Comparison of two approaches for estimating natural mortality based on longevity

Vetter (1988) noted that her review of the estimation of the instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) was initiated by a discussion among colleagues that identified M as the single most impor ta nt but least well-estimated parameter in fishery models. A lthough much has been accomplished in the inter vening years, M remains one of the most difficult parameters to estimate in fishery stock assessments. A number of novel approaches using tagging and telemetry data provide promise for making reliable direct estimates of M for a given stock (Hearn et al., 1998 ; Frusher and Hoenig, 2001; Hightower et al., 2001; Latour et al., 2003; Pollock et al., 2004). However, such methods are often impracticable and fishery scientists must approximate M by using estimates made for other stocks of the same or similar species or by predicting M from features of the species’ life history (Beverton and Holt, 1959; Beverton, 1963; Alverson and Carney, 1975; Pauly, 1980; Hoenig, 1983; Peterson and Wroblewski, 1984; Roff, 1984; Gunderson and Dygert, 1988; Chen and Watanabe, 1989; Charnov, 1993; Jensen, 1996; Lorenzen, 1996).

Critério estatístico para obtenção de valores de NSPT para previsão da capacidade de carga de estacas por métodos semi empíricos.

Uma das tarefas mais desafiadoras do engenheiro na área da Geotecnia é a escolha dos valores de parâmetros geotécnicos obtidos de ensaios de campo ou laboratório e que serão utilizados nos modelos analíticos ou numéricos na fase de projeto de fundações. Diante das incertezas inerentes aos ensaios de SPT e da heterogeneidade de abordagens para a utilização dos valores de NSPT, é proposta neste estudo, a aplicação de um critério estatístico para obtenção de valores de NSPT, a partir da construção de intervalos de confiança de 95% de probabilidade em torno da reta ajustada de regressão linear simples entre a variável aleatória NSPT e a profundidade. Os valores obtidos de NSPT pelo critério aplicado foram utilizados na previsão da capacidade de carga de 19 estacas isoladas a partir da utilização de três métodos semi-empíricos: Aoki-Velloso (1975) com coeficientes alterados por Monteiro (1997), Décourt & Quaresma (1978) alterado pelo método de Décourt (1996) e Método de Alonso (1996). As cargas de ruptura dessas 19 estacas ensaiadas através de Provas de Carga Estática foram obtidas pelos métodos de extrapolação de Van Der Veen (1953) e Décourt (1996) e serviram para comparação e consequente validação do critério estatístico. Adicionalmente, com fulcro no item 6.2.1.2.1 da ABNT NBR 6122:2010 Resistência calculada por método semi-empírico, foram avaliados os fatores de segurança em relação às cargas de projeto, inclusive, também se utilizando da premissa de reconhecimento de regiões representativas, levando em conta o número de ensaios de SPT executados, fato que promove uma diminuição da incerteza dos parâmetros, apontando a um menor fator de segurança. A dissertação enfatiza as vantagens de um adequado tratamento estatístico dos parâmetros geotécnicos, a exemplo da recomendação já existente nas normas internacionais como Eurocódigo e outras. O critério construído permite e encoraja análises e decisões racionais no universo das partes interessadas consumidores, projetistas, fiscais de obras, contratantes e comunidade científica promovendo as discussões de forma mais objetiva e harmoniosa sobre o tema.

River Teign Fish Survey 1990

This is the River Teign Fisheries Survey from 1990 by the Environment Agency Archives South West (unpublished). The aim of the survey was to assess the distribution and relative abundance of salmonid fish in the River Teign. Thirty six sites were examined; twenty one of them had been examined in previous quantitative fish surveys. At each site, all fish species encountered were caught and measured, however, only data for salmonid fishes has been examined. The results are compared with those of the 1963 and 1972 surveys carried out by the Devon River Authority and the 1975 and 1979 surveys carried out by South West Water Authority. A full list of sites together with their location, fish densities, lengths, weights and ages is attached.

First recorded bloom of Navicula Bory in a mangrove habitat of Karachi

Discolouration of sands and other marine substrata caused by benthic diatoms have been reported by Aleem (1950) Eaton and Moss (1975), Sullivan (1980), Maple (1983), Navarro (1983) and Wah and Wee (1988). However, this is for the first time such a phenomenon is being reported from a mangrove habitat of Karachi. It was caused by a pennate diatom Navicula cancellata Donkin.

