A Macroscopic Model for First Return Stroke of Lightning

A lightning return stroke model for a downward flash is proposed. The model includes underlying physical phenomena governing return stroke evolution, namely, electric field due to charge distributed along the leader and cloud, transient enhancement of series channel conductance at the bridging regime, and the nonlinear variation of channel conductance, which supports the return stroke current evolution. Thermal effects of free burning arc at the stroke wave front and its impact on channel conductance are studied. A first-order arc model for determining the dynamic channel conductance along with a field-dependent conductivity for corona sheath is used in the model. The model predicts consistent current propagation along the channel with regard to current amplitude and return stroke velocity. The model is also capable of predicting the remote electromagnetic fields that are consistent with the experimental observations.

Genesis of return stroke current evolution at the wavefront

The channel dynamics at the wavefront is quite complex and is basically responsible for the evolution of return stroke current. The physical processes that actually contribute to the current evolution are not very clearly known. The enhancement of channel conductance at the wavefront is necessary for the current evolution and hence, return stroke. With regard to this, several questions arise like: (i) what causes the enhancement of this conductance, (ii) as the channel core temperature and electrical conductance are closely related, does one support the other and (iii) is the increase in core temperature on the nascent section of the channel is the result of free burning arc of the wavefront just below. These questions are investigated in detail in this work with appropriate transient thermal analysis and a macroscopic physical model for the lightning return stroke. Results clearly indicate that the contribution from the thermal field of the wavefront region to the adjacent nascent channel section is negligible as compared to the field enhancement brought in by the same. In other words, the whole process of return stroke evolution is dependent on the local heat generation at the nascent section caused by the enhancement of the electric field due to the arrival of the wavefront.

An inquisitive analysis on the temporal variation of return stroke current essential for producing observed remote electro-magnetic fields

The gross characteristics of spatio-temporal current evolution in the return stroke phase of a cloud-to-ground lightning are rather well defined. However, they by themselves do not ensure the salient features for the resulting remote Electro- Magnetic Fields (EMFs). In spite of significant efforts in the engineering models wherein, the spatio-temporal current distribution all along the channel is specified by the design, all the salient features of remote EMFs could not be achieved. Only the current evolution that ensures the basic characteristics along with its ability to reproduce all the salient features of remote EMFs ranging from 50 m – 200 km from the lightning channel, can be considered as a realistic return stroke channel current. In view of this, the present work intends to investigate on the required fine features of the return stroke current evolution that yields all the desired features. To ensure that the current evolution is not arbitrary but obeys the involved basic physical processes, a recently developed physical model will be employed for the analysis.

Analysis of Bandwidth-Unit-Vector-Distortion Tradeoff in PLL During Abnormal Grid Conditions

Phase-locked loops (PLLs) are necessary in applications which require grid synchronization. Presence of unbalance or harmonics in the grid voltage creates errors in the estimated frequency and angle of a PLL. The error in estimated angle has the effect of distorting the unit vectors generated by the PLL. In this paper, analytical expressions are derived which determine the error in the phase angle estimated by a PLL when there is unbalance and harmonics in the grid voltage. By using the derived expressions, the total harmonic distortion (THD) and the fundamental phase error of the unit vectors can be determined for a given PLL topology and a given level of unbalance and distortion in the grid voltage. The accuracy of the results obtained from the analytical expressions is validated with the simulation and experimental results for synchronous reference frame PLL (SRF-PLL). Based on these expressions, a new tuning method for the SRF-PLL is proposed which quantifies the tradeoff between the unit vector THD and the bandwidth of the SRF-PLL. Using this method, the exact value of the bandwidth of the SRF-PLL can be obtained for a given worst case grid voltage unbalance and distortion to have an acceptable level of unit vector THD. The tuning method for SRF-PLL is also validated experimentally.

Return levels of hydrologic droughts under climate change

Developments in the statistical extreme value theory, which allow non-stationary modeling of changes in the frequency and severity of extremes, are explored to analyze changes in return levels of droughts for the Colorado River. The transient future return levels (conditional quantiles) derived from regional drought projections using appropriate extreme value models, are compared with those from observed naturalized streamflows. The time of detection is computed as the time at which significant differences exist between the observed and future extreme drought levels, accounting for the uncertainties in their estimates. Projections from multiple climate model-scenario combinations are considered; no uniform pattern of changes in drought quantiles is observed across all the projections. While some projections indicate shifting to another stationary regime, for many projections which are found to be non-stationary, detection of change in tail quantiles of droughts occurs within the 21st century with no unanimity in the time of detection. Earlier detection is observed in droughts levels of higher probability of exceedance. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe

Revised: 2006-07

A proposal for sea otter protection and research and request for the return of management to the State of California

v.1 - Text and Summaries (272 page document)

Long memory in return structures from developed markets

[En]The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the market efficiency hypothesis. It poses a serious challenge to the supporters of random walk behavior of the stock returns indicating a potentially predictable component in the series dynamics. We computed Hurst-Mandelbrot’s Classical R/S statistic, Lo’s statistic and semi parametric GPH statistic using spectral regression. The findings suggest existence of long memory in volatility and random walk for logarithmic return series in general for all the selected stock market indices. Findings are in line with the stylized facts of financial time series.

Analysis of fish diversion efficiency and survivorship in the fish return system at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station

This study examined the efficiency of fish diversion and survivorship of diverted fishes in the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Fish Return System in 1984 and 1985. Generally, fishes were diverted back to the ocean with high frequency, particularly in 1984. Most species were diverted at rates of 80% or more. Over 90% of the most abundant species, Engraulis mordax, were diverted. The system worked particularly well for strong-swimming forms such as Paralobrax clothratus, Atherinopsis californiensis, and Xenistius californiensis, and did not appreciably divert weaker-swimming species such as Porichthys notatus, Heterostichus rostratus, and Syngnathus sp. Return rates of some species were not as high in 1985 as in 1984. Individuals of most tested species survived both transit through the fish return system and 96 hours in a holding net. Some species, such as E. mordox, X. californiensis, and Umbrina roncador, experienced tittle or no mortality. Survivorship of Seriphus politus was highly variable and no Anchoa delicatissima survived. (PDF file contains 22 pages.)