A model of shadow banking

We present a model of shadow banking in which financial intermediaries originate and trade loans, assemble these loans into diversified portfolios, and then finance these portfolios externally with riskless debt. In this model: i) outside investor wealth drives the demand for riskless debt and indirectly for securitization, ii) intermediary assets and leverage move together as in Adrian and Shin (2010), and iii) intermediaries increase their exposure to systematic risk as they reduce their idiosyncratic risk through diversification, as in Acharya, Schnabl, and Suarez (2010). Under rational expectations, the shadow banking system is stable and improves welfare. When investors and intermediaries neglect tail risks, however, the expansion of risky lending and the concentration of risks in the intermediaries create financial fragility and fluctuations in liquidity over time.

Competing engines of growth: Innovation and standardization

We study a dynamic general equilibrium model where innovation takes theform of the introduction of new goods whose production requires skilled workers.Innovation is followed by a costly process of standardization, whereby these newgoods are adapted to be produced using unskilled labor. Our framework highlightsa number of novel results. First, standardization is both an engine of growth anda potential barrier to it. As a result, growth is an inverse U-shaped function ofthe standardization rate (and of competition). Second, we characterize the growthand welfare maximizing speed of standardization. We show how optimal protection of intellectual property rights affecting the cost of standardization vary withthe skill-endowment, the elasticity of substitution between goods and other parameters. Third, we show that, depending on how competition between innovatingand standardizing firms is modelled and on parameter values, a new type of multiplicity of equilibria may arise. Finally, we study the implications of our model forthe skill-premium and we illustrate novel reasons for linking North-South trade tointellectual property rights protection.

Neglected risks, financial innovation and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Un modèle de soins adapté aux hospitalisations psychiatriques brèves [A care model adapted to brief psychiatric hospitalizations]

Practice of psychiatric hospitalization has considerably changed: deinstitutionnalization, brief hospitalizations, opened units, partnership with patients and complementarity with community mental health services. These changes appear simultaneously in most of industrialized countries. They are the result of social changes, evolution of mental health care, and a sharper perception of deinsertion risks through long term hospitalizations. Values of psychiatric hospital were based on a closed and protective place, where community life prepared to life in the community; they are now founded on an opened place where care aims at resolving crisis and keeping closely in touch with the community. These modifications imply to rethink hospital psychiatric care and their connections with environment. This paper describe a model of care developed in a first admission psychiatric unit.

Specialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU

Most optimistic views, based on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) literature, have concluded that the probability of asymmetric shocks to occur at anational level will tend to diminish in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)as a result of the intensification of the integration process during the most recent years. Therefore, since Economic Geography Theories predict a higherspecialisation of regions, it is expected that asymmetric shocks will increase.Previous studies have examined to what extent asymmetric shocks have been relevant in the past using, mainly, static measures of asymmetries such as the correlation coefficients between series of shocks previously calculated from astructural VAR model (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1992).In this paper, we study the evolution of manufacturing specific asymmetries in Europe from a dynamic point of view (applying the modelproposed by Haldane and Hall, 1991) in order to obtain new evidence about potential risks of EMU.

Specialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU

Most optimistic views, based on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) literature, have concluded that the probability of asymmetric shocks to occur at anational level will tend to diminish in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)as a result of the intensification of the integration process during the most recent years. Therefore, since Economic Geography Theories predict a higherspecialisation of regions, it is expected that asymmetric shocks will increase.Previous studies have examined to what extent asymmetric shocks have been relevant in the past using, mainly, static measures of asymmetries such as the correlation coefficients between series of shocks previously calculated from astructural VAR model (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1992).In this paper, we study the evolution of manufacturing specific asymmetries in Europe from a dynamic point of view (applying the modelproposed by Haldane and Hall, 1991) in order to obtain new evidence about potential risks of EMU.

What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

Monte Carlo study of a kinetic lattice model with random diffusion of disorder

We report Monte Carlo results for a nonequilibrium Ising-like model in two and three dimensions. Nearest-neighbor interactions J change sign randomly with time due to competing kinetics. There follows a fast and random, i.e., spin-configuration-independent diffusion of Js, of the kind that takes place in dilute metallic alloys when magnetic ions diffuse. The system exhibits steady states of the ferromagnetic (antiferromagnetic) type when the probability p that J>0 is large (small) enough. No counterpart to the freezing phenomena found in quenched spin glasses occurs. We compare our results with existing mean-field and exact ones, and obtain information about critical behavior.