Percentage composition of Brachyuran larvae collected during 1994 in Manora Channel, Karachi, Pakistan

Brachyuran larvae are the most common zooplankton component of the Manora Channel, Karachi, Pakistan. The identification of these larvae would assist in the assessment of brachyuran species and provide information on percentage composition, occurrence, abundance and breeding habits of the brachyuran species in the Manora Channel area. However plankton caught larvae is not easily identified. An accurate identification of such material is only possible by the comparison with larvae reared under laboratory conditions and documented with illustrations. The identifications for this present study were based on the works of Gurney (1938); Atkins (1954); Chhapgar (1955); Raja Bai (1960); Hashmi (1969, 1970a, b); Baba and Miyata (1971); Kakati and Sankolli (1975); Rice (1975); Kakati (1977); Lim and Tan (1981); Yatsuzuka and Sakai (1984); Fielder, et al (1984); Amir (1989, M. Phil thesis unpublished); Ingle (1992); Siddiqui and Tirmizi (1992); Tirmizi et al (1993); Bano (1999, M. Phil thesis unpublished); Ghory and Siddiqui (2001); Ghory (2002, M. Phil thesis unpublished); Ghory and Siddiqui (2002).

Amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis to identify the genetic structure of the Gymnocypris przewalskii (Kessler, 1876) population from the Qinghai Basin, China

Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) was used to analyse the genetic structure of 45 individuals of Gymnocypris przewalskii (Kessler, 1876), an endangered and state-protected rare fish species, from three areas [the Heima (HM), Buha (BH) and Shaliu rivers (SL), all draining into Qinghai Lake]. A total of 563 polymorphic loci were detected. The HM, BH and SL populations have 435, 433 and 391 loci, respectively (Zhu and Wu, 1975), which account for 77.26%, 76.91% and 69.45% of the total number of polymorphic loci of each population, respectively. The Nei indices of genetic diversities (H) of the three populations were calculated to be 0.2869 (HM), 0.2884 (BH) and 0.2663 (SL), respectively. Their Shannon informative indices are 0.4244, 0.4251 and 0.3915, respectively. Research results show that the mean genetic distance between HM and BH is the smallest (0.0511), between BH and SL is the second shortest (0.0608), and between HM and SL is the largest (0.0713), with the mean genetic distance among the three populations being over 0.05. Data mentioned above indicate that the three populations have a certain genetic differentiation. The total genetic diversity (H-t = 0.3045) and the mean value of genetic diversity within the population (H-s = 0.2786) indicate that the variations have mainly come from within the population.

孤东油田馆陶组河流相储层流动单元模型与剩余油分布规律研究

Since C.L. Hearn presented the concept of flow unit in 1984, its generation mechanisms and controlling factors have been studied in many aspects using different methods by researchers. There are some basic methods to do the research, and there are several concepts and classification standards about flow unit. Based on previous achievements and using methodologies from sedimentary geology, geophysics, seismic stratigraphy, and reservoir engineering, the author systemically studies the factors controlling flow unit, puts forward a series of methods for recognition, classification and evaluation of flow unit. The results obtained in this paper have important significance not only for understanding the flow unit, but also for revealing the distribution of remaining oil. As a case, this paper deals with the reservoir rocks in Guantao Group of Gudong Oilfield. Zhanhua Sag, Jiyang Depression in Bohaiwan Basin. Based on the study of stratigraphic, depositional and structural characteristics, the author establishes reservoir geological models, reveals the geological characteristics of oil-bearing reservoir of fluvial facies, points out the factors controlling flow unit and geological parameters for classification of flow unit. and summarizes methods and technologies for flow unit study when geological, well-logging and mathematical methods are used. It is the first attempt in literatures to evaluate reservoir by well-logging data constrained by geological conditions, then a well-logging evaluation model can be built. This kind of model is more precise than ever for calculating physical parameters in flow unit. In a well bore, there are six methods to recognize a flow unit. Among them, the activity function and intra-layer difference methods are the most effective. Along a section, the composition type of flow unit can be located according amplitude and impedance on seismic section. Slice method and other methods are used to distinguish flow unit. In order to reveal the distribution laws of flow unit in space, the author create a new method, named combination and composition of flow unit. Based on microscopic pore structure research, the classification methods of flow unit are developed. There are three types of flow unit in the reservoir of fluvial facies. They have their own lithology, petrophysics and pore structure character. Using judgement method, standard functions are built to determine the class of flow unit of fluvial facies. Combining reservoir engineering methods, the distribution laws of remaining oil in different types, or in different part of a flow unit are studied. It is evident that the remaining oil is controlled by the type of flow unit. The author reveals the relationship between flow unit and remaining oil distribution, builds the flowing models, predicts the variation of reservoir parameters in space, put forward different methods developing remaining oil in different flow unit. Especially, based on the results obtained in this paper, some suggestions for the adjustment of the developing flow units have been applied in Districts No.4 and No.7, and good results have been yielded. So, the results of this paper can guide oil field development. They are useful and significant for developing the remaining oil and enhancing the oil recovery efficiency.

