Elaboração e estruturação de um modelo de rating interno

Temos vindo a assistir nos últimos anos a uma evolução no que respeita à avaliação do risco de crédito. As constantes alterações de regulamentação bancária, que resultam dos Acordos de Basileia, têm vindo a impor novas normas que condicionam a quantidade e a qualidade do risco de crédito que as Instituições de Crédito podem assumir nos seus balanços. É de grande importância as Instituições de Crédito avaliarem o risco de crédito, as garantias e o custo de capital, pois têm um impacto direto na sua gestão nomeadamente quanto à afetação de recursos e proteção contra perdas. Desta forma, pretende-se com o presente trabalho elaborar e estruturar um modelo de rating interno através de técnicas estatísticas, assim como identificar as variáveis estatisticamente relevantes no modelo considerado. Foi delineada uma metodologia de investigação mista, considerando na primeira parte do trabalho uma pesquisa qualitativa e na segunda parte uma abordagem quantitativa. Através da análise documental, fez-se uma abordagem dos conceitos teóricos e da regulamentação que serve de base ao presente trabalho. No estudo de caso, o modelo de rating interno foi desenvolvido utilizando a técnica estatística designada de regressão linear múltipla. A amostra considerada foi obtida através da base de dados SABI e é constituída por cem empresas solventes, situadas na zona de Paredes, num horizonte temporal de 2011-2013. A nossa análise baseou-se em três cenários, correspondendo cada cenário aos dados de cada ano (2011, 2012 e 2013). Para validar os pressupostos do modelo foram efetuados testes estatísticos de Durbin Watson e o teste de significância - F (ANOVA). Por fim, para obtermos a classificação de rating de cada variável foi aplicada a técnica dos percentis. Pela análise dos três cenários considerados, verificou-se que o cenário dois foi o que obteve maior coeficiente de determinação. Verificou-se ainda que as variáveis independentes, rácio de liquidez geral, grau de cobertura do ativo total pelo fundo de maneio e rácio de endividamento global são estatisticamente relevantes.

A evolução do relato financeiro nas cooperativas ao longo do século XX até à atualidade

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de: Professora Doutora Ana Maria Alves Bandeira Professora Doutora Deolinda Maria Moreira Aparício Meira

The impact of large-scale mortgage backed security purchases

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Fair value measurement: Is the debate around level II and level III assets and liabilities relevant

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA- School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Business Engineering from Louvain school of Management

Impact of health legislation on the sale of anorectics in a city in the Amazon region

OBJECTIVES: The International Narcotics Control Board released its 2005 annual report, highlighting the Brazil population as one of the largest consumers of anorectics. In Brazil, the National Health Surveillance Agency issued the resolution RDC 58/2007 in order to control the prescription and sale of such drugs. In Belém, the biggest city in the Brazilian Amazon region, this resolution came into force in 2008, leading to inspections of drugstores and magistral pharmacies. The aim of this work was to evaluate the consumption of psychotropic anorectic drugs and the impact of RDC 58/2007 on the prescription and dispensing of anorectics in drugstores and magistral pharmacies in Belém. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective quantitative and descriptive study was conducted of records from the Municipal Department of Health Surveillance of Belém, for 2005 to 2008. The differences in findings were regarded significant when p < 0.05. RESULTS: A total of 1,641 balance sheets of drugstores and magistral pharmacies were analyzed. Amfepramone was the most dispensed medication, followed by fenproporex and mazindol. The highest consumption of anorectics occurred in magistral pharmacies. In 2008, there was a significant reduction in dispensing of anorectics, in drugstores as well as in magistral pharmacies. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that there was a decrease in the dispensing of anorectics after RDC 58/2007 came into force, and that the magistral pharmacies dispensed more of these drugs. This resolution is a remarkable tool in health control, where it is of great benefit to public health and contributes substantially to the rational use of medicines in Brazil.

Ecologic correlations of selected food groups with disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland.

