Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator pˆ , its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters a and b for pˆ

and pˆ>p , respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as p→0, and which guarantee that, for any p∈(0,1), the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, r, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown p. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when a/b does not deviate too much from 1, and asymptotically minimax as r→∞ when a=b.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

RNase E is required for the maturation of ssrA RNA and normal ssrA RNA peptide-tagging activity

During recent studies of ribonucleolytic “degradosome” complexes of Escherichia coli, we found that degradosomes contain certain RNAs as well as RNase E and other protein components. One of these RNAs is ssrA (for small stable RNA) RNA (also known as tm RNA or 10Sa RNA), which functions as both a tRNA and mRNA to tag the C-terminal ends of truncated proteins with a short peptide and target them for degradation. Here, we show that mature 363-nt ssrA RNA is generated by RNase E cleavage at the CCA-3′ terminus of a 457-nt ssrA RNA precursor and that interference with this cleavage in vivo leads to accumulation of the precursor and blockage of SsrA-mediated proteolysis. These results demonstrate that RNase E is required to produce mature ssrA RNA and for normal ssrA RNA peptide-tagging activity. Our findings indicate that RNase E, an enzyme already known to have a central role in RNA processing and decay in E. coli, also has the previously unsuspected ability to affect protein degradation through its role in maturation of the 3′ end of ssrA RNA.

Autocrine production and action of IL-3 and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in chronic myeloid leukemia

Primitive subsets of leukemic cells isolated by using fluorescence-activated cell sorting from patients with newly diagnosed Ph+/BCR–ABL+ chronic myeloid leukemia display an abnormal ability to proliferate in vitro in the absence of added growth factors. We now show from analyses of growth-factor gene expression, protein production, and antibody inhibition studies that this deregulated growth can be explained, at least in part, by a novel differentiation-controlled autocrine mechanism. This mechanism involves the consistent and selective activation of IL-3 and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) production and a stimulation of STAT5 phosphorylation in CD34+ leukemic cells. When these cells differentiate into CD34− cells in vivo, IL-3 and G-CSF production declines, and the cells concomitantly lose their capacity for autonomous growth in vitro despite their continued expression of BCR–ABL. Based on previous studies of normal cells, excessive exposure of the most primitive chronic myeloid leukemia cells to IL-3 and G-CSF through an autocrine mechanism could explain their paradoxically decreased self-renewal in vitro and slow accumulation in vivo, in spite of an increased cycling activity and selective expansion of later compartments.

Function of von Willebrand factor after crossed bone marrow transplantation between normal and von Willebrand disease pigs: effect on arterial thrombosis in chimeras.

von Willebrand factor (vWF) is essential for the induction of occlusive thrombosis in stenosed and injured pig arteries and for normal hemostasis. To separate the relative contribution of plasma and platelet vWF to arterial thrombosis, we produced chimeric normal and von Willebrand disease pigs by crossed bone marrow transplantation; von Willebrand disease (vWD) pigs were engrafted with normal pig bone marrow and normal pigs were engrafted with vWD bone marrow. Thrombosis developed in the chimeric normal pigs that showed normal levels of plasma vWF and an absence of platelet vWF; but no thrombosis occurred in the chimeric vWD pigs that demonstrated normal platelet vWF and an absence of plasma vWF. The ear bleeding times of the chimeric pigs were partially corrected by endogenous plasma vWF but not by platelet vWF. Our animal model demonstrated that vWF in the plasma compartment is essential for the development of arterial thrombosis and that it also contributes to the maintenance of bleeding time and hemostasis.

