Calculating the application criticality and business risk from technology obsolescence

The problem of technology obsolescence in information intensive businesses (software and hardware no longer being supported and replaced by improved and different solutions) and a cost constrained market can severely increase costs and operational, and ultimately reputation risk. Although many businesses recognise technological obsolescence, the pervasive nature of technology often means they have little information to identify the risk and location of pending obsolescence and little money to apply to the solution. This paper presents a low cost structured method to identify obsolete software and the risk of their obsolescence where the structure of a business and its supporting IT resources can be captured, modelled, analysed and the risk to the business of technology obsolescence identified to enable remedial action using qualified obsolescence information. The technique is based on a structured modelling approach using enterprise architecture models and a heatmap algorithm to highlight high risk obsolescent elements. The method has been tested and applied in practice in three consulting studies carried out by Capgemini involving four UK police forces. However the generic technique could be applied to any industry based on plans to improve it using ontology framework methods. This paper contains details of enterprise architecture meta-models and related modelling.

Assessing the business risk of technology obsolescence through enterprise modelling

The problem of technology obsolescence in information intensive businesses (software and hardware no longer being supported and replaced by improved and different solutions) and a cost constrained market can severely increase costs and operational, and ultimately reputation risk. Although many businesses recognise technological obsolescence, the pervasive nature of technology often means they have little information to identify the risk and location of pending obsolescence and little money to apply to the solution. This paper presents a low cost structured method to identify obsolete software and the risk of their obsolescence where the structure of a business and its supporting IT resources can be captured, modelled, analysed and the risk to the business of technology obsolescence identified to enable remedial action using qualified obsolescence information. The technique is based on a structured modelling approach using enterprise architecture models and a heatmap algorithm to highlight high risk obsolescent elements. The method has been tested and applied in practice in two consulting studies carried out by Capgemini involving three UK police forces. However the generic technique could be applied to any industry based on plans to improve it using ontology framework methods. This paper contains details of enterprise architecture meta-models and related modelling.

Learning to lead for business growth – implications for supporting SMEs in Wales

The Welsh private and third sectors are heavily dependent on SMEs. Consequently the performance of SMEs is critical to the performance of the Welsh economy. Substantial public funds, particularly from European Structural Funds, have been allocated to support these since 2000. The majority of programmes thus funded have been led from within the Welsh Government. This paper reports interim evaluation findings from one intervention led by two Welsh higher education institutions (HEIs), namely the LEAD Wales programme. The programme is an extended intervention to support the leadership skills of owner-managers and incorporates a range of learning methods, including formal masterclasses, but emphasizes situated and experiential learning through action learning, coaching and peer-to-peer exchange exercises. The programme’s impact is assessed on the experiences of 325 participants, of whom 217 have completed the programme. The paper concludes that situated learning methods, through which participants are able to draw from shared history and experience over an extended period are critical to programme success. By contrast, short-term thematic teaching, based around more formal, hierarchical learning is less likely to yield significant and sustainable economic benefits. The implications of this for business support in Wales are discussed.

Predictive models for chronic renal disease using decision trees, naïve bayes and case-based methods

Data mining can be used in healthcare industry to “mine” clinical data to discover hidden information for intelligent and affective decision making. Discovery of hidden patterns and relationships often goes intact, yet advanced data mining techniques can be helpful as remedy to this scenario. This thesis mainly deals with Intelligent Prediction of Chronic Renal Disease (IPCRD). Data covers blood, urine test, and external symptoms applied to predict chronic renal disease. Data from the database is initially transformed to Weka (3.6) and Chi-Square method is used for features section. After normalizing data, three classifiers were applied and efficiency of output is evaluated. Mainly, three classifiers are analyzed: Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm. Results show that each technique has its unique strength in realizing the objectives of the defined mining goals. Efficiency of Decision Tree and KNN was almost same but Naïve Bayes proved a comparative edge over others. Further sensitivity and specificity tests are used as statistical measures to examine the performance of a binary classification. Sensitivity (also called recall rate in some fields) measures the proportion of actual positives which are correctly identified while Specificity measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified. CRISP-DM methodology is applied to build the mining models. It consists of six major phases: business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation, and deployment.

The use of capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods in Swedish listed companies

In this paper Swedish listed companies’ use of capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods in 2005 and 2008 are examined. The relation between company characteristics and choice of methods is investigated and both within-country longitudinal and cross-country comparisons are made. Larger companies seem to have used capital budgeting methods more frequently than smaller companies. When compared to U.S. and continental European companies, Swedish listed companies employed capital budgeting methods less frequently. In 2005 the most common method for establishing the cost of equity was by asking the investors what return they required. By 2008 CAPM was instead the most utilised method, which could indicate greater sophistication. The use of project risk when evaluating investments also seems to have gained in popularity, while the use of company risk declined. Overall, the use of sophisticated capital budgeting and cost of capital estimation methods seem to be rising and the use of less sophisticated methods declining.

