823 resultados para catchments groundwater geophysics hydrology conceptual model


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La réflexion est considérée comme un élément significatif de la pédagogie et de la pratique médicales sans qu’il n’existe de consensus sur sa définition ou sur sa modélisation. Comme la réflexion prend concurremment plusieurs sens, elle est difficile à opérationnaliser. Une définition et un modèle standard sont requis afin d’améliorer le développement d’applications pratiques de la réflexion. Dans ce mémoire, nous identifions, explorons et analysons thématiquement les conceptualisations les plus influentes de la réflexion, et développons de nouveaux modèle et définition. La réflexion est définie comme le processus de s’engager (le « soi » (S)) dans des interactions attentives, critiques, exploratoires et itératives (ACEI) avec ses pensées et ses actions (PA), leurs cadres conceptuels sous-jacents (CC), en visant à les changer et en examinant le changement lui-même (VC). Notre modèle conceptuel comprend les cinq composantes internes de la réflexion et les éléments extrinsèques qui l’influencent.

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Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

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The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

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While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM-ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km2) over the period of 1983−2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b-glacio-nival to nivo-glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Radio Frequency Identification Technology (RFID) adoption in healthcare settings has the potential to reduce errors, improve patient safety, streamline operational processes and enable the sharing of information throughout supply chains. RFID adoption in the English NHS is limited to isolated pilot studies. Firstly, this study investigates the drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption in the English NHS from the perspective of the GS1 Healthcare User Group (HUG) tasked with coordinating adoption across private and public sectors. Secondly a conceptual model has been developed and deployed, combining two of foresight’s most popular methods; scenario planning and technology roadmapping. The model addresses the weaknesses of each foresight technique as well as capitalizing on their individual, inherent strengths. Semi structured interviews, scenario planning workshops and a technology roadmapping exercise were conducted with the members of the HUG over an 18-month period. An action research mode of enquiry was utilized with a thematic analysis approach for the identification and discussion of the drivers and inhibitors of RFID adoption. The results of the conceptual model are analysed in comparison to other similar models. There are implications for managers responsible for RFID adoption in both the NHS and its commercial partners, and for foresight practitioners. Managers can leverage the insights gained from identifying the drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption by making efforts to influence the removal of inhibitors and supporting the continuation of the drivers. The academic contribution of this aspect of the thesis is in the field of RFID adoption in healthcare settings. Drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption in the English NHS are compared to those found in other settings. The implication for technology foresight practitioners is a proof of concept of a model combining scenario planning and technology roadmapping using a novel process. The academic contribution to the field of technology foresight is the conceptual development of foresight model that combines two popular techniques and then a deployment of the conceptual foresight model in a healthcare setting exploring the future of RFID technology.

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Geochemical and geophysical approaches have been used to investigate the freshwater and saltwater dynamics in the coastal Biscayne Aquifer and Biscayne Bay. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and concentrations of Sr2+ and Ca2+ were combined in two geochemical mixing models to provide estimates of the various freshwater inputs (precipitation, canal water, and groundwater) to Biscayne Bay and the coastal canal system in South Florida. Shallow geophysical electromagnetic and direct current resistivity surveys were used to image the geometry and stratification of the saltwater mixing zone in the near coastal (less than 1km inland) Biscayne Aquifer. The combined stable isotope and trace metal models suggest a ratio of canal input-precipitation-groundwater of 38%–52%–10% in the wet season and 37%–58%–5% in the dry season with an error of 25%, where most (20%) of the error was attributed to the isotope regression model, while the remaining 5% error was attributed to the Sr2+/Ca2+ mixing model. These models suggest rainfall is the dominate source of freshwater to Biscayne Bay. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for less than 2% of the total input. A similar Sr 2+/Ca2+ tracer model indicates precipitation is the dominate source in 9 out of 10 canals that discharge into Biscayne Bay. The two-component mixing model converged for 100% of the freshwater canal samples in this study with 63% of the water contributed to the canals coming from precipitation and 37% from groundwater inputs ±4%. There was a seasonal shift from 63% precipitation input in the dry season to 55% precipitation input in the wet season. The three end-member mixing model converged for only 60% of the saline canal samples possibly due to non-conservative behavior of Sr2+ and Ca2+ in saline groundwater discharging into the canal system. Electromagnetic and Direct Current resistivity surveys were successful at locating and estimating the geometry and depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne Aquifer at two near coastal sites. A saltwater interface that deepened as the survey moved inland was detected with a maximum interpreted depth to the interface of 15 meters, approximately 0.33 km inland from the shoreline. ^