Bail-in Provisions in State Aid and Resolution Procedures: Are they consistent with systemic stability? CEPS Policy Brief No. 318, 21 May 2014

This CEPS Policy Brief examines the provisions for bail-in in the European Union – that is, the principle whereby any public measure to recapitalise a bank with insufficient prudential capital must be preceded by a write-down or conversion into equity of creditors’ claims – in state aid policies and in the new resolution framework for failing banks, with two aims: i) to assess whether and how they are coordinated and ii) more importantly, whether they address satisfactorily the question of systemic stability that may arise when investors fear that creditors’ claims are likely to be bailed-in in a bank crisis. The issue is especially relevant in the present context, as the comprehensive assessment exercise underway for EU banks falling under the direct supervision of the European Central Bank may lead supervisors to require substantial capital injections simultaneously for many of the banks involved, possibly shaking investors’ confidence across EU banking markets. The authors conclude that the two sets of rules are, broadly speaking, mutually consistent and that they already contain sufficient safeguards to address systemic stability concerns. However, the balance of the elements underpinning the European Commission’s decisions in individual cases may not be clear to bank creditors and potential investors in financial markets. The impression of unneeded rigidity on this very sensitive issue has been heightened by official statements over-emphasising that each case will be assessed individually under competition rules, thus feeding the concern that the systemic dimension of the issue may have been underestimated. Therefore, further clarification by the Commission may be needed on how the various criteria will be applied during the ongoing transition to banking union – perhaps through a new communication completing the state aid framework for banks in view of the adoption of the new resolution rules.

Ischaemia and outcome with normal coronary arteries

This editorial refers to 'Long-term survival of patients with chest pain syndrome and angiographically normal or near-normal coronary arteries: the additional prognostic value of dipyridamole echocardiography test'dagger by R. Sicari et al., on page 2136.

Liver fluke-associated and sporadic cholangiocarcinoma: an immunohistochemical study of bile duct, peribiliary gland and tumour cell phenotypes

Aim: To compare cell phenotypes displayed by cholangiocarcinomas and adjacent bile duct lesions in patients from an area endemic in liver-fluke infestation and those with sporadic cholangiocarcinoma. Methods: 65 fluke-associated and 47 sporadic cholangiocarcinomas and 6 normal livers were studied. Serial paraffin-wax sections were stained immunohistochemically with monoclonal antibodies characterising a Brunner or pyloric gland metaplasia cell phenotype (antigens D10 and 1F6), intestinal goblet cells (antigen 17NM), gastric foveolar apomucin (MUC5AC), a gastrointestinal epithelium cytokeratin (CK20) and the p53 protein. Results: 60% of the 112 cholangiocarcinomas expressed antigen D10, 68% MUC5AC, 33% antigen 17NM and 20% CK20; 37% showed overexpression of p53. When present together in a cholangiocarcinoma, cancer cells expressing D10 were distinct from those displaying 17NM or MUC5AC. Many more fluke-associated cholangiocarcinomas than sporadic cholangiocarcinomas displayed 17NM and p53 expression. Most cases of hyperplastic and dysplastic biliary epithelium expressed D10 strongly. Pyloric gland metaplasia and peribiliary glands displayed D10 and 1F6, with peribiliary gland hyperplasia more evident in the livers with fluke-associated cholangiocarcinoma; goblet cells in intestinal metaplasia stained for 17NM. No notable association of expression between any two antigens (including p53) was found in the cancers. Conclusions: Most cases of dysplastic biliary epithelium and cholangiocarcinoma display a Brunner or pyloric gland cell phenotype and a gastric foveolar cell phenotype. The expression of D10 in hyperplastic and dysplastic epithelium and in cholangiocarcinoma is consistent with a dysplasia-carcinoma sequence. Many more fluke-associated cholangiocarcinomas than sporadic cholangiocarcinoma display an intestinal goblet cell phenotype and overexpress p53, indicating differences in the aetiopathology of the cancers in the two groups of patients.

