performed on average 25, 2 and 7 % of the obser-vation time. Hen numbers in the litter were positively associated with stocking density and group size. More scratching was performed with increasing litter height as well as in humid litter. If no litter had been provided, thus substrate consisted of dust and faeces, a reduced proportion of dust-bathing was found. The same method was then used in 16 furnished cage systems. On average 12 % of the total hen number were found on the scratching mats. The hens spent 8 % of the observed time pecking at the mat, 4 % dust-bathing and 0.4 % scratch-ing. Higher proportions were found on the mats and more dust-bathing behaviour occurred, if substrate was provided. Also with increasing light intensity and stocking density more hens were observed on the mats. More pecking and scratching occurred in conditions of higher stocking density, probably due to social facilitation, and of increased mat area per hen. With increasing mat numbers per cage less pecking was observed. Wider mats led to increased dust-bathing behaviour. Finally, 129 dust-baths recorded in 17 aviaries were analysed in detail. On average they lasted 17 minutes, with the tossing phase taking 69 % of this time, including on average 2 vertical wing shakes and 3 scratches with one leg per minute tossing phase. Dust-bath duration de-creased with increasing litter height. Litter type influenced all recorded parameters: dust-bath duration was highest on straw and lowest on fine material and fine material mixed with straw, where on both also the proportion of the tossing phase was lowest. The number of vertical wing shakes during the dust-bath was highest on straw and lowest on fine material mixed with straw as against the frequency of vertical wing shaking that was lowest on straw and highest on fine material. If dust-bathing hens were disturbed twice or more, dust-bathing duration decreased. With increasing light intensity a decreased proportion of the tossing phase as well as a reduced number of vertical wing shakes were recorded. Possibly the light stimulated the hens to dust-bath more often with less tossing behaviour per performance. The observed variation of the dust-bathing parameters could reflect successful adaptation or frustration of the hens. The litter and light conditions on the investigated farms were predominantly restrictive in terms of stimulation of exploration and dust-bathing behaviour. Thus, it was only possible to analyse possible associations between these factors and exploration and dust-bathing behav-iour within the range found. Based on the results the following management recommendations can be given: To allow hens in furnished cages more normal activity, substrate availability should be improved and mat space and light intensity increased. With regard to aviaries as well litter availability should be improved. Litter height should not be too low. Disturbances during dust-bathing should be prevented, but no influencing factors could be identified.

Can consumer complaints reduce product reliability? Should we worry?

We analyze a monopolist’s pricing and product reliability problem when consumers are entitled to product replacement but have heterogeneous cost of exercising this right, and we assess the implications of a decrease in consumers’ claiming cost on reliability, profit, and welfare. We find that reducing consumers’ claiming cost may reduce reliability and increase profit. Additionally, the model can explain why some firms encourage consumers to complain while others discourage consumers from complaining. We also show that welfare and profit are partially aligned, specially when consumers’ claiming cost are relatively low and the firm prefers to promote complaints; consequently, we find that encouraging complaints will eventually increase welfare

Consumer trust, risk and food safety: a review

Consumers' attitudes to trust and risk are key issues in food safety research and attention needs to be focused on clearly defining a framework for analysing consumer behaviour in these terms. In order to achieve this, a detailed review of the recent literature surrounding risk, trust and the relationship between the two must be conducted. This paper aims to collate the current social sciences literature in the fields of food safety, trust and risk. It provides an insight into the economic and other modelling procedures available to measure consumers' attitudes to risk and trust in food safety and specifically notes the need for future research to concentrate on examining risk and trust as inter-related variables rather than two distinct, mutually exclusive concepts. A framework is proposed which it is hoped will assist in devising more effective research to support risk communication to consumers.

