Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Comparing Predictive Accuracy of Real Estate Pricing Models: An Applied Study for the City of Montreal.

Rapport de recherche

Accuracy of outcome anticipation, but not gaze behavior, differs against left- and right-handed penalties in team-handball goalkeeping

Low perceptual familiarity with relatively rarer left-handed as opposed to more common right-handed individuals may result in athletes' poorer ability to anticipate the former's action intentions. Part of such left-right asymmetry in visual anticipation could be due to an inefficient gaze strategy during confrontation with left-handed individuals. To exemplify, observers may not mirror their gaze when viewing left- vs. right-handed actions but preferentially fixate on an opponent's right body side, irrespective of an opponent's handedness, owing to the predominant exposure to right-handed actions. So far empirical verification of such assumption, however, is lacking. Here we report on an experiment where team-handball goalkeepers' and non-goalkeepers' gaze behavior was recorded while they predicted throw direction of left- and right-handed 7-m penalties shown as videos on a computer monitor. As expected, goalkeepers were considerably more accurate than non-goalkeepers and prediction was better against right- than left-handed penalties. However, there was no indication of differences in gaze measures (i.e., number of fixations, overall and final fixation duration, time-course of horizontal or vertical fixation deviation) as a function of skill group or the penalty-takers' handedness. Findings suggest that inferior anticipation of left-handed compared to right-handed individuals' action intentions may not be associated with misalignment in gaze behavior. Rather, albeit looking similarly, accuracy differences could be due to observers' differential ability of picking up and interpreting the visual information provided by left- vs. right-handed movements.

A system to evaluate the accuracy of a visual mosaicking methodology

When underwater vehicles navigate close to the ocean floor, computer vision techniques can be applied to obtain motion estimates. A complete system to create visual mosaics of the seabed is described in this paper. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the constructed mosaic is difficult to evaluate. The use of a laboratory setup to obtain an accurate error measurement is proposed. The system consists on a robot arm carrying a downward looking camera. A pattern formed by a white background and a matrix of black dots uniformly distributed along the surveyed scene is used to find the exact image registration parameters. When the robot executes a trajectory (simulating the motion of a submersible), an image sequence is acquired by the camera. The estimated motion computed from the encoders of the robot is refined by detecting, to subpixel accuracy, the black dots of the image sequence, and computing the 2D projective transform which relates two consecutive images. The pattern is then substituted by a poster of the sea floor and the trajectory is executed again, acquiring the image sequence used to test the accuracy of the mosaicking system

Upland Nesting Prairie Shorebirds: Use of Managed Wetland Basins and Accuracy of Breeding Surveys

Wetlands in southern Alberta are often managed to benefit waterfowl and cattle production. Effects on other species usually are not examined. I determined the effect of managed wetlands on upland-nesting shorebirds in southern Alberta by comparing numbers of breeding willets (Catoptrophorus semipalmatus), marbled godwits (Limosa fedoa), and long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) among areas of managed wetlands, natural wetland basins, and no wetland basins from 1995 to 2000. Surveys were carried out at 21 sites three times each year. Nine to ten of these areas (each 2 km2) were searched for nests annually from 1998–2000. Numbers of willets and marbled godwits and their nests were always highest in areas with managed wetlands, probably because almost all natural wetland basins were dry in this region in most years. Densities of willets seen during pre-incubation surveys averaged 2.3 birds/km2 in areas of managed wetlands, 0.4 in areas of natural wetland basins, and 0.1 in areas with no wetland basins. Nest densities of willets (one search each season) averaged 1.5, 0.9, and 0.3 nests/km2 in areas of managed, natural, and no wetland basins, respectively. Similarly, pre-incubation surveys averaged 1.6, 0.6, and 0.2 godwits/km2 in areas of managed, natural, and no wetland basins, and 1.2, 0.3, and 0.1 godwit nests/km2. For long-billed curlews, pre-incubation surveys averaged 0.1, 0.2, and 0.1 birds/km2, and 0, 0.2, and 0 nests/km2. Nest success was similar in areas with and without managed wetlands. Shallow managed wetlands in this region appear beneficial to willets and marbled godwits, but not necessarily to long-billed curlews. Only 8% of marked willets and godwits with nests in the area were seen or heard during surveys, compared with 29% of pre-laying individuals and 42% of birds with broods. This suggests that a low and variable percentage of these birds is counted during breeding bird surveys, likely limiting their ability to adequately monitor populations of these species.

