Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Dynamic task allocation and coordination in cooperative multi-agent environments

La coordinació i assignació de tasques en entorns distribuïts ha estat un punt important de la recerca en els últims anys i aquests temes són el cor dels sistemes multi-agent. Els agents en aquests sistemes necessiten cooperar i considerar els altres agents en les seves accions i decisions. A més a més, els agents han de coordinar-se ells mateixos per complir tasques complexes que necessiten més d'un agent per ser complerta. Aquestes tasques poden ser tan complexes que els agents poden no saber la ubicació de les tasques o el temps que resta abans de que les tasques quedin obsoletes. Els agents poden necessitar utilitzar la comunicació amb l'objectiu de conèixer la tasca en l'entorn, en cas contrari, poden perdre molt de temps per trobar la tasca dins de l'escenari. De forma similar, el procés de presa de decisions distribuït pot ser encara més complexa si l'entorn és dinàmic, amb incertesa i en temps real. En aquesta dissertació, considerem entorns amb sistemes multi-agent amb restriccions i cooperatius (dinàmics, amb incertesa i en temps real). En aquest sentit es proposen dues aproximacions que permeten la coordinació dels agents. La primera és un mecanisme semi-centralitzat basat en tècniques de subhastes combinatòries i la idea principal es minimitzar el cost de les tasques assignades des de l'agent central cap als equips d'agents. Aquest algoritme té en compte les preferències dels agents sobre les tasques. Aquestes preferències estan incloses en el bid enviat per l'agent. La segona és un aproximació d'scheduling totalment descentralitzat. Això permet als agents assignar les seves tasques tenint en compte les preferències temporals sobre les tasques dels agents. En aquest cas, el rendiment del sistema no només depèn de la maximització o del criteri d'optimització, sinó que també depèn de la capacitat dels agents per adaptar les seves assignacions eficientment. Addicionalment, en un entorn dinàmic, els errors d'execució poden succeir a qualsevol pla degut a la incertesa i error de accions individuals. A més, una part indispensable d'un sistema de planificació és la capacitat de re-planificar. Aquesta dissertació també proveeix una aproximació amb re-planificació amb l'objectiu de permetre als agent re-coordinar els seus plans quan els problemes en l'entorn no permeti la execució del pla. Totes aquestes aproximacions s'han portat a terme per permetre als agents assignar i coordinar de forma eficient totes les tasques complexes en un entorn multi-agent cooperatiu, dinàmic i amb incertesa. Totes aquestes aproximacions han demostrat la seva eficiència en experiments duts a terme en l'entorn de simulació RoboCup Rescue.

Crisis, endeudamiento y desposesión en el mundo rural catalán de finales del siglo XIX

Esta tesis doctoral examina las repercusiones de la llamada "Gran Depresión" de finales del siglo XIX sobre la sociedad rural catalana a partir del análisis del que puede ser visto como uno de los síntomas más característicos de cualquier crisis agraria: la pérdida de derechos de propiedad sobre la tierra o sobre otros inmuebles de carácter rural como consecuencia de reclamaciones de deudas, promovidas por particulares o por el Estado, que culminaron en subasta pública. El trabajo ha sido dividido en dos secciones. En la primera se analiza la desposesión causada por procedimientos ejecutivos impulsados por la Administración de Hacienda por impuestos impagados. En la segunda se ha estudiado la actividad judicial que concluyó en subasta pública de bienes inmuebles, y se han mostrado sus relaciones con la situación agraria, especialmente en los sectores del trigo y de la vid.

Consumer welfare effects of introducing and labeling genetically modified food

Non-hypothetical valuations obtained from experimental auctions in three United States and two European locations were used to calculate welfare effects of introducing and labeling of genetically modified food. Under certain assumptions, we find that introduction of genetically modified food has been welfare enhancing, on average, for United States consumers but not so for Europeans and while mandatory labeling has been beneficial for European consumers, such a policy would be detrimental in the United States. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of consumers’ willingness to accept GM foods

This paper investigates Willingness to Accept (WTA) Genetic Modification (GM) foods based on experimental auctions carried out in the USA, UK and France. It explores perceptions of risk and benefits, moral concerns and their antecedents, attitudes to the environment and technology and trust in various sources using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Trust in information provided by industry proved to be the most important determinant of risk/benefit perceptions and WTA followed by general attitudes to the environment and technology. Education and age are also enhance perceived benefits and lower perceived risks of GM. Perception of risk/benefit and moral concerns all have significant effects on consumers' WTA but the perceived benefits are most important. The research suggests that trust-building by industry would be the most effective in enhancing GM acceptance.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Trading in open marketplace using trust and risk

In this paper, we propose buying and selling models for agents to trade in the open multi-agent marketplace. Unlike auctions, we take into account of the fact that agents trading in such open environments has to maximize their profits and at the same time, protect themselves from fraud and deception. We attempt to address this issue by incorporating the element of trust and risk management into our proposed buying and selling model. During buying, agents learn to select their partners based on the trustworthiness of the potential partner as well as its personal risk attitude. During selling, agents learn to increase the chances of winning a deal by adjusting their profit rate, which is a measure that considers both trust and risk. The novelty of this proposal is that it ensures agents continuing to seek maximum expected utility in a dynamic trading environment. Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of our approach.

The adverse effect of dummy auction bids on market value

The popularity of an auction as a means of selling residential real estate has increased markedly in recent years. The effectiveness of an auction program is heavily promoted by most real estate agents, claiming it to be the best means of attracting the best price from the highest bidder, It is based on the theory of gathering all buyers together at a publicised time, and then offering the property for sale to the open market.