Standardising bull breeding soundness evaluations and reporting in Australia

There is substantial variation in bull breeding soundness evaluation procedures and reports in Australia; the situation is compounded by difficulties in interpretation and the validity of many reports. In an effort to overcome this, the scientific literature was reviewed [Fordyce G. In: Fordyce G, editor. Bull fertility: selection and management in Australia. Eight Mile Plains, Australia: Australian Cattle Vets; 2002] and the needs of stakeholders were considered in preparing a manual, Evaluating and Reporting Bull Fertility [Entwistle KW, Fordyce G. Evaluating and reporting bull fertility. Eight Mile Plains, Australia: Australian Cattle Vets; 2003.] that outlined standards for assessing and reporting bull breeding soundness. A new recording and reporting system, called Bull Reporter, is based on standards from this manual and groups bull fertility traits into five summary categories: Scrotum, Physical, Crush-side Semen, Sperm Morphology, and Serving. The client will generally select which categories they wish to have included in the evaluation to suit their specific purposes. While there is adequate room for comments, the veterinarian is not required to make an overall judgment of whether the bull has normal capacity to sire calves under natural mating management, but ensures the standards for each selected category are met. Professional, standardised, easy-to-read reports are produced either electronically [Entwistle KW, Fordyce G. Evaluating and reporting bull fertility. Eight Mile Plains, Australia: Australian Cattle Vets; 2003.] or manually. A bull owner or their agent signs the certificate to affirm that bulls have not undergone procedures to rectify faults which may have otherwise caused them to fail the standards. An accreditation system for assessing sperm morphology was established because of its demonstrated relationship with pregnancy rates and because of the difficulties in achieving consistent and accurate assessments among laboratories. It is considered that Bull Reporter is applicable to beef and dairy bulls across all levels of management, genotypes and environments throughout Australia, with substantial potential for application elsewhere in the world. Crown Copyright (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A sensory-linguistic approach to normal and impaired reading development

In this chapter we outline a sensory-linguistic approach to the, study of reading skill development. We call this a sensory-linguistic approach because the focus of interest is on the relationship between basic sensory processing skills and the ability to extract efficiently the orthographic and phonological information available in text during reading. Our review discusses how basic sensory processing deficits are associated with developmental dyslexia, and how these impairments may degrade word-decoding skills. We then review studies that demonstrate a more direct relationship between sensitivity to particular types of auditory and visual stimuli and the normal development of literacy skills. Specifically, we suggest that the phonological and orthographic skills engaged while reading are constrained by the ability to detect and discriminate dynamic stimuli in the auditory and visual systems respectively.

Contrast masking in strabismic amblyopia: attenuation, noise, interocular suppression and binocular summation

To investigate amblyopic contrast vision at threshold and above we performed pedestal-masking (contrastdiscrimination) experiments with a group of eight strabismic amblyopes using horizontal sinusoidal gratings (mainly 3 c/deg) in monocular, binocular and dichoptic configurations balanced across eye (i.e. five conditions). With some exceptions in some observers, the four main results were as follows. (1) For the monocular and dichoptic conditions, sensitivity was less in the amblyopic eye than in the good eye at all mask contrasts. (2) Binocular and monocular dipper functions superimposed in the good eye. (3) Monocular masking functions had a normal dipper shape in the good eye, but facilitation was diminished in the amblyopic eye. (4) A less consistent result was normal facilitation in dichoptic masking when testing the good eye, but a loss of this when testing the amblyopic eye. This pattern of amblyopic results was replicated in a normal observer by placing a neutral density filter in front of one eye. The two-stage model of binocular contrast gain control [Meese, T.S., Georgeson, M.A. & Baker, D.H. (2006). Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold. Journal of Vision 6, 1224--1243.] was `lesioned' in several ways to assess the form of the amblyopic deficit. The most successful model involves attenuation of signal and an increase in noise in the amblyopic eye, and intact stages of interocular suppression and binocular summation. This implies a behavioural influence from monocular noise in the amblyopic visual system as well as in normal observers with an ND filter over one eye.

