Estimating expected excess returns using historical and option-implied volatility

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod.

Asset-selling problem with an uncertain deadline, quitting offer, and search skipping option

This paper presents a discrete-time sequential stochastic asset-selling problem with an infinite planning horizon, where the process of selling the asset may reach a deadline at any point in time with a probability. It is assumed that a quitting offer is available at every point in time and search skipping is permitted. Thus, decisions must be made as to whether or not to accept the quitting offer, to accept an appearing buyer’s offer, and to conduct a search for a buyer. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify the properties of the optimal decision rules in relation to the model’s parameters.

Implied volatility smiles, option mispricing and net buying pressure : evidence around the global financial crisis

Using the recent global financial crisis as an exogenous setting, we examine the presence and source of implied volatility smile phenomena in Australian S&P ASX 200 index options. We find a pronounced implied volatility smile for index puts in both bull and bear markets and a smile for index calls in the bear but not bull market. Implied volatilities of out-of-the money puts tend to be upwards biased whilst those of calls tend to be downwards biased. We also find that the bias in implied volatilities yields excess returns based on unhedged and delta-neutral trading strategies, suggesting that implied volatilities are related to option mispricing. Net buying pressure from market participants appears to be a source of mispricing in the case of out-of-the-money index puts with excess demand particularly pronounced during the bull period before the global financial crisis unfolded.

Physical activity promotion for male factory workers : a realistic option?

Issue addressed: Worksites are a promising setting for health promotion initiatives. While there is an accumulated body of evidence indicating favourable health and cost outcomes, there have been difficulties identified in recruiting and influencing blue- collar workers. This descriptive study aimed to identify specific opportunities and barriers which may impact upon physical activity options at work for male blue-collar factory workers.

Methods: Fifteen manager interviews and worksite observations, and eight employee group discussions were conducted in manufacturing industry worksites.

Results: Several key barriers emerged which limit opportunities for blue-collar employees to participate in physical activity at work: time constraints; limited facilities; and lack of interest from management to facilitate physical activity due to limited resources and concerns about safety issues. Potential opportunities included the presence of change rooms, showers, outdoor areas suitable for physical activity, nearby parks and local fitness facilities, and occupational health and safety committees.

Conclusions: Increasing opportunities for workers to be active at work did not emerge as a priority of managers who may need to be convinced that allocating time and resources to physical activity is a wise investment and that workers need an environment that both supports and encourages participation in physical activity. The role of physical activity in relation to injury prevention and potential reductions in Workcover premiums is worthy of further investigation.

So what? While worksite physical activity promotion is a national health objective, there are numerous actual and perceived barriers to initiatives directed at factory workers. Rather than offering specific programs, it may be more productive to address work practices and environmental and regulatory barriers through established occupational health and safety channels. Information and education strategies to change the attitudes and beliefs of management and workers about these issues, as well as about the health benefits of physical activity, may also be helpful.

Home hemodialysis : a successful option for obese and bariatric people with end-stage kidney disease

The increasing prevalence of obesity in developed countries is reflected in the chronic kidney disease, dialysis, and transplant populations. The added risk factor of obesity increases the risk of vascular events, inflammation, insulin resistance, blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and mortality risk. Nephrology center policies may exclude obese people from transplantation programs resulting in many years of dialysis. The case of a 215-kg Australian male who has successfully dialyzed at home for more than 8 years will be used to illustrate the important considerations and clinical support that these people require for successful home dialysis treatment. The aim of this paper is to report on a program that has successfully trained 23 obese (body mass index >30) people who commenced on home hemodialysis between 2001 and 2009. Body weight ranged between 94.0 and 215 kg (mean 126, SD 26.19) and body mass index ranged between 34.9 and 71 (mean 43.38, SD 9.99) at the start of home training. During the 8.5 years of follow-up, average time on home dialysis was 43.7 months. Home hemodialysis is a feasible treatment for obese people to facilitate longer and more frequent dialysis, resulting in improved hemodynamic stability and improved quality of life. For obese people with end-stage kidney disease, home hemodialysis has shown to be cost-effective and can result in greater treatment efficacy than in-center hospital dialysis.

