Assessing the distribution of social-ecological resilience and risk: Ireland as a case study of the uneven impact of famine

Explanations for the causes of famine and food insecurity often reside at a high level of aggregation or abstraction. Popular models within famine studies have often emphasised the role of prime movers such as population stress, or the political-economic structure of access channels, as key determinants of food security. Explanation typically resides at the macro level, obscuring the presence of substantial within-country differences in the manner in which such stressors operate. This study offers an alternative approach to analyse the uneven nature of food security, drawing on the Great Irish famine of 1845–1852. Ireland is often viewed as a classical case of Malthusian stress, whereby population outstripped food supply under a pre-famine demographic regime of expanded fertility. Many have also pointed to Ireland's integration with capitalist markets through its colonial relationship with the British state, and country-wide system of landlordism, as key determinants of local agricultural activity. Such models are misguided, ignoring both substantial complexities in regional demography, and the continuity of non-capitalistic, communal modes of land management long into the nineteenth century. Drawing on resilience ecology and complexity theory, this paper subjects a set of aggregate data on pre-famine Ireland to an optimisation clustering procedure, in order to discern the potential presence of distinctive social–ecological regimes. Based on measures of demography, social structure, geography, and land tenure, this typology reveals substantial internal variation in regional social–ecological structure, and vastly differing levels of distress during the peak famine months. This exercise calls into question the validity of accounts which emphasise uniformity of structure, by revealing a variety of regional regimes, which profoundly mediated local conditions of food security. Future research should therefore consider the potential presence of internal variations in resilience and risk exposure, rather than seeking to characterise cases based on singular macro-dynamics and stressors alone.

Multiuser Cognitive Relay Networks: Joint Impact of Direct and Relay Communications

In this paper, we propose a multiuser cognitive relay network, where multiple secondary sources communicate with a secondary destination through the assistance of a secondary relay in the presence of secondary direct links and multiple primary receivers. We consider the two relaying protocols of amplify-and-forward (AF) and decode-and-forward (DF), and take into account the availability of direct links from the secondary sources to the secondary destination. With this in mind, we propose an optimal solution for cognitive multiuser scheduling by selecting the optimal secondary source, which maximizes the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the secondary destination using maximal ratio combining. This is done by taking into account both the direct link and the relay link in the multiuser selection criterion. For both AF and DF relaying protocols, we first derive closed-form expressions for the outage probability and then provide the asymptotic outage probability, which determines the diversity behavior of the multiuser cognitive relay network. Finally, this paper is corroborated by representative numerical examples.

Cognitive Single Carrier Systems: Joint Impact of Multiple Licensed Transceivers

In this paper, the impact of interference from multiple licensed transceivers on cognitive underlay single carrier systems is examined. Specifically, the situation is considered in which the secondary network is limited by three key parameters: 1) maximum transmit power at the secondary transmitter, 2) peak interference power at the primary receivers, and 3) interference power from the primary transmitters. For this cognitive underlay single carrier system, the signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) of the secondary network is obtained for transmission over frequency selective fading channels. Based on this, a new closedform expression for the cumulative distribution function of the SIR is evaluated, from which the outage probability and the ergodic capacity are derived. Further insights are established by analyzing the asymptotic outage probability and the asymptotic ergodic capacity in the high transmission power regime. In particular, it is corroborated that the asymptotic outage diversity gain is equal to the multipath gain of the frequency selective channel in the secondary network. The asymptotic ergodic capacity also gives new insight into the additional power cost for different network parameters while maintaining a specified target ergodic capacity. Illustrative numerical examples are presented to validate the outage probability and ergodic capacity under different interference power profiles.

Security Enhancement of Cooperative Single Carrier Systems

In this paper, the impact of multiple active eavesdroppers on cooperative single carrier systems with multiple relays and multiple destinations is examined. To achieve the secrecy diversity gains in the form of opportunistic selection, a two-stage scheme is proposed for joint relay and destination selection, in which, after the selection of the relay with the minimum effective maximum signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to a cluster of eavesdroppers, the destination that has the maximum SNR from the chosen relay is selected. In order to accurately assess the secrecy performance, the exact and asymptotic expressions are obtained in closed-form for several security metrics including the secrecy outage probability, the probability of non-zero secrecy rate, and the ergodic secrecy rate in frequency selective fading. Based on the asymptotic analysis, key design parameters such as secrecy diversity gain, secrecy array gain, secrecy multiplexing gain, and power cost are characterized, from which new insights are drawn. Moreover, it is concluded that secrecy performance limits occur when the average received power at the eavesdropper is proportional to the counterpart at the destination. Specifically, for the secrecy outage probability, it is confirmed that the secrecy diversity gain collapses to zero with outage floor, whereas for the ergodic secrecy rate, it is confirmed confirm that its slope collapses to zero with capacity ceiling.

