Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Individual, environmental, and meteorological predictors of daily personal ultraviolet radiation exposure measurements in a United States cohort study

Background Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements. Methods We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables. Results The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R2 = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R2 = 0.25). Conclusions In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

Effects of bovine colostrum supplementation on immune variables of highly-trained cyclists

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of low-dose bovine colostrum protein concentrate (CPC) supplementation on selected immune variables in cyclists. Twenty-nine highly trained male road cyclists completed an initial 40-km time trial (TT(40)) and were then randomly assigned to either a supplement (n = 14, 10 g bovine CPC/day) or placebo group (n = 15, 10 g whey protein concentrate/day). After 5 wk of supplementation, the cyclists completed a second TT(40). They then completed 5 consecutive days of high-intensity training (HIT) that included a TT(40), followed by a final TT(40) in the following week. Venous blood and saliva samples were collected immediately before and after each TT(40), and upper respiratory illness symptoms were recorded over the experimental period. Compared with the placebo group, bovine CPC supplementation significantly increased preexercise serum soluble TNF receptor 1 during the HIT period (bovine CPC = 882 +/- 233 pg/ml, placebo = 468 +/- 139 pg/ml; P = 0.039). Supplementation also suppressed the postexercise decrease in cytotoxic/suppressor T cells during the HIT period (bovine CPC = -1.0 +/- 2.7%, placebo = -9.2 +/- 2.8%; P = 0.017) and during the following week (bovine CPC = 1.4 +/- 2.9%, placebo = -8.2 +/- 2.8%; P = 0.004). Bovine CPC supplementation prevented a postexercise decrease in serum IgG(2) concentration at the end of the HIT period (bovine CPC = 4.8 +/- 6.8%, P = 0.88; placebo = -9.7 +/- 6.9%, P = 0.013). There was a trend toward reduced incidence of upper respiratory illness symptoms in the bovine CPC group (P = 0.055). In summary, low-dose bovine CPC supplementation modulates immune parameters during normal training and after an acute period of intense exercise, which may have contributed to the trend toward reduced upper respiratory illness in the bovine CPC group.

Non-contact ACL injuries : association with clegg soil impact test values for sports fields, soil moisture and prevailing weather

Introduction: There is a recognised relationship between dry weather conditions and increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Previous studies have identified 28 day evaporation as an important weather-based predictor of non-contact ACL injuries in professional Australian Football League matches. The mechanism of non-contact injury to the ACL is believed to increased traction and impact forces between footwear and playing surface. Ground hardness and the amount and quality of grass are factors that would most likely influence this and are inturn, related to the soil moisture content and prevailing weather conditions. This paper explores the relationship between soil moisture content, preceding weather conditions and the Clegg Soil Impact Test (CSIT) which is an internationally recognised standard measure of ground hardness for sports fields. Methodology: The 2.25 kg Clegg Soil Impact Test and a pair of 12 cm soil moisture probes were used to measure ground hardness and percentage moisture content. Five football fields were surveyed at 13 prescribed sites just before seven football matches from October 2008 to January 2009 (an FC Women’s WLeague team). Weather conditions recorded at the nearest weather station were obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology website and total rainfall less evaporation was calculated for 7 and 28 days prior to each match. All non-contact injuries occurring during match play and their location on the field were recorded. Results/conclusions: Ground hardness varied between CSIT 5 and 17 (x10G) (8 is considered a good value for sports fields). Variations within fields were typically greatest in the centre and goal areas. Soil moisture ranged from 3 to 40% with some fields requiring twice the moisture content of others to maintain similar CSIT values. There was a non-linear, negative relationship for ground hardness versus moisture content and a linear relationship with weather (R2, of 0.30 and 0.34, respectively). Three non-contact ACL injuries occurred during the season. Two of these were associated with hard and variable ground conditions.

Relationship of moderate and low isometric lumbar extension through architectural and muscular activity variables: a cross sectional study

