Estimadores compuestos en estadística regional: aplicación para la tasa de variación de la ocupación en la industria

This work is part of a project studying the performance of model basedestimators in a small area context. We have chosen a simple statisticalapplication in which we estimate the growth rate of accupation for severalregions of Spain. We compare three estimators: the direct one based onstraightforward results from the survey (which is unbiassed), and a thirdone which is based in a statistical model and that minimizes the mean squareerror.

Educational opportunity and the college premium

Since World War II, the United States government has made improved accessto higher education a priority. This e¤ort has substantially increasedthe number of people who complete college. We show that by reducing theeffective interest rate on borrowing for education, such policies canactually increase the gap in wages between those with a college educationand those without. The mechanism that drives our results is the signaling role of education first explored by Spence (1973). We argue that financialconstraints on education reduce the value of education as a signal. Wesolve for the reduced form relationship between the interest rate and thewage premium in the steady state of a dynamic asymmetric information model.In addition, we discuss evidence of decreases in borrowing costs for educationfinancing in the U.S.

The overhang hangover

We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends up lowering (subsequent)growth. On average, significantly negative coefficients appear when debt face value reaches 60 percent of GDP or 200 percent of exports, and when its present value reaches 40 percent of GDP or 140 percent of exports. Second, we depart from reduced form growth regressions and perform direct tests of the theory on the thus selected sample of overhang countries. In the spirit of event studies, we ask whether, as overhang level of debt is reached: (i)investment falls precipitously as it should when it becomes optimal to default, (ii) economic policy deteriorates observably, as it should when debt contracts become unable to elicit effort on the part of the debtor, and (iii) the terms of borrowing worsen noticeably, as they should when it becomes optimal for creditors to pre-empt default and exact punitive interest rates. We find a systematic response of investment, particularly when property rights are weakly enforced, some worsening of the policy environment, and a fall in interest rates. This easing of borrowing conditions happens because lending by the private sector virtually disappears in overhang situations, and multilateral agencies step in with concessional rates. Thus, while debt relief is likely to improve economic policy (and especially investment) in overhang countries, it is doubtful that it would ease their terms of borrowing, or the burden of debt.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Lending to the borrower from hell: Debt and default in the age of Philip II, 1556-1598

What sustained borrowing without third-party enforcement, in the early days of sovereignlending? Philip II of Spain accumulated towering debts while stopping all payments tohis lenders four times. How could the sovereign borrow much and default often? Weargue that bankers ability to cut off Philip II s access to smoothing services was key. Aform of syndicated lending created cohesion among his Genoese bankers. As a result,lending moratoria were sustained through a cheat the cheater mechanism (Kletzer andWright, 2000). Our paper thus lends empirical support to a recent literature emphasizingthe role of bankers incentives for continued sovereign borrowing.

Cape Verdean Creole of São Vicente: Its genesis and Structure

Although the Santiago variety of Cape Verdean Creole (CVC) has been the subject of numerous linguistic works, the second major variety of the language, i.e. the São Vicente variety of CVC (CVSV), has hardly been described. Nevertheless this lack of studies and given its striking differences, on all linguistic levels, from the variety of Santiago (CVST), the implicit explanation for such divergences, echoed for decades in the literature on CVC, has been the presumably decreolized character of CVSV. First, this study provides a comprehensive fieldwork-based synchronic description of CVSV major morpho-syntactic categories in the intent to document the variety. Second, it aims to place the study of CVSV within a broader scope of contact linguistics in the quest to explain its structure. Based on analyses of historical documents and studies, it reconstructs the sociohistorical scenario of the emergence and development of CVSV in the period of 1797- 1975. From the comparison of the current structures of CVSV and CVST, the examination of linguistic data in historical texts and the analysis of sociohistorical facts it becomes clear that the contemporary structure of CVSV stems from the contact-induced changes that occurred during the intensive language and dialect contact on the island of São Vicente in the early days of its settlement in the late 18th and ensuing early 19th century development, rather than from modern day pressure of Portuguese. Although this dissertation argues for multiple explanations rather than a single theory, by showing that processes such as languages shift among the first Portuguese settlers, L2 acquisition, migration of the Barlavento speakers and subsequent dialect leveling as well as language borrowing at a later stage were at stake, it demonstrates the usefulness of partial-restructuring model proposed by Holm (2004).

Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.

"Ja putsari toi lihan pääkäri toi leivän." : australiansuomen leksikaaliset lainat ja kielen säilyttäminen

Summary: The effect on lexical borrowing on language maintenance in Australian Finnish

On the impact of microcredit: Evidence from a randomized intervention in rural Ethiopia

We use data from a randomized controlled trial conducted in 2003-2006 in rural Amhara andOromiya (Ethiopia) to study the impacts of the introduction of microfinance in treated communities. We document that borrowing increased substantially in locations where the programs started their operations, but we find mixed evidence of improvements in a number ofsocio-economic outcomes, including income from agriculture, animal husbandry, non-farm self-employment, schooling and indicators of women's empowerment.

Local optima networks of hard combinatorial landscapes

Combinatorial optimization involves finding an optimal solution in a finite set of options; many everyday life problems are of this kind. However, the number of options grows exponentially with the size of the problem, such that an exhaustive search for the best solution is practically infeasible beyond a certain problem size. When efficient algorithms are not available, a practical approach to obtain an approximate solution to the problem at hand, is to start with an educated guess and gradually refine it until we have a good-enough solution. Roughly speaking, this is how local search heuristics work. These stochastic algorithms navigate the problem search space by iteratively turning the current solution into new candidate solutions, guiding the search towards better solutions. The search performance, therefore, depends on structural aspects of the search space, which in turn depend on the move operator being used to modify solutions. A common way to characterize the search space of a problem is through the study of its fitness landscape, a mathematical object comprising the space of all possible solutions, their value with respect to the optimization objective, and a relationship of neighborhood defined by the move operator. The landscape metaphor is used to explain the search dynamics as a sort of potential function. The concept is indeed similar to that of potential energy surfaces in physical chemistry. Borrowing ideas from that field, we propose to extend to combinatorial landscapes the notion of the inherent network formed by energy minima in energy landscapes. In our case, energy minima are the local optima of the combinatorial problem, and we explore several definitions for the network edges. At first, we perform an exhaustive sampling of local optima basins of attraction, and define weighted transitions between basins by accounting for all the possible ways of crossing the basins frontier via one random move. Then, we reduce the computational burden by only counting the chances of escaping a given basin via random kick moves that start at the local optimum. Finally, we approximate network edges from the search trajectory of simple search heuristics, mining the frequency and inter-arrival time with which the heuristic visits local optima. Through these methodologies, we build a weighted directed graph that provides a synthetic view of the whole landscape, and that we can characterize using the tools of complex networks science. We argue that the network characterization can advance our understanding of the structural and dynamical properties of hard combinatorial landscapes. We apply our approach to prototypical problems such as the Quadratic Assignment Problem, the NK model of rugged landscapes, and the Permutation Flow-shop Scheduling Problem. We show that some network metrics can differentiate problem classes, correlate with problem non-linearity, and predict problem hardness as measured from the performances of trajectory-based local search heuristics.

Federal Dynamics in Times of Economic and Financial Crisis

The global economic and financial crisis is a challenge for all governments, but particularly for federal states because divided and/or shared territorial powers make federations susceptible to coordination problems in fiscal policy making. This article explores the effects of the ongoing crisis on federal relations. Three kinds of problems that may become the cause of federal tensions and conflicts are evoked: opportunism of subgovernments, centralisation and erosion of solidarity among members of the federation. Our analysis of fiscal policies and federal conflicts of 11 federations between 2007 and the present reveals three kinds of coordination problems: shirking in the use of federal government grants, rent-seeking in equalisation payments, and over-borrowing and over-spending. Our results show that shirking remained limited to few cases and occurred only in the first part of the crisis. However, rent-seeking and over-borrowing and over-spending led to a reduction of solidarity among subgovernments and to increased regulation of the fiscal discretion of the members of the federation. Subsequently, tensions in federal relations increased - although only in one case did this challenged the federal order.