In theory, the person most willing to buy the property will have the highest bid, supposedly agreeing at market value with the vendor (although above the vendor's reserve I. Unfortunately, the practice of dummy bidding has recently resurfaced and highlights serious flaws in the auction system, with hundreds of residential auctions conducted across Australia every weekend.

Clearly, it is in the vendor's best interests land the auctioneer's best interests, who is paid even more by the vendor if the price is higherl to achieve the highest offer from the last bidder. The tactic of dummy bids is designed to deceive genuine purchasers into a false sense of perception, where there appears to be more competition for the property than there actually exists.

This paper examines the auction process with the emphasis placed on the practice of dummy biding, It considers the broad implications for the definition of market value and also the overall residential market. Useful advice is also included for real estate valuers relying upon auction sale properties in their market analysis. As well as strongly supporting the auction concept, the authors suggest improvements to the overall auction process to ensure relevance to the definition of market value is maintained.

Property transactions : a note on ethics

Some activities that are applied in the property market to facilitate transactions have the potential to lead to unethical behaviour. Two conditions required for a sale price to be acceptable as market value are that the transaction is at arm’s length and the parties to the transaction are knowledgeable and prudent. The well-known difficulties associated with access to market pricing information are exacerbated by several of these activities including dummy bidding at auctions, two-tier marketing and the provision of lease incentives. Added to these is a common requirement that any negotiation be commercial-in-confidence. The lack of information has the potential to distort the market and this has been well publicised in recent times particularly in the residential market.
The definition of market value is visited and the nature of ethics in property transactions is outlined. Several examples of activities that could lead to unethical behaviour are described. It is concluded that unethical behaviour is hard to identify. Some recommendations are included for consideration and discussion.

Residential auction clearance rates – what do they really mean?

The residential market in Melbourne is often referred to as the ‘auction capital of the world’ with approximately 30-35% of housing transfers undertaken via the auction process, most of which are conducted on the weekend and then reported in the media the following day. The most quoted measurement of auction success is via the clearance rate which simply indicates the proportion of signed contracts of sale within the auction process. At the same time the clearance rate can have a relatively large variance where the residential market can traditionally range from very good (i.e. a high clearance rate) to very poor (i.e. a low clearance rate). The subsequent effect on the market can directly increase or decrease demand, predominantly based only on this single measure of the perceived level of auction clearance rates only.

This paper examines the concept of the auction clearance rates and the heavy reliance on the only one measure of success (i.e. the clearance rates), regardless of other variables. The emphasis is placed on the auction clearance rate as one measure of demand in the housing market but within the context of the definition of market value i.e. willing buyer-willing seller. This is supported by a discussion about other variables including the asking price, the auction process itself, marketing considerations and seasonal adjustments. The findings provide an insight into how to correctly interpret the auction clearance rate in the context of the overall supply-demand interactions. Whilst the auction process is clearly an integral part of the residential transfer process it is essential that the auction clearance rate is used with caution and also in conjunction with other variables.

Congestion and optimal immigration policy

This paper presents a model to explain the stylized fact that many countries have a low ratio of migrants in their population while some countries have a high ratio of migrants. Immigration improves the income of the domestic residents, but migrants also increase the congestion of public services. If migrants are unskilled and therefore pay low taxes, and the government does not limit access to these services, then the welfare of the domestic residents decreases with the number of migrants. Visa auctions can lower the cost of immigration control and substitute legal migrants for illegal migrants. If the government decides to limit the access of migrants to public services, immigration control becomes unnecessary and the optimal number of migrants can be very large.

Leilão multiunidade: principais resultados e aplicação ao mercado de energia brasileiro

O presente estudo é dividido em três partes: a primeira é um resumo dos principais resultados teóricos encontrados na literatura de Leilões Multiunidade que são úteis em leilões de geração de energia. Dentre eles, foram analisadas as características dos leilões Discriminatório, Uniforme, de Vickrey, Ascendente e Híbrido levando em consideração os critérios de eficiência e pagamento esperado. A segunda parte é uma tentativa de extensão de um modelo de leilão híbrido para o caso de uma unidade para o de multiunidade. Finalmente, a terceira parte explica como é feito o leilão de geração de energia no Brasil.

Teoria de Leilões com Aplicação ao Mercado de Petróleo Brasileiro

O processo de reforma que ocorreu na indústria petrolífera a partir da década de 1990, associada à transferência de serviços de utilidade pública para o setor privado, trouxe mudanças importantes para a economia. Neste contexto, a intensificação do uso de leilões, para a privatização das empresas públicas e para a concessão de direitos de exploração de seus serviços assumiu um papel de grande relevância na economia brasileira. A discussão sobre o desenho de leilão adotado para a venda de blocos petrolíferos é fundamental, pois representa o ponto inicial desta nova política. Sendo assim, este trabalho aborda os principais aspectos que fundamentam a escolha de um formato apropriado de leilão, detalhando as peculiaridades da indústria petrolífera e, finalmente, discutindo os resultados obtidos.

Incerteza e dívida pública prefixada no Brasil

This study analyses the bids¿ dispersion in fixed income government securities auctions issued by the National Treasury of Brazil. We try to estimate the bids¿ variance based on factors that may forecast its movement. We hope to help the security issuer by offering more data before the auction. The basic idea is to relate the market uncertainty with the primary auction of government securities. Results indicates the importance of uncertainty on the bidding decisions. It shows also the need for a liquid secondary market to the selling of long-term fixed income securities.