Background No study relating the changes obtained in the architecture of erector spinae (ES) muscle were registered with ultrasound and different intensities of muscle contraction recorded by surface EMG (electromyography) on the ES muscle was found. The aim of this study was analyse the relationship in the response of the ES muscle during isometric moderate and light lumbar isometric extension considering architecture and functional muscle variables. Methods Cross-sectional study. 46 subjects (52% men) with a group mean age of 30.4 (±7.78). The participants developed isometric lumbar extension while performing moderate and low isometric trunk and hip extension in a sitting position with hips flexed 90 degrees and the lumbar spine in neutral position. During these measurements, electromyography recordings and ultrasound images were taken bilaterally. Bilaterally pennation angle, muscle thickness, torque and muscle activation were measured. This study was developed at the human movement analysis laboratory of the Health Science Faculty of the University of Malaga (Spain). Results Strong and moderate correlations were found at moderate and low intensities contraction between the variable of the same intensity, with correlation values ranging from 0.726 (Torque Moderate – EMG Left Moderate) to 0.923 (Angle Left Light – Angle Right Light) (p < 0.001). This correlation is observed between the variables that describe the same intensity of contraction, showing a poor correlation between variables of different intensities. Conclusion There is a strong relationship between architecture and function variables of ES muscle when describe an isometric lumbar extension at light or moderate intensity. Keywords: Ultrasonography; Surface electromyography; Thickness; Pennation angle; Erector spinae

The effects of hot and cold temperatures on emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia

As Earth's climate is rapidly changing, the impact of ambient temperature on health outcomes has attracted increasing attention in the recent time. Considerable number of excess deaths has been reported because of exposure to ambient hot and cold temperatures. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the relation between temperature and morbidity. The aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between both hot and cold temperatures and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia, and to examine whether the relation varied by age and socioeconomic factors. It aimed to explore lag structures of temperature–morbidity association for respiratory causes, and to estimate the magnitude of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases attributable to hot and cold temperatures for the large contribution of both diseases to the total emergency hospital admissions. A time series study design was applied using routinely collected data of daily emergency hospital admissions, weather and air pollution variables in Brisbane during 1996–2005. Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear structure was adopted to assess the impact of temperature on emergency hospital admissions after adjustment for confounding factors. Both hot and cold effects were found, with higher risk of hot temperatures than that of cold temperatures. Increases in mean temperature above 24.2oC were associated with increased morbidity, especially for the elderly ≥ 75 years old with the largest effect. The magnitude of the risk estimates of hot temperature varied by age and socioeconomic factors. High population density, low household income, and unemployment appeared to modify the temperature–morbidity relation. There were different lag structures for hot and cold temperatures, with the acute hot effect within 3 days after hot exposure and about 2-week lagged cold effect on respiratory diseases. A strong harvesting effect after 3 days was evident for respiratory diseases. People suffering from cardiovascular diseases were found to be more vulnerable to hot temperatures than cold temperatures. However, more patients admitted for cardiovascular diseases were attributable to cold temperatures in Brisbane compared with hot temperatures. This study contributes to the knowledge base about the association between temperature and morbidity. It is vitally important in the context of ongoing climate change. The findings of this study may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policy and strategic initiatives designed to reduce and prevent the burden of disease due to the impact of climate change.

Effect of recovery modality on 4-hour repeated treadmill running performance and changes in physiological variables

The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of three different recovery modalities - active (ACT), passive (PAS) and contrast temperature water immersion (CTW) - on the performance of repeated treadmill running, lactate concentration and pH. Fourteen males performed two pairs of treadmill runs to exhaustion at 120% and 90% of peak running speed (PRS) over a 4-hour period. ACT, PAS or CTW was performed for 15-min after the first pair of treadmill runs. ACT consisted of running at 40% PRS, PAS consisted of standing stationary and CTW consisted of alternating between 60-s cold (10°C) and 120-s hot (42°C) water immersion. Run times were converted to time to cover set distance using critical power. Type of recovery modality did not have a significant effect on change in time to cover 400 m (Mean±SD; ACT 2.7±3.6 s, PAS 2.9±4.2 s, CTW 4.2±6.9 s), 1000 m (ACT 2.2±4.0 s, PAS 4.8±8.6 s, CTW 2.1±7.2 s) or 5000 m (ACT 1.4±29.0 s, PAS 16.7±58.5 s, CTW 11.7±33.0 s). Post exercise blood lactate concentration was lower in ACT and CTW compared with PAS. Participants reported an increased perception of recovery in the CTW compared with ACT and PAS. Blood pH was not significantly influenced by recovery modality. Data suggest both ACT and CTW reduce lactate accumulation after high intensity running, but high intensity treadmill running performance is returned to baseline 4-hours after the initial exercise bout regardless of the recovery strategy employed.

