A two-stage economic succession at the inception of farming in central Portugal. Preliminary examination of possible causes and consequences

[EN]Notwithstanding their scarcity and uneven distribution, zooarchaeological and stable isotope data sets on the Early and Middle Neolithic (5500–3200 cal BC) in the region of Estremadura in Central Portugal strongly suggest that two succeeding stages in subsistence strategies took place: sheep and goat itinerant pastoralism (across large areas) and/or renewed focus on wild food sources (cervid hunting, harvesting marine and freshwater food) which replaced livestock farming within smaller areas and less specialised hunting practices. This economic shift seems to have coincided with two other dramatic changes: the 5.9 kyr cal BP climate event and the onset of megalithism. Possible correlations between these past cultural and palaeoenvironmental phenomena are herein preliminarily outlined. [ES] A pesar de su escasez y distribución desigual, el conjunto de datos arqueozoológicos y de isótopos estables para el Neolítico Antiguo y Medio de la región de Estremadura en el centro de Portugal (5500-3200 a. C. cal), sugiere con claridad dos etapas sucesivas en las estrategias de subsistencia: pastoreo itinerante de ovejas y cabras (ocupando grandes territorios) y/o un renovado interés por los recursos alimenticios silvestres (caza de cérvidos, recolección de alimentos marinos y de agua dulce), que reemplazó otras formas de ganadería más confinadas en el espacio acciones con regímenes de mantenimiento reducidos y unas prácticas de caza menos especializadas. Este cambio económico parece haber ocurrido junto con otros dos cambios dramáticos, el evento climático 5.9 k BP (cal.) y el inicio del megalitismo. Aquí se esbozan de forma preliminar las posibles correlaciones entre estos fenómenos culturales y paleoambientales del pasado.

Two fluid numerical model for coastal applications

Wave breaking is an important coastal process, influencing hydro-morphodynamic processes such as turbulence generation and wave energy dissipation, run-up on the beach and overtopping of coastal defence structures. During breaking, waves are complex mixtures of air and water (“white water”) whose properties affect velocity and pressure fields in the vicinity of the free surface and, depending on the breaker characteristics, different mechanisms for air entrainment are usually observed. Several laboratory experiments have been performed to investigate the role of air bubbles in the wave breaking process (Chanson & Cummings, 1994, among others) and in wave loading on vertical wall (Oumeraci et al., 2001; Peregrine et al., 2006, among others), showing that the air phase is not negligible since the turbulent energy dissipation involves air-water mixture. The recent advancement of numerical models has given valuable insights in the knowledge of wave transformation and interaction with coastal structures. Among these models, some solve the RANS equations coupled with a free-surface tracking algorithm and describe velocity, pressure, turbulence and vorticity fields (Lara et al. 2006 a-b, Clementi et al., 2007). The single-phase numerical model, in which the constitutive equations are solved only for the liquid phase, neglects effects induced by air movement and trapped air bubbles in water. Numerical approximations at the free surface may induce errors in predicting breaking point and wave height and moreover, entrapped air bubbles and water splash in air are not properly represented. The aim of the present thesis is to develop a new two-phase model called COBRAS2 (stands for Cornell Breaking waves And Structures 2 phases), that is the enhancement of the single-phase code COBRAS0, originally developed at Cornell University (Lin & Liu, 1998). In the first part of the work, both fluids are considered as incompressible, while the second part will treat air compressibility modelling. The mathematical formulation and the numerical resolution of the governing equations of COBRAS2 are derived and some model-experiment comparisons are shown. In particular, validation tests are performed in order to prove model stability and accuracy. The simulation of the rising of a large air bubble in an otherwise quiescent water pool reveals the model capability to reproduce the process physics in a realistic way. Analytical solutions for stationary and internal waves are compared with corresponding numerical results, in order to test processes involving wide range of density difference. Waves induced by dam-break in different scenarios (on dry and wet beds, as well as on a ramp) are studied, focusing on the role of air as the medium in which the water wave propagates and on the numerical representation of bubble dynamics. Simulations of solitary and regular waves, characterized by both spilling and plunging breakers, are analyzed with comparisons with experimental data and other numerical model in order to investigate air influence on wave breaking mechanisms and underline model capability and accuracy. Finally, modelling of air compressibility is included in the new developed model and is validated, revealing an accurate reproduction of processes. Some preliminary tests on wave impact on vertical walls are performed: since air flow modelling allows to have a more realistic reproduction of breaking wave propagation, the dependence of wave breaker shapes and aeration characteristics on impact pressure values is studied and, on the basis of a qualitative comparison with experimental observations, the numerical simulations achieve good results.

