An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

Castles in the air: the life, times and influence of the Reverend Moses Harvey (1820-1901).

The period from 1874 to 1901 was a time of significant transition in the economic and political life of Newfoundland. Twenty years into responsible government and with Confederation on the backburner, the colony’s politicians turned their attention to economic diversification, landward development and carving out the island’s place in the British Empire. The period saw both economic prosperity and retrenchment; the construction of a trans-insular railway; the adoption of policies to foster agriculture, forestry, manufacturing and mining; and diplomatic efforts to resolve France’s outstanding claims on the northwest coast of the island. At the same time, the government made an attempt to intervene directly in its primary industry, the fisheries. It created a Fisheries Commission in 1889 that recommended conservation measures and artificial propagation as ways to restore the health of some of the island’s fish stocks. They also proposed new methods of curing, packaging and marketing Newfoundland’s cod, as well as a complete overhaul of the truck system. A major player in both the public and private debates surrounding all of these subjects was the Reverend Moses Harvey. Along with being minister of the Free Church of Scotland in St. John’s, Harvey was one of Newfoundland’s most active promoters in the late nineteenth century. He served as the media mouthpiece for both Prime Minister William Whiteway and Prime Minister Robert Thorburn; editing the Evening Mercury – the official organ of the Liberal Party and then the Reform Party – from 1882 to 1883 and 1885 until 1890. As well, Harvey wrote regular columns on Newfoundland issues for newspapers in London, New York, Boston, Montreal, Toronto, and Halifax. He also produced numerous books, articles, encyclopedia entries, and travel guides outlining the island’s attractions and its vast economic potential. In short, Harvey made a significant contribution in shaping the way residents and the outside world viewed Newfoundland during this period. This thesis examines late nineteenth-century Newfoundland through the writing of Moses Harvey. The biographical approach offers a fuller, more nuanced account of some of the major historical themes of the period including the politics of progress, opening up the interior, railway construction and attitudes toward the fisheries. It also provides an insider’s prospective on what led to some of the major political decisions, policy positions or compromises taken by the Whiteway and Thorburn governments. Finally, a more detailed review of Harvey’s work exposes the practical and political differences that he had with people like D.W. Prowse and Bishop Michael Howley. While these so-called “boomers” in Newfoundland’s historiography agreed on broad themes, they parted ways over what should be done with the fisheries and how best to channel the colony’s growing sense of nationalism.

Activity-based life cycle costing model for cost estimation and monitoring – Case: manned and autonomous dry bulk carrier

Recent developments in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence have given a push to a wider usage of these technologies in recent years, and nowadays, driverless transport systems are already state-of-the-art on certain legs of transportation. This has given a push for the maritime industry to join the advancement. The case organisation, AAWA initiative, is a joint industry-academia research consortium with the objective of developing readiness for the first commercial autonomous solutions, exploiting state-of-the-art autonomous and remote technology. The initiative develops both autonomous and remote operation technology for navigation, machinery, and all on-board operating systems. The aim of this study is to develop a model with which to estimate and forecast the operational costs, and thus enable comparisons between manned and autonomous cargo vessels. The building process of the model is also described and discussed. Furthermore, the model’s aim is to track and identify the critical success factors of the chosen ship design, and to enable monitoring and tracking of the incurred operational costs as the life cycle of the vessel progresses. The study adopts the constructive research approach, as the aim is to develop a construct to meet the needs of a case organisation. Data has been collected through discussions and meeting with consortium members and researchers, as well as through written and internal communications material. The model itself is built using activity-based life cycle costing, which enables both realistic cost estimation and forecasting, as well as the identification of critical success factors due to the process-orientation adopted from activity-based costing and the statistical nature of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. As the model was able to meet the multiple aims set for it, and the case organisation was satisfied with it, it could be argued that activity-based life cycle costing is the method with which to conduct cost estimation and forecasting in the case of autonomous cargo vessels. The model was able to perform the cost analysis and forecasting, as well as to trace the critical success factors. Later on, it also enabled, albeit hypothetically, monitoring and tracking of the incurred costs. By collecting costs this way, it was argued that the activity-based LCC model is able facilitate learning from and continuous improvement of the autonomous vessel. As with the building process of the model, an individual approach was chosen, while still using the implementation and model building steps presented in existing literature. This was due to two factors: the nature of the model and – perhaps even more importantly – the nature of the case organisation. Furthermore, the loosely organised network structure means that knowing the case organisation and its aims is of great importance when conducting a constructive research.

Exploiting Collective Effects to Direct Light Absorption in Natural and Artificial Light-harvesters

Photosynthesis –the conversion of sunlight to chemical energy –is fundamental for supporting life on our planet. Despite its importance, the physical principles that underpin the primary steps of photosynthesis, from photon absorption to electronic charge separation, remain to be understood in full. Electronic coherence within tightly-packed light-harvesting (LH) units or within individual reaction centers (RCs) has been recognized as an important ingredient for a complete understanding of the excitation energy transfer (EET) dynamics. However, the electronic coherence across units –RC and LH or LH and LH –has been consistently neglected as it does not play a significant role during these relatively slow transfer processes. Here, we turn our attention to the absorption process, which, as we will show, has a much shorter built-in timescale. We demonstrate that the- often overlooked- spatially extended but short-lived excitonic delocalization plays a relevant role in general photosynthetic systems. Most strikingly, we find that absorption intensity is, quite generally, redistributed from LH units to the RC, increasing the number of excitations which can effect charge separation without further transfer steps. A biomemetic nano-system is proposed which is predicted to funnel excitation to the RC-analogue, and hence is the first step towards exploiting these new design principles for efficient artificial light-harvesting.

