Determination of a lower bound on Earth’s climate sensitivity

Transient and equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's climate has been calculated using global temperature, forcing and heating rate data for the period 1970–2010. We have assumed increased long-wave radiative forcing in the period due to the increase of the long-lived greenhouse gases. By assuming the change in aerosol forcing in the period to be zero, we calculate what we consider to be lower bounds to these sensitivities, as the magnitude of the negative aerosol forcing is unlikely to have diminished in this period. The radiation imbalance necessary to calculate equilibrium sensitivity is estimated from the rate of ocean heat accumulation as 0.37±0.03W m^−2 (all uncertainty estimates are 1−σ). With these data, we obtain best estimates for transient climate sensitivity 0.39±0.07K (W m^−2)^−1 and equilibrium climate sensitivity 0.54±0.14K (W m^−2)^−1, equivalent to 1.5±0.3 and 2.0±0.5K (3.7W m^−2)^−1, respectively. The latter quantity is equal to the lower bound of the ‘likely’ range for this quantity given by the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report. The uncertainty attached to the lower-bound equilibrium sensitivity permits us to state, within the assumptions of this analysis, that the equilibrium sensitivity is greater than 0.31K (W m^−2)^−1, equivalent to 1.16K(3.7W m^−2)^−1, at the 95% confidence level.

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of 9 climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.

The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

Emission of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from gasohol and ethanol vehicles

The exhaust emission of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) considered toxic to human health were investigated on two spark ignition light duty vehicles, one being gasohol (Gasohol, in Brazil, is the generic denomination for mixtures of pure gasoline plus 20-25% of anhydrous ethyl alcohol fuel (AEAF).)-fuelled and the other a flexible-fuel vehicle fuelled with hydrated ethanol. The influence of fuel type and quality, aged lubricant oil type and use of fuel additives on the formation of these compounds was tested using standardized tests identical to US FTP-75 cycle. PAH sampling and chemical analysis followed the basic recommendations of method TO-13 (United States. Environmental Protection Agency, 1999. Compendium Method TO-13A - Determination of polycyclic Aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in Ambient Air Using Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (CG/MS). Center for environmental research information, Cincinnati, p. 78), with the necessary modification for this particular application. Results showed that the total PAH emission factor varied from 41.9 mu g km(-1) to 612 mu g km(-1) in the gasohol vehicle, and from 11.7 mu g km(-1) to 27.4 mu g km(-1) in the ethanol-fuelled vehicle, a significant difference in favor of the ethanol vehicle. Generally, emission of light molecular weight PAHs was predominant, while high molecular weights PAHs were not detected. In terms of benzo(a)pyrene toxicity equivalence, emission factors varied from 0.00984 mu g TEQ km(-1) to 4.61 mu g TEQ km(-1) for the gasohol vehicle and from 0.0117 mu g TEQ km(-1) to 0.0218 mu g TEQ km(-1) in the ethanol vehicle. For the gasohol vehicle, results showed that the use of fuel additive causes a significant increase in the emission of naphthalene and phenanthrene at a confidence level of 90% or higher; the use of rubber solvent on gasohol showed a reduction in the emission of naphthalene and phenanthrene at the same confidence level; the use of synthetic oil instead of mineral oil also contributed significantly to a decrease in the emission of naphthalene and fluorene. In relation to the ethanol vehicle, the same factors were tested and showed no statistically significant influence on PAH emission. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Transition redshift: new kinematic constraints from supernovae