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We developed a conceptual ecological model (CEM) for invasive species to help understand the role invasive exotics have in ecosystem ecology and their impacts on restoration activities. Our model, which can be applied to any invasive species, grew from the eco-regional conceptual models developed for Everglades restoration. These models identify ecological drivers, stressors, effects and attributes; we integrated the unique aspects of exotic species invasions and effects into this conceptual hierarchy. We used the model to help identify important aspects of invasion in the development of an invasive exotic plant ecological indicator, which is described a companion paper in this special issue journal. A key aspect of the CEM is that it is a general ecological model that can be tailored to specific cases and species, as the details of any invasion are unique to that invasive species. Our model encompasses the temporal and spatial changes that characterize invasion, identifying the general conditions that allow a species to become invasive in a de novo environment; it then enumerates the possible effects exotic species may have collectively and individually at varying scales and for different ecosystem properties, once a species becomes invasive. The model provides suites of characteristics and processes, as well as hypothesized causal relationships to consider when thinking about the effects or potential effects of an invasive exotic and how restoration efforts will affect these characteristics and processes. In order to illustrate how to use the model as a blueprint for applying a similar approach to other invasive species and ecosystems, we give two examples of using this conceptual model to evaluate the status of two south Florida invasive exotic plant species (melaleuca and Old World climbing fern) and consider potential impacts of these invasive species on restoration.

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The Florida Everglades is an oligotrophic wetland system with tree islands as one of its most prominent landscape features. Total soil phosphorus concentrations on tree islands can be 6 to 100 times greater than phosphorus levels in the surrounding marshes and sloughs, making tree islands nutrient hotspots. Several mechanisms are believed to redistribute phosphorus to tree islands: subsurface water flows generated by evapotranspiration of trees, higher deposition rates of dry fallout, deposition of guano by birds and other animals, groundwater upwelling, and bedrock mineralization by tree exudates. A conceptual model is proposed, in which the focused redistribution of limiting nutrients, especially phosphorus, onto tree islands controls their maintenance and expansion. Because of increased primary production and peat accretion rates, the redistribution of phosphorus can result in an increase in both tree island elevation and size. Human changes to hydrology have greatly decreased the number and size of tree islands in parts of the Everglades. The proposed model suggests that the preservation of existing tree islands, and ultimately of the Everglades landscape, requires the maintenance of these phosphorus redistribution mechanisms.

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There are various principles for layout design such as balance, rhythm, unity and harmony, but each principle has often been introduced as a separate concept rather than within an integrated and systematic structure, so that designers and design students have to keep practices for the acquisition of skills. The paper seeks to develop a conceptual framework for a systematic mapping of layout design principles by using Yin and Yang and the Five Elements. Yin and Yang theory explains all natural phenomena with its own conceptual model and facilitates finding harmony and balance between the visual elements in terms of systematic and organic relations. Most common and well-known layout design principles are defined with 10 different resources such as design books and articles, and have been remapped following with the structure of Yin and Yang and the Five Elements. A systematic framework explaining the relationships of design principles was created and 32 design students participated in its efficiency test. The outcome suggests there is a high possibility that the framework can be used in professional fields and design education.

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Design teams are confronted with the quandary of choosing apposite building control systems to suit the needs of particular intelligent building projects, due to the availability of innumerable ‘intelligent’ building products and a dearth of inclusive evaluation tools. This paper is organised to develop a model for facilitating the selection evaluation for intelligent HVAC control systems for commercial intelligent buildings. To achieve these objectives, systematic research activities have been conducted to first develop, test and refine the general conceptual model using consecutive surveys; then, to convert the developed conceptual framework into a practical model; and, finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model by means of expert validation. The results of the surveys are that ‘total energy use’ is perceived as the top selection criterion, followed by the‘system reliability and stability’, ‘operating and maintenance costs’, and ‘control of indoor humidity and temperature’. This research not only presents a systematic and structured approach to evaluate candidate intelligent HVAC control system against the critical selection criteria (CSC), but it also suggests a benchmark for the selection of one control system candidate against another.

