Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models

This study presents an approach to combine uncertainties of the hydrological model outputs predicted from a number of machine learning models. The machine learning based uncertainty prediction approach is very useful for estimation of hydrological models' uncertainty in particular hydro-metrological situation in real-time application [1]. In this approach the hydrological model realizations from Monte Carlo simulations are used to build different machine learning uncertainty models to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of the a deterministic output from hydrological model . Uncertainty models are trained using antecedent precipitation and streamflows as inputs. The trained models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. We used three machine learning models namely artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression to predict output uncertainties. These three models produce similar verification results, which can be improved by merging their outputs dynamically. We propose an approach to form a committee of the three models to combine their outputs. The approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model in the Brue catchment in UK and the Bagmati catchment in Nepal. The verification results show that merged output is better than an individual model output. [1] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press, 2013.

COMPARATIVE COLONY PRODUCTIVITY OF POLISTES-SIMILLIMUS AND POLISTES-VERSICOLOR (HYMENOPTERA, VESPIDAE) AND THE EVOLUTION OF PARAGYNY IN THE POLISTINAE

Over a 3-year period, all colony foundations of the social wasps Polistes versicolor and Polistes simillimus were registered, and the fate and growth of all colonies were followed. P. simillimus exhibited a greater number of colony-founding attempts, while P. versicolor had a larger number of adult colonies. P. simillimus had greater cell numbers and number of adults produced per colony. P. simillimus reutilized only a small percentage of brood cells for adult production for up to 2 generations, while P. versicolor reutilized a large percentage of brood cells for up to 3 generations. Consequently, cell production was higher in P. simillimus. Because of a high rate of adult production and extensive cell production, we suggest that P. simillimus may demonstrate paragynous social organization, and may demonstrate an intermediate form between polygynous and monogynous Vespidae. Paragynous associations may lead to lower predation pressures and a relative independence of adult production on time.

Nest associates and colony trees of the red-rumped cacique (Cacicus Haemorrhous, Icteridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Foraging behavior and colony cycle of agelaia vicina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae; Epiponini)

The neotropical Agelaia vicina has the largest nest built among social wasps, yet little is known about nest construction, growth and structure. In this work, the development of two nests of A. vicina was followed. Studies were done through analysis of images to estimate the growth of nests. The material collected below the nests was examined to estimate colony productivity. Nests were collected to analyze their architecture and structure. Colony cycle was similar in the two colonies. Colonies increase in size throughout the dry season and into the rainy season, with a sudden drop in production at the end of the rainy season. The colonies doubled in size in about six months.

Informe de la Reunión Regional Latinoamericana Preparatoria de la Conferencia Internacional sobre Población, realizada en el marco del Séptimo Período de Sesiones del Comité de Expertos Gubernamentales de Alto Nivel = Report of the Latin American Regional Preparatory Meeting for the International Conference on Population, held within the Seventh Session of the Committee of High-Level Government Experts

Incluye Bibliografía

Informe del Noveno Período de Sesiones del Comité de Expertos Gubernamentales de Alto Nivel, dedicado a la ciencia y la tecnología para el desarrollo = Report of the Ninth Session of the Committee of High-Level Government Experts: science and technology for development

Presenta la organizacion de los trabajos y el resumen de los debates de la reunion del CEGAN, realizada en Montevideo entre el 23 y el 24 de enero de 1984 en la cual se trataron la evaluacion de la aplicacion del Programa de Accion de Viena sobre ciencia y tecnologia para el desarrollo en America Latina, las propuestas de medidas y acciones futuras y las recomendaciones a los organos internacionales y regionales.

Informe del Undécimo Período de Sesiones del Comité de Expertos Gubernamentales de Alto Nivel (CEGAN), Bogotá, Colombia, 3-6 marzo 1986 = Report of the Eleventh Session of the Committee of High-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Bogota, Colombia, 3-6 March 1986

Contiene la organizacion de los trabajos, resumen de los debates y conclusiones de la reunion que tuvo por objetivo analizar, por una parte, la instrumentacion de la Estrategia Internacional del Desarrollo (EID) y las perspectivas de America Latina y el Caribe para el fin del decenio de 1980, teniendo presente la evolucion de la crisis y, por la otra, la deuda externa de America Latina y el Caribe.