The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

To determine if the ‘NIMBY’ phenomenon explains the slow progress of wind farm development or do institutional factors need to be taken in to consideration?

The threats posed by climate change are placing governments under increasing pressure to meet electricity demand from low carbon sources. Wind energy has been has been identified as one of the main technologies to help in meeting these demands. The public in general favour wind energy yet proposed targets for generation capacity lag behind proposed goals. The N IM B Y phenomenon has been suggested as one of the reasons why we are behind our wind generation capacity targets. It is a common mistake to take general support for granted and expect the public to support developments when confronted with them in their local area. In many cases it is not unheard of that governing bodies whether social, political, regulatory, environmental, or cultural can overrule general public support and halt developments. Motives to halt developments will vary depending on the institutional body involved. The problem with the term N IM B Y is that it is too basic a term to describe the broad spectrum of complex motives that various institutions including the public may have against a development. This research focuses on a case study where the developer had major problems with the local county council and its wind energy policies when he was erecting a wind turbine despite having gained planning permission. A survey questionnaire was also used as part o f the research to seek the perception a rural community had on wind energy. The research findings and results are discussed with respect to the literature review highlighting a general public support for wind energy and the influence institutional bodies have over the progress of developments.

Penetrating Wind

Combined media on paper. 96" x 40"

Using active learning for monitoring networks design: The example of wind power plants sites evaluation

Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

Density-dependent pollen limitation and reproductive assurance in a wind-pollinated herb with contrasting sexual systems

1. Wind pollination is thought to have evolved in response to selection for mechanisms to promote pollination success, when animal pollinators become scarce or unreliable. We might thus expect wind-pollinated plants to be less prone to pollen limitation than their insect-pollinated counterparts. Yet, if pollen loads on stigmas of wind-pollinated species decline with distance from pollen donors, seed set might nevertheless be pollen-limited in populations of plants that cannot self-fertilize their progeny, but not in self-compatible hermaphroditic populations.2. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing pollen limitation between dioecious and hermaphroditic (monoecious) populations of the wind-pollinated herb Mercurialis annua.3. In natural populations, seed set was pollen-limited in low-density patches of dioecious, but not hermaphroditic, M. annua, a finding consistent with patterns of distance-dependent seed set by females in an experimental array. Nevertheless, seed set was incomplete in both dioecious and hermaphroditic populations, even at high local densities. Further, both factors limited the seed set of females and hermaphrodites, after we manipulated pollen and resource availability in a common garden experiment.4. Synthesis. Our results are consistent with the idea that pollen limitation plays a role in the evolution of combined vs. separate sexes in M. annua. Taken together, they point to the potential importance of pollen transfer between flowers on the same plant (geitonogamy) by wind as a mechanism of reproductive assurance and to the dual roles played by pollen and resource availability in limiting seed set. Thus, seed set can be pollen-limited in sparse populations of a wind-pollinated species, where mates are rare or absent, having potentially important demographic and evolutionary implications.

Interpretation of wind components as compositional variables

The classical statistical study of the wind speed in the atmospheric surface layer is madegenerally from the analysis of the three habitual components that perform the wind data,that is, the component W-E, the component S-N and the vertical component,considering these components independent.When the goal of the study of these data is the Aeolian energy, so is when wind isstudied from an energetic point of view and the squares of wind components can beconsidered as compositional variables. To do so, each component has to be divided bythe module of the corresponding vector.In this work the theoretical analysis of the components of the wind as compositionaldata is presented and also the conclusions that can be obtained from the point of view ofthe practical applications as well as those that can be derived from the application ofthis technique in different conditions of weather

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Determination of sea surface salinity and wind speed by L-band microwave radiometry from a fixed platform

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture andOcean Salinity (SMOS) mission aims at obtaining global maps ofsoil moisture and sea surface salinity from space for large-scale andclimatic studies. It uses an L-band (1400–1427 MHz) MicrowaveInterferometric Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis to measurebrightness temperature of the earth’s surface at horizontal andvertical polarizations ( h and v). These two parameters will beused together to retrieve the geophysical parameters. The retrievalof salinity is a complex process that requires the knowledge ofother environmental information and an accurate processing ofthe radiometer measurements. Here, we present recent resultsobtained from several studies and field experiments that were partof the SMOS mission, and highlight the issues still to be solved.

