Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management. A case study in the middle Guadiana basin, Spain.

The objective of this research was the implementation of a participatory process for the development of a tool to support decision making in water management. The process carried out aims at attaining an improved understanding of the water system and an encouragement of the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders to build a shared vision of the system. In addition, the process intends to identify impacts of possible solutions to given problems, which will help to take decisions.

The Extended Water Footprint and illegal groundwater use in the Upper Guadiana Basin (Spain)

Tablas de Daimiel National Park is located in the Upper Guadiana Basin and represents one of the largest and most important wetlands in Europe. The long term ecological integrity of this wetland is inherently associated with the maintenance of a shallow groundwater table, namely the Western Mancha aquifer (WMA) or Aquifer 23. The intensive use of groundwater, mainly for irrigation, has led over the last decades to deep socio‐economic changes. Such intensive use has also lowered the water table of Aquifer 23, drastically reducing the flooded area of the wetland and threatening its ecological integrity. A number of plans and measures have been developed and implemented since the declaration of overexploitation of Aquifer 23 in the year 1987. The most recent one is the Special Plan for the Upper Guadiana (SPUG), approved in 2008. This Plan is the main measure to comply with achieving the objective of good quantitative and qualitative status required under the Water Framework Directive (2000). This paper offers a new type of integrated analysis which allows assessing under a common lens the physical, economic and social dimensions of groundwater use in the area. The first objective is to calculate the groundwater footprint of agricultural production in the Upper Guadiana basin and its evolution during 2000‐2008. For this purpose, we have applied the Extended Water Footprint (EWF) methodology ‐a novel approach based on the classical Water Footprint (WF) approach‐ that includes an assessment of the water productivity from an economic and social perspective. Compared to the classical WF, the EWF allows for a more complete overview of the sector, providing new insights for policy decisions (e.g. to define options and possibilities on water re‐allocation in order to achieve both better ecosystem conservation and social equity). The second objective is to use the EWF to compare the existing authorized and non‐authorized or illegal use of water. This allows us to discuss current initiatives by public authorities in relation to the existing frame of water rights

Analyzing adaptation to climate change in the water and the agricultural sectors in the Spanish Guadiana basin.

1. Introduction: setting and problem definition 2. The Adaptation Pathway –2.1 Stage 1: appraising risks and opportunities •Step 1: Impact analysis •Step 2: Policy analysis •Step 3: Socio-institutional analysis –2.2 Stage 2: appraising and choosing adaptation opt ions •Step 4: identifying and prioritizing adaptation o ptions 3. Conclusions

The water footprint of a river basin with a special focus on groundwater: The case of Guadalquivir basin (Spain).

In addition to revealing the hidden link between products or consumption patterns of populations and their needs in terms of water resources, the water footprint (WF) indicator generates new debates and solutions on water management at basin scale. This paper analyses the green and blue WF of the Guadalquivir basin and its integration with environmental water consumption, with a special emphasis on the WF from groundwater and its consequences on current and future depletion of surface water. In a normal year, green WF (agriculture and pastures) amounts to 190 mm on a total green water consumption of 410 mm, while the blue WF (50 mm) represents half of the total blue water flows. This constitutes a first overview and alternative interpretations of the WF as human water appropriation are introduced. The blue WF is almost entirely associated to agriculture (40 mm). The presentation of its evolution over the period 1997?2008 reveals the rising WF from groundwater (13 mm in 2008), 86% being current consumption of surface flows. This evolution is particularly ascribed to the recent development of irrigated olive groves from groundwater. To prevent a higher pressure on the environment, this new use, like all others (thermo-solar plants, tourism, etc.), could have been obtained from the reallocation of water from crops with low water productivity. It means that water is not lacking in the Guadalquivir basin if the governance setting integrates more flexibility and equity in the allocation of water to address climatic variability and the emergence of new demands.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain.