有机质热成熟度指标的探讨——烷基萘和烷基菲指标

多环芳烃及其烷基取代物广泛分布于原油。古代沉积物及煤中，也存在于土壤和近代沉积物中，近代沉积物中多环芳烃（PAH），已有很多研究。其起源，概括地说，有两个方面，人类活动的和天然的，人类活动造成的多环芳烃，主要是在化石燃料（主要是煤）燃烧过程中产生的，在过去的七十至一百年时间里，地球表层多环芳烃浓度急剧增加（Wakeham et al, 1980）。由于某些多环芳烃具有强烈致癌性，如苯并[a]芘，已成为环境检测的示踪化合物，研究PAH的区域变化，是环境科学的重人的课题。PAH的天然起源，则提出了多种假说，生物体能合成某些PAH现在看来是通过生物体聚集而非实际生物合成（Hase and Hites, 1976）；也许天然油苗和古代沉物风化作用对某些地区PAH有贡献，然而现代沉积物中PAH的分布与原油的相差甚远（Youngblood and Blumer, 1975）；森林和大草原燃烧也被认为是近代沉积物中PAH的重要来源（Blumer and Youngbood, 1975；Youngblood and Blumer；1975）；某些生物前身物在早期成岩阶段的演化，也是PAH的来源，Laflamme等（1978）和Wakeham等（1980）对此作了较详细研究。

Sufrimiento y pesimismo en Schopenhauer

El presente artículo investiga de qué forma la centralidad del sufrimiento en la filosofía de Schopenhauer sirve para fundamentar su pesimismo. Tres son los argumentos analizados: el lugar del sufrimiento en el mundo, su lugar en la conciencia humana y su lugar frente a la felicidad. A la luz de estos tres argumentos, se destaca que el vínculo indisoluble entre el sufrimiento y la esencia del mundo, la determinación del sufrimiento en la conciencia, tanto en su génesis como en su intensidad, y su anterioridad ontológica frente a la felicidad hacen del pesimismo una categoría necesaria. Finalmente, se señala una posible contribución del pesimismo schopenhaueriano a la crítica social contemporánea, considerando la idea de mundo que el capitalismo tardío promueve.

La cartographie des sites de régulation génétique à partir de données de débalancement allélique

En 1975, Wilson et King ont proposé que l'évolution opère non seulement via des changements affectant la structure des protéines, mais aussi via des mutations qui modifient la régulation génétique. L'étude des éléments régulateurs de l'expression génétique a un rôle important dans la compréhension de l'expression de différentes maladies et de la réponse thérapeutique. Nous avons développé un algorithme bio- informatique qui nous permet rapidement de trouver des sites de régulation génétique à travers tout le génome et pour une grande quantité de gènes. Notre approche consiste à trouver des sites polymorphes (SNPs) qui sont en déséquilibre de liaison avec le débalancement allélique (AI) afin de cartographier la région régulatrice et le site responsable. Notre méthode est avantageuse par rapport à d'autres méthodes, car elle n'a pas besoin des données « phasées». De plus, les données de débalancement allélique ne sont pas affectées par des facteurs externes étant donné qu'ils sont mesurés dans la même cellule. Nous avons démontré que notre approche est fiable et qu'elle peut détecter des sites loin du gène. De plus, il peut être appliqué à des données de génotypage sans avoir besoin de les « phaser » .

Capital humain et différentiel de revenu chez les artistes canadiens

L’essence de la théorie du capital humain (Becker, 1964) prédit que l’investissement dans les activités visant à renforcer le potentiel productif des individus se traduit par une augmentation de leurs revenus tout au long de leur carrière (Benjamin, Gunderson et Riddell, 2002 : 245). Pour le groupe occupationnel constitué par les artistes, la littérature s’accorde pourtant pour dire que l’investissement en capital humain demeure rentable financièrement, mais à un niveau sensiblement moindre que pour les autres professions (Snooks, 1983; Filer, 1990; Rengers, 2002; Alper et Wassall, 2006). Nous exposons les théories du capital humain, des différences de salaire compensatoires (Smith, 1776) ainsi que la théorie hédonique des salaires (Rosen, 1974; Rosen et Thaler, 1975) afin d’atteindre deux objectifs. Premièrement, nous cherchons à vérifier empiriquement l’impact de l’acquisition de capital humain sur le revenu d’emploi autonome des artistes canadiens . Dans une autre perspective, nous souhaitons également évaluer la nature et la taille du différentiel de revenu d’emploi par rapport aux autres professions et investiguer les facteurs sur lesquels il repose. Le projet comble un vide dans la littérature portant sur les déterminants du revenu d’emploi des artistes canadiens et permet de réfléchir à l’orientation des politiques publiques culturelles entourant la formation académique de ceux-ci. Nous employons une analyse de régression multivariée sur des variables de capital humain en ayant recours aux données du recensement canadien de 2006 . Plus précisément, nous tentons de mesurer la relation associative entre le revenu de travail autonome exprimé sous forme de logarithme du salaire hebdomaire des artistes canadiens et la scolarité, l’expérience de travail, le sexe, le statut marital légal, la profession/spécialité artistique (classification selon la CNP-S, en vigueur en 2006), le statut d’immigrant, le statut de minorité visible, le fait d’être le principal soutien de la famille ainsi que la zone de résidence. Les résultats nous apprennent que la scolarité demeure rentable financièrement pour la majorité des spécialités artistiques, mais que des profils de scolarité précis ont avantage à être privilégiés selon la spécialité artistique. L’expérience de travail s’avère quant à elle moins rentable au niveau de la rémunération que chez les autres professions, tout comme elle est moins avantageuse financière pour les artistes issus des arts performatifs chez qui la carrière se termine habituellement assez tôt. En ce qui concerne l’effet des variables sociodémographiques, soulignons seulement que le fait d’être de sexe masculin est associé à de plus hauts revenus chez les artistes, mais dans une proportion moindre que chez les autres professions. Quant aux effets des statuts d’immigrant et de minorité visible sur le revenu d’emploi, ceux-ci varient mais demeurent moins pénalisants chez les artistes, ce qui suggère que le marché du travail culturel serait moins discriminant que le marché du travail traditionnel.

