HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Consistency in approximate entropy given by a volumetric estimate

Non-linear methods for estimating variability in time-series are currently of widespread use. Among such methods are approximate entropy (ApEn) and sample approximate entropy (SampEn). The applicability of ApEn and SampEn in analyzing data is evident and their use is increasing. However, consistency is a point of concern in these tools, i.e., the classification of the temporal organization of a data set might indicate a relative less ordered series in relation to another when the opposite is true. As highlighted by their proponents themselves, ApEn and SampEn might present incorrect results due to this lack of consistency. In this study, we present a method which gains consistency by using ApEn repeatedly in a wide range of combinations of window lengths and matching error tolerance. The tool is called volumetric approximate entropy, vApEn. We analyze nine artificially generated prototypical time-series with different degrees of temporal order (combinations of sine waves, logistic maps with different control parameter values, random noises). While ApEn/SampEn clearly fail to consistently identify the temporal order of the sequences, vApEn correctly do. In order to validate the tool we performed shuffled and surrogate data analysis. Statistical analysis confirmed the consistency of the method. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ensuring Multimodal Course Consistency

The growth of online, hybrid, and distance courses challenges institutions to maintain content consistency across multiple platforms. This report examines the policies, standards, and practices that guide course consistency initiatives.

The consistency of welfare judgements with a representative consumer

This paper is about economies with a representative consumer. In general a representative consumer need not exist, although there are several well known sets of sufficient conditions under which Qne will. It is common practice, however, to use the representative consumer hypothesis without specifically assuming any of these. We show, firstly, that it is possible for the utility of the representative consumer to increase when every actual consumer is made worse off. This shows a serious shortcoming of welfare judgements based on the representatíve consumer. Secondly, in economies where this does not occur, there exists a social welfare function, which we construct, which is consistent with welfare judgements based on the utility of the representative consumer. Finally we provide a converse to Samuelson' s 1956 representative consumer result, which relates it to Scitovsky's community indifference curves.

On the consistency of arbitrary money-demand functions with the Sidrauski and the shopping-time models

This paper investigates which properties money-demand functions have to satisfy to be consistent with multidimensional extensions of Lucasí(2000) versions of the Sidrauski (1967) and the shopping-time models. We also investigate how such classes of models relate to each other regarding the rationalization of money demands. We conclude that money demand functions rationalizable by the shoppingtime model are always rationalizable by the Sidrauski model, but that the converse is not true. The log-log money demand with an interest-rate elasticity greater than or equal to one and the semi-log money demand are counterexamples.

The time consistency of the Friedman rule

We consider the problem of time consistency of the Ramsey monetary and fiscal policies in an economy without capital. Following Lucas and Stokey (1983) we allow the government at date t to leave its successor at t + 1 a profile of real and nominal debt of all maturities, as a way to influence its decisions. We show that the Ramsey policies are time consistent if and only if the Friedman rule is the optimal Ramsey policy.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Consistency of superspace low energy equations of motion of 4D Type II superstring with Type II sigma model at tree-level

We derive the torsion constraints and show the consistency of equations of motion of four-dimensional Type II supergravity in superspace. with Type II sigma model. This is achieved by coupling the four-dimensional compactified Type II Berkovits' superstring to an N = 2 curved background and requiring that the sigma-model has superconformal invariance at tree-level. We compute this in a manifestly 4D N = 2 supersymmetric way. The constraints break the target conformal and SU(2) invariances and the dilaton will be a conformal, SU(2) x U(1) compensator. For Type II superstring in four dimensions, worldsheet supersymmetry requires two different compensators. One type is described by chiral and anti-chiral superfields. This compensator can be identified with a vector multiplet. The other Type II compensator is described by twist-chiral and twist-anti-chiral superfields and can be identified with a tensor hypermultiplet. Also, the superconformal invariance at tree-level selects a particular gauge, where the matter is fixed, but not the compensators. After imposing the reality conditions, we show that the Type II sigma model at tree-level is consistent with the equations of motion for Type II supergravity in the string gauge. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

QUARK MEAN-FIELD THEORY AND CONSISTENCY WITH NUCLEAR-MATTER

1/N(c) expansion in QCD (with N(c) the number of colors) suggests using a potential from meson sector (e.g., Richardson) for baryons. For light quarks a sigma-field has to be introduced to ensure chiral symmetry breaking (chi-SB). It is found that nuclear matter properties can be used to pin down the chi-SB modeling. All masses, M(N), m-sigma, m-omega, are found to scale with density. The equations are solved self-consistently.

Consistency of super-poincaré covariant superstring tree amplitudes

Using pure spinors, the superstring was recently quantized in a manifestly ten-dimensional super-Poincaré covariant manner and a covariant prescription was given for tree-level scattering amplitudes. In this paper, we prove that this prescription is cyclically symmetric and, for the scattering of an arbitrary number of massless bosons and up to four massless fermions, it agrees with the standard Ramond-Neveu-Schwarz prescription.

Consistency of side choice in the milking parlour by holstein-friesian cows and its relationship with their reactivity and milk yield

Dairy cows often have to choose which of two sides to enter in the milking parlour. Some cows are very consistent in this choicė, and it is common to assume that when these cows are more disturbed are being milked in their non-preferred side. Such disturbance might involve significantly poor welfare. In order to assess this assumption, we decided to study the behaviour and milk yield of dairy cows and their relationships with side preference in the milking parlour. The study was carried out at Cambridge University Farm, in a two-sided tandem milking parlour. The data collection followed the daily management routine. We recorded the side chosen by each cow (left or right) during 40 milking sessions. Data from 70 cows, which were present in at least 25 milking sessions (mode = 36), were included in the statistical analysis. Cows' reactivity (CR) during premilking udder preparation, time spent fitting the milking cluster (FT), milk yield (MY) and duration of milking (DM) were measured. There was evident individual variation in the consistency of side choice. Individual differences (ANOVA, P < 0.001) were also found in CR, FT, MY and DM; although these variables were not significantly affected by the side or the interaction animal × side (ANOVA, P < 0.05). The comparison between left and right side means (paired t-test) of these variables did not show significant differences (P < 0.05). We concluded that there is no evidence that the cows were discomforted or stressed when milked in the non-preferred side of the milking parlour. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.