Background: There is little information regarding the impact of diet on disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland. We assessed ecologic correlations between food availability and disease.Methods: In this ecologic study for the period 1970-2009, food availability was measured using the food balance sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the World Health Organization Health For All database and the Vaud Cancer Registry. Associations between food availability and mortality/incidence were assessed at lags 0, 5, 10, and 15 years by multivariate regression adjusted for total caloric intake.Results: Alcoholic beverages and fruit availability were positively associated, and fish availability was inversely associated, with SMRs for cardiovascular diseases. Animal products, meat, and animal fats were positively associated with the SMR for ischemic heart disease only. For cancer, the results of analysis using SMRs and incidence rates were contradictory. Alcoholic beverages and fruits were positively associated with SMRs for all cancer but inversely associated with all-cancer incidence rates. Similar findings were obtained for all other foods except vegetables, which were weakly inversely associated with SMRs and incidence rates. Use of a 15-year lag reversed the associations with animal and vegetal products, weakened the association with alcohol and fruits, and strengthened the association with fish.Conclusions: Ecologic associations between food availability and disease vary considerably on the basis of whether mortality or incidence rates are used in the analysis. Great care is thus necessary when interpreting our results.

The Rise and Fall of the ABS Market

The nancial crisis has raised some concern about the quality of information available on some traded assets on the securities markets to market participants and regulators. Asset-backed securitization in general got partial blame for the paucity of liquidity on bank balance sheets and the consequent credit crunch. After the Asset-Backed Security (ABS) market fell to near inactivity in 2009, the US federal government's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) provided backing and a boost to the issuance of asset-backed securitization. In this market condition, given the nature of ABS, it is di¢ cult for them not to be relatively illiquid, and this has resulted in unacceptable levels of market risk for most investors. Their liquidity before the crisis was driven by a market in continuous expansion, fed by Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), Conduits, and other low capitalized term-transformation vehicles. Nowadays, the industry is concerned with the ongoing ABS reforms and how these will be implemented. This article reviews the ABS market in the last decade and the possible consequences of the recent regulatory proposals. It proposes a retention policy and the institution of a new nancial body to supervise the quality of the security in an ABS pool, its liquidity, and the model risk implied by the issuer's valuation model.

Why do UK banks securitize?

The eight years from 2000 to 2008 saw a rapid growth in the use of securitization by UK banks. We aim to identify the reasons that contributed to this rapid growth. The time period (2000 to 2010) covered by our study is noteworthy as it covers the pre- financial crisis credit-boom, the peak of the fi nancial crisis and its aftermath. In the wake of the financial crisis, many governments, regulators and political commentators have pointed an accusing finger at the securitization market - even in the absence of a detailed statistical and economic analysis. We contribute to the extant literature by performing such an analysis on UK banks, focussing principally on whether it is the need for liquidity (i.e. the funding of their balance sheets), or the desire to engage in regulatory capital arbitrage or the need for credit risk transfer that has led to UK banks securitizing their assets. We show that securitization has been signi ficantly driven by liquidity reasons. In addition, we observe a positive link between securitization and banks credit risk. We interpret these latter findings as evidence that UK banks which engaged in securitization did so, in part, to transfer credit risk and that, in comparison to UK banks which did not use securitization, they had more credit risk to transfer in the sense that they originated lower quality loans and held lower quality assets. We show that banks which issued more asset-backed securities before the financial crisis suffered more defaults after the financial crisis.

Ecological correlations between food availability and mortality: more than you can eat?

Introduction: There is little information regarding the impact of diet on disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland. Objectives: We aimed at assessing the associations between food availability and disease using ecological correlations. Methods: Time-trend ecologic study for period 1970 to 2009. Food availability was measured through the FAO food balance sheets. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Cancer incidence data was obtained from the WHO Health for all database and the Vaud cancer registry. Association between food availability and mortality/incidence was assessed at lags 0, 5, 10 and 15 years by Spearman correlation. Results: Alcoholic beverages and fruit availability were positively associated with SMRs from all types of cardiovascular disease, while fish availability was negatively associated. Animal products, meat and animal fats were positively associated with SMR from ischemic heart disease only. For cancers, opposite results were found whether the association used SMRs or incidence rates. For all cancers, alcoholic beverages and fruits were positively associated with SMRs but negatively associated with incidence rates. Similar findings were obtained for all other foods, with the exception of vegetables, which were weakly and negatively associated with SMRs and incidence rates. Finally, a 15 years lag time reversed the association for animal and vegetal products, weakened the association for alcohol and fruits and strengthened the association for fish. Conclusion: Ecologic associations between food availability and disease vary considerably whether mortality or incidence rates are used. Great care should be taken when interpreting the results.