What determines the use of capital budgeting methods? : Evidence from Swedish listed companies

Purpose: This paper aims to extend and contribute to prior research on the association between company characteristics and choice of capital budgeting methods (CBMs). Design/methodology/approach: A multivariate regression analysis on questionnaire data from 2005 and 2008 is used to study which factors determine the choice of CBMs in Swedish listed companies. Findings: Our results supported hypotheses that Swedish listed companies have become more sophisticated over the years (or at least less unsophisticated) which indicates a closing of the theory-practice gap; that companies with greater leverage used payback more often; and that companies with stricter debt targets and less management ownership employed accounting rate of return more frequent. Moreover, larger companies used CBMs more often. Originality/value: The paper contributes to prior research within this field by being the first Swedish study to examine the association between use of CBMs and as many as twelve independent variables, including changes over time, by using multivariate regression analysis. The results are compared to a US and a continental European study.

On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).

Business competition dynamics: agent-based modeling simulations of firms in search of economic performance

A intenção deste trabalho é explorar dinâmicas de competição por meio de “simulação baseada em agentes”. Apoiando-se em um crescente número de estudos no campo da estratégia e teoria das organizações que utilizam métodos de simulação, desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional para simular situações de competição entre empresas e observar a eficiência relativa dos métodos de busca de melhoria de desempenho teorizados. O estudo também explora possíveis explicações para a persistência de desempenho superior ou inferior das empresas, associados às condições de vantagem ou desvantagem competitiva

Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Business development service centres in Italy. An empirical analysis of three regional experiences: Emilia Romagna, Lombardia y Veneto

Includes bibliography

Analysis of inventory management in small business auto parts

The objective of this study was to analyze the production process and supply control in order to identify possible gaps and develop a method for managing supplies. The relevance of this research is on the benefits that can obtain by identifying the problems of supply control. The research method used was the case study, which was grounded on tripod semi-structured interviews, on-site observation, and document analysis. This methodology was very suitable because it can be analyzed and cross checked. The possibility of implementation of the proposal obtained from the theoretical framework, that together with the complementary actions suggested here, offers the opportunity to make the process more productive and profitable. This work allowed one to observe the weaknesses in managing the supply chain and at what points to work should be improved. It allowed to use some scientific models in the company object of study in order to improve supply management. © 2011 IEEE.

Using baseline methods to identify non-technical losses in the context of smart grids

Demand response has gained increasing importance in the context of competitive electricity markets and smart grid environments. In addition to the importance that has been given to the development of business models for integrating demand response, several methods have been developed to evaluate the consumers' performance after the participation in a demand response event. The present paper uses those performance evaluation methods, namely customer baseline load calculation methods, to determine the expected consumption in each period of the consumer historic data. In the cases in which there is a certain difference between the actual consumption and the estimated consumption, the consumer is identified as a potential cause of non-technical losses. A case study demonstrates the application of the proposed method to real consumption data. © 2013 IEEE.

Product-portfolio management: A framework based on Methods, Organization, and Strategy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pervasive Business Intelligence

In the last few years, a new generation of Business Intelligence (BI) tools called BI 2.0 has emerged to meet the new and ambitious requirements of business users. BI 2.0 not only introduces brand new topics, but in some cases it re-examines past challenges according to new perspectives depending on the market changes and needs. In this context, the term pervasive BI has gained increasing interest as an innovative and forward-looking perspective. This thesis investigates three different aspects of pervasive BI: personalization, timeliness, and integration. Personalization refers to the capacity of BI tools to customize the query result according to the user who takes advantage of it, facilitating the fruition of BI information by different type of users (e.g., front-line employees, suppliers, customers, or business partners). In this direction, the thesis proposes a model for On-Line Analytical Process (OLAP) query personalization to reduce the query result to the most relevant information for the specific user. Timeliness refers to the timely provision of business information for decision-making. In this direction, this thesis defines a new Data Warehuose (DW) methodology, Four-Wheel-Drive (4WD), that combines traditional development approaches with agile methods; the aim is to accelerate the project development and reduce the software costs, so as to decrease the number of DW project failures and favour the BI tool penetration even in small and medium companies. Integration refers to the ability of BI tools to allow users to access information anywhere it can be found, by using the device they prefer. To this end, this thesis proposes Business Intelligence Network (BIN), a peer-to-peer data warehousing architecture, where a user can formulate an OLAP query on its own system and retrieve relevant information from both its local system and the DWs of the net, preserving its autonomy and independency.

Seasonality as a core business of phenology

The best characteristics of phenological observations are their description of seasons and seasonal patterns. Specific phenological phases are used to define the beginning and the end of seasons that form phenological calendars. Phenological observations more closely capture the integrated seasonal rhythm than statistically derived means or thresholds from climate elements. They only provide approximate indicators of seasonal changes and cannot replace visible or directly measurable phenomena. Including abiotic observations such as the timing of frost, thawing, icing, snow and fog even provides seasonality descriptions beyond the vegetation period. The length and position of seasons within the year is a foundation for an integrated description of seasonality presented as a phenological season diagram. Phenological observations are the indispensable basis for an integral description of a seasonal classification and seasonality. A well designed phenological diagram could offer a comprehensive picture of the rhythm and amplitude of seasons.