Guy's Hospital medical and surgical school

Mode of access: Internet.

St Thomas's Hospital Medical and Surgical College.

Mode of access: Internet.

Cost shifting, hospital financial viability, and accessibility of hospital care : Task Force report to the Council.

Cover title.

Are diagnosis specific outcome indicators based on administrative data useful in assessing quality of hospital care?

Background: Hospital performance reports based on administrative data should distinguish differences in quality of care between hospitals from case mix related variation and random error effects. A study was undertaken to determine which of 12 diagnosis-outcome indicators measured across all hospitals in one state had significant risk adjusted systematic ( or special cause) variation (SV) suggesting differences in quality of care. For those that did, we determined whether SV persists within hospital peer groups, whether indicator results correlate at the individual hospital level, and how many adverse outcomes would be avoided if all hospitals achieved indicator values equal to the best performing 20% of hospitals. Methods: All patients admitted during a 12 month period to 180 acute care hospitals in Queensland, Australia with heart failure (n = 5745), acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) ( n = 3427), or stroke ( n = 2955) were entered into the study. Outcomes comprised in-hospital deaths, long hospital stays, and 30 day readmissions. Regression models produced standardised, risk adjusted diagnosis specific outcome event ratios for each hospital. Systematic and random variation in ratio distributions for each indicator were then apportioned using hierarchical statistical models. Results: Only five of 12 (42%) diagnosis-outcome indicators showed significant SV across all hospitals ( long stays and same diagnosis readmissions for heart failure; in-hospital deaths and same diagnosis readmissions for AMI; and in-hospital deaths for stroke). Significant SV was only seen for two indicators within hospital peer groups ( same diagnosis readmissions for heart failure in tertiary hospitals and inhospital mortality for AMI in community hospitals). Only two pairs of indicators showed significant correlation. If all hospitals emulated the best performers, at least 20% of AMI and stroke deaths, heart failure long stays, and heart failure and AMI readmissions could be avoided. Conclusions: Diagnosis-outcome indicators based on administrative data require validation as markers of significant risk adjusted SV. Validated indicators allow quantification of realisable outcome benefits if all hospitals achieved best performer levels. The overall level of quality of care within single institutions cannot be inferred from the results of one or a few indicators.

Trends in the use of hospital beds by older people in Australia: 1993-2002

Objective: To determine trends in use of Australian acute hospital inpatient services by older patients. Design and data sources: Secondary analysis of hospital data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in the period 1993-94 to 2001-02, with population data for this period from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Outcome measures: Population-based rates of hospital separations and bed utilisation. Results: The Australian aged population (65 years and older) increased by 18% compared with total population growth of 10%, yet the proportion of hospital beds occupied by older patients remained stable at 47%. The most substantial changes were observed in the population aged 75 years and older, with separations increasing by 89%, length of stay reducing by 35% and bed utilisation increasing by 23%. However, rates of bed utilisation (in relation to population) declined among older groups (10% decline in per capita use in population 75 years and older), but increased in the younger population (1% increase in per capita use in people younger than 65 years). Conclusion: Important trends in use of inpatient services were identified in this study. These trends are contrary to common perception. Ageing of the Australian population was not associated with an increase in the proportion of hospital beds used by older patients.

The use of cusum analysis in the early detection and management of hospital bed occupancy crises

Objective: To assess the value of cusum analysis in hospital bed management. Design: Comparative analysis of medical patient flows, bed occupancy, and emergency department admission rates and access block over 2 years. Setting: Internal Medicine Services and Emergency Department in a teaching hospital. Interventions: Improvements in bed use and changes in the level of available beds. Main outcome measures: Average length of stay; percentage occupancy of available beds; number of patients waiting more than 8 hours for admission (access block); number of medical patients occupying beds in non-medical wards; and number of elective surgical admissions. Results: Cusum analysis provided a simple means of revealing important trends in patient flows that were not obvious in conventional time-series data. This prompted improvements in bed use that resulted in a decrease of 9500 occupied bed-days over a year. Unfortunately and unexpectedly, after some initial improvement, the levels of access block, medical ward congestion and elective surgical admissions all then deteriorated significantly. This was probably caused by excessive bed closures in response to the initial improvement in bed use. Conclusion: Cusum analysis is a useful technique for the early detection of significant changes in patient flows and bed use, and in determining the appropriate number of beds required for a given rate of patient flow.

