The role of U.S. timberland in real estate portfolios

Timberland is seen as a long-term investment which has recently received increased institutional investor attention in many countries and potentially provides added value in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) timberland series, this paper analyses the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of timberland in the United States over the period of 1987-2007. U.S. timberland is seen to have been a strongly performed asset class with significant portfolio diversification benefits over this period; with a significant portfolio role separate to that of real estate. However, recent years have seen reduced risk-adjusted returns, with some loss of portfolio diversification benefits of timberland with stocks and real estate. Global drivers are likely to see increased future demand for timberland investment.

The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

Saturated core high-temperature superconducting fault current limiters as an alternative to conventional series reactors in a distribution grid

Series reactors are used in distribution grids to reduce the short-circuit fault level. Some of the disadvantages of the application of these devices are the voltage drop produced across the reactor and the steep front rise of the transient recovery voltage (TRV), which generally exceeds the rating of the associated circuit breaker. Simulations were performed to compare the characteristics of a saturated core High-Temperature Superconducting Fault Current Limiter (HTS FCL) and a series reactor. The design of the HTS FCL was optimized using the evolutionary algorithm. The resulting Pareto frontier curve of optimum solution is presented in this paper. The results show that the steady-state impedance of an HTS FCL is significantly lower than that of a series reactor for the same level of fault current limiting. Tests performed on a prototype 11 kV HTS FCL confirm the theoretical results. The respective transient recovery voltages (TRV) of the HTS FCL and an air core reactor of comparable fault current limiting capability are also determined. The results show that the saturated core HTS FCL has a significantly lower effect on the rate of rise of the circuit breaker TRV as compared to the air core reactor. The simulations results are validated with shortcircuit test results.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

A single institution experience of streptozocin/fluorouracil combination chemotherapy : a case series

Background The combination chemotherapy regimen of streptozocin and 5-fluorouracil (FU/STZ) has been used for the treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumours. Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the use of this regimen in a tertiary oncology referral centre over a 10-year period. Method We retrospectively analysed nine cases from February 2000 to May 2010. Patient demographics, chemotherapy schedule, toxicities, progression-free and overall survival were tabulated for each patient. Result The median progression-free survival was 17 months (range 3-48+ months), and overall survival 31 months (range 12-53+ months) with no toxicity related deaths. Conclusion FU/STZ was a well-tolerated regimen that produced significant benefit in the setting of metastatic and progressive disease. Our case series demonstrated comparable progression-free survival and overall survival in relation to randomized controlled studies and previous case series. © Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland 2011.

Geologic map of the Valley Mountain 15’ quadrangle, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California: U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Quadrangle Map GQ–1767, scale 1:62,500

The Valley Mountain 15’ quadrangle straddles the Pinto Mountain Fault, which bounds the eastern Transverse Ranges in the south against the Mojave Desert province in the north. The Pinto Mountains, part of the eastern Transverse Ranges in the south part of the quadrangle expose a series of Paleoproterozoic gneisses and granite and the Proterozoic quartzite of Pinto Mountain. Early Triassic quartz monzonite intruded the gneisses and was ductiley deformed prior to voluminous Jurassic intrusion of diorite, granodiorite, quartz monzonite, and granite plutons. The Jurassic rocks include part of the Bullion Mountains Intrusive Suite, which crops out prominently at Valley Mountain and in the Bullion Mountains, as well as in the Pinto Mountains. Jurassic plutons in the southwest part of the quadrangle are deeply denuded from midcrustal emplacement levels in contrast to supracrustal Jurassic limestone and volcanic rocks exposed in the northeast. Dikes inferred to be part of the Jurassic Independence Dike Swarm intrude the Jurassic plutons and Proterozoic rocks. Late Cretaceous intrusion of the Cadiz Valley Batholith in the northeast caused contact metamorphism of adjacent Jurassic plutonic rocks...

Tests on price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets

We tested the price linkage, the law of one price (LOP) condition, and the causality of the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets with consideration of structural breaks in the price series. The LOP condition did not hold for both the gold and silver markets when structural breaks were not considered but it sustained in some periods when it was tested for the break periods. We found from the causality test that the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets were led by the U.S. market.

