Tomorrow’s Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement

The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. The views expressed in this book are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed to CEPS or any other institution with which they are associated or to the European Union. This book, commissioned by the Foreign Trade Association, aims to provide an independent and in-depth contribution on the status of bilateral economic exchanges and persistent trade barriers between the European Union and China. A second objective is to encourage a frank and open dialogue, based on a scientific evaluation and without prejudice, of the possibility of a preferential trade agreement between the two sides. The study was carried out by CEPS, in cooperation with the World Trade Institute at the University of Bern.

Cape Verde - Diagnostic Trade Inttegration study Update - 2013

This Report is an update of the Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, titled Cape Verde’s Insertion into the Global Economy, produced and validated by the Government of Cape Verde in December 2008. Like the previous 2008 study, this Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update provides a critical examination of the major institutional and production constraints that hinder Cape Verde’s ability to capitalize fully on the growth and welfare gains from its integration into the world economy. As a policy report, this study offers a set of priority policies and measures that can be implemented by both the public and private sectors to mitigate and surmount these supply side and institutional constraints. These recommendations are summarized in an Action Matrix. The Report is fruit of the generous support of the multi-donor program the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF). In every crisis there is an opportunity. Four years after the validation of the country’s first Diagnostic Trade Integration Study in 2008, Cape Verde finds itself in a drastically altered external environment. Cape Verde faces a worsened external environment than four years ago, when it was also traversing years of crisis as global food and energy prices escalated. Just as the country was validating its first trade study in late 2008, and celebrating its graduation from the list of Least Developed Countries, the onset of the deepest global recession in recent memory triggered an even worse external situation as the country’s principal source of markets, investments, remittances and aid, the Eurozone, unraveled economically and politically. As the Eurozone crisis spread, it was Cape Verde’s misfortune that the crisis contaminated precisely its biggest Eurozone partners and donors, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. For such a highly dependent and exposed economy like that of Cape Verde, the deteriorating external sector has had a substantial negative impact on its macroeconomic performance. At the time of the validation workshop and graduation in 2008, no one could have foreseen or predicted the severity of the global crisis that followed. Despite traversing these years of adversity and external shocks, and suffering palpable setbacks, Cape Verde’s economy had proven surprisingly resilient, especially its principal sector, tourism. To its great credit, the country’s economic fundamentals are solid, and have been carefully and prudently managed over the years. For this reason alone, the country has thus far weathered the global and Eurozone crisis. Yet the near and medium term future remains uncertain. The country’s margin for maneuver has narrowed, its options far more limited, and hard choices lie ahead. Thus, there is no better time than now to analyze Cape Verde’s position in the global economy, and to examine the many challenges and opportunities it faces. The first diagnostic trade study outlined an ambitious agenda and set of policy strategies to enhance Cape Verde’s participation in the global economy. Written prior to the global crisis, the study did not, and could not, anticipate the scope and depth of the subsequent global and Eurozone crises. A few short months before the validation of the first DTIS Cape Verde joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has spent these four years adjusting to this status and implementing its commitments. At the same time, the country seeks greater economic integration with the European Union. Since 2008 the government has been investing heavily in the country’s economic infrastructure, focusing especially on fostering transformation in key sectors like agriculture, fisheries, tourism and creative industries. For these and many other reasons, it is both timely and urgent to review the road traveled since 2008. It is an opportune moment to reassess the country’s options, to rethink strategies, and to chart a new way forward that it is practical, implementable, and that builds on the country’s competitive advantages and current successes.

The global welfare impact of China: Trade integration and technological change

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model.We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in whichChina's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to theworld productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004),the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains whenChina's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors.This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Trade with China and strategy in South American recent economic development

Trade between South America and China has been an important source of the high growth shown by those economies in the 2000s. During the globalization of the 1990s, trade between the region and China had not developed so much. A rather sharp growth in China's presence in world trade since the beginning of the 2000s changed the world trade trends for MERCOSUR countries, or, at least, for many of them. The impact of the increasing trade of agrifood has been very relevant, and different per country. Strategy is another important issue, referring to bilateral relations with China. This country should be seen as a partner in the global trade, and not as a new foreign investor for the region, but this may be different in the context of different national strategies of South American countries.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

Re-Framing Trade

Given the substantial and increasing encroachment of trade agreements into almost every aspect of economic and social life, there is a pressing need for research that provides a more coherent framework for understanding the source and effectiveness of organised labour ’s power and capacity to influence international trade policy. Taking the union protests against the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) as a case study, this research uses core concepts derived from social movement theory to analyse the opportunities that existed for unions to influence these trade negotiations and their capacity to identify and take advantage of such opportunities. Importantly, it adds a power analysis designed to reveal the sources of power that unions draw on to take action. The research demonstrates that even where unions faced considerable constraints they were able to re-frame trade issues in a way that built broad support for their position and to utilise opportunities in the trade negotiation process to mobilise resistance against the GATS and further liberalisation of services. The theoretical framework developed for the research provides conceptual tools that can be developed for improving strategic campaign planning and for analytical assessment of past campaigns. The theoretical framework developed for this research has potential for further application as an analytical and strategic planning tool for unions.

