Petri net model decomposition - a model based approach supporting distributed execution

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica, Especialidade de Sistemas Digitais, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Cost Allocation Model for Distribution Networks Considering High Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitiveenvironment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The networkcost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribu-tion networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop afairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are usingthe network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, andcongestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation(DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehi-cles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Theproposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in aneconomic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen’s andBialek’s tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the net-work. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distributionnetwork of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposedmodel.

Cost allocation model for distribution networks considering high penetration of distributed energy resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitive environment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The network cost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribution networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop a fairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are using the network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, and congestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). The proposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in an economic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen's and Bialek's tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the network. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distribution network of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

maintenance model for systems with phase-type distributed times to failure

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

A Model-Based Development and Verification Framework for Distributed System-on-Chip Architecture

The capabilities and thus, design complexity of VLSI-based embedded systems have increased tremendously in recent years, riding the wave of Moore’s law. The time-to-market requirements are also shrinking, imposing challenges to the designers, which in turn, seek to adopt new design methods to increase their productivity. As an answer to these new pressures, modern day systems have moved towards on-chip multiprocessing technologies. New architectures have emerged in on-chip multiprocessing in order to utilize the tremendous advances of fabrication technology. Platform-based design is a possible solution in addressing these challenges. The principle behind the approach is to separate the functionality of an application from the organization and communication architecture of hardware platform at several levels of abstraction. The existing design methodologies pertaining to platform-based design approach don’t provide full automation at every level of the design processes, and sometimes, the co-design of platform-based systems lead to sub-optimal systems. In addition, the design productivity gap in multiprocessor systems remain a key challenge due to existing design methodologies. This thesis addresses the aforementioned challenges and discusses the creation of a development framework for a platform-based system design, in the context of the SegBus platform - a distributed communication architecture. This research aims to provide automated procedures for platform design and application mapping. Structural verification support is also featured thus ensuring correct-by-design platforms. The solution is based on a model-based process. Both the platform and the application are modeled using the Unified Modeling Language. This thesis develops a Domain Specific Language to support platform modeling based on a corresponding UML profile. Object Constraint Language constraints are used to support structurally correct platform construction. An emulator is thus introduced to allow as much as possible accurate performance estimation of the solution, at high abstraction levels. VHDL code is automatically generated, in the form of “snippets” to be employed in the arbiter modules of the platform, as required by the application. The resulting framework is applied in building an actual design solution for an MP3 stereo audio decoder application.

Threshold Autoregressive Model for a Time Series Data

In this paper we try to fit a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to time series data of monthly coconut oil prices at Cochin market. The procedure proposed by Tsay [7] for fitting the TAR model is briefly presented. The fitted model is compared with a simple autoregressive (AR) model. The results are in favour of TAR process. Thus the monthly coconut oil prices exhibit a type of non-linearity which can be accounted for by a threshold model.

A model of Distributed Ayurvedic Diagnosis and Therapy System for Hridroga Using Agents

Diagnosis of Hridroga (cardiac disorders) in Ayurveda requires the combination of many different types of data, including personal details, patient symptoms, patient histories, general examination results, Ashtavidha pareeksha results etc. Computer-assisted decision support systems must be able to combine these data types into a seamless system. Intelligent agents, an approach that has been used chiefly in business applications, is used in medical diagnosis in this case. This paper is about a multi-agent system named “Distributed Ayurvedic Diagnosis and Therapy System for Hridroga using Agents” (DADTSHUA). It describes the architecture of the DADTSHUA model .This system is using mobile agents and ontology for passing data through the network. Due to this, transport delay can be minimized. It is a system which will be very helpful for the beginning physicians to eliminate his ambiguity in diagnosis and therapy. The system is implemented using Java Agent DEvelopment framework (JADE), which is a java-complaint mobile agent platform from TILab.

ACTORS: A Model of Concurrent Computation in Distributed Systems

A foundational model of concurrency is developed in this thesis. We examine issues in the design of parallel systems and show why the actor model is suitable for exploiting large-scale parallelism. Concurrency in actors is constrained only by the availability of hardware resources and by the logical dependence inherent in the computation. Unlike dataflow and functional programming, however, actors are dynamically reconfigurable and can model shared resources with changing local state. Concurrency is spawned in actors using asynchronous message-passing, pipelining, and the dynamic creation of actors. This thesis deals with some central issues in distributed computing. Specifically, problems of divergence and deadlock are addressed. For example, actors permit dynamic deadlock detection and removal. The problem of divergence is contained because independent transactions can execute concurrently and potentially infinite processes are nevertheless available for interaction.

A Distributed Model for Mobile Robot Environment-Learning and Navigation

A distributed method for mobile robot navigation, spatial learning, and path planning is presented. It is implemented on a sonar-based physical robot, Toto, consisting of three competence layers: 1) Low-level navigation: a collection of reflex-like rules resulting in emergent boundary-tracing. 2) Landmark detection: dynamically extracts landmarks from the robot's motion. 3) Map learning: constructs a distributed map of landmarks. The parallel implementation allows for localization in constant time. Spreading of activation computes both topological and physical shortest paths in linear time. The main issues addressed are: distributed, procedural, and qualitative representation and computation, emergent behaviors, dynamic landmarks, minimized communication.