Modal analysis of buildings : quantification of uncertainties and model updating

Una estructura vibra con la suma de sus infinitos modos de vibración, definidos por sus parámetros modales (frecuencias naturales, formas modales y coeficientes de amortiguamiento). Estos parámetros se pueden identificar a través del Análisis Modal Operacional (OMA). Así, un equipo de investigación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ha identificado las propiedades modales de un edificio de hormigón armado en Madrid con el método Identificación de los sub-espacios estocásticos (SSI). Para completar el estudio dinámico de este edificio, se ha desarrollado un modelo de elementos finitos (FE) de este edificio de 19 plantas. Este modelo se ha calibrado a partir de su comportamiento dinámico obtenido experimentalmente a través del OMA. Los objetivos de esta tesis son; (i) identificar la estructura con varios métodos de SSI y el uso de diferentes ventanas de tiempo de tal manera que se cuantifican incertidumbres de los parámetros modales debidos al proceso de estimación, (ii) desarrollar FEM de este edificio y calibrar este modelo a partir de su comportamiento dinámico, y (iii) valorar la bondad del modelo. Los parámetros modales utilizados en esta calibración han sido; espesor de las losas, densidades de los materiales, módulos de elasticidad, dimensiones de las columnas y las condiciones de contorno de la cimentación. Se ha visto que el modelo actualizado representa el comportamiento dinámico de la estructura con una buena precisión. Por lo tanto, este modelo puede utilizarse dentro de un sistema de monitorización estructural (SHM) y para la detección de daños. En el futuro, podrá estudiar la influencia de los agentes medioambientales, tales como la temperatura o el viento, en los parámetros modales. A structure vibrates according to the sum of its vibration modes, defined by their modal parameters (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes). These parameters can be identified through Operational Modal Analysis (OMA). Thus, a research team of the Technical University of Madrid has identified the modal properties of a reinforced-concrete-frame building in Madrid using the Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) method and a time domain technique for the OMA. To complete the dynamic study of this building, a finite element model (FE) of this 19-floor building has been developed throughout this thesis. This model has been updated from its dynamic behavior identified by the OMA. The objectives of this thesis are to; (i) identify the structure with several SSI methods and using different time blocks in such a way that uncertainties due to the modal parameter estimation are quantified, (ii) develop a FEM of this building and tune this model from its dynamic behavior, and (iii) Assess the quality of the model, the modal parameters used in this updating process have been; thickness of slabs, material densities, modulus of elasticity, column dimensions and foundation boundary conditions. It has been shown that the final updated model represents the structure with a very good accuracy. Thus, this model might be used within a structural health monitoring framework (SHM). The study of the influence of changing environmental factors (such as temperature or wind) on the model parameters might be considered as a future work.

Uncertainties in estimates of fleet average fuel economy: a statistical evaluation. Final report.

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.

Impacts of budget uncertainties on Department of Energy's national laboratories [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy Development and Applications and the Subcommittee on Energy Research and Production of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, second session, June 2, 1982.

"No. 114."

The psychotogenic effects of cannabis use: challenges in reducing residual uncertainties and communicating the risks

No Abstract

From complexity to category: Responding to diagnostic uncertainties of autistic spectrum disorders

Objective: Recent data from Education Queensland has identified rising numbers of children receiving diagnoses of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD). Faced with funding diagnostic pressures, in clinical situations that are complex and inherently uncertain, it is possible that specialists err on the side of a positive diagnosis. This study examines the extent to which possible overinclusion of ASD diagnosis may exist in the presence of uncertainty and factors potentially related to this practice in Queensland. Methods: Using anonymous self-report, all Queensland child psychiatrists and paediatricians who see paediatric patients with development/behavioural problems were surveyed and asked whether they had ever specified an ASD diagnosis in the presence of diagnostic uncertainty. Using logistic regression, elicited responses to the diagnostic uncertainty questions were related to other clinical- and practice-related characteristics. Results: Overall, 58% of surveyed psychiatrists and paediatricians indicated that, in the face of diagnostic uncertainty, they had erred on the side of providing an ASD diagnosis for educational ascertainment and 36% of clinicians had provided an autism diagnosis for Carer's Allowance when Centrelink diagnostic specifications had not been met. Conclusion: In the absence of definitive biological markers, ASD remains a behavioural diagnosis that is often complex and uncertain. In response to systems that demand a categorical diagnostic response, specialists are providing ASD diagnoses, even when uncertain. The motivation for this practice appears to be a clinical risk/benefit analysis of what will achieve the best outcomes for children. It is likely that these practices will continue unless systems change eligibility to funding based on functional impairment rather than medical diagnostic categories.