Regression models for bivariate survival data

Multivariate lifetime data arise in various forms including recurrent event data when individuals are followed to observe the sequence of occurrences of a certain type of event; correlated lifetime when an individual is followed for the occurrence of two or more types of events, or when distinct individuals have dependent event times. In most studies there are covariates such as treatments, group indicators, individual characteristics, or environmental conditions, whose relationship to lifetime is of interest. This leads to a consideration of regression models.The well known Cox proportional hazards model and its variations, using the marginal hazard functions employed for the analysis of multivariate survival data in literature are not sufficient to explain the complete dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector. Motivated by this, in Chapter 2, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model using vector hazard function of Johnson and Kotz (1975), in which the covariates under study have different effect on two components of the vector hazard function. The proposed model is useful in real life situations to study the dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector . The well known partial likelihood approach is used for the estimation of parameter vectors. We then introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for gap times of recurrent events in Chapter 3. The model incorporates both marginal and joint dependence of the distribution of gap times on the covariate vector . In many fields of application, mean residual life function is considered superior concept than the hazard function. Motivated by this, in Chapter 4, we considered a new semi-parametric model, bivariate proportional mean residual life time model, to assess the relationship between mean residual life and covariates for gap time of recurrent events. The counting process approach is used for the inference procedures of the gap time of recurrent events. In many survival studies, the distribution of lifetime may depend on the distribution of censoring time. In Chapter 5, we introduced a proportional hazards model for duration times and developed inference procedures under dependent (informative) censoring. In Chapter 6, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for competing risks data under right censoring. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of the parameters of different models developed in previous chapters, were studied. The proposed models were applied to various real life situations.

Nonparametric Estimation of Survivor Function in Bivariate Competing Risk Models’

So far, in the bivariate set up, the analysis of lifetime (failure time) data with multiple causes of failure is done by treating each cause of failure separately. with failures from other causes considered as independent censoring. This approach is unrealistic in many situations. For example, in the analysis of mortality data on married couples one would be interested to compare the hazards for the same cause of death as well as to check whether death due to one cause is more important for the partners’ risk of death from other causes. In reliability analysis. one often has systems with more than one component and many systems. subsystems and components have more than one cause of failure. Design of high-reliability systems generally requires that the individual system components have extremely high reliability even after long periods of time. Knowledge of the failure behaviour of a component can lead to savings in its cost of production and maintenance and. in some cases, to the preservation of human life. For the purpose of improving reliability. it is necessary to identify the cause of failure down to the component level. By treating each cause of failure separately with failures from other causes considered as independent censoring, the analysis of lifetime data would be incomplete. Motivated by this. we introduce a new approach for the analysis of bivariate competing risk data using the bivariate vector hazard rate of Johnson and Kotz (1975).

Commitment of women industrial workers with special reference to electronics industry in Kerala

In this study of workers of the two industrial units, it has been found that the women workers are more committed to the organization than the men workers. The organizational commitment has been a popular research topic among organizational sociologists, industrial psychologists and labour relations specialists. Much of the early research was directed on organizational commitment of men workers and studies on organizational commitment of women workers were less when compared to that of men workers. The results of this study is partially supported by the findings of Aranya and Jacobson (1975) who found that parental responsibility is linked with maintaining stable patterns of employment.

The complementary exponential power lifetime model

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which can handle bathtub-shaped unimodal increasing and decreasing hazard rate functions The model has three parameters and generalizes the exponential power distribution proposed by Smith and Bain (1975) with the inclusion of an additional shape parameter The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed A small-scale simulation study examines the performance of the likelihood ratio statistics under small and moderate sized samples Three real datasets Illustrate the methodology (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved