Performance evaluation of elitist-mutated multi-objective particle swarm optimization for integrated water resources management

Optimal allocation of water resources for various stakeholders often involves considerable complexity with several conflicting goals, which often leads to multi-objective optimization. In aid of effective decision-making to the water managers, apart from developing effective multi-objective mathematical models, there is a greater necessity of providing efficient Pareto optimal solutions to the real world problems. This study proposes a swarm-intelligence-based multi-objective technique, namely the elitist-mutated multi-objective particle swarm optimization technique (EM-MOPSO), for arriving at efficient Pareto optimal solutions to the multi-objective water resource management problems. The EM-MOPSO technique is applied to a case study of the multi-objective reservoir operation problem. The model performance is evaluated by comparing with results of a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) model, and it is found that the EM-MOPSO method results in better performance. The developed method can be used as an effective aid for multi-objective decision-making in integrated water resource management.

Optimal Reservoir Operation for Flood Control Using Folded Dynamic Programming

Folded Dynamic Programming (FDP) is adopted for developing optimalnreservoir operation policies for flood control. It is applied to a case study of Hirakud Reservoir in Mahanadi basin, India with the objective of deriving optimal policy for flood control. The river flows down to Naraj, the head of delta where a major city is located and finally joins the Bay of Bengal. As Hirakud reservoir is on the upstream side of delta area in the basin, it plays an important role in alleviating the severity of the flood for this area. Data of 68 floods such as peaks of inflow hydrograph, peak of outflow from reservoir during each flood, peak of flow hydrograph at Naraj and d/s catchment contribution are utilized. The combinations of 51, 54, 57 thousand cumecs as peak inflow into reservoir and 25.5, 20, 14 thousand cumecs respectively as,peak d/s catchment contribution form the critical combinations for flood situation. It is observed that the combination of 57 thousand cumecs of inflow into reservoir and 14 thousand cumecs for d/s catchment contribution is the most critical among the critical combinations of flow series. The method proposed can be extended to similar situations for deriving reservoir operating policies for flood control.

Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible futurescenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India,which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phytoplankton succession from 1968 to 1990 in the subarctic Lokka reservoir

Tiivistelmä: Kasviplanktonin kehitys vuosina 1968-1990 subarktisessa Lokan tekoaltaassa

Optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a genetic algorithm (GA) model for obtaining an optimal operating policy and optimal crop water allocations from an irrigation reservoir. The objective is to maximize the sum of the relative yields from all crops in the irrigated area. The model takes into account reservoir inflow, rainfall on the irrigated area, intraseasonal competition for water among multiple crops, the soil moisture dynamics in each cropped area, the heterogeneous nature of soils. and crop response to the level of irrigation applied. The model is applied to the Malaprabha single-purpose irrigation reservoir in Karnataka State, India. The optimal operating policy obtained using the GA is similar to that obtained by linear programming. This model can be used for optimal utilization of the available water resources of any reservoir system to obtain maximum benefits.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Influence of Osmotic Suction on the Soil-Water Characteristic Curves of Compacted Expansive Clay

Unsaturated clays are subject to osmotic suction gradients in geoenvironmental engineering applications and it therefore becomes important to understand the effect of these chemical concentration gradients on soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs). This paper brings out the influence of induced osmotic suction gradient on the wetting SWCCs of compacted clay specimens inundated with sodium chloride solutions/distilled water at vertical stress of 6.25 kPa in oedometer cells. The experimental results illustrate that variations in initial osmotic suction difference induce different magnitudes of osmotic induced consolidation and osmotic consolidation strains thereby impacting the wetting SWCCs and equilibrium water contents of identically compacted clay specimens. Osmotic suction induced by chemical concentration gradients between reservoir salt solution and soil-water can be treated as an equivalent net stress component, (p(pi)) that decreases the swelling strains of unsaturated specimens from reduction in microstructural and macrostructural swelling components. The direction of osmotic flow affects the matric SWCCs. Unsaturated specimens experiencing osmotic induced consolidation and osmotic consolidation develop lower equilibrium water content than specimens experiencing osmotic swelling during the wetting path. The findings of the study illustrate the need to incorporate the influence of osmotic suction in determination of the matric SWCCs.

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integrated model is developed, based on seasonal inputs of reservoir inflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocations to multiple crops. The model is conceptually made up of two modules, Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yields of all crops, for a given state of the system, using linear programming (LP). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growth with time. Module 2 is a seasonal allocation model to derive the steady state reservoir operating policy using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year. The results of module 1 and the transition probabilities of seasonal inflow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonal inputs coupled with the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study, while affecting additional improvements. The model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Swam Intelligent Based Inverse Model for Laboratory Double Reservoir Diffusion Experiments

Theoretical approaches are of fundamental importance to predict the potential impact of waste disposal facilities on ground water contamination. Appropriate design parameters are, in general, estimated by fitting the theoretical models to a field monitoring or laboratory experimental data. Double-reservoir diffusion (Transient Through-Diffusion) experiments are generally conducted in the laboratory to estimate the mass transport parameters of the proposed barrier material. These design parameters are estimated by manual parameter adjusting techniques (also called eye-fitting) like Pollute. In this work an automated inverse model is developed to estimate the mass transport parameters from transient through-diffusion experimental data. The proposed inverse model uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm which is based on the social behaviour of animals for finding their food sources. Finite difference numerical solution of the transient through-diffusion mathematical model is integrated with the PSO algorithm to solve the inverse problem of parameter estimation.The working principle of the new solver is demonstrated by estimating mass transport parameters from the published transient through-diffusion experimental data. The estimated values are compared with the values obtained by existing procedure. The present technique is robust and efficient. The mass transport parameters are obtained with a very good precision in less time