The transition redshift (deceleration/acceleration) is discussed by expanding the deceleration parameter to first order around its present value. A detailed study is carried out by considering two different parametrizations, q = q(0) + q(1)z and q = q(0) + q(1)z(1 + z)(-1), and the associated free parameters (q(0), q(1)) are constrained by three different supernovae (SNe) samples. A previous analysis by Riess et al. using the first expansion is slightly improved and confirmed in light of their recent data (Gold07 sample). However, by fitting the model with the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) type Ia sample, we find that the best fit to the redshift transition is z(t) = 0.61, instead of z(t) = 0.46 as derived by the High-z Supernovae Search (HZSNS) team. This result based in the SNLS sample is also in good agreement with the sample of Davis et al., z(t) = 0.60(-0.11)(+0.28) (1 sigma). Such results are in line with some independent analyses and accommodate more easily the concordance flat model (Lambda CDM). For both parametrizations, the three SNe Ia samples considered favour recent acceleration and past deceleration with a high degree of statistical confidence level. All the kinematic results presented here depend neither on the validity of general relativity nor on the matter-energy contents of the Universe.

Correlation of the highest-energy cosmic rays with the positions of nearby active galactic nuclei

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory provide evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of the cosmic rays with the highest-energies, which are correlated with the positions of relatively nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN) [Pierre Auger Collaboration, Science 318 (2007) 938]. The correlation has maximum significance for cosmic rays with energy greater than similar to 6 x 10(19) eV and AGN at a distance less than similar to 75 Mpc. We have confirmed the anisotropy at a confidence level of more than 99% through a test with parameters specified a priori, using an independent data set. The observed correlation is compatible with the hypothesis that cosmic rays with the highest-energies originate from extra-galactic sources close enough so that their flux is not significantly attenuated by interaction with the cosmic background radiation (the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz`min effect). The angular scale of the correlation observed is a few degrees, which suggests a predominantly light composition unless the magnetic fields are very weak outside the thin disk of our galaxy. Our present data do not identify AGN as the sources of cosmic rays unambiguously, and other candidate sources which are distributed as nearby AGN are not ruled out. We discuss the prospect of unequivocal identification of individual sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays within a few years of continued operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Absolute determination of soluble potassium in tea infusion by gamma-ray spectroscopy

Potassium content in tea brew was determined by gamma-ray spectroscopy, Using the 1461 keV gamma-ray fro M (40)K, the naturally occurring radioactive isotope of potassium. We measured radiation with a shielded HPGe detector from individual test samples of tea leaves, before and after infusion preparation, and from commercial instant tea powder. The correction factor for the gamma-ray self-absorption in the extended source was determined with the help of Monte-Carlo simulations. This gamma-ray spectroscopy technique enabled the absolute determination of potassium content with a relative uncertainty smaller than 4%, at the one standard deviation confidence level, showing the feasibility of this method. An experiment to evaluate a possible systematic Uncertainty due to K distribution heterogeneity in the sample was performed, with file result that the corresponding relative standard deviation is smaller than 2% at 95% confidence level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activated Copper Cathodes as Sensors for Nitrite Analysis

The increased surface area of copper electrodes upon applying a suitable potential protocol was characterized by atomic force microscopy images. Scanning electrochemical microscopy was used to demonstrate the enhanced reactivity of the generated surface. The modified electrode showed excellent catalytic activity towards nitrite reduction in acidic medium (pH 2). This new platform was used in the development of a fast and simple voltammetric method for nitrite determination. Commercial and rainwater spiked samples were analyzed and the data showed an excellent agreement with those obtained with a reference spectrophotometric method (Griess reaction) at a confidence level of 95% (Student`s t-test).

Determination of cadmium and lead in cetacean Dolphinidae tissue from the coast of Bahia state in Brazil by GFAAS