Simultaneous bilateral hip replacement reveals superior outcome and fewer complications than two-stage procedures: a prospective study including 1819 patients and 5801 follow-ups from a total joint replacement registry

Background Total joint replacements represent a considerable part of day-to-day orthopaedic routine and a substantial proportion of patients undergoing unilateral total hip arthroplasty require a contralateral treatment after the first operation. This report compares complications and functional outcome of simultaneous versus early and delayed two-stage bilateral THA over a five-year follow-up period. Methods The study is a post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data in the framework of the European IDES hip registry. The database query resulted in 1819 patients with 5801 follow-ups treated with bilateral THA between 1965 and 2002. According to the timing of the two operations the sample was divided into three groups: I) 247 patients with simultaneous bilateral THA, II) 737 patients with two-stage bilateral THA within six months, III) 835 patients with two-stage bilateral THA between six months and five years. Results Whereas postoperative hip pain and flexion did not differ between the groups, the best walking capacity was observed in group I and the worst in group III. The rate of intraoperative complications in the first group was comparable to that of the second. The frequency of postoperative local and systemic complication in group I was the lowest of the three groups. The highest rate of complications was observed in group III. Conclusions From the point of view of possible intra- and postoperative complications, one-stage bilateral THA is equally safe or safer than two-stage interventions. Additionally, from an outcome perspective the one-stage procedure can be considered to be advantageous.

An intraoperatively moulded PMMA prostheses like spacer for two-stage revision of infected total knee arthroplasty

We report a series of 16 consecutive total knee arthroplasty (TKA) revision procedures for deep infection, treated with a newly developed intraoperatively moulded PMMA cement-prostheses-like spacer (CPLS). The standard treatment consisted of a two-stage protocol with initial explantation of the infected components combined with radical debridement, followed by implantation of a temporary cement spacer and final reimplantation of a new TKA. A sterilizeable Teflon tapered aluminium mould was developed for production of a custom made CPLS during the intervention. Stable implantation of the CPLS was achieved with a second cementation, allowing for correct alignment and ligament balancing. The spacer remained 3.5 months on average until reimplantation of a TKA occurred. At time of reimplantation, patients had an average KSS score of 84.44 points with an average flexion capacity of 102°. There was no recurrent infection during the study period of minimum 2 years. With this new technique, a low friction articulation with good stability, high comfort and a better range of motion compared to handcrafted spacers was achieved. The use of this spacer is a time sparing, cheap and convenient option in 2-stage TKA revision.

Response Bias Using Two-Stage Data Collection: A study of elderly participants in a program.

Researchers examining the effects of programs, in this case a state-level pharmaceutical assistance program for the elderly, sometimes must rely on multiple methods of data collection. Two-stage data collection (e.g., a telephone interview followed by a mail questionnaire) was used to obtain a full range of information. Older age groups were found to participate less frequently in the telephone interview, while certain demographic factors characterized mail questionnaire nonparticipants, all of which supports past research. Results also show that those in the poorest health are less likely to participate in the mail survey. Combining the two methods did not result in high attrition, suggesting that innovation can be successfully employed. Knowledge of the bias associated with each method will aid in targeting special groups.

"Rapid two-stage" Norwood operation in a child with multiorgan failure

The Norwood I operation continues to be a procedure with significant operative mortality. One well-accepted risk factor for death after the first step of the Norwood operation is critical preoperative status. We describe herein a new concept for the treatment of patients with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) in very poor preoperative condition. This is a case report of a child who was born in a rural hospital. On the second day of life he was referred to our center in multiorgan failure. There were signs of liver dysfunction and the child was anuric. Therapy was started immediately with prostaglandin and vasodilators as well as diuretics, milrinone, and dobutamine. However, systemic perfusion continued to be insufficient. Finally, the child was placed on a ventilator. On the fourth day of life, bilateral pulmonary artery (PA) banding was performed and circulation stabilized immediately. Two hours after the operation urine output started. Liver function stabilized over the next couple of days. Two days after PA banding the child was weaned from the ventilator. On the 12th day of life a Norwood operation with PA debanding and a right ventricle-PA conduit was performed, and 2 days postoperatively the child was weaned from the ventilator. Twenty days after the operation he was discharged home. When the boy was 4 months old a bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis was performed. In selected cases of patients with HLHS with very poor hemodynamic conditions, a rapid two-stage approach with bilateral banding followed by a Norwood operation after cardiac stabilization can be recommended.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