Diffusion of extreme weather-proofing technology in the built environment

This study addresses the research question: ‘What are the diffusion determinants for extreme weather-proofing technology in the Australian built environment?’ In order to effectively identify diffusion determinants, a synthesis of literature in both technical and management fields was conducted from a system-wide perspective. Review results where then interpreted through an innovation system framework, drawn from innovation systems literature, in order to map the current state of extreme weather-proofing technology diffusion in the Australian built environment industry. Drivers and obstacles to optimal diffusion are presented. Results show the important role to be played by Australian governments in facilitating improved weather proofing technology diffusion. This applies to governments in their various roles, but particularly as regulators, clients/owners and investors in research & development and education. In the role as regulators, findings suggest Australian governments should be encouraging the application of innovative finance options and positive end-user incentives to promote the uptake of weather proofing technology. Additionally, in their role as clients/owners, diffusion can be improved by adjusting building and infrastructure specifications to encourage designers and constructors to incorporate extreme weather proofing technology in new and redeveloped built assets. Finally, results suggest greater investment is required in research and development and improved knowledge sharing across the construction supply chain to further mitigate risks associated with greater incidences of extreme weather events.

The ECOS Project. An interactive simulation to promote an ECO-friendly universe.

Custom designed for display on the Cube Installation situated in the new Science and Engineering Centre (SEC) at QUT, the ECOS project is a playful interface that uses real-time weather data to simulate how a five-star energy building operates in climates all over the world. In collaboration with the SEC building managers, the ECOS Project incorporates energy consumption and generation data of the building into an interactive simulation, which is both engaging to users and highly informative, and which invites play and reflection on the roles of green buildings. ECOS focuses on the principle that humans can have both a positive and negative impact on ecosystems with both local and global consequence. The ECOS project draws on the practice of Eco-Visualisation, a term used to encapsulate the important merging of environmental data visualization with the philosophy of sustainability. Holmes (2007) uses the term Eco-Visualisation (EV) to refer to data visualisations that ‘display the real time consumption statistics of key environmental resources for the goal of promoting ecological literacy’. EVs are commonly artifacts of interaction design, information design, interface design and industrial design, but are informed by various intellectual disciplines that have shared interests in sustainability. As a result of surveying a number of projects, Pierce, Odom and Blevis (2008) outline strategies for designing and evaluating effective EVs, including ‘connecting behavior to material impacts of consumption, encouraging playful engagement and exploration with energy, raising public awareness and facilitating discussion, and stimulating critical reflection.’ Consequently, Froehlich (2010) and his colleagues also use the term ‘Eco-feedback technology’ to describe the same field. ‘Green IT’ is another variation which Tomlinson (2010) describes as a ‘field at the juncture of two trends… the growing concern over environmental issues’ and ‘the use of digital tools and techniques for manipulating information.’ The ECOS Project team is guided by these principles, but more importantly, propose an example for how these principles may be achieved. The ECOS Project presents a simplified interface to the very complex domain of thermodynamic and climate modeling. From a mathematical perspective, the simulation can be divided into two models, which interact and compete for balance – the comfort of ECOS’ virtual denizens and the ecological and environmental health of the virtual world. The comfort model is based on the study of psychometrics, and specifically those relating to human comfort. This provides baseline micro-climatic values for what constitutes a comfortable working environment within the QUT SEC buildings. The difference between the ambient outside temperature (as determined by polling the Google Weather API for live weather data) and the internal thermostat of the building (as set by the user) allows us to estimate the energy required to either heat or cool the building. Once the energy requirements can be ascertained, this is then balanced with the ability of the building to produce enough power from green energy sources (solar, wind and gas) to cover its energy requirements. Calculating the relative amount of energy produced by wind and solar can be done by, in the case of solar for example, considering the size of panel and the amount of solar radiation it is receiving at any given time, which in turn can be estimated based on the temperature and conditions returned by the live weather API. Some of these variables can be altered by the user, allowing them to attempt to optimize the health of the building. The variables that can be changed are the budget allocated to green energy sources such as the Solar Panels, Wind Generator and the Air conditioning to control the internal building temperature. These variables influence the energy input and output variables, modeled on the real energy usage statistics drawn from the SEC data provided by the building managers.

EGFR expression : associations with outcome and clinicopathological variables in malignant pleural mesothelioma

Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a fatal tumour of increasing incidence which is related to asbestos exposure. This work evaluated expression in MM of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) by immunohistochemistry in 168 tumour sections and its correlations with clinicopathological and biological factors. The microvessel density (MVD) was derived from CD34 immunostained sections. Hematoxylin and eosin stained sections were examined for intratumoural necrosis. COX-2 protein expression was evaluated with semi-quantitative Western blotting of homogenised tumour supernatants (n = 45). EGFR expression was correlated with survival by Kaplan-Meier and log rank analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the effects of EGFR with clinicopathological and biological prognostic factors and prognostic scoring systems. EGFR expression was identified in 74 cases (44%) and correlated with epithelioid cell type (p < 0.0001), good performance status (p < 0.0001), the absence of chest pain (p < 0.0001) and the presence of TN (p = 0.004), but not MVD or COX-2. EGFR expression was a good prognostic factor in univariate analysis (p = 0.01). Independent indicators of poor prognosis in multivariate analysis were non-epithelioid cell type (p = 0.0001), weight loss, performance status and WBC > 8.3 × 10 9 L -1. EGFR status was not an independent prognostic factor. EGFR expression in MM correlates with epithelioid histology and TN. EGFR may be a target for selective therapies in MM. © 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential pathologic variables and outcomes across the spectrum of adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction

Background Adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) as described by Siewert et al. is classified as one entity in the latest (7th Edition) American Joint Cancer Committee/International Union Against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) manual, compared with the previous mix of esophageal and gastric staging systems. The origin of AEG tumors, esophageal or gastric, and their biology remain controversial, particularly for AEG type II (cardia) tumors. Methods We adapted a large prospective database (n = 520: 180 type I, 182 type II, 158 type III) to compare AEG tumors under the new TNM system Pathological variables associated with prognosis were compared (pT, pN, stage, differentiation, R status, lymphovascular invasion, perineural involvement, number of positive nodes, percent of positive nodes, and tumor length), as well as overall survival. Results Compared with AEG type I tumors, type II and type III tumors had significantly (p\0.05) more advanced pN stages, greater number and percentage of positive nodes, poorer differentiation, more radial margin involvement, and more perineural invasion. In AEG type I, 14/180 patients (8%) had[6 involved nodes (pN3), compared with 16 and 30% of patients classified type II and III, respectively. Median survival was significantly (p = 0.03) improved for type I patients (38 months) compared with those with tumors classified as type II (28 months) and type III (24 months). In multivariate analysis node positivity and pN staging but not AEG site had an impact on survival. Conclusions In this series AEG type I is associated with more favorable pathologic features and improved outcomes compared with AEG type II and III. This may reflect earlier diagnosis, but an alternative possibility, that type I may be a unique paradigm with more favorable biology, requires further study. © Société Internationale de Chirurgie 2010.

Tumour necrosis is an independent prognostic marker in non-small cell lung cancer : correlation with biological variables

Background Tumour necrosis (TN) is recognized to be a consequence of chronic cellular hypoxia. TN and hypoxia correlate with poor prognosis in solid tumours. Methods In a retrospective study the prognostic implications of the extent of TN was evaluated in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and correlated with clinicopathological variables and expression of epidermal growth factor receptor, Bcl-2, p53 and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9). Tissue specimens from 178 surgically resected cases of stage I-IIIA NSCLC with curative intent were studied. The specimens were routinely processed, formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded. TN was graded as extensive or either limited or absent by two independent observers; disagreements were resolved using a double-headed microscope. The degree of reproducibility was estimated by re-interpreting 40 randomly selected cases after a 4 month interval. Results Reproducibility was attained in 36/40 cases, Kappa score=0.8 P<0.001. TN correlated with T-stage (P=0.001), platelet count (P=0.004) and p53 expression (P=0.031). Near significant associations of TN with N-stage (P=0.063) and MMP-9 expression (P=0.058) were seen. No association was found with angiogenesis (P=0.98). On univariate (P=0.0016) and multivariate analysis (P=0.023) TN was prognostic. Conclusion These results indicate that extensive TN reflects an aggressive tumour phenotype in NSCLC and may improve the predictive power of the TMN staging system. The lack of association between TN and angiogenesis may be important although these variables were not evaluated on serial sections. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Effects of cold weather on durability of CFRP strengthened circular hollow steel members

Tubular members have become progressively more popular due to excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, a large number of such structures are found structurally deficient due to reduction of strength when they expose to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural members are in high demands. In recent times Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites appears to be an excellent solution to enhance the load carrying capacity and serviceability of steel structures because of its superior physical and mechanical properties. However, the durability of such strengthening system under cold environmental condition has not yet been well documented to guide the engineers. This paper presents the findings of a study conducted to enhance the bond durability of CFRP strengthened steel tubular members by treating steel surface using epoxy based adhesion promoter under cold weather subjected to bending. The experimental program consisted of six number of CFRP strengthened specimens and one bare specimen. The sand blasted surface of the three specimens to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature and cold weather (3oC) for three and six months period of time. The beams were then loaded to failure under four point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure mode, failure load and mid-span deflection. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP strengthened structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in elastic range.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.