Sexual dimorphism in androdioecious Mercurialis annua, a wind-pollinated herb

Gender-dimorphic species often display a degree of sexual dimorphism in terms of life-history traits, yet little is known about dimorphism in androdioecious plants. Here we investigate sexual dimorphism in an androdioecious population of the wind-pollinated herb Mercurialis annua by comparing the resource allocation strategies of males and hermaphrodites grown under different nutrient-availability and competitive regimes. We found that males displayed smaller aboveground vegetative sizes than did hermaphrodites, but neither soil nutrient availability nor competition had a strong independent effect on their relative sizes. Plants adjusted their relative reproductive investment in response to nutrient availability. Specifically, hermaphrodites increased their reproductive allocation when growing in poor soils, whereas males displayed the opposite response. Finally, hermaphrodites were strongly female biased in their sex allocation, and this was more pronounced in nutrient-poor soils. To conclude, sexual dimorphism in androdioecious M. annua shares many features with dioecious and gynodioecious species, particularly wind-pollinated herbs. However, the direction of sex-allocation reaction norms displayed by hermaphrodites of M. annua differs from that documented for several insect-pollinated gynodioecious species, hinting at the importance of either the pollination mode or the sexual system as a context of selection shaping the reproductive strategy of plants with both male and female functions.

Search for very high energy gamma-ray emission from pulsar-pulsar wind nebula systems with the MAGIC telescope

The MAGIC collaboration has searched for high-energy gamma-ray emission of some of the most promising pulsar candidates above an energy threshold of 50 GeV, an energy not reachable up to now by other ground-based instruments. Neither pulsed nor steady gamma-ray emission has been observed at energies of 100 GeV from the classical radio pulsars PSR J0205+6449 and PSR J2229+6114 (and their nebulae 3C58 and Boomerang, respectively) and the millisecond pulsar PSR J0218+4232. Here, we present the flux upper limits for these sources and discuss their implications in the context of current model predictions.

Exploring the connection between the stellar wind and the non-thermal emission in LS 5039

Context.LS 5039 has been observed with several X-ray instruments so far showing quite steady emission in the long term and no signatures of accretion disk. The source also presents X-ray variability at orbital timescales in flux and photon index. The system harbors an O-type main sequence star with moderate mass-loss. At present, the link between the X-rays and the stellar wind is unclear. Aims.We study the X-ray fluxes, spectra, and absorption properties of LS 5039 at apastron and periastron passages during an epoch of enhanced stellar mass-loss, and the long term evolution of the latter in connection with the X-ray fluxes. Methods.New XMM-Newton observations were performed around periastron and apastron passages in September 2005, when the stellar wind activity was apparently higher. April 2005 Chandra observations on LS 5039 were revisited. Moreover, a compilation of H EW data obtained since 1992, from which the stellar mass-loss evolution can be approximately inferred, was carried out. Results.XMM-Newton observations show higher and harder emission around apastron than around periastron. No signatures of thermal emission or a reflection iron line indicating the presence of an accretion disk are found in the spectrum, and the hydrogen column density () is compatible with being the same in both observations and consistent with the interstellar value. 2005 Chandra observations show a hard X-ray spectrum, and possibly high fluxes, although pileup effects preclude conclusive results from being obtained. The H EW shows yearly variations of 10%, and does not seem to be correlated with X-ray fluxes obtained at similar phases, unlike what is expected in the wind accretion scenario. Conclusions.2005 XMM-Newton and Chandra observations are consistent with 2003 RXTE/PCA results, namely moderate flux and spectral variability at different orbital phases. The constancy of the seems to imply that either the X-ray emitter is located at 1012 cm from the compact object, or the density in the system is 3 to 27 times smaller than that predicted by a spherical symmetric wind model. We suggest that the multiwavelength non-thermal emission of LS 5039 is related to the observed extended radio jets and is unlikely to be produced inside the binary system.

Wind Energy Where Wind and Innovation Work, 2010

Centrally located in America’s upper Midwest, Iowa lies in the heart of a 12-state region that will have installed an average of 2,701 mfi per year through 2014. In 2009 alone, this region, which is within one day delivery from Iowa, installed turbines valued at $7.8 billion! Once you understand how this exploding growth in the market intersects with the supply chain established by over 250 Iowa companies that are already providing components and services to wind energy manufacturers, you have an outstanding picture of exactly why all major wind manufacturing components are made in Iowa.