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As more and more information is available on the Web finding quality and reliable information is becoming harder. To help solve this problem, Web search models need to incorporate users’ cognitive styles. This paper reports the preliminary results from a user study exploring the relationships between Web users’ searching behavior and their cognitive style. The data was collected using a questionnaire, Web search logs and think-aloud strategy. The preliminary findings reveal a number of cognitive factors, such as information searching processes, results evaluations and cognitive style, having an influence on users’ Web searching behavior. Among these factors, the cognitive style of the user was observed to have a greater impact. Based on the key findings, a conceptual model of Web searching and cognitive styles is presented.

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Objective: Parental illness (PI) may have adverse impacts on youth and family functioning. Research in this area has suffered from the absence of a guiding comprehensive framework. This study tested a conceptual model of the effects of PI on youth and family functioning derived from the Family Ecology Framework (FEF; Pedersen & Revenson, 2005). Method. A total of 85 parents with multiple sclerosis and 127 youth completed questionnaires at Time 1 and 12 months later at Time 2. Results. Structural equation modeling results supported the FEF with regards to physical-illness disability. Specifically, the proposed mediators (role redistribution, stress, and stigma) were implicated in the processes that link parental disability to several domains of youth adjustment. The results suggest that the effects of parental depression (PD) are not mediated through these processes; rather, PD directly affects family functioning, which in turn mediates the effects onto youth adjustment. Family functioning further mediated between PD and youth well-being and behavioral-social difficulties. Conclusions. Although results support the effects of parental-illness disability on youth and family functioning via the proposed mediational mechanisms, the additive effects of PD on youth physical and mental health occur through direct and indirect (via family functioning) pathways, respectively.

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BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (EDs) are critical to the management of acute illness and injury, and the provision of health system access. However, EDs have become increasingly congested due to increased demand, increased complexity of care and blocked access to ongoing care (access block). Congestion has clinical and organisational implications. This paper aims to describe the factors that appear to infl uence demand for ED services, and their interrelationships as the basis for further research into the role of private hospital EDs. DATA SOURCES: Multiple databases (PubMed, ProQuest, Academic Search Elite and Science Direct) and relevant journals were searched using terms related to EDs and emergency health needs. Literature pertaining to emergency department utilisation worldwide was identified, and articles selected for further examination on the basis of their relevance and significance to ED demand. RESULTS: Factors influencing ED demand can be categorized into those describing the health needs of the patients, those predisposing a patient to seeking help, and those relating to policy factors such as provision of services and insurance status. This paper describes the factors influencing ED presentations, and proposes a novel conceptual map of their interrelationship. CONCLUSION: This review has explored the factors contributing to the growing demand for ED care, the influence these factors have on ED demand, and their interrelationships depicted in the conceptual model.

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Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

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Aim The aim of this paper was to discuss the potential development of a conceptual model of knowledge integration pertinent to critical care nursing practice. A review of the literature identified that reflective practice appeared to be at the forefront of professional development. Background It could be argued that advancing practice in critical care has been superseded by the advanced practice agenda. Some would suggest that advancing practice is focused on the core attributes of an individual’s practice, which then leads onto advanced practice status. However, advancing practice is more of a process than identifiable skills and as such is often negated when viewing the development of practitioners to the advanced practice level. For example, practice development initiatives can be seen as advancing practice for the masses, which ensures that practitioners are following the same level and practice of care. The question here is, are they developing individually? Relevance to clinical practice What this paper presents is that reflection may not be best suited to advancing practice if the individual practitioner does not have a sound knowledge base both theoretically and experientially. The knowledge integration model presented in this study uses multiple learning strategies that are focused in practice to develop practice, e.g. the use of work-based learning and clinical supervision. To demonstrate the models application, an exemplar of an issue from practice shows its relevance from a practical perspective. Conclusions In conclusion, further knowledge acquisition and its relationship with previously held theory and experience will enable individual practitioners to advance their own practice as well as being a resource for others.