A participatory modelling process has been conducted in two areas of the Guadiana river (the upper and the middle sub-basins), in Spain, with the aim of providing support for decision making in the water management field. The area has a semi-arid climate where irrigated agriculture plays a key role in the economic development of the region and accounts for around 90% of water use. Following the guidelines of the European Water Framework Directive, we promote stakeholder involvement in water management with the aim to achieve an improved understanding of the water system and to encourage the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders in order to help building a shared vision of the system. At the same time, the resulting models, which integrate the different sectors and views, provide some insight of the impacts that different management options and possible future scenarios could have. The methodology is based on a Bayesian network combined with an economic model and, in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, with a crop model. The resulting integrated modelling framework is used to simulate possible water policy, market and climate scenarios to find out the impacts of those scenarios on farm income and on the environment. At the end of the modelling process, an evaluation questionnaire was filled by participants in both sub-basins. Results show that this type of processes are found very helpful by stakeholders to improve the system understanding, to understand each others views and to reduce conflict when it exists. In addition, they found the model an extremely useful tool to support management. The graphical interface, the quantitative output and the explicit representation of uncertainty helped stakeholders to better understand the implications of the scenario tested. Finally, the combination of different types of models was also found very useful, as it allowed exploring in detail specific aspects of the water management problems.

Option contracts for allocating water in inter-basin transfers: the case of the Tagus-Segura Basin in Spain

Users in the Mediterranean region face significant water supply risks. Water markets mechanisms can provide flexibility to water systems run in tight situations. The largest water infrastructure in the Iberian Peninsula connects the Segura and Tagus Basins. Stakeholders and politicians in the Tagus Basin have asked that water transfers between the two basins be eventually phased out. The need to increase the statutory minimum environmental flow in the middle Tagus and to meet new urban demands is going to result in a redefinition of the Transfer?s management rules, leading to a reduction in the transferable volumes. To minimise the consequences of such restrictions to irrigators in the Segura Basin who depend on the transferred volumes, we propose the establishment of water option contracts between both basins that represents an institutional innovation with respect to previous inter-basin spot market experiences. Based on the draft of the new Tagus Basin Plan, we propose both a modification of the Transfer?s management rule and an innovative inter-basin option contract. The main goal of the paper is to define this contract and evaluate it with respect to non-market scenarios. We also assess the resulting impact on environmental flows in the Tagus River and water availability for users in the Segura Basin, together with the economic impacts of such contract on both basins. Our results show that the proposed option contract would reduce the impact of a change in the transfer?s management rule, and reduce the supply risks of the recipient area.

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Sustainability in the Upper Colorado River Basin: A Struggle Between Water Resource Use and Remnants of the Natural Ecosystem

This study evaluated whether development of the Colorado River system has exceeded sustainability by comparing the trends in water use in the Colorado River. Two sustainable areas were identified in the upper basin and one in the lower-- the mainstream Colorado River, Green and Yampa rivers, and the Little Colorado River. These areas are also high priority recovery areas for four endangered fishes and protected by critical habitat provisions of the ESA. Unfortunately, the endangered fishes are declining because of habitat destruction and non-native species. If increasing water demand causes the fishes to go extinct the few sustainable areas will be lost. It will take careful management of the endangered fishes and water users to ensure these areas are maintained.

Catchment characteristics and soil and water chemistry of the San Francisco basin and subbasins, Ecuador

In this study, the Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis methods are combined to unravel the runoff generation process of the San Francisco River basin (73.5 km**2) situated on the Amazonian side of the Cordillera Real in the southernmost Andes of Ecuador. The montane basin is covered with cloud forest, sub-páramo, pasture and ferns. Nested sampling was applied for the collection of streamwater samples and discharge measurements in the main tributaries and outlet of the basin, and for the collection of soil and rock water samples. Weekly to biweekly water grab samples were taken at all stations in the period April 2007-November 2008. Hydrometric data, Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis allowed preliminary evaluation of the processes controlling the runoff in the San Francisco River basin. Results suggest that flow during dry conditions mainly consists of lateral flow through the C-horizon and cracks in the top weathered bedrock layer, and that all subcatchments have an important contribution of this deep water to runoff, no matter whether pristine or deforested. During normal to low precipitation intensities, when antecedent soil moisture conditions favour water infiltration, vertical flow paths to deeper soil horizons with subsequent lateral subsurface flow contribute most to streamflow. Under wet conditions in forested catchments, streamflow is controlled by near surface lateral flow through the organic horizon. Exceptionally, saturation excess overland flow occurs. By absence of the litter layer in pasture, streamflow under wet conditions originates from the A horizon, and overland flow.