Phase equilibrium studies at normal pressures

A total pressure apparatus has been developed to measure vapour-liquid equilibrium data on binary mixtures at atmospheric and sub-atmospheric pressures. The method gives isothermal data which can be obtained rapidly. Only measurements of total pressure are made as a direct function of composition of synthetic liquid phase composition, the vapour phase composition being deduced through the Gibbs-Duhem relationship. The need to analyse either of the phases is eliminated. As such the errors introduced by sampling and analysis are removed. The essential requirements are that the pure components be degassed completely since any deficiency in degassing would introduce errors into the measured pressures. A similarly essential requirement was that the central apparatus would have to be absolutely leak-tight as any leakage of air either in or out of the apparatus would introduce erroneous pressure readings. The apparatus was commissioned by measuring the saturated vapour pressures of both degassed water and ethanol as a function of temperature. The pressure-temperature data on degassed water measured were directly compared with data in the literature, with good agreement. Similarly the pressure-temperature data were measured for ethanol, methanol and cyclohexane and where possible a direct comparison made with the literature data. Good agreement between the pure component data of this work and those available in the literature demonstrates firstly that a satisfactory degassing procedure has been achieved and that secondly the measurements of pressure-temperature are consistent for any one component; since this is true for a number of components, the measurements of both temperature and pressure are both self-consistent and of sufficient accuracy, with an observed compatibility between the precision/accuracy of the separate means of measuring pressure and temperature. The liquid mixtures studied were of ethanol-water, methanol-water and ethanol-cyclohexane. The total pressure was measured as the composition inside the equilibrium cell was varied at a set temperature. This gave P-T-x data sets for each mixture at a range of temperatures. A standard fitting-package from the literature was used to reduce the raw data to yield y-values to complete the x-y-P-T data sets. A consistency test could not be applied to the P-T-x data set as no y-values were obtained during the experimental measurements. In general satisfactory agreement was found between the data of this work and those available in the literature. For some runs discrepancies were observed, and further work recommended to eliminate the problems identified.

Essays on Microeconometrics

My dissertation has three chapters which develop and apply microeconometric tech- niques to empirically relevant problems. All the chapters examines the robustness issues (e.g., measurement error and model misspecification) in the econometric anal- ysis. The first chapter studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treat- ment variable is mismeasured and endogenous. I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the following two assumptions: (1) the exclusion restriction of an instrument and (2) deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment variable in the instrument. The identification strategy allows for general measurement error. Notably, (i) the measurement error is nonclassical, (ii) it can be endogenous, and (iii) no assumptions are imposed on the marginal distribution of the measurement error, so that I do not need to assume the accuracy of the measure- ment. Based on the partial identification result, I provide a consistent confidence interval for the local average treatment effect with uniformly valid size control. I also show that the identification strategy can incorporate repeated measurements to narrow the identified set, even if the repeated measurements themselves are endoge- nous. Using the the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, I demonstrate that my new methodology can produce nontrivial bounds for the return to college attendance when attendance is mismeasured and endogenous.

The second chapter, which is a part of a coauthored project with Federico Bugni, considers the problem of inference in dynamic discrete choice problems when the structural model is locally misspecified. We consider two popular classes of estimators for dynamic discrete choice models: K-step maximum likelihood estimators (K-ML) and K-step minimum distance estimators (K-MD), where K denotes the number of policy iterations employed in the estimation problem. These estimator classes include popular estimators such as Rust (1987)’s nested fixed point estimator, Hotz and Miller (1993)’s conditional choice probability estimator, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002)’s nested algorithm estimator, and Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008)’s least squares estimator. We derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of K- ML and K-MD estimators when the model is arbitrarily locally misspecified and we obtain three main results. In the absence of misspecification, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002) show that all K-ML estimators are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our first result shows that this finding extends to a locally misspecified model, regardless of the degree of local misspecification. As a second result, we show that an analogous result holds for all K-MD estimators, i.e., all K- MD estimator are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our third and final result is to compare K-MD and K-ML estimators in terms of asymptotic mean squared error. Under local misspecification, the optimally weighted K-MD estimator depends on the unknown asymptotic bias and is no longer feasible. In turn, feasible K-MD estimators could have an asymptotic mean squared error that is higher or lower than that of the K-ML estimators. To demonstrate the relevance of our asymptotic analysis, we illustrate our findings using in a simulation exercise based on a misspecified version of Rust (1987) bus engine problem.

