Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed’s reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the remaining regime by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Cyclical Features of Uzawa-Lucas Endogenous Growth Model

This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of a generalized version of Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model. We study the dynamic features of different cyclical components of this model characterized by a variety of decomposition methods. The decomposition methods considered can be classified in two groups. On the one hand, we consider three statistical filters: the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and Gonzalo-Granger decomposition. On the other hand, we use four model-based decomposition methods. The latter decomposition procedures share the property that the cyclical components obtained by these methods preserve the log-linear approximation of the Euler-equation restrictions imposed by the agent’s intertemporal optimization problem. The paper shows that both model dynamics and model performance substantially vary across decomposition methods. A parallel exercise is carried out with a standard real business cycle model. The results should help researchers to better understand the performance of Uzawa-Lucas model in relation to standard business cycle models under alternative definitions of the business cycle.

Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money

This paper analyzes the existence of an inflation tax Laffer curve (ITLC) in the context of two standard optimizing monetary models: a cash-in-advance model and a money in the utility function model. Agents’ preferences are characterized in the two models by a constant relative risk aversion utility function. Explosive hyperinflation rules out the presence of an ITLC. In the context of a cash-in-advance economy, this paper shows that explosive hyperinflation is feasible and thus an ITLC is ruled out whenever the relative risk aversion parameter is greater than one. In the context of an optimizing model with money in the utility function, this paper firstly shows that an ITLC is ruled out. Moreover, it is shown that explosive hyperinflations are more likely when the transactions role of money is more important. However, hyperinflationary paths are not feasible in this context unless certain restrictions are imposed.

Trend analysis in two standard growth models

This paper analyzes the trend processes characterized by two standard growth models using simple econometrics. The first model is the basic neoclassical growth model that postulates a deterministic trend for output. The second model is the Uzawa-Lucas model that postulates a stochastic trend for output. The aim is to understand how the different trend processes for output assumed by these two standard growth models determine the ability of each model to explain the observed trend processes of other macroeconomic variables such as consumption and investment. The results show that the two models reproduce the output trend process. Moreover, the results show that the basic growth model captures properly the consumption trend process, but fails in characterizing the investment trend process. The reverse is true for the Uzawa-Lucas model.

Is there a Phillips Curve in the US and the EU15 Countries? An empirical investigation

This paper studies the comovement between output and inflation in the EU15 countries. Following den Haan (2000), I use the correlations of VAR forecast errors at different horizons in order to analyze the output-inflation relationship. The empirical results show that eight countries display a significant positive comovement between output and inflation. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that a Phillips curve phenomenom is more likely to be detected in countries where inflation is more stable.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

El valor de marca: perspectivas de análisis y criterios de estimación

[ES] A lo largo de la última década, se ha originado un importante debate acerca de lo que debe entenderse por valor de marca. En la delimitación de este concepto se han utilizado varias perspectivas de análisis y criterios de estimación muy diferentes, de ahí que aún exista sobre este tema una excesiva ambigüedad. En este trabajo se presenta un marco teórico donde se contemplan distintas perspectivas de estudio y varios criterios de estimación del valor de marca. A partir de este marco, se analizan empíricamente siete criterios de estimación de acuerdo con la información recogida de una muestra de usuarios sobre seis marcas de zapatillas de deporte. Con ello se pretende contribuir a un mejor conocimiento del concepto de valor de marca.

La implicación del cliente: compilación teórica

[ES] En el presente trabajo llevamos a cabo una delimitación del constructo implicación, para lo que nos introducimos en los siguientes aspectos: a) conocer el origen de su estudio, así como los diferentes marcos conceptuales de abordaje; b) eliminar posibles confusiones con otros conceptos (por ejemplo, entre la implicación y la motivación); c) conocer sus determinantes, dimensiones y consecuencias; d) abordar el debate existente en torno a su conceptualización así como la posible unión entre diferentes posturas.