Institutions, Public Debt and Foreign Finance

We study the role of domestic financial institutions in sustaining capital flows to the private and public sector of a country whose government can default on its debt. As in recent public debt crises, in our model public defaults weaken banks' balance sheets, disrupting domestic financial markets. This effect leads to a novel complementarity between private capital inflows and public borrowing, where the former sustain the latter by boosting the government's cost of default. Our key message is that, by shaping the direction of private capital flows, financial institutions determine whether financial integration improves or reduces government discipline. We explore the implications of this complementarity for financial liberalization and debt-financed bailouts of banks. We present some evidence consistent with complementarity.

Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market

We combine existing balance sheet and stock market data with two new datasets to studywhether, how much, and why bank lending to firms matters for the transmission of monetarypolicy. The first new dataset enables us to quantify the bank dependence of firms precisely,as the ratio of bank debt to total assets. We show that a two standard deviation increase inthe bank dependence of a firm makes its stock price about 25% more responsive to monetarypolicy shocks. We explore the channels through which this effect occurs, and find that thestock prices of bank-dependent firms that borrow from financially weaker banks display astronger sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with the banklending channel, a theory according to which the strength of bank balance sheets mattersfor monetary policy transmission. We construct a new database of hedging activities andshow that the stock prices of bank-dependent firms that hedge against interest rate riskdisplay a lower sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with aninterest rate pass-through channel that operates via the direct transmission of policy ratesto lending rates associated with the widespread use of floating-rates in bank loans and creditline agreements.

Trends in food availability in Switzerland, 1961-2007.

Trends in food availability in Switzerland were assessed using the Food and Agricultural Organization food balance sheets for the period 1961-2007. A relatively stable trend in the daily caloric supply was found: 3545 kcal/day in 1961 and 3465 kcal/day in 2007. Calories associated with carbohydrates decreased (slope±s.e.: -1.1±0.2 kcal/day/year), namely regarding cereals (-2.9±0.6 kcal/day/year) and fruit (-1.5±0.1 kcal/day/year), while the availability of sugars increased (1.2±0.5 kcal/day/year). In 1961, protein, fat, carbohydrates and alcohol represented 10.6, 33.5, 50.0 and 5.9% of total caloric supply, respectively; in 2007, the values were 10.8, 40.3, 43.7 and 5.2%. In 1961, palm, groundnut and sunflowerseed oil represented 3.4, 30.7 and 5.3% of total vegetable oils, respectively; in 2007, the values were 10.4, 3.7 and 31.6%. We conclude that between 1961 and 2007 total caloric availability remained relatively stable in Switzerland; the health effects of the increased and differing fat availability should be evaluated.

Sovereign default, domestic banks and financial institutions

We present a model of sovereign debt in which, contrary to conventional wisdom, government defaultsare costly because they destroy the balance sheets of domestic banks. In our model, better financial institutionsallow banks to be more leveraged, thereby making them more vulnerable to sovereign defaults.Our predictions: government defaults should lead to declines in private credit, and these declines should belarger in countries where financial institutions are more developed and banks hold more government bonds.In these same countries, government defaults should be less likely. Using a large panel of countries, we findevidence consistent with these predictions.

