Technology diffusion and the spatial distribution of wages in the US

What explains the spatial distribution of wages across US counties? I find that two of the most important factors are spatial technology diffusion and externalities due to the aggregate scale of production. One empirical finding supporting the importance of spatial technology diffusion is that average wages in a county decrease with the average level of schooling in neighboring counties when employment in the county and average wages in neighboring counties are held constant. All empirical results are obtained using anovel instrument for (endogenous) employment at the county-leveland take into account other factors (e.g. productivity-differencesacross states, climate) that may determine wages.

Credible redistributive policies and migration across US States

Does worker mobility undermine governments ability to redistribute income? Thispaper analyzes the experience of US states in the recent decades. We build a tractablemodel where both migration decisions and redistribution policies are endogenous. Wecalibrate the model to match skill premium and worker productivity at the state level,as well as the size and skill composition of migration flows. The calibrated modelis able to reproduce the large changes in skill composition as well as key qualitativerelationships of labor flows and redistribution policies observed in the data. Our resultssuggest that regional di¤erences in labor productivity are an important determinantof interstate migration. We use the calibrated model to compare the cross-section ofredistributive policies with and without worker mobility. The main result of the paperis that interstate migration has induced substantial convergence in tax rates acrossUS states, but no race to the bottom. Skill-biased in-migration has reduced the skillpremium and the need for tax-based redistribution in the states that would have hadthe highest tax rates in the absence of mobility.

The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.

What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis

This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the USusing a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. Thereare instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policyrule and the standard deviation of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification ofthe policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest,but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

Differentiation of focal liver lesions: usefulness of parametric imaging with contrast-enhanced US.

Purpose: To evaluate whether parametric imaging with contrast material-enhanced ultrasonography (US) is superior to visual assessment for the differential diagnosis of focal liver lesions (FLLs). Materials and Methods: This study had institutional review board approval, and verbal patient informed consent was obtained. Between August 2005 and October 2008, 146 FLLs in 145 patients (63 women, 82 men; mean age, 62.5 years; age range, 22-89 years) were imaged with real-time low-mechanical-index contrast-enhanced US after a bolus injection of 2.4 mL of a second-generation contrast agent. Clips showing contrast agent uptake kinetics (including arterial, portal, and late phases) were recorded and subsequently analyzed off-line with dedicated image processing software. Analysis of the dynamic vascular patterns (DVPs) of lesions with respect to adjacent parenchyma allowed mapping DVP signatures on a single parametric image. Cine loops of contrast-enhanced US and results from parametric imaging of DVP were assessed separately by three independent off-site readers who classified each lesion as benign, malignant, or indeterminate. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for both techniques. Interobserver agreement (κ statistics) was determined. Results: Sensitivities for visual interpretation of cine loops for the three readers were 85.0%, 77.9%, and 87.6%, which improved significantly to 96.5%, 97.3%, and 96.5% for parametric imaging, respectively (P < .05, McNemar test), while retaining high specificity (90.9% for all three readers). Accuracy scores of parametric imaging were higher than those of conventional contrast-enhanced US for all three readers (P < .001, McNemar test). Interobserver agreement increased with DVP parametric imaging compared with conventional contrast-enhanced US (change of κ from 0.54 to 0.99). Conclusion: Parametric imaging of DVP improves diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced US in the differentiation between malignant and benign FLLs; it also provides excellent interobserver agreement.

The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account

Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

Indentifying human capital externalities: Theory with an application to US cities

The identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood. The existing (Mincerian) approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital. As a result, it yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products. We propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward. Another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital. Applications to US cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average -schooling externalities.

Fetal MRI as complement to US in the diagnosis and characterization of anomalies of the genito-urinary tract.

The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of prenatal ultrasound (US) and prenatal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the diagnosis and characterization of congenital abnormalities of the genito-urinary tract and to determine if the additional information obtained by MRI may influence the management of the fetus. We retrospectively evaluate 15 cases of congenital genito-urinary tract anomalies detected by prenatal US and with echographic inconclusive diagnosis. We compare the MRI findings with the US findings and the final diagnosis, obtained from neonatal outcomes, imaging studies and pathology records. Fetal US diagnosis was correct in 9 cases (60%) and MRI in 13 cases (86.7%). Prenatal MRI revealed additional information to US in 9 cases (60%), which modified the initial US diagnosis in 5 cases (33.3%) and changed the therapeutic approach in 5 fetuses (33.3%). Fetal MRI was better than US in cases of oligoamnios and in fetuses with genito-urinary pathology concerning the pelvic and perineum region. We believe that MRI should be considered as a complementary diagnostic method in cases of echographic suspicion of congenital pathology of the genito-urinary tract and inconclusive prenatal US.

Issuance of patient reminders for influenza vaccination by US-based primary care physicians during the first year of universal influenza vaccination recommendations.

To estimate the number of physician-reported influenza vaccination reminders during the 2010-2011 influenza season, the first influenza season after universal vaccination recommendations for influenza were introduced, we interviewed 493 members of the Physicians Consulting Network. Patient vaccination reminders are a highly effective means of increasing influenza vaccination; nonetheless, only one quarter of the primary care physicians interviewed issued influenza vaccination reminders during the first year of universal vaccination recommendations, highlighting the need to improve office-based promotion of influenza vaccination.

Nanotechnology: What is it and how will it affect us?

A non-technical review of nanotechnology from a Catalan perspective – its potential economic and social impacts and the potential role of public policy.

Measures of health and disease in Africa: are current methods giving us useful information about trends in cardiovascular diseases?

An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius - formally part of WHO-AFRO - mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.

What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.