In the present study, cadmium and lead in the muscle, lung, liver and kidney of dolphins (Sotalia guianensis and Stenella clymene) of the Bahia coast in the northwest of Brazil were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Samples were digested using a diluted oxidant mixture (HNO(3) + H(2)O(2)) with a microwave heating program performed in five steps. The optimized temperatures and chemical modifier for the pyrolysis and atomization were 700 degrees C, 1400 degrees C and Pd plus Mg for Cd, and 900 degrees C, 1800 degrees C and NH(4)H(2)PO(4) for Pb, respectively. Characteristic masses and limits of detections (n = 20, 3 sigma) for Cd and Pb were 1.6 and 9.0 pg and 0.82 ng g(-1) and 0.50 ng g(-1), respectively. Repeatability ranged from 0.87 to 8.22% for Cd and 4.31 to 8.09% for Pb. The found concentrations presented no statistical differences at the 95% confidence level when compared with the ICP OES methods. Addition and recovery tests were also performed and the results ranged between 87 and 112% for both elements. Samples of cetacean Dolphinidae (S. guianensis and S. clymene) were analyzed, and the higher concentrations ranged from 0.09 to 46.2 mu g g(-1) for Cd and 0.04 to 0.47 mu g g(-1) for Pb in liver, and from 0.133 to 277 mu g g(-1) for Cd in the kidney. (C) 2010 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Development of a sequential injection-square wave voltammetry method for determination of paraquat in water samples employing the hanging mercury drop electrode

This work describes the development and optimization of a sequential injection method to automate the determination of paraquat by square-wave voltammetry employing a hanging mercury drop electrode. Automation by sequential injection enhanced the sampling throughput, improving the sensitivity and precision of the measurements as a consequence of the highly reproducible and efficient conditions of mass transport of the analyte toward the electrode surface. For instance, 212 analyses can be made per hour if the sample/standard solution is prepared off-line and the sequential injection system is used just to inject the solution towards the flow cell. In-line sample conditioning reduces the sampling frequency to 44 h(-1). Experiments were performed in 0.10 M NaCl, which was the carrier solution, using a frequency of 200 Hz, a pulse height of 25 mV, a potential step of 2 mV, and a flow rate of 100 mu L s(-1). For a concentration range between 0.010 and 0.25 mg L(-1), the current (i(p), mu A) read at the potential corresponding to the peak maximum fitted the following linear equation with the paraquat concentration (mg L(-1)): ip = (-20.5 +/- 0.3) Cparaquat -(0.02 +/- 0.03). The limits of detection and quantification were 2.0 and 7.0 mu g L(-1), respectively. The accuracy of the method was evaluated by recovery studies using spiked water samples that were also analyzed by molecular absorption spectrophotometry after reduction of paraquat with sodium dithionite in an alkaline medium. No evidence of statistically significant differences between the two methods was observed at the 95% confidence level.

Simultaneous determination of chromium and manganese in alumina by slurry sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry using NbC and NaF as modifiers

This paper reports a method for the direct and simultaneous determination of Cr and Mn in alumina by slurry sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (SiS-SIMAAS) using niobium carbide (NbC) as a graphite platform modifier and sodium fluoride (NaF) as a matrix modifier. 350 mu g of Nb were thermally deposited on the platform surface allowing the formation of NbC (mp 3500 degrees C) to minimize the reaction between aluminium and carbon of the pyrolytic platform, improving the graphite tube lifetime up to 150 heating cycles. A solution of 0.2 mol L(-1) NaF was used as matrix modifier for alumina dissolution as cryolite-based melt, allowing volatilization during pyrolysis step. Masses (c.a. 50 mg) of sample were suspended in 30 ml of 2.0% (v/v) of HNO(3). Slurry was manually homogenized before sampling. Aliquots of 20 mu l of analytical solutions and slurry samples were co-injected into the graphite tube with 20 mu l of the matrix modifier. In the best conditions of the heating program, pyrolysis and atomization temperatures were 1300 degrees C and 2400 degrees C, respectively. A step of 1000 degrees C was optimized allowing the alumina dissolution to form cryolite. The accuracy of the proposed method has been evaluated by the analysis of standard reference materials. The found concentrations presented no statistical differences compared to the certified values at 95% of the confidence level. Limits of detection were 66 ng g(-1) for Cr and 102 ng g(-1) for Mn and the characteristic masses were 10 and 13 pg for Cr and Mn, respectively.