The last chapter investigates the causal effect of the Omnibus Budget Reconcil- iation Act of 1993, which caused the biggest change to the EITC in its history, on unemployment and labor force participation among single mothers. Unemployment and labor force participation are difficult to define for a few reasons, for example, be- cause of marginally attached workers. Instead of searching for the unique definition for each of these two concepts, this chapter bounds unemployment and labor force participation by observable variables and, as a result, considers various competing definitions of these two concepts simultaneously. This bounding strategy leads to partial identification of the treatment effect. The inference results depend on the construction of the bounds, but they imply positive effect on labor force participa- tion and negligible effect on unemployment. The results imply that the difference- in-difference result based on the BLS definition of unemployment can be misleading

due to misclassification of unemployment.

Radiobiological model comparison of 3D conformal radiotherapy and IMRT plans for the treatment of prostate cancer

The main aim of radiotherapy is to deliver a dose of radiation that is high enough to destroy the tumour cells while at the same time minimising the damage to normal healthy tissues. Clinically, this has been achieved by assigning a prescription dose to the tumour volume and a set of dose constraints on critical structures. Once an optimal treatment plan has been achieved the dosimetry is assessed using the physical parameters of dose and volume. There has been an interest in using radiobiological parameters to evaluate and predict the outcome of a treatment plan in terms of both a tumour control probability (TCP) and a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study, simple radiobiological models that are available in a commercial treatment planning system were used to compare three dimensional conformal radiotherapy treatments (3D-CRT) and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatments of the prostate. Initially both 3D-CRT and IMRT were planned for 2 Gy/fraction to a total dose of 60 Gy to the prostate. The sensitivity of the TCP and the NTCP to both conventional dose escalation and hypo-fractionation was investigated. The biological responses were calculated using the Källman S-model. The complication free tumour control probability (P+) is generated from the combined NTCP and TCP response values. It has been suggested that the alpha/beta ratio for prostate carcinoma cells may be lower than for most other tumour cell types. The effect of this on the modelled biological response for the different fractionation schedules was also investigated.

Harnessing assessment and feedback in the first year to support learning success, engagement and retention

It has been argued that intentional first year curriculum design has a critical role to play in enhancing first year student engagement, success and retention (Kift, 2008). A fundamental first year curriculum objective should be to assist students to make the successful transition to assessment in higher education. Scott (2006) has identified that ‘relevant, consistent and integrated assessment … [with] prompt and constructive feedback’ are particularly relevant to student retention generally; while Nicol (2007) suggests that ‘lack of clarity regarding expectations in the first year, low levels of teacher feedback and poor motivation’ are key issues in the first year. At the very minimum, if we expect first year students to become independent and self-managing learners, they need to be supported in their early development and acquisition of tertiary assessment literacies (Orrell, 2005). Critical to this attainment is the necessity to alleviate early anxieties around assessment information, instructions, guidance, and performance. This includes, for example:  inducting students thoroughly into the academic languages and assessment genres they will encounter as the vehicles for evidencing learning success; and  making expectations about the quality of this evidence clear. Most importantly, students should receive regular formative feedback of their work early in their program of study to aid their learning and to provide information to both students and teachers on progress and achievement. Leveraging research conducted under an ALTC Senior Fellowship that has sought to articulate a research-based 'transition pedagogy' (Kift & Nelson, 2005) – a guiding philosophy for intentional first year curriculum design and support that carefully scaffolds and mediates the first year learning experience for contemporary heterogeneous cohorts – this paper will discuss theoretical and practical strategies and examples that should be of assistance in implementing good assessment and feedback practices across a range of disciplines in the first year.