Lajitteluparametrit korkeakappaisessa sellulinjassa

Tutkimustyön tarkoituksena oli selvittää Tainionkosken sellutehtaan vuonna 2001 uudistetun kuitulinjan prosessin vaikutusta kuumajauhatukseen, kuumalajitteluun, pesutulokseen ja hienolajitteluun. Työn tavoitteena oli löytää ja todentaa optimaalinen ajotapa lopputuotteen eli Tainionkosken kartonkitehtaan kartongin kannalta pesussa, kuidutuksessa, kuumalajittelussa ja hienolajittelussa. Ennen kuitulinjan uudistusta kartoitettiin tilanne kuumajauhatuksessa ja kuumalajittelussa ennen prosessimuutoksia. Kartoituksessa havaittiin, että kuumalajittelu ja kuumakuidutus toimivat parhaiten puhtaan jauhatusenergian ollessa n. 18 kWh/ADT, sekä tilavuusmääräisen ja massavirtamääräisen rejektisuhteen ollessa n. 30 %.Uuden pesemön valmistumisen jälkeen tutkittiin kappatason ja energiatason vaikutusta kuumalajitteluun, kuumakuidutukseen ja pesutulokseen. Tutkimuksessa todettiin tikkupitoisuuksien kasvavan kappatason kohoamisen seurauksena. Kuumajauhimen syöttösakeus kasvoi kappatason noustua, koska prosessimittaus ei huomioinut sakeuden kasvua ja tällöin jauhimen laimennusveden määrä jäi liian vähäiseksi. Korkean kapan seurauksena keitosta tulevien suurien partikkelien määrä lisääntyi. Kuumajauhatuksessa korkeampi kappaluku merkitsi hienoaineen lisääntymistä jauhetussa massassa. Tämän seurauksena kuidutetun massan suotautumisvastus kasvoi kappatason kohottua. Uuden prosessin kuumajauhatukseen tuleva massa on jo pesty 4-vaiheisella DD-pesurilla. Puhtaampi massa kuumajauhatuksessa ja kuumalajittelussa on merkinnyt jauhimen tikkureduktion paranemista, mutta samalla kuumalajittimen tikkujen puhdistustehokkuus on heikentynyt. Laboratoriomittausten mukaan kappatason kasvu huonontaa pesutulosta uudessa pesemössä. Uuden hienolajittamon suorituskykyä määritettiin taseiden avulla. Vanhan lajittamon toiminnassa huomattiin puutteita siinä, että 2-portaan lajittimen 1-portaan syöttöön tulevan rejektivirran tikkupitoisuus oli suurempi mitä tikkupitoisuus 1-portaan syöttövirrassa. Uudessa lajittamossa molempien virtausten tikkupitoisuudet olivat lähes samat. Kokonaisuudessaan hienolajittamon toiminta havaittiin hyväksi. Pesemö ja hienolajittelu toimivat kokeiden perusteella parhaiten lähellä mitoitettua maksimituotantoa 700 ADT/d.

PIENEN OSAKEYHTIÖN TILINPÄÄTÖKSEEN LIITTYVIEN KIRJANPITOLAIN JA –ASETUKSEN MUKAISTEN PAKOLLISTEN LIITETIETOJEN MUUTOKSET 1990-LUVULLA

Tutkimuksen tavoite oli selvittää, miten kirjanpitolainsäädännön muutokset 1990-luvulla ovat vaikuttaneet pienen osakeyhtiön tilinpäätöksen selventämiseksi annettavien liitetietojen esittämiseen, niiden määrään sekä esityspaikkaan. Tutkimus tehtiin käyttämällä pitkittäistarkastelua. Tutkimusaineisto koostui tutkimuskohteesta johtuen pääasiassa vuosien 1973 ja 1997 kirjanpitolaeista ja –asetuksista sekä niitä tulkitsevista ja täydentävistä kotimaisista teoksista. Muutoksia tutkittiin vertailemalla tutkimuskauden aikana voimassa olleita kirjanpitoon liittyviä säädöksiä keskenään siten, että tarkasteltiin mitä on tullut lisää ja mitä poistunut lainsäädännön vaatimuksista. Lakimuutoksia tarkasteltiin 23.8.2001 saakka. Pienen osakeyhtiön tilinpäätökseen liittyvien pakollisten liitetietojen määrä lisääntyi tutkimuskauden aikana merkittävästi. Muutosten seurauksena tilinpäätöksen informaatioarvo yritysten sidosryhmille kasvoi olennaisesti, mutta itse kirjanpitovelvolliselle lainsäädännön muutokset toivat huomattavasti lisävelvoitteita.