Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Renewable Power Sources

Of all of the sources of renewable energies available one can argue that the most abundant and accessible are solar power, radiation, and the energy of the tides (70 % of the earth surface is covered by water). The tidal wave energy hasn’t seen a widespread distribution yet, mainly due to the lack of interest of the governments, most of the coastal areas of the world are exclusive responsibility of the governments, thus not easily open for private venture. Considering solar power, there exist two main fields of application, land based systems and space based systems. The former systems are still in a very embryonic phase, with Japan being the lead researcher in the field, with an experimental satellite-power station to be launched before 2010. Land based systems, on the other hand, are well studied, with major research and application programs in all known forms of solar power production. Given a minimum value of incident radiation, and applying the appropriate system, (i.e. power plant type), for any given area the solar power becomes an income-producing industry.

Influence of the use of recycled concrete aggregates from different sources on structural concrete

This paper intends to evaluate the capacity of producing concrete with a pre-established performance (in terms of mechanical strength) incorporating recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) from different sources. To this purpose, rejected products from the precasting industry and concrete produced in laboratory were used. The appraisal of the self-replication capacity was made for three strength ranges: 15-25 MPa, 35-45 MPa and 65-75 MPa. The mixes produced tried to replicate the strength of the source concrete (SC) of the RA. Only total, (100%) replacement of coarse natural aggregates (CNA) by coarse recycled concrete aggregates (CRCA) was tested. The results show that, both in mechanical and durability terms, there were no significant differences between aggregates from controlled sources and those from precast rejects for the highest levels of the target strength. Furthermore, the performance losses resulting from the RA's incorporation are substantially reduced when used medium or high strength SC's. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Matching CO2 large point sources and potential geological storage sites in mainland Portugal

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Seismic vulnerability: From building evaluation to a typology generalization

Outlining the best strategies for seismic risk mitigation requires that both benefits and costs of retrofitting are known in advance. The assessment of the vulnerability of building typologies is a first step of a more extensive effort, concerning the analysis of the viability of seismic risk mitigation and taking into account retrofitting costs. The methodology adopted to obtain the seismic vulnerability of some classes of residential buildings existing in mainland Portugal is presented. This methodology is based on a structural analysis of individual buildings belonging to the same typology. An application example is presented to illustrate the methodology. Fragility curves of “boxed” building typology are also presented and broken down into three height classes: low rise, medium-rise and high-rise. These curves are based on average capacity spectra derived from several individual buildings belonging to the same typology.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

Cryo-Microtome sections of coproculture larvae of Strongyloides stercoralis and Strongyloides ratti as antigen sources for the immunodiagnosis of human strongyloidiasis

Cryo-microtome sections of larvae of Strongyloides stercoralis and S. ratti respectively obtained from human and rat feces cultures, were used as antigens. Fluoresceinate conjugates against human IgG were employed at the ideal titer of 10 for S. stercoralis and 100 for S. ratti. The sensitivity of the indirect immunofluorescence reaction (IIF) was 94.4% and 92.5% and the specificity 94.2% and 97.1% for the two specific larval antigens, respectively. Sera from 123 persons (54 from carriers of S. stercoralis infections and 69 from controls) were submitted to the reaction. The titers of different sera varied from 20 to 2560. There was a significant linear correlation (r = 0.85 p £ 0.001) between the antibodies from the two species of larval antigens. We conclude that both antigens may be used in the IIF reaction for the diagnosis of human strongyloidiasis. Due to the feasibility of safe and low-cost mass production of S. ratti larvae in the laboratory with a considerable economy of conjugate, their utilization in the serum diagnosis of human strongyloidiasis is recommended

Scientific research: identify credible sources and use them correctly

Scientific research seminar within CICE mini summer school 25 june

Characterization of Cryptococcus neoformans isolated from urban environmental sources in Goiânia, Goiás State, Brazil

Cryptococcus neoformans is an opportunistic fungal pathogen that causes meningoencephalitis as the most frequent clinical presentation in immunocompromised patients, mainly in people infected by HIV. This fungus is an environmental encapsulated yeast, commonly found in soil enriched with avian droppings and plant material. A total of 290 samples of pigeon and the other avian droppings, soil, ornamental trees and vegetable material associated with Eucalyptus trees were collected to study environmental sources of Cryptococcus species in Goiânia, Goiás State. The determination of varieties, serotypes and the susceptibility in vitro to fluconazole, itraconazole and amphotericin B of C. neoformans isolates were performed. C. neoformans var. grubii (serotype A) was found in 20.3% (36/177) of pigeon dropping samples and in 14.3% (5/35) of samples of Eucalyptus. None of the environmental isolates of C. neoformans showed in vitro resistance to three antifungal agents. The knowledge of major route for human cryptococcal infection (inhalation of infectious particles from saprophytic sources) and a total of 60 C. neoformans isolates obtained from AIDS patients with cryptococcal meningitis between October 2001 and April 2002 justify the study of the habitats of these yeasts as probable sources of cryptococcosis in this city.

An evaluation of manual and mechanical methods to identify Candida spp. from human and animal sources

To compare two yeast identification methods, i. e, the manual and the VITEK mechanical methods, 62 clinical samples from hemocultures and animal sources were analyzed. After identification as Candida yeasts by the VITEK method, the strains were recharacterized using manual assimilation methods and sugar fermentation tests. Our findings reveal 58% concurrent identification between the two methods for animal strains, and 51% for human hemoculture strains.

Feeding sources and trypanosome infection index of Rhodnius pallescens in a Chagas disease endemic area of Amador County, Panama

The sylvatic triatomine Rhodnius pallescens is considered to be the most important and widespread vector of Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli in Panama. However, its behavior and biological characteristics have only been partially investigated. Thus, to achieve sustainable and efficient control over Chagas disease in Panama, a better understanding of the ecology and biology of R. pallescens is essential. In this study we evaluated R. pallescens host feeding sources using a dot-blot assay, and the trypanosome infection index by PCR analysis in a Chagas disease endemic area of central Panama. It was found that in peridomestic palm trees, 20.3% of the examined bugs had fed on opossums (Didelphis marsupialis). However, we observed an increased anthropophagy (25.4%) for those bugs collected inside houses. Considering the domestic and peridomestic habitats as a whole, the proportion of collected R. pallescens infected with trypanosomes was 87.4%. In the two habitats the predominant infection was with T. cruzi (80-90%). Between 47-51% of the analyzed triatomines were infected with T. rangeli. Mixed infections (40-51%) were also detected. These findings provide a better basis for the implementation of a rational control and surveillance program for Chagas disease in regions where R. pallescens is endemic.

Attachment, Physiological and Familial Vulnerability in Childhood Obesity: an Interactive Multisystem Approach

The aims of the present study were to test the association between insecure attachment and basal cortisol and catecholamines levels in a sample of obese children. The role of familial vulnerability and gender was also investigated. Methods: Cortisol and catecholamines levels of 8- to 13-year olds obese children were measured. Self-report questionnaires were used to assess attachment pattern and current anxiety and depression, and parent-report questionnaires were used to assess attachment, current anxiety and depression and familial vulnerability. Linear regression analyses were performed for individuals that scored low versus high on parental internalizing problems, and for boys and girls, separately. Results: In the group with high parental internalizing problems, insecure attachment was significantly associated with reduced basal levels of cortisol, in boys (p=0.007, b= -0.861, R2= 73.0%). In the group with low parental internalizing problems, the association between insecure attachment and cortisol was not significant in either boys or girls, and it was negative in boys (p=0.075, b= -0.606, R2= 36.7%) and positive in girls (p=0.677, b= 0.176, R2= 3.1%) . Conclusions: Apparently, physiological risk factors for psicopathology in obesity are more evident in individuals with a high familial vulnerability. In addition, patterns of physiological risk for psicopathology in obesity are different in boys and girls. Therefore, it is important to take into account familial vulnerability and gender when investigating physiological risk factors for psycopathology in obesity. Insecure attachment in childhood may be a risk factor for obesity. Interventions to increase children's attachment security should examine the effects on children's weight.

Municipalities of higher vulnerability to Sylvatic Yellow Fever occurrence in the São Paulo State, Brazil

Until 1999 the endemic cases of Sylvatic Yellow Fever were located in the states of northern, midwestern and pre-Amazon regions. Since then, the disease progressively expanded its territory of occurrence, cases being registered beyond the traditional boundaries of endemism. The São Paulo State is considered to be part of this context, since after decades without registration of autochthonous cases of the disease, it reported, in 2000 and 2008-2009, epizootic occurrence in non-human primates and 30 cases in humans. Facts like these, added to the increase in incidences of serious adverse effects resulting from the Yellow Fever vaccination, have highlighted the importance of defining priority municipalities for vaccination against the disease in the state. Two groups of municipalities, some affected and some non-affected by YF, were compared for environmental variables related to the eco-epidemiology of the disease according to literature. The Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was used to pinpoint the factor able to differentiate the two groups of municipalities and define the levels of risk. The southeast region of the São Paulo State was considered to be the area with a higher number of municipalities classified as high risk and should be considered a priority for the application of prevention measures against Yellow Fever.