Examining ‘Latinidad’ in Latin America: race, ‘Latinidad’ and the decolonial option

This article provides a critical account of the idea of race, conceived of and derived from European colonisers in the New World. The paper argues that race became a crucial category to the colonising projects of the New World, and in particular in the distribution of power during colonialism. The paper further examines how the notion of Latinidad (Latinity), entrenched in the term Latin America, continued to enact a discourse of racial superiority/inferiority even after the battles for Independence had taken place. Employing the critical vocabulary and framework of Decolonial theory, the paper introduces key arguments against Western European universality, and calls for a re-reading of the processes that structure privilege across racial and ethnic lines.

Cálculo do subsídio implícito a agricultura, proveniente da política de preços mínimos, utilizando a teoria de "option pricing"

O objetivo desse trabalho é calcular o subsídio implícito aos produtores de arroz agulhinha, feijão preto, milho e soja, proveniente da política de preços mínimos, através da avaliação dos prêmios das opções de venda que correspondem à política de preços mínimos para essas commodities.

Are real options a real option for real-world finance professionals? case study : the application of real options to evaluate investment projects in the latin american oil and gas field services industry

Brasil e outros mercados emergentes continuarão a apresentar muitas oportunidades de investimento nos próximos anos. Profissionais financeiros que gerenciam os processos de orçamento de capital nas empresas terão grandes desafios a enfrentar. Características específicas destes projetos como preços ligados a commodities (por exemplo: petróleo e gás e projetos agrícolas) e as incertezas habituais relacionadas com os mercados emergentes são desafios adicionais. Neste cenário, ferramentas mais sofisticadas de orçamento de capital como Opções Reais, oferece uma teoria mais robusta para lidar com incerteza, flexibilidade gerencial, e os resultados voláteis embutidas nestas oportunidades. A teoria de Opções Reais assume que o envolvimento dos gestores nos projetos gera valor à medida que potencializam os bons resultados ou reduzem as perdas por abandonar projetos com maus resultados. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi aplicar a análise de Opções Reais para um projeto de investimento e discutir o processo e os resultados da metodologia. O estudo de caso analisa retroativamente um projeto de investimento na Colômbia e compara os resultados sob o tradicional VPL e Opções Reais. As técnicas de avaliação foram realizadas como se estivessem sendo aplicadas no momento em que o projeto foi aprovado, e depois comparadas com o desempenho real do projeto. O estudo de caso avaliado possui dois tipos de Opções Reais: primeiro, o efeito de uma opção para cancelar um contrato que é analisado a partir da perspectiva do cliente que pode exercer essa opção, e o segundo, a opção de abandonar e adiar a partir da perspectiva da empresa que irá executar a investimento.

Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds

This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observable market term structure and is able to compute risk measures such as duration and convexity, and pricing and hedging of options on these bonds. Examples show the ejJects of the embedded options on the spread and risk measures as well as the ejJects on the spread due to variations on the volatility parameters ofthe short rate.

Affine processes, arbitrage-Free Term structures of legendre polynomials,and option pricing

Multivariate Affine term structure models have been increasingly used for pricing derivatives in fixed income markets. In these models, uncertainty of the term structure is driven by a state vector, while the short rate is an affine function of this vector. The model is characterized by a specific form for the stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the evolution of the state vector. This SDE presents restrictions on its drift term which rule out arbitrages in the market. In this paper we solve the following inverse problem: Suppose the term structure of interest rates is modeled by a linear combination of Legendre polynomials with random coefficients. Is there any SDE for these coefficients which rules out arbitrages? This problem is of particular empirical interest because the Legendre model is an example of factor model with clear interpretation for each factor, in which regards movements of the term structure. Moreover, the Affine structure of the Legendre model implies knowledge of its conditional characteristic function. From the econometric perspective, we propose arbitrage-free Legendre models to describe the evolution of the term structure. From the pricing perspective, we follow Duffie et al. (2000) in exploring Legendre conditional characteristic functions to obtain a computational tractable method to price fixed income derivatives. Closing the article, the empirical section presents precise evidence on the reward of implementing arbitrage-free parametric term structure models: The ability of obtaining a good approximation for the state vector by simply using cross sectional data.

When Basking Is Not an Option: Thermoregulation of a Viperid Snake Endemic to a Small Island in the South Atlantic of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion

There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.