Peat as a natural solid-phase for copper preconcentration and determination in a multicommuted flow system coupled to flame atomic absorption spectrometry

The physical and chemical characteristics of peat were assessed through measurement of pH, percentage of organic matter, cationic exchange capacity (CEC), elemental analysis, infrared spectroscopy and quantitative analysis of metals by ICP OES. Despite the material showed to be very acid in view of the percentage of organic matter, its CEC was significant, showing potential for retention of metal ions. This characteristic was exploited by coupling a peat mini-column to a flow system based on the multicommutation approach for the in-line copper concentration prior to flame atomic absorption spectrometric determination. Cu(II) ions were adsorbed at pH 4.5 and eluted with 0.50 mol L(-1) HNO(3). The influence of chemical and hydrodynamic parameters, such as sample pH, buffer concentration, eluent type and concentration, sample flow-rate and preconcentration time were investigated. Under the optimized conditions, a linear response was observed between 16 and 100 mu g L(-1), with a detection limit estimated as 3 mu g L(-1) at the 99.7% confidence level and an enrichment factor of 16. The relative standard deviation was estimated as 3.3% (n = 20). The mini-column was used for at least 100 sampling cycles without significant variation in the analytical response. Recoveries from copper spiked to lake water or groundwater as well as concentrates used in hemodialysis were in the 97.3-111 % range. The results obtained for copper determination in these samples agreed with those achieved by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GFAAS) at the 95% confidence level. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A green flow-based procedure for fluorimetric determination of acid-dissociable cyanide in natural waters exploiting multicommutation

A flow system designed with solenoid valves is proposed for determination of weak acid dissociable cyanide, based on the reaction with o-phthalaldehyde (OPA) and glycine yielding a highly fluorescent isoindole derivative. The proposed procedure minimizes the main drawbacks related to the reference batch procedure, based on reaction with barbituric acid and pyridine followed by spectrophotometric detection, i.e., use of toxic reagents, high reagent consumption and waste generation, low sampling rate, and poor sensitivity. Retention of the sample zone was exploited to increase the conversion rate of the analyte with minimized sample dispersion. Linear response (r=0.999) was observed for cyanide concentrations in the range 1-200 mu g L(-1), with a detection limit (99.7% confidence level) of 0.5 mu g L(-1)(19 nmol L(-1)). The sampling rate and coefficient of variation (n=10) were estimated as 22 measurements per hour and 1.4%, respectively. The results of determination of weak acid dissociable cyanide in natural water samples were in agreement with those achieved by the batch reference procedure at the 95% confidence level. Additionally to the improvement in the analytical features in comparison with those of the flow system with continuous reagent addition (sensitivity and sampling rate 90 and 83% higher, respectively), the consumption of OPA was 230-fold lower.

Direct determination of iron in sand using solid sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry

A fast and reliable method for the direct determination of iron in sand by solid sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry was developed. A Zeeman-effect 3-field background corrector was used to decrease the sensitivity of spectrometer measurements. This strategy allowed working with up to 200 mu g of samples, thus improving the representativity. Using samples with small particle sizes (1-50 mu m) and adding 5 mu g Pd as chemical modifier, it was possible to obtain suitable calibration curves with aqueous reference solutions. The pyrolysis and atomization temperatures for the optimized heating program were 1400 and 2500 degrees C, respectively. The characteristic mass, based on integrated absorbance, was 56 pg, and the detection limits, calculated considering the variability of 20 consecutive measurements of platform inserted without sample was 32 pg. The accuracy of the procedure was checked with the analysis of two reference materials (IPT 62 and 63). The determined concentrations were in agreement with the recommended values (95% confidence level). Five sand samples were analyzed, and a good agreement (95% confidence level) was observed using the proposed method and conventional flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The relative standard deviations were lower than 25% (n = 5). The tube and boat platform lifetimes were around 1000 and 250 heating cycles, respectively.