Cost of tobacco-related diseases, including passive smoking, in Hong Kong

Background: Costs of tobacco-related disease can be useful evidence to support tobacco control. In Hong Kong we now have locally derived data on the risks of smoking, including passive smoking. Aim: To estimate the health-related costs of tobacco from both active and passive smoking. Methods: Using local data, we estimated active and passive smoking-attributable mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient, emergency and general practitioner visits for adults and children, use of nursing homes and domestic help, time lost from work due to illness and premature mortality in the productive years. Morbidity risk data were used where possible but otherwise estimates based on mortality risks were used. Utilisation was valued at unit costs or from survey data. Work time lost was valued at the median wage and an additional costing included a value of US$1.3 million for a life lost. Results: In the Hong Kong population of 6.5 million in 1998, the annual value of direct medical costs, long term care and productivity loss was US$532 million for active smoking and US$156 million for passive smoking; passive smoking accounted for 23% of the total costs. Adding the value of attributable lives lost brought the annual cost to US$9.4 billion. Conclusion: The health costs of tobacco use are high and represent a net loss to society. Passive smoking increases these costs by at least a quarter. This quantification of the costs of tobacco provides strong motivation for legislative action on smoke-free areas in the Asia Pacific Region and elsewhere.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Public reporting of hospital outcomes based on administrative data: risks and opportunities

In the wake of findings from the Bundaberg Hospital and Forster inquiries in Queensland, periodic public release of hospital performance reports has been recommended. A process for developing and releasing such reports is being established by Queensland Health, overseen by an independent expert panel. This recommendation presupposes that public reports based on routinely collected administrative data are accurate; that the public can access, correctly interpret and act upon report contents; that reports motivate hospital clinicians and managers to improve quality of care; and that there are no unintended adverse effects of public reporting. Available research suggests that primary data sources are often inaccurate and incomplete, that reports have low predictive value in detecting outlier hospitals, and that users experience difficulty in accessing and interpreting reports and tend to distrust their findings.

Medicines management across the primary-hospital healthcare interface: a study of paediatric patients

A comparison of medicines management documents in use by NHS organisations in the West Midlands confirms that there are important differences between the primary care and hospital sectors in respect to medicines management interface issues. Of these, two aspects important to paediatric patients have been studied. These are the transfer of information as a patient is admitted to hospital, and access to long-term medicines for home-patients. National guidance provided by NICE requires medication reconciliation to be undertaken on admission to hospital for adults. A study of paediatric admissions, reported in this thesis, demonstrates that the clinical importance of this process is at least as important for children as for adults, and challenges current UK guidance. The transfer of essential medication information on hospital admission is central to the medication reconciliation process. Two surveys of PCTs in 2007 and again in 2009 demonstrate that very few PCTs provide guidance to GPs to support this process. Provision of guidance is increasing slowly but remains the exception. The provision of long-term medicines for children at home is hindered by this patient population often needing unlicensed drugs. Further studies demonstrate that primary care processes regularly fail to maintain access to essential drugs and patients and their carers frequently turn to hospitals for help. Surveys of hospital medical staff (single site) and hospital nurses (six UK sites) demonstrates the activity these healthcare workers perform to help children get the medicines they need. A similar survey of why carers turn to a hospital pharmacy department for urgent supplies (usually termed rescue-medicines) adds to the understanding of these problems and supports identifying service changes. A large survey of community pharmacies demonstrates the difficulties they have when dispensing hospital prescriptions and identifies practical solutions. This programme concludes by recommending service changes to support medication management for children.

Accounting and the 'insoluble' problem of health care costs

Health service accounting reforms are frequently promoted, explained or justified with reference to ageing populations, expensive medical technologies and their purported implications for the cost of health care. Drawing on Foucault’s genealogical method, we examine the emergence of concerns regarding health expenditure in the wake of the creation of the British National Health Service in 1948, and their relationship with health service accounting practices. We argue that concerns regarding the cost of health care are historically contingent rather than inescapable consequences of demographic and technological change, and that health service accounting practices are both constitutive and reflective of such concerns. We conclude by relating our analysis to current attempts to control costs and increase efficiency in the health services.

Managerial work roles of health care executives in the changing environment of academic medical centers

The current U.S. health care system faces numerous environmental challenges. To compete and survive, health care organizations are developing strategies to lower costs and increase efficiency and quality. All of these strategies require rapid and precise decision making by top level managers. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the environment, made up of unfavorable market conditions and limited resources, and the work roles of top level managers, specifically in the settings of academic medical centers. Managerial work roles are based on the ten work roles developed by Henry Mintzberg, in his book, The Nature of Managerial Work (1973). ^ This research utilized an integrated conceptual framework made up of systems theory in conjunction with role, attribution and contingency theories to illustrate that four most frequently performed Mintzberg's work roles are affected by the two environment dimensions. The study sample consisted of 108 chief executive officers in academic medical centers throughout the United States. The methods included qualitative methods in the form of key informants and case studies and quantitative in the form of a survey questionnaire. Research analysis involved descriptive statistics, reliability tests, correlation, principal component and multivariate analyses. ^ Results indicated that under the market condition of increased revenue based on capitation, the work roles increased. In addition, under the environment dimension of limited resources, the work roles increased when uncompensated care increased while Medicare and non-government funding decreased. ^ Based on these results, a typology of health care managers in academic medical centers was created. Managers could be typed as a strategy-formulator, relationship-builder or task delegator. Therefore, managers who ascertained their types would be able to use this knowledge to build their strengths and develop their weaknesses. Furthermore, organizations could use the typology to identify appropriate roles and responsibilities of managers for their specific needs. Consequently, this research is a valuable tool for understanding health care managerial behaviors that lead to improved decision making. At the same time, this could enhance satisfaction and performance and enable organizations to gain the competitive edge . ^