975 resultados para Version Control


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La version intégrale de cette thèse est disponible uniquement pour consultation individuelle à la Bibliothèque de musique de l’Université de Montréal (http://www.bib.umontreal.ca/MU).

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Resumen tomado de la publicación

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It has been shown previously that one member of the Met Office Hadley Centre single-parameter perturbed physics ensemble – the so-called "low entrainment parameter" member – has a much higher climate sensitivity than other individual parameter perturbations. Here we show that the concentration of stratospheric water vapour in this member is over three times higher than observations, and, more importantly for climate sensitivity, increases significantly when climate warms. The large surface temperature response of this ensemble member is more consistent with stratospheric humidity change, rather than upper tropospheric clouds as has been previously suggested. The direct relationship between the bias in the control state (elevated stratospheric humidity) and the cause of the high climate sensitivity (a further increase in stratospheric humidity) lends further doubt as to the realism of this particular integration. This, together with other evidence, lowers the likelihood that the climate system's physical sensitivity is significantly higher than the likely upper range quoted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report.

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An algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses Dynamic Integrated System Optimization and Parameter Estimation (DISOPE), which achieves the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimization procedure. A version of the algorithm with a linear-quadratic model-based problem, implemented in the C+ + programming language, is developed and applied to illustrative simulation examples. An analysis of the optimality and convergence properties of the algorithm is also presented.

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A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is nudged toward reanalysis data up to 1 hPa is used to examine the impacts of parameterized orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD and NGWD) on the zonal-mean circulation of the mesosphere during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009 when there were two large stratospheric sudden warmings. The simulations are compared to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations of mesospheric temperature, carbon monoxide (CO) and derived zonal winds. The control simulation, which uses both OGWD and NGWD, is shown to be in good agreement with MLS. The impacts of OGWD and NGWD are assessed using simulations in which those sources of wave drag are removed. In the absence of OGWD the mesospheric zonal winds in the months preceding the warmings are too strong, causing increased mesospheric NGWD, which drives excessive downwelling, resulting in overly large lower mesospheric values of CO prior to the warming. NGWD is found to be most important following the warmings when the underlying westerlies are too weak to allow much vertical propagation of the orographic gravity waves to the mesosphere. NGWD is primarily responsible for driving the circulation that results in the descent of CO from the thermosphere following the warmings. Zonal mean mesospheric winds and temperatures in all simulations are shown to be strongly constrained by (i.e. slaved to) the stratosphere. Finally, it is demonstrated that the responses to OGWD and NGWD are non-additive due to their dependence and influence on the background winds and temperatures.

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The Hill's equations-even in the linear original version are a describer of phenomenon having chaotic flavor, giving sometimes very unusual situations. The theory of the so called intervals of instability in the equation provides the precise description for most of these phenomena. Considerations on nonlinearities into the Hill's equation is a quite recent task. The linearized version for almost of these systems it reduces to the Hill's classical linear one. In this paper, some indicative facts are pointed out on the possibility of having the linear system stabilizable and/or exactly controllable. As consequence of such an approach we get results having strong classical aspects, like the one talking about location of parameters in intervals of stability. A result for nonlinear proper periodic controls, is considered too. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Objective: This study aimed to analyze and compare the role of a water-based exercise program versus a combination of water and callisthenic exercises on postural control, functional independence, and freezing of gait (FOG) in patients with mild to moderate Parkinson disease.Methods: Twenty-five community-dwelling participants with idiopathic Parkinson disease were recruited. Of these, 9 participants took part in a water-based program of physical exercises and the other 16 participants took part in a combined program that consisted of callisthenic exercises plus an aquatic exercise session. Both programs were 16 weeks in duration. The clinical evaluation assessed the festination by means of the FOG score test; postural control was verified by means of the balance test of the short physical performance battery, and the Spanish validated version of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part 2 was used to assess functional independence. Participants were evaluated before and after 16 weeks of both proposed programs.Results: The results showed improvement in FOG for both groups, although a significant main effect was observed only in the patients who performed the callisthenic exercise plus an aquatic exercise program. Postural control did not show significant improvements after both proposed physical exercise programs as soon as functional autonomy. Our preliminary results suggest that training sessions with the combination of water plus callisthenic exercises may be a useful physical rehabilitation strategy for individuals with mild to moderate Parkinson disease who have FOG.

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The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

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The deterioration of performance over time is characteristic for sustained attention tasks. This so-called "performance decrement" is measured by the increase of reaction time (RT) over time. Some behavioural and neurobiological mechanisms of this phenomenon are not yet fully understood. Behaviourally, we examined the increase of RT over time and the inter-individual differences of this performance decrement. On the neurophysiological level, we investigated the task-relevant brain areas where neural activity was modulated by RT and searched for brain areas involved in good performance (i.e. participants with no or moderate performance decrement) as compared to poor performance (i.e. participants with a steep performance decrement). For this purpose, 20 healthy, young subjects performed a carefully designed task for simple sustained attention, namely a low-demanding version of the Rapid Visual Information Processing task. We employed a rapid event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) design. The behavioural results showed a significant increase of RT over time in the whole group, and also revealed that some participants were not as prone to the performance decrement as others. The latter was statistically significant comparing good versus poor performers. Moreover, high BOLD-responses were linked to longer RTs in a task-relevant bilateral fronto-cingulate-insular-parietal network. Among these regions, good performance was associated with significantly higher RT-BOLD correlations in the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA). We concluded that the task-relevant bilateral fronto-cingulate-insular-parietal network was a cognitive control network responsible for goal-directed attention. The pre-SMA in particular might be associated with the performance decrement insofar that good performers could sustain activity in this brain region in order to monitor performance declines and adjust behavioural output.

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The accuracy of simulating the aerodynamics and structural properties of the blades is crucial in the wind-turbine technology. Hence the models used to implement these features need to be very precise and their level of detailing needs to be high. With the variety of blade designs being developed the models should be versatile enough to adapt to the changes required by every design. We are going to implement a combination of numerical models which are associated with the structural and the aerodynamic part of the simulation using the computational power of a parallel HPC cluster. The structural part models the heterogeneous internal structure of the beam based on a novel implementation of the Generalized Timoshenko Beam Model Technique.. Using this technique the 3-D structure of the blade is reduced into a 1-D beam which is asymptotically equivalent. This reduces the computational cost of the model without compromising its accuracy. This structural model interacts with the Flow model which is a modified version of the Blade Element Momentum Theory. The modified version of the BEM accounts for the large deflections of the blade and also considers the pre-defined structure of the blade. The coning, sweeping of the blade, tilt of the nacelle and the twist of the sections along the blade length are all computed by the model which aren’t considered in the classical BEM theory. Each of these two models provides feedback to the other and the interactive computations lead to more accurate outputs. We successfully implemented the computational models to analyze and simulate the structural and aerodynamic aspects of the blades. The interactive nature of these models and their ability to recompute data using the feedback from each other makes this code more efficient than the commercial codes available. In this thesis we start off with the verification of these models by testing it on the well-known benchmark blade for the NREL-5MW Reference Wind Turbine, an alternative fixed-speed stall-controlled blade design proposed by Delft University, and a novel alternative design that we proposed for a variable-speed stall-controlled turbine, which offers the potential for more uniform power control and improved annual energy production.. To optimize the power output of the stall-controlled blade we modify the existing designs and study their behavior using the aforementioned aero elastic model.

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Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.