Improvements to the accuracy of measurements of NO2 by zenith-sky visible spectrometers II: errors in zero using a more complete chemical model

Using a flexible chemical box model with full heterogeneous chemistry, intercepts of chemically modified Langley plots have been computed for the 5 years of zenith-sky NO2 data from Faraday in Antarctica (65°S). By using these intercepts as the effective amount in the reference spectrum, drifts in zero of total vertical NO2 were much reduced. The error in zero of total NO2 is ±0.03×1015 moleccm−2 from one year to another. This error is small enough to determine trends in midsummer and any variability in denoxification between midwinters. The technique also suggests a more sensitive method for determining N2O5 from zenith-sky NO2 data.

The accuracy of Doppler radar wind retrievals using insects as targets

Insect returns from the UK's Doppler weather radars were collected in the summers of 2007 and 2008, to ascertain their usefulness in providing information about boundary layer winds. Such observations could be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts of convective showers before precipitation begins. Significant numbers of insect returns were observed during daylight hours on a number of days through this period, when they were detected at up to 30 km range from the radars, and up to 2 km above sea level. The range of detectable insect returns was found to vary with time of year and temperature. There was also a very weak correlation with wind speed and direction. Use of a dual-polarized radar revealed that the insects did not orient themselves at random, but showed distinct evidence of common orientation on several days, sometimes at an angle to their direction of travel. Observation minus model background residuals of wind profiles showed greater bias and standard deviation than that of other wind measurement types, which may be due to the insects' headings/airspeeds and to imperfect data extraction. The method used here, similar to the Met Office's procedure for extracting precipitation returns, requires further development as clutter contamination remained one of the largest error contributors. Wind observations derived from the insect returns would then be useful for data assimilation applications.

The accuracy of digital elevation models derived from digitised contour data

Although accuracy of digital elevation models (DEMs) can be quantified and measured in different ways, each is influenced by three main factors: terrain character, sampling strategy and interpolation method. These parameters, and their interaction, are discussed. The generation of DEMs from digitised contours is emphasised because this is the major source of DEMs, particularly within member countries of OEEPE. Such DEMs often exhibit unwelcome artifacts, depending on the interpolation method employed. The origin and magnitude of these effects and how they can be reduced to improve the accuracy of the DEMs are also discussed.

The accuracy of using the Ulysses result of the spatial invariance of the radial heliospheric field to compute the open solar flux

We survey observations of the radial magnetic field in the heliosphere as a function of position, sunspot number, and sunspot cycle phase. We show that most of the differences between pairs of simultaneous observations, normalized using the square of the heliocentric distance and averaged over solar rotations, are consistent with the kinematic "flux excess" effect whereby the radial component of the frozen-in heliospheric field is increased by longitudinal solar wind speed structure. In particular, the survey shows that, as expected, the flux excess effect at high latitudes is almost completely absent during sunspot minimum but is almost the same as within the streamer belt at sunspot maximum. We study the uncertainty inherent in the use of the Ulysses result that the radial field is independent of heliographic latitude in the computation of the total open solar flux: we show that after the kinematic correction for the excess flux effect has been made it causes errors that are smaller than 4.5%, with a most likely value of 2.5%. The importance of this result for understanding temporal evolution of the open solar flux is reviewed.

A note on the accuracy of PAC-likelihood inference with microsatellite data

Stephens and Donnelly have introduced a simple yet powerful importance sampling scheme for computing the likelihood in population genetic models. Fundamental to the method is an approximation to the conditional probability of the allelic type of an additional gene, given those currently in the sample. As noted by Li and Stephens, the product of these conditional probabilities for a sequence of draws that gives the frequency of allelic types in a sample is an approximation to the likelihood, and can be used directly in inference. The aim of this note is to demonstrate the high level of accuracy of "product of approximate conditionals" (PAC) likelihood when used with microsatellite data. Results obtained on simulated microsatellite data show that this strategy leads to a negligible bias over a wide range of the scaled mutation parameter theta. Furthermore, the sampling variance of likelihood estimates as well as the computation time are lower than that obtained with importance sampling on the whole range of theta. It follows that this approach represents an efficient substitute to IS algorithms in computer intensive (e.g. MCMC) inference methods in population genetics. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seston capture by Hydropsyche siltalai and the accuracy of capture efficiency estimates