Tietotekniikan osaston osastokirjaston varausjärjestelmän suunnittelu ja toteutus

Tietotekniikan osaston osastokirjaston nykyinen varausjärjestelmä toimii paperilapuin merkittävin varauksin. Kirjojen lainaus- ja saatavuustilanne halutaan selkeämmäksi, sekä lainausprosessi helpommaksi. Työssä suunnitellaan varausjärjestelmä vanhan kirjojen hakuun jo olemassa olevan järjestelmän pohjalta, kaikki ohjelmakoodi kirjoitetaan kuitenkin uusiksi, jotta järjestelmä olisi yhtenäinen. Uusina toimintoina lisätään kirjojen varaus ja lainaus, sekä admin-käyttäjälle mahdollisuus tarkastella lainoja ja varauksia. Työn toteutuksessa edetessä sitä testataan jatkuvasti, ennen käyttöönottoa järjestelmää testataan oikeassa käyttöympäristössään. Työn tuloksena on järjestelmä, joka mahdollistaa kirjojen varaamisen ja lainaamisen sekä selkeyttää kirjojen lainaustilannetta. Lisäksi tässä dokumentissa selvitetään lyhyesti järjestelmän jatkokehitysmahdollisuuksia.

UB-lainaus

Petteri Kivimäen ja Päivi Järvisen esitys Kohti aineistojen yhteiskäyttöä -seminaarissa 2.11.2011 Helsingissä

Korkokattosäännöksen vaikutukset pikalainamarkkinoihin

Lyhytaikaisista, pienehköistä ja vakuudettomista pikalainoista on muodostunut nopeasti osa suomalaisia kuluttajaluottomarkkinoita. Samalla pikalainatoimintaa koskevaa lainsäädäntöä on uudistettu useaan kertaan. Tämän kandidaatintutkielman tavoitteena on ollut selvittää, miten korkokattosäännös on vaikuttanut pikalainayhtiöiden tarjoamiin tuotteisiin ja alalla toimivan yritysjoukon kokoon. Tutkimus on toteutettu laadullisin menetelmin. Aineistona on käytetty Etelä-Suomen aluehallintoviraston ylläpitämän luotonantajarekisterin tietoja, Tilastokeskuksen tilastotietoja, keskeisiä oikeustapauksia sekä erikseen tutkielmaa varten kerättyjä pikalainayhtiöiden tuotetietoja. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin korkokattosäännöksen voimaantulon vähentäneen pikalainayritysten määrää huomattavasti. Yleisin tuote toimialalla on niin sanottu limiittiluotto joustavalla lainamäärällä ja takaisinmaksulla, minkä lisäksi yhtiöt tarjoavat lyhyitä ja pitkiä kertaluottoja. Korkokattosäännöksen tultua voimaan keskimääräinen luottosumma on kasvanut ja takaisinmaksuaika pidentynyt merkittävästi. Samalla luotoista maksettavien kulujen suhde lainamäärään on pienentynyt ja lainoja on myönnetty niin euro- kuin kappalemääräisesti selvästi aiempaa vähemmän. Tulosten perusteella voidaan sanoa, että lakimuutoksella on ollut selkeitä vaikutuksia pikalaina-alaan. Luotonannon kiristyttyä laskeneet luottokustannukset hyödyttävät kuitenkin vain osaa luotonhakijoista. Muuttuneiden tuotteiden myötä pikalainatoiminta on siirtynyt lähemmäs muuta kuluttajaluottotoimintaa.