An Interdomain PKI Model Based on Trust Lists

The penetration of PKI technology in the market is moving slowly due to interoperability concerns. Main causes are not technical but political and social since there is no trust development model that appropriately deals with multidomain PKIs. We propose a new architecture that on one hand considers that trust is not an homogeneous property but tied to a particular relation, and on the other hand, trust management must be performed through specialized entities that can evaluate its risks and threads. The model is based on trust certificate lists that allows users to hold a personalized trust view without having to get involved in technical details. The model dynamically adapts tothe context changes thanks to a new certificate extension, we have called TrustProviderLink (TPL).

Global Distributed Delivery Model for Internet Service Provider

Globaalin talouden rakenteet muuttuvat jatkuvasti. Yritykset toimivat kansainvälisillä markkinoilla aiempaa enemmän. Tuotannon lisäämiseksi monet yritykset ovat ulkoistaneet tuotteidensa tuki- ja ylläpitotoiminnot halvan työvoiman maihin. Yritykset voivat tällöin keskittää toimintansa ydinosamiseensa. Vapautuneita resursseja voidaan käyttää yrityksen sisäisessä tuotekehityksessä ja panostaa seuraavan sukupolven tuotteiden ja teknologioiden kehittämiseen. Diplomityö esittelee Globaalisti hajautetun toimitusmallin Internet-palveluntarjoajalle jossa tuotteiden tuki- ja ylläpito on ulkoistettu Intiaan. Teoriaosassa esitellään erilaisia toimitusmalleja ja keskitytään erityisesti hajautettuun toimitusmalliin. Tämän lisäksi luetellaan valintakriteerejä joilla voidaan arvioida projektin soveltuvuutta ulkoistettavaksi sekä esitellään mahdollisuuksia ja uhkia jotka sisältyvät globaaliin ulkoistusprosessiin. Käytäntöosassa esitellään globaali palvelun toimittamisprosessi joka on kehitetty Internet-palveluntarjoajan tarpeisiin.

Consensus recommendations on training and competing in the heat.

Exercising in the heat induces thermoregulatory and other physiological strain that can lead to impairments in endurance exercise capacity. The purpose of this consensus statement is to provide up-to-date recommendations to optimize performance during sporting activities undertaken in hot ambient conditions. The most important intervention one can adopt to reduce physiological strain and optimize performance is to heat acclimatize. Heat acclimatization should comprise repeated exercise-heat exposures over 1-2 weeks. In addition, athletes should initiate competition and training in a euhydrated state and minimize dehydration during exercise. Following the development of commercial cooling systems (e.g., cooling vest), athletes can implement cooling strategies to facilitate heat loss or increase heat storage capacity before training or competing in the heat. Moreover, event organizers should plan for large shaded areas, along with cooling and rehydration facilities, and schedule events in accordance with minimizing the health risks of athletes, especially in mass participation events and during the first hot days of the year. Following the recent examples of the 2008 Olympics and the 2014 FIFA World Cup, sport governing bodies should consider allowing additional (or longer) recovery periods between and during events for hydration and body cooling opportunities when competitions are held in the heat.

Risks in R&D Collaboration between Small and Large Firms

The main aim of this thesis was to find out what kinds of risks arise from collabo-ration in R&D between small and large firms. The suitability and gain of some buyer/supplier risk frameworks in examining of R&D collaboration has been in-vestigated. A risk model has been based on the buyer/supplier risks models found in the literature. Its applicability has been tested empirically by means of theme interviews with firm representatives. The risk classification framework received some confirmation. But the study also showed that the theoretical framework was not completely adequate, as a new risk class arose from communication. Collaboration causes risks, and these risks should be taken into account when R&D collaboration is planned. The advantage of risk examination is the possibility to decrease failures and losses, and to in-crease possibilities for success and economical benefits. This study should be used as a managerial analysis tool in trying to understand the form and concept of risk in risk expectancy.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Consensus recommendations on training and competing in the heat.

Exercising in the heat induces thermoregulatory and other physiological strain that can lead to impairments in endurance exercise capacity. The purpose of this consensus statement is to provide up-to-date recommendations to optimise performance during sporting activities undertaken in hot ambient conditions. The most important intervention one can adopt to reduce physiological strain and optimise performance is to heat acclimatise. Heat acclimatisation should comprise repeated exercise-heat exposures over 1-2 weeks. In addition, athletes should initiate competition and training in a euhydrated state and minimise dehydration during exercise. Following the development of commercial cooling systems (eg, cooling-vest), athletes can implement cooling strategies to facilitate heat loss or increase heat storage capacity before training or competing in the heat. Moreover, event organisers should plan for large shaded areas, along with cooling and rehydration facilities, and schedule events in accordance with minimising the health risks of athletes, especially in mass participation events and during the first hot days of the year. Following the recent examples of the 2008 Olympics and the 2014 FIFA World Cup, sport governing bodies should consider allowing additional (or longer) recovery periods between and during events, for hydration and body cooling opportunities, when competitions are held in the heat.