Electron-induced hydrogen loss in uracil in a water cluster environment

Low-energy electron-impact hydrogen loss due to dissociative electron attachment (DEA) to the uracil and thymine molecules in a water cluster environment is investigated theoretically. Only the A'-resonance contribution, describing the near-threshold behavior of DEA, is incorporated. Calculations are based on the nonlocal complex potential theory and the multiple scattering theory, and are performed for a model target with basic properties of uracil and thymine, surrounded by five water molecules. The DEA cross section is strongly enhanced when the attaching molecule is embedded in a water cluster. This growth is due to two effects: the increase of the resonance lifetime and the negative shift in the resonance position due to interaction of the intermediate negative ion with the surrounding water molecules. A similar effect was earlier found in DEA to chlorofluorocarbons. 

A cluster randomised controlled trial evaluation and cost-effectiveness analysis of the Roots of Empathy schools-based programme for improving social and emotional wellbeing outcomes among 8-9 year olds in Northern Ireland

A substantial body of evidence suggest that well designed school based prevention programmes can be effective in improving a variety of social, health and academic outcomes for children and young people. This poster presents the methodology for evaluating the Roots of Empathy (ROE) programme. ROE is a universal programme delivered on a whole-class basis for one academic year. It consists of 27 lessons that run over a school year and is based around a monthly classroom visit by an infant and parent, typically recruited from the local community, whom the class 'adopts' at the start of the school year. The evaluation aims to evaluate the immediate and longer term impact of ROE on social and emotional wellbeing outcomes among 8-9 year old pupils, as well as evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme.

Increasing Prevalence of Myopia in Europe and the Impact of Education

PURPOSE: To investigate whether myopia is becoming more common across Europe and explore whether increasing education levels, an important environmental risk factor for myopia, might explain any temporal trend.

DESIGN: Meta-analysis of population-based, cross-sectional studies from the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

PARTICIPANTS: The E(3) Consortium is a collaborative network of epidemiological studies of common eye diseases in adults across Europe. Refractive data were available for 61 946 participants from 15 population-based studies performed between 1990 and 2013; participants had a range of median ages from 44 to 78 years.

METHODS: Noncycloplegic refraction, year of birth, and highest educational level achieved were obtained for all participants. Myopia was defined as a mean spherical equivalent ≤-0.75 diopters. A random-effects meta-analysis of age-specific myopia prevalence was performed, with sequential analyses stratified by year of birth and highest level of educational attainment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variation in age-specific myopia prevalence for differing years of birth and educational level.

RESULTS: There was a significant cohort effect for increasing myopia prevalence across more recent birth decades; age-standardized myopia prevalence increased from 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.6-18.1) to 23.5% (95% CI, 23.2-23.7) in those born between 1910 and 1939 compared with 1940 and 1979 (P = 0.03). Education was significantly associated with myopia; for those completing primary, secondary, and higher education, the age-standardized prevalences were 25.4% (CI, 25.0-25.8), 29.1% (CI, 28.8-29.5), and 36.6% (CI, 36.1-37.2), respectively. Although more recent birth cohorts were more educated, this did not fully explain the cohort effect. Compared with the reference risk of participants born in the 1920s with only primary education, higher education or being born in the 1960s doubled the myopia prevalence ratio-2.43 (CI, 1.26-4.17) and 2.62 (CI, 1.31-5.00), respectively-whereas individuals born in the 1960s and completing higher education had approximately 4 times the reference risk: a prevalence ratio of 3.76 (CI, 2.21-6.57).

CONCLUSIONS: Myopia is becoming more common in Europe; although education levels have increased and are associated with myopia, higher education seems to be an additive rather than explanatory factor. Increasing levels of myopia carry significant clinical and economic implications, with more people at risk of the sight-threatening complications associated with high myopia.