Inventário hidrogeológico e dos potenciais focos de contaminação nas bacias hidrográficas da Asprela e Massarelos: implicações no ciclo hidrológico urbano

O desenvolvimento incessante em áreas urbanas ameaça a qualidade e quantidade das águas subterrâneas. O Porto é uma cidade densamente urbanizada, dominada por granitos, os quais constituem um meio fraturado anisotrópico e heterogéneo. O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi realçar a importância da cartografia hidrogeológica, bem como a relevância de realizar inventários hidrogeológicos e de potenciais focos de contaminação para compreender a vulnerabilidade dos sistemas aquíferos na cidade do Porto. Para tal, foram selecionadas as bacias hidrográficas da Asprela e de Massarelos. Assim, foram levados a cabo dois inventários, um hidrogeológico e outro das potenciais atividades de contaminação. O estudo foi apoiado pelos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG), os quais foram fundamentais para um melhor conhecimento e integração nas áreas de estudo. Previamente à implementação dos inventários foi feita uma caracterização das duas bacias, em termos geográficos, hidroclimatológicos, de ocupação do solo, geomorfológicos e hidrogeológicos. As duas bacias desenvolvem‐se, principalmente, na unidade hidrogeológica do granito de grão médio a fino, por vezes com saprólito. O inventário hidrogeológico contemplou principalmente fontanários e nascentes, tendo incluído, respetivamente, 8 e 21 pontos de água nas bacias da Asprela e de Massarelos. As águas subterrâneas são límpidas, sem turvação ou cheiro, ácidas, com mineralizações baixas a médias, temperaturas baixas e caudais muito pequenos. Quanto aos potenciais focos de contaminação, na bacia da Asprela foram reconhecidos 61, enquanto que na bacia de Massarelos foram identificados 78. A maioria destas atividades é pontual correspondendo, nomeadamente, a estabelecimentos de ensino e estações de serviço/oficinas de automóveis. Contudo, os focos lineares apresentam uma difusão significativa nas duas bacias hidrográficas. Apesar de a vulnerabilidade intrínseca à contaminação das águas subterrâneas nestas áreas ser baixa a moderada, a localização dos potenciais focos de contaminação poderá ser responsável pelo aumento da vulnerabilidade nas duas bacias estudadas. Esta metodologia demonstrou ser extremamente importante para um melhor conhecimento dos sistemas de água subterrânea do Porto e, ainda, da hidrogeologia de áreas urbanas.

Delineating environmental groundwater vulnerability and protection zones mapping in fractured rock masses

Hard‐rock watersheds commonly exhibit complex geological bedrock and morphological features. Hydromineral resources have relevant economic value for the thermal spas industry. The present study aims to develop a groundwater vulnerability approach in Caldas da Cavaca hydromineral system (Aguiar da Beira, Central Portugal) which has a thermal tradition that dates back to the late 19th century, and contribute to a better understanding of the hydrogeological conceptual site model. In this work different layers were overlaid, generating several thematic maps to arrive at an integrated framework of several key‐sectors in Caldas da Cavaca site. Thus, to accomplish a comprehensive analysis and conceptualization of the site, a multi‐technical approach was used, such as, field and laboratory techniques, where several data was collected, like geotectonics, hydrology and hydrogeology, hydrogeomorphology, hydrogeophysical and hydrogeomechanical zoning aiming the application of the so‐called DISCO method. All these techniques were successfully performed and a groundwater vulnerability to contamination assessment, based on GOD‐S, DRASTIC‐Fm, SINTACS, SI and DISCO indexes methodology, was delineated. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology was on the basis to organise and integrate the geodatabases and to produce all the thematic maps. This multi‐technical approach highlights the importance of groundwater vulnerability to contamination mapping as a tool to support hydrogeological conceptualisation, contributing to better decision‐making of water resources management and sustainability.