Integrated Reservoir Operation Modeling for Irrigation Systems - A Multi-Objective Approach

An integrated reservoir operation model is presented for developing effective operational policies for irrigation water management. In arid and semi-arid climates, owing to dynamic changes in the hydroclimatic conditions within a season, the fixed cropping pattern with conventional operating policies, may have considerable impact on the performance of the irrigation system and may affect the economics of the farming community. For optimal allocation of irrigation water in a season, development of effective mathematical models may guide the water managers in proper decision making and consequently help in reducing the adverse effects of water shortage and crop failure problems. This paper presents a multi-objective integrated reservoir operation model for multi-crop irrigation system. To solve the multi-objective model, a recent swarm intelligence technique, namely elitist-mutated multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (EM-MOPSO) has been used and applied to a case study in India. The method evolves effective strategies for irrigation crop planning and operation policies for a reservoir system, and thereby helps farming community in improving crop benefits and water resource usage in the reservoir command area.

Ecological Assessment of Lentic Water Bodies of Bangalore

The restoration, conservation and management of water resources require a thorough understanding of what constitutes a healthy ecosystem. Monitoring and assessment provides the basic information on the condition of our waterbodies. The present work details the study carried out at two waterbodies, namely, the Chamarajasagar reservoir and the Madiwala Lake. The waterbodies were selected on the basis of their current use and locations. Chamarajasagar reservoir serves the purpose of supplying drinking water to Bangalore city and is located on the outskirts of the city surrounded by agricultural and forest land. On the other hand, Madiwala lake is situated in the heart of Bangalore city receiving an influx of pollutants from domestic and industrial sewage. Comparative assessment of the surface water quality of both were carried out by instituting the various physico–chemical and biological parameters. The physico-chemical analyses included temperature, transparency, pH, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, total hardness, calcium hardness, magnesium hardness, nitrates, phosphates, sodium, potassium and COD measurements of the given waterbody. The analysis was done based on the standard methods prescribed (or recommended) by (APHA) and NEERI. The biological parameter included phytoplankton analysis. The detailed investigations of the parameters, which are well within the tolerance limits in Chamarajasagar reservoir, indicate that it is fairly unpolluted, except for the pH values, which indicate greater alkalinity. This may be attributed to the natural causes and the agricultural runoff from the catchment. On the contrary, the limnology of Madiwala lake is greatly influenced by the inflow of sewage that contributes significantly to the dissolved solids of the lake water, total hardness, alkalinity and a low DO level. Although, the two study areas differ in age, physiography, chemistry and type of inflows, they still maintain a phytoplankton distribution overwhelmingly dominated by Cyanophyceae members,specifically Microcystis aeruginosa. These blue green algae apparently enter the waterbodies from soil, which are known to harbour a rich diversity of blue green flora with several species common to limnoplankton, a feature reported to be unique to the south Indian lakes.Chamarajasagar water samples revealed five classes of phytoplankton, of which Cyanophyceae (92.15 percent) that dominated other algal forms comprised of one single species of Microcystis aeruginosa. The next major class of algae was Chlorophyceae (3.752 percent) followed by Dinophyceae (3.51 percent), Bacillariophyceae (0.47 percent) and a sparsely available and unidentified class (0.12 percent).Madiwala Lake phytoplankton, in addition to Cyanophyceae (26.20 percent), revealed a high density of Chlorophyceae members (73.44 percent) dominated by Scenedesmus sp.,Pediastrum sp., and Euglena sp.,which are considered to be indicators of organic pollution. The domestic and industrial sewage, which finds its way into the lake, is a factor causing organic pollution. As compared to the other classes, Euglenophyceae and Bacillariophyceae members were the lowest in number. Thus, the analysis of various parameters indicates that Chamarajasagar reservoir is relatively unpolluted except for the high percentage of Microcystis aeruginosa, and a slightly alkaline nature of water. Madiwala lake samples revealed eutrophication and high levels of pollution, which is clarified by the physico–chemical analysis, whose values are way above the tolerance limits. Also, the phytoplankton analysis in Madiwala lake reveals the dominance of Chlorophyceae members, which indicate organic pollution (sewage being the causative factor).

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integratedm odel is developed,b asedo n seasonailn puts of reservoiri nflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocationst o multiple crops.T he model is conceptuallym ade up of two modules. Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yieldso f all crops,f or a givens tateo f the systemu, singl inear programming(L P). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growthw ith time. Module 2 is a seasonaal llocationm odel to derive the steadys tate reservoiro peratingp olicyu sings tochastidc ynamicp rogramming(S DP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year.The resultso f module 1 and the transitionp robabilitieso f seasonailn flow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonailn puts coupledw ith the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study,w hile affectinga dditionali mprovementsT. he model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Reservoir Operation with Fuzzy State Variables for Irrigation of Multiple Crops

This paper presents the development and application of a stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops. A fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (FSDP) model is developed in which the reservoir storage and soil moisture of the crops are considered as fuzzy numbers, and the reservoir inflow is considered as a stochastic variable. The model is formulated with an objective of minimizing crop yield deficits, resulting in optimal water allocations to the crops by maintaining storage continuity and soil moisture balance. The standard fuzzy arithmetic method is used to solve all arithmetic equations with fuzzy numbers, and the fuzzy ranking method is used to compare two or more fuzzy numbers. The reservoir operation model is integrated with a daily-based water allocation model, which results in daily temporal variations of allocated water, soil moisture, and crop deficits. A case study of an existing Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka, India, is chosen for the model application. The FSDP is a more realistic model because it considers the uncertainty in discretization of state variables. The results obtained using the FSDP model are found to be more acceptable for the case study than those of the classical stochastic dynamic model and the standard operating model, in terms of 10-day releases from the reservoir and evapotranspiration deficit. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.