The role of different sources of communication and trust in reducing change-related uncertainties during organisational change

The current paper presents a qualitadve study of the role of different sources of communicadon in reducing change-related uncertaintj' experienced by employees during organisadonal change. The paper examines the role of trust in influencing how employees' appraise informadon from different sources within organisadons. Interviews with 19 employees from a range of organisadons idendfy the different types of change-related uncertaindes experienced during change. In addidon, the different sources of communicadon utilised by employees are idendfied and the role each source plays in reducing the different t}'pes of uncertaint}' invesdgated. From employee responses it is evident that t)'pically supervisors are the best source of change informadon, while communicadon from senior management usually focuses on strategic issues. Employees indicate that communicadon with coworkers operates as a support mechanism providing an avenue to share grievances arising from the change. Finally, trust is idendfied as playing an important role in influencing who employees go to for informadon when experiencing uncertainty'. ImpUcadons for change management research in addidon to pracdcal implicadons are discussed.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Characterization of design and economic sensitivity of vapor phase carbon adsorption systems to environmental uncertainties

Vapor phase carbon adsorption systems are used to remove aromatics, aliphatics, and halogenated hydrocarbons. The adsorption capacity of granular activated carbon is reduced when environmental parameters (temperature, pressure, and humidity) interfere with homogeneous surface diffusion and pore distribution dynamics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of parametric uncertainties in adsorption efficiency. ^ Modified versions of the Langmuir isotherm in conjunction with thermodynamic equations described gaseous adsorption of single component influent onto microporous media. Experimental test results derived from Wang et al. (1999) simulated adsorption kinetics while the Myer and monsoon Langmuir constant accounted for isothermal gas compression and energetic heterogeneity under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. Responsiveness of adsorption capacity to environmental uncertainties was analyzed by statistical sensitivity and modeled by breakthrough curves. Results indicated that extensive fluctuations in adsorption capacity significantly reduced carbon consumption while isothermal variations had a pronounced effect on saturation capacity. ^

Reducing uncertainties in estimation of wind effects on tall buildings using aerodynamic wind tunnel tests

Tall buildings are wind-sensitive structures and could experience high wind-induced effects. Aerodynamic boundary layer wind tunnel testing has been the most commonly used method for estimating wind effects on tall buildings. Design wind effects on tall buildings are estimated through analytical processing of the data obtained from aerodynamic wind tunnel tests. Even though it is widely agreed that the data obtained from wind tunnel testing is fairly reliable the post-test analytical procedures are still argued to have remarkable uncertainties. This research work attempted to assess the uncertainties occurring at different stages of the post-test analytical procedures in detail and suggest improved techniques for reducing the uncertainties. Results of the study showed that traditionally used simplifying approximations, particularly in the frequency domain approach, could cause significant uncertainties in estimating aerodynamic wind-induced responses. Based on identified shortcomings, a more accurate dual aerodynamic data analysis framework which works in the frequency and time domains was developed. The comprehensive analysis framework allows estimating modal, resultant and peak values of various wind-induced responses of a tall building more accurately. Estimating design wind effects on tall buildings also requires synthesizing the wind tunnel data with local climatological data of the study site. A novel copula based approach was developed for accurately synthesizing aerodynamic and climatological data up on investigating the causes of significant uncertainties in currently used synthesizing techniques. Improvement of the new approach over the existing techniques was also illustrated with a case study on a 50 story building. At last, a practical dynamic optimization approach was suggested for tuning structural properties of tall buildings towards attaining optimum performance against wind loads with less number of design iterations.

Assessing consistency of fish survey data : uncertainties in the estimation of mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) abundance at South Georgia

Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank the crews, fishermen and scientists who conducted the various surveys from which data were obtained, and Mark Belchier and Simeon Hill for their contributions. This work was supported by the Government of South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands. Additional logistical support provided by The South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute with thanks to Paul Brickle. Thanks to Stephen Smith of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for help in constructing bootstrap confidence limits. Paul Fernandes receives funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland), and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. We also wish to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this manuscript.

How to deal with uncertainties regarding the occupational exposure to antineoplastic mixtures: additive effect should always be considered?

Risk assessment considerations - The concept that “safe levels of exposure” for humans can be identified for individual chemicals is central to the risk assessment of compounds with known toxicological profiles. Selection of agents for combination chemotherapy regimens involves minimize overlapping of mechanisms of action, antitumor activity and toxicity profile. Although the toxicological profile and mechanism of action of each individual drug is well characterized, the toxicological interactions between drugs are likely, but poorly established at occupational exposure context. The synergistic nature of interactions may help in understanding the adverse health effects observed in healthcare workers, where exposure situations are characterized by complex mixtures of chemical agents, and the levels of individual exposing agents are often not sufficiently high to explain the health complaints. However, if a substance is a genotoxic carcinogen, this would be the “lead effect”; normally, no OEL based on a NOEL would be derived and the level would be set so low that it would be unlikely that other effects would be expected. Aim of the study - Recently research project developed in Portuguese Hospitals characterize the occupational exposure to antineoplastic agents and the health effects related. The project aimed to assess exposure of the different risk groups that handle antineoplastic agents in the hospital setting, namely during preparation and administration of these drugs. Here it is presented and discussed the results in a study developed in two hospitals from Lisbon.

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.