Investigating the genetic association between ERAP1 and ankylosing spondylitis

A strong association between ERAP1 and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) was recently identified by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium and the Australo-Anglo-American Spondylitis Consortium (WTCCC-TASC) study. ERAP1 is highly polymorphic with strong linkage disequilibrium evident across the gene. We therefore conducted a series of experiments to try to identify the primary genetic association(s) with ERAP1. We replicated the original associations in an independent set of 730 patients and 1021 controls, resequenced ERAP1 to define the full extent of coding polymorphisms and tested all variants in additional association studies. The genetic association with ERAP1 was independently confirmed; the strongest association was with rs30187 in the replication set (P = 3.4 × 103). When the data were combined with the original WTCCC-TASC study the strongest association was with rs27044 (P = 1.1 × 10-9). We identified 33 sequence polymorphisms in ERAP1, including three novel and eight known non-synonymous polymorphisms. We report several new associations between AS and polymorphisms distributed across ERAP1 from the extended case-control study, the most significant of which was with rs27434 (P = 4.7 × 10-7). Regression analysis failed to identify a primary association clearly; we therefore used data from HapMap to impute genotypes for an additional 205 non-coding SNPs located within and adjacent to ERAP1. A number of highly significant associations (P < 5 × 10-9) were identified in regulatory sequences which are good candidates for causing susceptibility to AS, possibly by regulating ERAP1 expression. © 2009 The Author(s).

Business busts and U.S. auditors' interest in fraud detection: Evidence from the 20th century

We find evidence that U.S. auditors increased their attention to fraud detection during or immediately after the economic contractions of the 20th century, based on a content analysis of the 12 volumes of the 20th-century auditing reference series Montgomery’s Auditing. Contractions, however, do not seem to have affected auditors’ attention to the formal goal of fraud detection. The study suggests that auditors’ aversion to the heightened risks of fraud during economic downturns leads them to focus more on fraud detection at those times regardless of the particular guidance in formal audit standards. This study is the first to find some evidence of a recession-influenced difference between fraud detection practices and formal fraud detection goals.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Neoarchean sanukitoid series in the Karelian Province, Finland

Sanukitoid series intrusions can be found throughout the Archean Karelian Province of the Fennoscandian shield. All sanukitoids share the same controversial elemental characteristics: they have high content of incompatible elements such as K, Ba, and Sr as well as high content of the compatible elements Mg, Cr, and Ni, and high Mg#. This composition is explained by an enriched mantle wedge origin in a Neoarchean subduction setting. This study concentrates on sanukitoid intrusions and tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite series (TTGs) from Finnish part of the Karelian Province. The collected rock samples have been studied in the field and under microscope as well as for their whole-rock (including isotopes) and mineral compositions. The new data together with previously published analyses help us to better understand the petrogenesis, tectonic setting and reworking of the Archean rock units. TTGs from the Karelian Province form a voluminous series of granitoids and reworked migmatites. This study divides TTG series into two subgroups based on their elemental composition: low-HREE (heavy rare earth element) TTGs and high-HREE TTGs indicating pressure differences in their source. Sanukitoid series is a minor, divergent group of intrusions. These intrusions are variable sized, and the texture varies from even-grained to K-feldspar porphyritic. The elemental composition differentiates sanukitoids from more voluminous TTG groups, the SiO2 in sanukitoids varies to include series of gabbro, diorite, and granodiorite. U Pb age determinations from sanukitoid series show temporally limited emplacement between ~ 2745 2715 Ma after the main crust forming period in the area. Hafnium, neodymium, common lead, and oxygene isotopes indicate well homogenized characteristics. Recycled crust has made a variable, yet minor, contribution to sanukitoids, as evidenced by oxygene isotopes and inherited zircon cores. A proposed tectonic setting for the formation of the sanukitoid series is slab breakoff of oceanic lithosphere in subduction setting, with sanukitoids deriving from an enriched mantle wedge. The proposed setting explains some of the peculiar features of sanukitoids, such as their temporally limited occurrence and controversial elemental composition. Sanukitoids would occur after cessation of the regional growth of Archean crust, and they could be derived from mantle wedge previously enriched by melts and fluids from oceanic crust and sediments. A subsequent event during the Paleoproterozoic Svecofennian orogeny at ~1.9 Ga affected the appearance and microstructures of the rocks as well as caused redistribution of lead between minerals and whole rock. However, the deformation was not able to obliterate the original geochemical characteristics of these sanukitoids.

