Institutional investors: arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers?

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make positive profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.

Paracoccidioidomycosis-related mortality trend, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a study using multiple causes of death

Objective. To investigate mortality in which paracoccidioidomycosis appears on any line or part of the death certificate. Method. Mortality data for 1985-2005 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Standardized mortality coefficients were calculated for paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death and as an associated cause-of-death, as well as for the total number of times paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned on the death certificates. Results. During this 21-year period, there were 1950 deaths related to paracoccidioidomycosis; the disease was the underlying cause-of-death in 1 164 cases (59.69%) and an associated cause-of-death in 786 (40.31%). Between 1985 and 2005 records show a 59.8% decline in the mortality coefficient due to paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause and a 53.0% decline in the mortality as associated cause. The largest number of deaths occurred among men, in the older age groups, and among rural workers, with an upward trend in winter months. The main causes associated with paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death were pulmonary fibrosis, chronic lower respiratory tract diseases, and pneumonias. Malignant neoplasms and AIDS were the main underlying causes when paracoccidioidomycosis was an associated cause-of-death. The decision tables had to be adapted for the automated processing of causes of death in death certificates where paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned. Conclusions. Using the multiple cause-of-death method together with the traditional underlying cause-of-death approach provides a new angle on research aimed at broadening our understanding of the natural history of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Universal trend for heavy-ion total reaction cross-sections at energies above the Coulomb barrier

Heavy-ion total reaction cross-section measurements for more than 1100 reaction cases covering 61 target nuclei in the range (6)Li-(238)U and 158 projectile nuclei from (2)H to (84)Kr (mostly exotic ones) have been analyzed in a systematic way by using an empirical, three-parameter formula that is applicable to the cases of projectile kinetic energies above the Coulomb barrier. The analysis has shown that the average total nuclear binding energy per nucleon of the interacting nuclei and their radii are the chief quantities that describe the cross-section patterns. A great amount of cross-section data (87%) has been quite satisfactorily reproduced by the proposed formula; therefore, the total reaction cross-section predictions for new, not yet experimentally investigated reaction cases can be obtained within 25% (or much less) uncertainty.

Projecting the trend in the Canadian gender wage gap 2001-2031: will an increase in female education acquisition and commitment be enough?

The paper projects the gender wage gap for 25-64 year-olds in Canada over the period 2001-2031. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics together with Statistics Canada demographic projections. The methodology combines the population projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of human capital skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The projections suggest continued gender wage convergence produced by changing skills characteristics. However, a substantial pay gap will remain in 2031.

The successful school: a genuine trend or a statistical artifice?

Schools are increasingly being expected to make improvements based on data about students' learning outcomes. Such an expectation implies that principals, teachers and key personnel within systems can read and act upon the data available. There is evidence, however, that many people have poor understanding of statistical information, and that many factors inside and outside the school have an effect on students' outcomes. This study considers one primary school's data from statewide testing programs. Trends across time are considered as a basis for making judgments about the school's performance in improving students' learning outcomes in literacy and numeracy.

Do permanent shocks explain income levels? a common cycle-common trend analysis of regional income levels for China

In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.

Random walk versus multiple trend breaks in stock prices : evidence from 15 European markets

This letter extends research reported in Narayan and Smyth (2005) by employing multiple trend break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for 15 European stock market indices. The results provide strong support for the view that stock prices are characterized by a random walk.

Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests

This paper provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis in G7 stock price indices using unit root tests which allow for one and two structural breaks in the trend. Of the seven countries we find, at best, evidence of mean reversion in the stock price index of Japan. Thus, overall, our results support the random walk hypothesis. We also consider the implications of the identified structural breaks for movement in stock prices over time. Our main conclusion from this exercise is that the second break in stock prices has had a detrimental effect on movements in stock prices in the G7 countries.

Sociodemographic correlates of the increasing trend in prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus in a large population of women between 1995 and 2005

OBJECTIVE—Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is an increasingly prevalent risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in the mother and is  responsible for morbidity in the child. To better identify women at risk of developing GDM we examined sociodemographic correlates and changes in the prevalence of GDM among all births between 1995 and 2005 in Australia's largest state.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A computerized database of all births (n = 956,738) between 1995 and 2005 in New South Wales, Australia, was used in a multivariate logistic regression that examined the association between sociodemographic characteristics and the occurrence of GDM.
RESULTS—Between 1995 and 2005, the prevalence of GDM increased by 45%, from 3.0 to 4.4%. Women born in South Asia had the highest adjusted odds ratio (OR) of any region (4.33 [95% CI 4.12–4.55]) relative to women born in Australia. Women living in the three lowest socioeconomic quartiles had higher adjusted ORs for GDM relative to women in the highest quartile (1.54 [1.50–1.59], 1.74 [1.69–1.8], and 1.65 [1.60–1.70] for decreasing socioeconomic status quartiles). Increasing age was strongly associated with GDM, with women aged >40 years having an adjusted OR of 6.13 (95% CI 5.79–6.49) relative to women in their early 20s. Parity was associated with a small reduced risk. There was no association between smoking and GDM.
CONCLUSIONS—Maternal age, socioeconomic position, and ethnicity are important correlates of GDM. Future culturally specific interventions should target prevention of GDM in these high-risk groups.

Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models

This paper examines whether stock prices for a sample of 22 OECD countries can be best represented as mean reversion or random walk processes. A sequential trend break test proposed by Zivot and Andrews is implemented, which has the advantage that it can take account of a structural break in the series, as well as panel data unit root tests proposed by Im et al., which exploits the extra power in the panel properties of the data. Results provide strong support for the random walk hypothesis.