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

Behaviour change in the UK climate debate : an assessment of responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This paper explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the paper reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The paper concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

The national dialogue on behaviour change in UK climate policy: some observations on responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This chapter explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the chapter reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The chapter concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

Brand equity, brand loyalty and consumer satisfaction

This study aims to investigate the mediating effects of consumer satisfaction on the relationship between consumer-based brand equity and brand loyalty in the hotel and restaurant industry. Based on a sample of 378 customers and using structural equation modelling approach, the five dimensions of brand equity—physical quality, staff behaviour, ideal self-congruence, brand identification and lifestyle-congruence—are found to have positive effects on consumer satisfaction. The findings of the study suggest that consumer satisfaction partially mediates the effects of staff behaviour, ideal self-congruence and brand identification on brand loyalty. The effects of physical quality and lifestyle-congruence on brand loyalty are fully mediated by consumer satisfaction.

To what extent are CO2 emissions from intra-urban shopping trips by cars affected by drivers’ travel behaviour and store location?

Transportation is seen as one of the major sources of CO2 pollutants nowadays. The impact of increased transport in retailing should not be underestimated. Most previous studies have focused on transportation and underlying trips, in general, while very few studies have addressed the specific affects that, for instance, intra-city shopping trips generate. Furthermore, most of the existing methods used to estimate emission are based on macro-data designed to generate national or regional inventory projections. There is a lack of studies using micro-data based methods that are able to distinguish between driver behaviour and the locational effects induced by shopping trips, which is an important precondition for energy efficient urban planning. The aim of this study is to implement a micro-data method to estimate and compare CO2 emission induced by intra-urban car travelling to a retail destination of durable goods (DG), and non-durable goods (NDG). We estimate the emissions from aspects of travel behaviour and store location. The study is conducted by means of a case study in the city of Borlänge, where GPS tracking data on intra-urban car travel is collected from 250 households. We find that a behavioural change during a trip towards a CO2 optimal travelling by car has the potential to decrease emission to 36% (DG), and to 25% (NDG) of the emissions induced by car-travelling shopping trips today. There is also a potential of reducing CO2 emissions induced by intra-urban shopping trips due to poor location by 54%, and if the consumer selected the closest of 8 existing stores, the CO2 emissions would be reduced by 37% of the current emission induced by NDG shopping trips.

Consumer attitude towards purchasing intent for ready to drink orange juice and nectar

Purpose: The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the impact of some labeling aspects on the consumer intent to purchase ready to drink orange juice and nectar. Design/methodology/approach: The influence of label information on the consumer intent to purchase was evaluated by conjoint analysis using a convenience sample (n=149). A factorial design with four characteristics, price, brand, information about the product and kind of beverage, was used. Three levels were established for brand and product information, and two for price and kind of beverage. Findings: Low price, product information and market leading brand had positive impact. No preservatives/natural was the information that most influenced consumer's purchase intent. The ideal label showed the leading brand, low price and information no preservatives/natural. These results could be useful for strategic planning of consumer instruction and have important implications for Brazilian orange juice manufactures. Originality/value: Although the most widely consumed beverages in Brazil are ready to drink orange juice and nectar, it was unexpected that consumers did not know the differences between them and that kind of beverage was not an important factor for the purchase decision. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Clustering of variables around latent components: an application in consumer science

The present work proposes a method based on CLV (Clustering around Latent Variables) for identifying groups of consumers in L-shape data. This kind of datastructure is very common in consumer studies where a panel of consumers is asked to assess the global liking of a certain number of products and then, preference scores are arranged in a two-way table Y. External information on both products (physicalchemical description or sensory attributes) and consumers (socio-demographic background, purchase behaviours or consumption habits) may be available in a row descriptor matrix X and in a column descriptor matrix Z respectively. The aim of this method is to automatically provide a consumer segmentation where all the three matrices play an active role in the classification, getting homogeneous groups from all points of view: preference, products and consumer characteristics. The proposed clustering method is illustrated on data from preference studies on food products: juices based on berry fruits and traditional cheeses from Trentino. The hedonic ratings given by the consumer panel on the products under study were explained with respect to the product chemical compounds, sensory evaluation and consumer socio-demographic information, purchase behaviour and consumption habits.

At surface behaviour, dive depth and dive duration and associated hydrographic data of adult male southern elephant seals from King George Island from expedition JUB2010 with links to datasets

Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea). We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell-Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.