A TWO-STAGE MICROBIAL FUEL CELL SYSTEM TO CONVERT SOLID ORGANIC WASTE TO ELECTRICITY

Microbial fuel cell (MFC) research has focused mostly on producing electricity using soluble organic and inorganic substrates. This study focused on converting solid organic waste into electricity using a two-stage MFC process. In the first stage, a hydrolysis reactor produced soluble organic substrates from solid organic waste. The soluble substrates from the hydrolysis reactor were pumped to the second stage reactor: a continuous-flow, air-cathode MFC. Maximum power output (Pmax) of the MFC was 296 mW/m3 at a current density of 25.4 mA/m2 while being fed only leachate from the first stage reactor. Addition of phosphate buffer increased Pmax to 1,470 mW/m3 (89.4 mA/m2), although this result could not be duplicated with repeated polarization testing. The minimum internal resistance achieved was 77 Omega with leachate feed and 17 Omega with phosphate buffer. The low coulombic efficiency (

Steady streaming in a two-dimensional box model of a passive cochlea

Acoustic stimulation of the cochlea leads to a travelling wave in the cochlear fluids and on the basilar membrane (BM). It has long been suspected that this travelling wave leads to a steady streaming flow in the cochlea. Theoretical investigations suggested that the steady streaming might be of physiological relevance. Here, we present a quantitative study of the steady streaming in a computational model of a passive cochlea. The structure of the streaming flow is illustrated and the sources of streaming are closely investigated. We describe a source of streaming which has not been considered in the cochlea by previous authors. This source is also related to a steady axial displacement of the BM which leads to a local stretching of this compliant structure. We present theoretical predictions for the streaming intensity which account for these new phenomena. It is shown that these predictions compare well with our numerical results and that there may be steady streaming velocities of the order of millimetres per second. Our results indicate that steady streaming should be more relevant to low-frequency hearing because the strength of the streaming flow rapidly decreases for higher frequencies.

Screening for Rheumatic Heart Disease among Peruvian Children: A Two-Stage Sampling Observational Study.

BACKGROUND The objective of the study was to evaluate the implications of different classifications of rheumatic heart disease on estimated prevalence, and to systematically assess the importance of incidental findings from echocardiographic screening among schoolchildren in Peru. METHODS We performed a cluster randomized observational survey using portable echocardiography among schoolchildren aged 5 to 16 years from randomly selected public and private schools in Arequipa, Peru. Rheumatic heart disease was defined according to the modified World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and the World Heart Federation (WHF) criteria. FINDINGS Among 1395 eligible students from 40 classes and 20 schools, 1023 (73%) participated in the present survey. The median age of the children was 11 years (interquartile range [IQR] 8-13 years) and 50% were girls. Prevalence of possible, probable and definite rheumatic heart disease according to the modified WHO criteria amounted to 19.7/1000 children and ranged from 10.2/1000 among children 5 to 8 years of age to 39.8/1000 among children 13 to 16 years of age; the prevalence of borderline/definite rheumatic heart disease according to the WHF criteria was 3.9/1000 children. 21 children (2.1%) were found to have congenital heart disease, 8 of which were referred for percutaneous or surgical intervention. CONCLUSIONS Prevalence of RHD in Peru was considerably lower compared to endemic regions in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania; and paralleled by a comparable number of undetected congenital heart disease. Strategies to address collateral findings from echocardiographic screening are necessary in the setup of active surveillance programs for RHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02353663.

One-stage (Warsaw) and two-stage (Oslo) repair of unilateral cleft lip and palate: Craniofacial outcomes

The aim of this study was to compare facial development in subjects with complete unilateral cleft lip and palate (CUCLP) treated with two different surgical protocols. Lateral cephalometric radiographs of 61 patients (42 boys, 19 girls; mean age, 10.9 years; SD, 1) treated consecutively in Warsaw with one-stage repair and 61 age-matched and sex-matched patients treated in Oslo with two-stage surgery were selected to evaluate craniofacial morphology. On each radiograph 13 angular and two ratio variables were measured in order to describe hard and soft tissues of the facial region. The analysis showed that differences between the groups were limited to hard tissues – the maxillary prominence in subjects from the Warsaw group was decreased by almost 4° in comparison with the Oslo group (sella-nasion-A-point (SNA) = 75.3° and 79.1°, respectively) and maxillo-mandibular morphology was less favorable in the Warsaw group than the Oslo group (ANB angle = 0.8° and 2.8°, respectively). The soft tissue contour was comparable in both groups. In conclusion, inter-group differences suggest a more favorable outcome in the Oslo group. However, the distinctiveness of facial morphology in background populations (ie, in Poles and Norwegians) could have contributed to the observed results.