A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Field test of a model of migration of moths (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in inland Australia

A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.

Simulation of interface states effect on the scanning capacitance microscopy measurement of p-n junctions

A two-dimensional numerical simulation model of interface states in scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM) measurements of p-n junctions is presented-In the model, amphoteric interface states with two transition energies in the Si band gap are represented as fixed charges to account for their behavior in SCM measurements. The interface states are shown to cause a stretch-out-and a parallel shift of the capacitance-voltage characteristics in the depletion. and neutral regions of p-n junctions, respectively. This explains the discrepancy between - the SCM measurement and simulation near p-n junctions, and thus modeling interface states is crucial for SCM dopant profiling of p-n junctions. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Simulating growth, development, and yield of tillering pearl millet. III. Biomass accumulation and partitioning

Pearl millet landraces from Rajasthan, India, yield significantly less than improved cultivars under optimum growing conditions, but not under stressed conditions. To successfully develop a simulation model for pearl millet, capable of capturing such genotype x environment (G x E) interactions for grain yield, we need to understand the causes of the observed yield interaction. The aim of this paper is to quantify the key parameters that determine the accumulation and partitioning of biomass: the,light extinction coefficient, radiation use efficiency (RUE), pattern of dry matter allocation to the leaf blades, the determination of grain number, and the rate and duration of dry matter accumulation into individual grains. We used data on improved cultivars and landraces, obtained from both published and unpublished sources collected at ICRISAT, Patancheru, India. Where possible, the effects of cultivar and axis (main shoot vs. tillers) on these parameters were analysed, as previous research suggested that G x E interactions for grain yield are associated with differences in tillering habit. Our results indicated there were no cultivar differences in extinction coefficient, RUE, and biomass partitioning before anthesis, and differences between axes in biomass partitioning were negligible. This indicates there was no basis for cultivar differences in the potential grain yield. Landraces, however, produced consistently less grain yield for a given rate of dry matter accumulation at anthesis than did improved cultivars. This was caused by a combination of low grain number and small grain size. The latter was predominantly due to a lower grain growth rate, as genotypic differences in the duration of grain filling were relatively small. Main shoot and tillers also had a similar duration of grain filling. The low grain yield of the landraces was associated with profuse nodal tillering, supporting the hypothesis that grain yield was below the potential yield that could be supported by assimilate availability. We hypothesise this is a survival strategy, which enhances the prospects to escape the effects of stress around anthesis. (C) 2002 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Simulation supplements field studies to determine no-till dryland corn population recommendations for semiarid western Nebraska

In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Characterizing the timing behaviour of power-line communication by means of simulation

Although power-line communication (PLC) is not a new technology, its use to support communication with timing requirements is still the focus of ongoing research. Recently, a new infrastructure was presented, intended for communication using power lines from a central location to geographically dispersed nodes using inexpensive devices. This new infrastructure uses a two-level hierarchical power-line system, together with an IP-based network. Within this infrastructure, in order to provide end-toend communication through the two levels of the powerline system, it is necessary to fully understand the behaviour of the underlying network layers. The masterslave behaviour of the PLC MAC, together with the inherent dynamic topology of power-line networks are important issues that must be fully characterised. Therefore, in this paper we present a simulation model which is being used to study and characterise the behaviour of power-line communication.

Simulation study of energy efficient scheduling for IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee cluster-treeWireless Sensor Networks with time-bounded data flows

The simulation analysis is important approach to developing and evaluating the systems in terms of development time and cost. This paper demonstrates the application of Time Division Cluster Scheduling (TDCS) tool for the configuration of IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee beaconenabled cluster-tree WSNs using the simulation analysis, as an illustrative example that confirms the practical applicability of the tool. The simulation study analyses how the number of retransmissions impacts the reliability of data transmission, the energy consumption of the nodes and the end-to-end communication delay, based on the simulation model that was implemented in the Opnet Modeler. The configuration parameters of the network are obtained directly from the TDCS tool. The simulation results show that the number of retransmissions impacts the reliability, the energy consumption and the end-to-end delay, in a way that improving the one may degrade the others.

A comprehensive simulation study of slotted CSMA/CA for IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

In this paper, we analyze the performance limits of the slotted CSMA/CA mechanism of IEEE 802.15.4 in the beacon-enabled mode for broadcast transmissions in WSNs. The motivation for evaluating the beacon-enabled mode is due to its flexibility for WSN applications as compared to the non-beacon enabled mode. Our analysis is based on an accurate simulation model of the slotted CSMA/CA mechanism on top of a realistic physical layer, with respect to the IEEE 802.15.4 standard specification. The performance of the slotted CSMA/CA is evaluated and analyzed for different network settings to understand the impact of the protocol attributes (superframe order, beacon order and backoff exponent) on the network performance, namely in terms of throughput (S), average delay (D) and probability of success (Ps). We introduce the concept of utility (U) as a combination of two or more metrics, to determine the best offered load range for an optimal behavior of the network. We show that the optimal network performance using slotted CSMA/CA occurs in the range of 35% to 60% with respect to an utility function proportional to the network throughput (S) divided by the average delay (D).

The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

A GIS extension model to calculate urban heat island intensity based on urban geometry

This paper presents a simulation model, which was incorporated into a Geographic Information System (GIS), in order to calculate the maximum intensity of urban heat islands based on urban geometry data. The method-ology of this study stands on a theoretical-numerical basis (Okeâ s model), followed by the study and selection of existing GIS tools, the design of the calculation model, the incorporation of the resulting algorithm into the GIS platform and the application of the tool, developed as exemplification. The developed tool will help researchers to simulate UHI in different urban scenarios.

Numerical simulation of the reflow soldering process

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Mechanical Engineering

Cell-based computational modeling of vascular morphogenesis using Tissue Simulation Toolkit.

Computational modeling has become a widely used tool for unraveling the mechanisms of higher level cooperative cell behavior during vascular morphogenesis. However, experimenting with published simulation models or adding new assumptions to those models can be daunting for novice and even for experienced computational scientists. Here, we present a step-by-step, practical tutorial for building cell-based simulations of vascular morphogenesis using the Tissue Simulation Toolkit (TST). The TST is a freely available, open-source C++ library for developing simulations with the two-dimensional cellular Potts model, a stochastic, agent-based framework to simulate collective cell behavior. We will show the basic use of the TST to simulate and experiment with published simulations of vascular network formation. Then, we will present step-by-step instructions and explanations for building a recent simulation model of tumor angiogenesis. Demonstrated mechanisms include cell-cell adhesion, chemotaxis, cell elongation, haptotaxis, and haptokinesis.