1. Suspension feeding by caseless caddisfly larvae (Trichoptera) constitutes a major pathway for energy flow, and strongly influences productivity, in streams and rivers. 2. Consideration of the impact of these animals on lotic ecosystems has been strongly influenced by a single study investigating the efficiency of particle capture of nets built by one species of hydropsychid caddisfly. 3. Using water sampling techniques at appropriate spatial scales, and taking greater consideration of local hydrodynamics than previously, we examined the size-frequency distribution of particles captured by the nets of Hydropsyche siltalai. Our results confirm that capture nets are selective in terms of particle size, and in addition suggest that this selectivity is for particles likely to provide the most energy. 4. By incorporating estimates of flow diversion around the nets of caseless caddisfly larvae, we show that capture efficiency (CE) is considerably higher than previously estimated, and conclude that more consideration of local hydrodynamics is needed to evaluate the efficiency of particle capture. 5. We use our results to postulate a mechanistic explanation for a recent example of interspecific facilitation, whereby a reduction of near-bed velocities seen in single species monocultures leads to increased capture rates and local depletion of seston within the region of reduced velocity.

Quantitative analysis of accuracy of an inertial/acoustic 6DOF tracking system in motion

An increasing number of neuroscience experiments are using virtual reality to provide a more immersive and less artificial experimental environment. This is particularly useful to navigation and three-dimensional scene perception experiments. Such experiments require accurate real-time tracking of the observer's head in order to render the virtual scene. Here, we present data on the accuracy of a commonly used six degrees of freedom tracker (Intersense IS900) when it is moved in ways typical of virtual reality applications. We compared the reported location of the tracker with its location computed by an optical tracking method. When the tracker was stationary, the root mean square error in spatial accuracy was 0.64 mm. However, we found that errors increased over ten-fold (up to 17 mm) when the tracker moved at speeds common in virtual reality applications. We demonstrate that the errors we report here are predominantly due to inaccuracies of the IS900 system rather than the optical tracking against which it was compared. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the accuracy of a computerized decision support system for digoxin dosing in primary care: an observational study

Background: This study was carried out as part of a European Union funded project (PharmDIS-e+), to develop and evaluate software aimed at assisting physicians with drug dosing. A drug that causes particular problems with drug dosing in primary care is digoxin because of its narrow therapeutic range and low therapeutic index. Objectives: To determine (i) accuracy of the PharmDIS-e+ software for predicting serum digoxin levels in patients who are taking this drug regularly; (ii) whether there are statistically significant differences between predicted digoxin levels and those measured by a laboratory and (iii) whether there are differences between doses prescribed by general practitioners and those suggested by the program. Methods: We needed 45 patients to have 95% Power to reject the null hypothesis that the mean serum digoxin concentration was within 10% of the mean predicted digoxin concentration. Patients were recruited from two general practices and had been taking digoxin for at least 4 months. Exclusion criteria were dementia, low adherence to digoxin and use of other medications known to interact to a clinically important extent with digoxin. Results: Forty-five patients were recruited. There was a correlation of 0·65 between measured and predicted digoxin concentrations (P < 0·001). The mean difference was 0·12 μg/L (SD 0·26; 95% CI 0·04, 0·19, P = 0·005). Forty-seven per cent of the patients were prescribed the same dose as recommended by the software, 44% were prescribed a higher dose and 9% a lower dose than recommended. Conclusion: PharmDIS-e+ software was able to predict serum digoxin levels with acceptable accuracy in most patients.

Assessing the accuracy of CME speed and trajectory estimates from STEREO observations through a comparison of independent methods

We have estimated the speed and direction of propagation of a number of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) using single-spacecraft data from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) wide-field cameras. In general, these values are in good agreement with those predicted by Thernisien, Vourlidas, and Howard in Solar Phys. 256, 111 -aEuro parts per thousand 130 (2009) using a forward modelling method to fit CMEs imaged by the STEREO COR2 coronagraphs. The directions of the CMEs predicted by both techniques are in good agreement despite the fact that many of the CMEs under study travel in directions that cause them to fade rapidly in the HI images. The velocities estimated from both techniques are in general agreement although there are some interesting differences that may provide evidence for the influence of the ambient solar wind on the speed of CMEs. The majority of CMEs with a velocity estimated to be below 400 km s(-1) in the COR2 field of view have higher estimated velocities in the HI field of view, while, conversely, those with COR2 velocities estimated to be above 400 km s(-1) have lower estimated HI velocities. We interpret this as evidence for the deceleration of fast CMEs and the acceleration of slower CMEs by interaction with the ambient solar wind beyond the COR2 field of view. We also show that the uncertainties in our derived parameters are influenced by the range of elongations over which each CME can be tracked. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the predicted arrival time of a CME at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU) to within six hours, the CME needs to be tracked out to at least 30 degrees elongation. This is in good agreement with predictions of the accuracy of our technique based on Monte Carlo simulations.