Análisis prospectivo del mineral de cobre en el mundo, Latinoamérica y Colombia

Se presenta un análisis prospectivo del comportamiento de la oferta y la demanda del Mineral de Cobre en el Mundo, en Latinoamerica y en Colombia, creando diferentes escenarios con futuros posibles, consientes y detallados que servirán para entender la dinámica de mercado y la creación de estrategias de penetración, disminución de costos y aumento de productividad en compañías que operan tanto en países donde la industria del cobre se encuentra muy desarrollada, como en aquellos donde la explotación del mineral es todavía muy incipiente (Colombia).

Perfil logístico de Colombia una visión hacia el mejoramiento estratégico de las operaciones nacionales e internacionales; sector floricultor.

La floricultura en Colombia ha sido uno de los rubros más destacados dentro del sector agropecuario, silvicultura, caza y pesca, afirmación que se ve reflejada en la participación de la floricultura con un 7% dentro del sector agropecuario, el cual tuvo un crecimiento del 5,2% en lo correspondiente del 2012 al 2013 del PIB Nacional, según el informe anual que realizó el DANE en marzo del 2014. Es uno de los sectores comerciales más importantes y dinámicos de la economía colombiana. De ahí que, el propósito de este texto, es realizar un informe investigativo que genere conocimientos claros en temas referentes a la logística del sector floricultor, buscando determinar la mayor producción de ciertos tipos de flores mayor demandados, la clasificación de las mismas para el consumo interno y externo, las rutas, el tiempo, los costos, los flujos logísticos y demás factores relevantes para el análisis del perfil floricultor, con el fin de facilitar los procesos de producción, almacenamiento y distribución, que generen competitividad dentro de un marco global en el mismo.

Las estrategias de inserción internacional de los Gobiernos Regionales frente a los acuerdos de integración económica: estudio de caso Nuevo León – TLCAN 2003-2009

La internacionalización de los Gobiernos Locales o las regiones es un fenómeno que día a día está tomando una dimensión y magnitud mayor a nivel internacional. Han sido la globalización, la descentralización y la participación en acuerdos de integración económica los incentivos que impulsan a las regiones a buscar un status y un espacio de participación internacional en temas económicos, ambientales, culturales y de cooperación. En ese sentido la motivación de este Estudio de Caso es analizar el proceso a través del cual Nuevo León logró impulsar la internacionalización de su territorio en el periodo 2003-2009 a partir de la entrada en vigencia del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte.

Bilateral trade between New Zealand & the pacific alliance: perspectives and possibilities for further trade engagement

Due to the rapid and effective success of countries in the Pacific Rim for the last two decades, current world trade attention has been focussed on what appears to be the common vision of the ‘Pacific Century’. Reducing attention from the Atlantic and focusing it on the Pacific represents a new challenge for countries touching this ocean. The main Latin American economies bordering the pacific have taken upon this challenge with the creation of the Pacific Alliance in 2011. In this way, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru intend to penetrate and increase trade with the region by forming a coalition. The Pacific Alliance has attracted international attention, interest and support from nations around the world, counting 32 countries as observers; 7 are actually located in the region and six of them rank amongst the Top 15 world economies. As is expected, the possibility of closer trade engagement with big players such as China, India, Japan, South Korea or Australia absorb the main attention of media, governments and academics alike, leaving behind other feasible and possible opportunities unattended. That is precisely the case of New Zealand and its favourable commerce opportunities with the Pacific Alliance. The following document will study the major trends and variations in trade between New Zealand, the Pacific Alliance and its members between 2010 and 2014. Proving that mutual trade is most likely to keep on growing.

La política comercial de Estados Unidos en el marco de la Organización Mundial del Comercio. Discurso vs. comportamiento con relación a prácticas anticompetitivas

El objetivo principal de esta monografía es identificar cuáles son las razones que justifican las contradicciones entre el discurso y el comportamiento de Estados Unidos en el marco de la Organización Mundial del Comercio, particularmente con relación a prácticas anticompetitivas derivadas del programa de protección a la agricultura del país. Para ello se analizan el interés nacional y los elementos de la seguridad nacional a partir de los cuales éste se ha construido. También se evalúan los procesos de formulación de política comercial y las interacciones entre los representantes políticos, las asociaciones de productores y el sector privado para mostrar como este comportamiento contradictorio corresponde a la legitimización de un interés particular.

EU membership of the WTO: international trade disputes and judicial protection of individuals by EU Courts

The European Union (EU) is embedded in a pluralistic legal context because of the EU and its Member States’ treaty memberships and domestic laws. Where EU conduct has implications for both the EU’s international trade relations and the legal position of individual traders, it possibly affects EU and its Member States’ obligations under the law of the World Trade Organization (WTO law) as well as the Union’s own multi-layered constitutional legal order. The present paper analyses the way in which the European Court of Justice (ECJ) accommodates WTO and EU law in the context of international trade disputes triggered by the EU. Given the ECJ’s denial of direct effect of WTO law in principle, the paper focuses on the protection of rights and remedies conferred by EU law. It assesses the implications of the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) – which tolerates the acceptance of retaliatory measures constraining traders’ activities in sectors different from those subject to the original trade dispute (Bananas and Hormones cases) – for the protection of ‘retaliation victims’. The paper concludes that governmental discretion conferred by WTO law has not affected the applicability of EU constitutional law but possibly shapes the actual scope of EU rights and remedies where such discretion is exercised in the EU’s general interest.