Distributed Massive MIMO in Cellular Networks: Impact of Imperfect Hardware and Number of Oscillators

Distributed massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) combines the array gain of coherent MIMO processing with the proximity gains of distributed antenna setups. In this paper, we analyze how transceiver hardware impairments affect the downlink with maximum ratio transmission. We derive closed-form spectral efficiencies expressions and study their asymptotic behavior as the number of the antennas increases. We prove a scaling law on the hardware quality, which reveals that massive MIMO is resilient to additive distortions, while multiplicative phase noise is a limiting factor. It is also better to have separate oscillators at each antenna than one per BS.

Impact of prosthodontic rehabilitation on the chewing efficiency of partially dentate older patients

Objectives: This study compared two tooth replacement strategies for partially dentate older patients namely; removable partial dentures (RPDs) and functionally orientated treatment based on the shortened dental arch (SDA) concept. Patients were compared in terms of chewing efficiency after prosthodontic rehabilitation. Methods: Chewing efficiency was assessed electronically by a two-colour gum-mixing test. Specimens were assembled from two different colours of chewing gums with a size of 30 x 18 x 3 mm. After participants chewed for 20 cycles, the gum was retrieved, flattened to a 1-mm-thick wafer, and digitized with a flatbed image scanner. The pixels of unmixed colour in the specimen were counted by means of Adobe Photoshop 2.0R software (Adobe Systems, San Jose, CA, USA), and the ratio to the pixels of the entire frame was computed. This ratio is called the Unmixed Fraction (UF). The more efficiently the specimen is chewed, the less unmixed colour remains, and the smaller the gum becomes. Consequently, a low unmixed fraction corresponds to good chewing efficiency. Results: 32 patients completed the chewing efficiency test (17 RPDs and 15 SDA). The mean UF recorded for the SDA group was not significantly different to that recorded for the RPD group (p>0.05, unpaired t-test). Conclusion: These results indicate that prosthodontic rehabilitation according to the principles of the SDA is equivalent to RPDs in terms of restoration of chewing ability for partially dentate older patients.

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Effectiveness of a Multifaceted Intervention for Potentially Inappropriate Prescribing in Older Patients in Primary Care: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial (OPTI-SCRIPT Study)

PURPOSE Potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) is common in older people and can result in increased morbidity, adverse drug events, and hospitalizations. The OPTI-SCRIPT study (Optimizing Prescribing for Older People in Primary Care, a cluster-randomized controlled trial) tested the effectiveness of a multifaceted intervention for reducing PIP in primary care.

METHODS We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial among 21 general practitioner practices and 196 patients with PIP. Intervention participants received a complex, multifaceted intervention incorporating academic detailing; review of medicines with web-based pharmaceutical treatment algorithms that provide recommended alternative-treatment options; and tailored patient information leaflets. Control practices delivered usual care and received simple, patient-level PIP feedback. Primary outcomes were the proportion of patients with PIP and the mean number of potentially inappropriate prescriptions. We performed intention-to-treat analysis using random-effects regression.

RESULTS All 21 practices and 190 patients were followed. At intervention completion, patients in the intervention group had significantly lower odds of having PIP than patients in the control group (adjusted odds ratio = 0.32; 95% CI, 0.15–0.70; P = .02). The mean number of PIP drugs in the intervention group was 0.70, compared with 1.18 in the control group (P = .02). The intervention group was almost one-third less likely than the control group to have PIP drugs at intervention completion, but this difference was not significant (incidence rate ratio = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.50–1.02; P = .49). The intervention was effective in reducing proton pump inhibitor prescribing (adjusted odds ratio = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.14–0.68; P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS The OPTI-SCRIPT intervention incorporating academic detailing with a pharmacist, and a review of medicines with web-based pharmaceutical treatment algorithms, was effective in reducing PIP, particularly in modifying prescribing of proton pump inhibitors, the most commonly occurring PIP drugs nationally.