La erodabilidad de cuatro series de suelos determinada por el mini-simulador de lluvia y el nomograma de Wischmeier

Se realizó un estudio con el propósito de obtener información acerca de le Erodabilidad del suelo, así como distinguir un método confiable y sencillo pera la determinación de ésta. Se seleccionaron cuatro Series de suelos (San Ignacio, Nejapa, Esquipulas y Zambrano), ubicadas en le Cuenca Sur del Lago de Managua, en base a una recopilación de información existente (topografía, reconocimiento y caracterización del terreno), se procedió a obtener les pérdidas de suelo, escurrimiento superficial, concentración de sedimentos y el Índice de Erodabilidad de cada Serie de suelos, por medio de un Mini-simulador de lluvia de Erodabilidad por Kamphorst (1987). El factor de erodabilidad (K) se obtuvo a través de cuatro propiedades del suelo (textura, materia orgánica, estructura y permeabilidad), cuyos valores son introducidos en el Nomograma de Wischmeier (1971). Una vez obtenidos los Índices de erodabilidad (I.K.) y Factor de erodabilidad (K) se determinó que las cuatro Series muestran diferentes grados de susceptibilidad e le erosión. Además, las pérdidas de suelo, escurrimiento superficial, concentración de sedimentos, el índice de erodabilidad y el Factor de erodabilidad son influenciadas por la materia orgánica. Así también se comprobó que el comparar el Índice y el Factor de erodabilidad, tienen un alto valor de correlación. Se pudo observar que le textura no tiene una influencia directa sobre les pérdidas de suelo, escurrimiento superficial, Índice de erodabilidad y Factor de erodabilidad.

Fish assemblages and benthic habitats of Buck Island Reef National Monument (St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands) and the surrounding seascape: A characterization of spatial and temporal patterns

Since 1999, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch of the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment (CCMA-BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment around northeastern St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. This effort is part of the broader NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program’s (CRCP) National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program (NCREMP). With support from CRCP’s NCREMP, CCMA conducts the “Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring project” (CREM) with goals to: (1) spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance, and size of marine fauna associated with shallow water coral reef seascapes (mosaics of coral reefs, seagrasses, sand and mangroves); (2) relate this information to in situ fine-scale habitat data and the spatial distribution and diversity of habitat types using benthic habitat maps; (3) use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting; (4) establish the efficacy of those management decisions; and (5) develop data collection and data management protocols. The monitoring effort in northeastern St. Croix was conducted through partnerships with the National Park Service (NPS) and the Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources (VI-DPNR). The geographical focal point of the research is Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), a protected area originally established in 1961 and greatly expanded in 2001; however, the work also encompassed a large portion of the recently created St. Croix East End Marine Park (EEMP). Project funding is primarily provided by NOAA CRCP, CCMA and NPS. In recent decades, scientific and non-scientific observations have indicated that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystem around northeastern St. Croix have been adversely impacted by a wide range of environmental stressors. The major stressors have included the mass Diadema die off in the early 1980s, a series of hurricanes beginning with Hurricane Hugo in 1989, overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events, with the most severe mass bleaching episode in 2005. The area is also an important recreational resource supporting boating, snorkeling, diving and other water based activities. With so many potential threats to the marine ecosystem and a dramatic change in management strategy in 2003 when the park’s Interim Regulations (Presidential Proclamation No. 7392) established BIRNM as one of the first fully protected marine areas in NPS system, it became critical to identify existing marine fauna and their spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. This provides ecologically meaningful data to assess ecosystem condition, support decision making in spatial planning (including the evaluation of efficacy of current management strategies) and determine future information needs. The ultimate goal of the work is to better understand the coral reef ecosystems and to provide information toward protecting and enhancing coral reef ecosystems for the benefit of the system itself and to sustain the many goods and services that it offers society. This Technical Memorandum contains analysis of the first six years of fish survey data (2001-2006) and associated characterization of the benthos (1999-2006). The primary objectives were to quantify changes in fish species and assemblage diversity, abundance, biomass and size structure and to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of key species or groups of species and to compare community structure inside (protected) versus outside (fished) areas of BIRNM. (PDF contains 100 pages).

Reconstructing an 83-Year Time Series of Daily Sea Surface Temperature at Pacific Grove, California

Daily sea surface temperatures have been acquired at the Hopkins Marine Station in Pacific Grove, California since January 20, 1919.This time series is one of the longest oceanographic records along the U.S. west coast. Because of its length it is well-suited for studying climate-related and oceanic variability on interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales. The record, however, is not homogeneous, has numerous gaps, contains possible outliers, and the observations were not always collected at the same time each day. Because of these problems we have undertaken the task of reconstructing this long and unique series. We describe the steps that were taken and the methods that were used in this reconstruction. Although the methods employed are basic, we believe that they are consistent with the quality of the data. The reconstructed record has values at every time point, original, or estimated, and has been adjusted for time-of-day variations where this information was available. Possible outliers have also been examined and replaced where their credibility could not be established. Many of the studies that have employed the Hopkins time series have not discussed the issue of data quality and how these problems were addressed. Because of growing interest in this record, it is important that a single, well-documented version be adopted, so that the results of future analyses can be directly compared. Although additional work may be done to further improve the quality of this record, it is now available via the internet. [PDF contains 48 pages]