Ambiente para avaliação de controladores fuzzy aplicados ao método de elevação artificial por bombeio centrífugo submerso

From their early days, Electrical Submergible Pumping (ESP) units have excelled in lifting much greater liquid rates than most of the other types of artificial lift and developed by good performance in wells with high BSW, in onshore and offshore environments. For all artificial lift system, the lifetime and frequency of interventions are of paramount importance, given the high costs of rigs and equipment, plus the losses coming from a halt in production. In search of a better life of the system comes the need to work with the same efficiency and security within the limits of their equipment, this implies the need for periodic adjustments, monitoring and control. How is increasing the prospect of minimizing direct human actions, these adjustments should be made increasingly via automation. The automated system not only provides a longer life, but also greater control over the production of the well. The controller is the brain of most automation systems, it is inserted the logic and strategies in the work process in order to get you to work efficiently. So great is the importance of controlling for any automation system is expected that, with better understanding of ESP system and the development of research, many controllers will be proposed for this method of artificial lift. Once a controller is proposed, it must be tested and validated before they take it as efficient and functional. The use of a producing well or a test well could favor the completion of testing, but with the serious risk that flaws in the design of the controller were to cause damage to oil well equipment, many of them expensive. Given this reality, the main objective of the present work is to present an environment for evaluation of fuzzy controllers for wells equipped with ESP system, using a computer simulator representing a virtual oil well, a software design fuzzy controllers and a PLC. The use of the proposed environment will enable a reduction in time required for testing and adjustments to the controller and evaluated a rapid diagnosis of their efficiency and effectiveness. The control algorithms are implemented in both high-level language, through the controller design software, such as specific language for programming PLCs, Ladder Diagram language.

Feeding ecology and life-history strategy of nesting males in a fish with long parental care, Lusitanian toadfish (Halobatrachus didactylus, Batrachoididae)

The Lusitanian toadfish, Halobatrachus didactylus, like other batrachoidids, is a benthic fish species with nesting behaviour during the breeding season. During this prolonged period it engages in mating activities and remains in the nest providing parental care. It is not known whether males feed while providing parental care but it is likely that their limited mobility may restrict their diet and influence their fitness. As a consequence, egg cannibalism could occur as a life-history strategy. The aim of the present study is to ascertain the feeding behaviour of nesting males, in comparison to mature non-nesting males, and to identify potential life-history traits related to egg cannibalism. Nest-holders were sampled from artificial nests placed in an intertidal area of the Tagus estuary, only exposed during spring low tides. The diet of nest-holders was compared with that of non-nesting mature males from the same area, captured by otter trawl. The present study demonstrates that despite their constrained mobility nest-holders feed during the breeding season, although in a more opportunistic fashion than non-nesting males. Nest-holders showed a generalist feeding behaviour, with a more heterogeneous diet. Egg cannibalism was not related to male condition, paternity or brood size but showed a higher incidence early in the season when water temperatures were lower. The results suggest a possible seasonal trade-off strategy between care and energy recovery, triggered by environmental factors, where under unfavourable conditions to sustain viable eggs the male may recover energy by eating eggs, thus benefiting future reproductive success, later in the season.

An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Individuals' Age Assessment

A link between patterns of pelvic growth and human life history is supported by the finding that, cross-culturally, variation in maturation rates of female pelvis are correlated with variation in ages of menarche and first reproduction, i.e., it is well known that the human dimensions of the pelvic bones depend on the gender and vary with the age. Indeed, one feature in which humans appear to be unique is the prolonged growth of the pelvis after the age of sexual maturity. Both the total superoinferior length and mediolateral breadth of the pelvis continues to grow markedly after puberty, and do not reach adult proportions until the late teens years. This continuation of growth is accomplished by relatively late fusion of the separate centers of ossification that form the bones of the pelvis. Hence, in this work we will focus on the development of an intelligent decision support system to predict individual’s age based on a pelvis' dimensions criteria. Some basic image processing techniques were applied in order to extract the relevant features from pelvic X-rays, being the computational framework built on top of a Logic Programming approach to Knowledge Representation and Reasoning that caters for the handling of incomplete, unknown, or even self-contradictory information, complemented with a Case Base approach to computing.

The Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) and its Association with Quality of Life in Ambulatory Patients Receiving Radiotherapy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the scored Patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) tool as an outcome measure in clinical nutrition practice and determine its association with quality of life (QoL). DESIGN: A prospective 4 week study assessing the nutritional status and QoL of ambulatory patients receiving radiation therapy to the head, neck, rectal or abdominal area. SETTING: Australian radiation oncology facilities. SUBJECTS: Sixty cancer patients aged 24-85 y. INTERVENTION: Scored PG-SGA questionnaire, subjective global assessment (SGA), QoL (EORTC QLQ-C30 version 3). RESULTS: According to SGA, 65.0% (39) of subjects were well-nourished, 28.3% (17) moderately or suspected of being malnourished and 6.7% (4) severely malnourished. PG-SGA score and global QoL were correlated (r=-0.66, P<0.001) at baseline. There was a decrease in nutritional status according to PG-SGA score (P<0.001) and SGA (P<0.001); and a decrease in global QoL (P<0.001) after 4 weeks of radiotherapy. There was a linear trend for change in PG-SGA score (P<0.001) and change in global QoL (P=0.003) between those patients who improved (5%) maintained (56.7%) or deteriorated (33.3%) in nutritional status according to SGA. There was a correlation between change in PG-SGA score and change in QoL after 4 weeks of radiotherapy (r=-0.55, P<0.001). Regression analysis determined that 26% of the variation of change in QoL was explained by change in PG-SGA (P=0.001). CONCLUSION: The scored PG-SGA is a nutrition assessment tool that identifies malnutrition in ambulatory oncology patients receiving radiotherapy and can be used to predict the magnitude of change in QoL.