Impact of Residual Transmit RF Impairments on Training-Based MIMO Systems

Radio-frequency (RF) impairments, which intimately exist in wireless communication systems, can severely limit the performance of multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems. Although we can resort to compensation schemes to mitigate some of these impairments, a certain amount of residual impairments always persists. In this paper, we consider a training-based point-to-point MIMO system with residual transmit RF impairments (RTRI) using spatial multiplexing transmission. Specifically, we derive a new linear channel estimator for the proposed model, and show that RTRI create an estimation error floor in the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime. Moreover, we derive closed-form expressions for the signal-to-noise-plus-interference ratio (SINR) distributions, along with analytical expressions for the ergodic achievable rates of zero-forcing, maximum ratio combining, and minimum mean-squared error receivers, respectively. In addition, we optimize the ergodic achievable rates with respect to the training sequence length and demonstrate that finite dimensional systems with RTRI generally require more training at high SNRs than those with ideal hardware. Finally, we extend our analysis to large-scale MIMO configurations, and derive deterministic equivalents of the ergodic achievable rates. It is shown that, by deploying large receive antenna arrays, the extra training requirements due to RTRI can be eliminated. In fact, with a sufficiently large number of receive antennas, systems with RTRI may even need less training than systems with ideal hardware.

Determinants and heritability of intraocular pressure and cup-to-disc ratio in a defined older population.

PURPOSE:

To investigate the heritability of intraocular pressure (IOP) and cup-to-disc ratio (CDR) in an older well-defined population.

DESIGN:

Family-based cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS:

Through the population-based Salisbury Eye Evaluation study, we recruited 726 siblings (mean age, 74.7 years) in 284 sibships.

METHODS:

Intraocular pressure and CDR were measured bilaterally for all participants. The presence or absence of glaucoma was determined by a glaucoma specialist for all probands on the basis of visual field, optic nerve appearance, and history. The heritability of IOP was calculated as twice the residual between-sibling correlation of IOP using linear regression and generalized estimating equations after adjusting for age, gender, mean arterial pressure, race, self-reported diabetes status, and history of systemic steroid use. The heritability of CDR was calculated using the same model and adjustments as above, while also adjusting for IOP.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Heritability and determinants of IOP and CDR, and impact of siblings' glaucoma status on IOP and CDR.

RESULTS:

We estimated the heritability to be 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.46) for IOP and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.35-0.76) for CDR in this population. Mean IOP in siblings of glaucomatous probands was statistically significantly higher than in siblings of normal probands (mean difference, 1.02 mmHg; P = 0.017). The mean CDR in siblings of glaucomatous probands was 0.07 (or 19%) larger than in siblings of glaucoma suspect referrals (P = 0.045) and siblings of normal probands (P = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS:

In this elderly population, we found CDR to be highly heritable and IOP to be moderately heritable. On average, siblings of glaucoma patients had higher IOPs and larger CDRs than siblings of nonglaucomatous probands.

Electron-Impact Uncertainty Analysis and its Impact on Certain Temperature Diagnostics

In this study we calculate the electron-impact uncertainties in atomic data for direct ionization and recombination and investigate the role of these uncertainties on spectral diagnostics. We outline a systematic approach to assigning meaningful uncertainties that vary with electron temperature. Once these uncertainty parameters have been evaluated, we can then calculate the uncertainties on key diagnostics through a Monte Carlo routine, using the Astrophysical Emission Code (APEC) [Smith et al. 2001]. We incorporate these uncertainties into well known temperature diagnostics, such as the Lyman alpha versus resonance line ratio and the G ratio. We compare these calculations to a study performed by [Testa et al. 2004], where significant discrepancies in the two diagnostic ratios were observed. We conclude that while the atomic physics uncertainties play a noticeable role in the discrepancies observed by Testa, they do not explain all of them. This indicates that there is another physical process occurring in the system that is not being taken into account. This work is supported in part by the National Science Foundation REU and Department of Defense ASSURE programs under NSF Grant no. 1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution.

Implementation of a new atomic basis for the He i equilibrium line ratio technique for electron temperature and density diagnostic in the SOL for H-mode plasmas in DIII-D

Evaluating the ratio of selected helium lines allows for measurement of electron densities and temperatures. This technique is applied for L-mode plasmas at TEXTOR (O. Schmitz et al., Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 50 (2008) 115004). We report our first efforts to extend it to H-mode plasma diagnostics in DIII-D. This technique depends on the accuracy of the atomic data used in the collisional radiative model (CRM). We present predictions for the electron temperatures and densities by using recently calculated R-Matrix With Pseudostates (RMPS) and Convergent Close-Coupling (CCC) electron-impact excitation and ionization data. We include contributions from higher Rydberg states by means of the projection matrix. These effects become significant for high electron density conditions, which are typical in H-mode. We apply a non-equilibrium model for the time propagation of the ionization balance to predict line emission profiles from experimental H-mode data from DIII-D. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.