Harmful algal blooms in the PICES region of the North Pacific

Foreword Background and objectives [pdf, 0.84 MB] Country reviews and status reports Section I. Western North Pacific Japan Yasuwo Fukuyo, Ichiro Imai, Masaaki Kodama and Kyoichi Tamai Red tides and harmful algal blooms in Japan [pdf, 0.7 MB] People's Republic of China Tian Yan, Ming-Jiang Zhou and Jing-Zhong Zou A national report of HABs in China [pdf, 0.24 MB] Republic of Korea Sam Geun Lee, Hak Gyoon Kim, Eon Seob Cho and Chang Kyu Lee Harmful algal blooms (red tides): Management and mitigation in Korea [pdf, 0.27 MB] Russia Tatiana Y. Orlova, Galina V. Konovalova, Inna V. Stonik, Tatiana V. Morozova and Olga G. Shevchenko Harmful algal blooms on the eastern coast of Russia [pdf, 1.4 MB] Section II. Eastern North Pacific Canada F.J.R. "Max" Taylor and Paul J. Harrison Harmful marine algal blooms in western Canada [pdf, 0.87 MB] United States of America Vera L. Trainer Harmful algal blooms on the U.S. west coast [pdf, 0.5 MB] Mexico Jose L. Ochoa, S. Lluch-Cota, B.O. Arredondo-Vega, E. Nuñes-Vázquez, A. Heredia-Tapia, J. Pérez-Linares and R. Alonso-Rodriguez Marine Biotoxins and harmful algal blooms in Mexico's Pacific littora [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary and conclusions [pdf, 0.6 MB] Appendices A. Members of the Working Group [pdf, 0.1 MB] B. Original terms of reference (Vladivostok, 1999) [pdf, 0.08 MB] C. Annual reports of WG 15 [pdf, 0.15 MB] D. Workshop report on taxonomy and identification of HAB species and data management [pdf, 0.15 MB] (Document pdf contains 156 pages)

¿Cómo gestionan las empresas emprendoras los recursos humanos? El caso de REDUR

[ES] En este trabajo se analiza la dirección de los recursos humanos en una empresa familiar y emprendedora, REDUR. En concreto, analizamos las características y los principales problemas en esta área a lo largo de la vida de la empresa. Actualmente REDUR se encuentra en su etapa de crecimiento. El estudio realizado nos ha permitido saber que la gestión de recursos humanos va adquiriendo un carácter más formal y que la formación y la contratación son las prácticas más importantes. Precisamente, en lo que se refiere a estas prácticas, destaca la utilización de la grafología, como técnica para seleccionar al personal, y la importancia de la socialización. Esto se puede deber a que las empresas en crecimiento priorizan el ajuste persona-organización.

Determinantes sociales y cognitivos en el espíritu emprendedor: un estudio exploratorio entre estudiantes argentinos

[ES] En este artículo analizamos las intenciones de emprender un negocio por parte de un grupo de estudiantes argentinos que cursaban la especialización en Dirección Estratégica de Recursos Humanos en la Universidad de Buenos Aires. Los resultados del estudio muestran que estos estudiantes desean crear su propio negocio, pero las posibilidades de creación del mismo dependen de varios factores. Entre todos ellos destaca la autoeficacia; aquellos estudiantes que muestran puntuaciones más elevadas en esta variable son los que manifiestan más intención por crear un negocio. Esta intención, en contra de lo esperado, es menor para los alumnos que señalan poseer más apoyo social. No encontramos que las cargas familiares o la experiencia previa en creación de empresas tengan un efecto significativo.

Regional Entrepreneurial Scorecard

[ES] Este trabajo analiza la relación entre el desarrollo regional y la creación de empresas desde una perspectiva micro del enfoque institucional, a partir de los stakeholders más relevantes que intervienen en el proceso. La contribución de los emprendedores al crecimiento económico regional viene siendo objeto de especial atención por los poderes públicos, para lo que se necesita un sistema de referencias que permita evaluar la adecuación de los programas públicos de fomento de la actividad emprendedora.