Einsatz von rückgekoppelten mehrstufigen selbstorganisierenden Karten in der Windenergie Leistungsprognose

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Verfahren zum Einsatz neuronaler Netzwerke vorgestellt, das auf iterative Weise Klassifikation und Prognoseschritte mit dem Ziel kombiniert, bessere Ergebnisse der Prognose im Vergleich zu einer einmaligen hintereinander Ausführung dieser Schritte zu erreichen. Dieses Verfahren wird am Beispiel der Prognose der Windstromerzeugung abhängig von der Wettersituation erörtert. Eine Verbesserung wird in diesem Rahmen mit einzelnen Ausreißern erreicht. Verschiedene Aspekte werden in drei Kapiteln diskutiert: In Kapitel 1 werden die verwendeten Daten und ihre elektronische Verarbeitung vorgestellt. Die Daten bestehen zum einen aus Windleistungshochrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland der Jahre 2011 und 2012, welche als Transparenzanforderung des Erneuerbaren Energiegesetzes durch die Übertragungsnetzbetreiber publiziert werden müssen. Zum anderen werden Wetterprognosen, die der Deutsche Wetterdienst im Rahmen der Grundversorgung kostenlos bereitstellt, verwendet. Kapitel 2 erläutert zwei aus der Literatur bekannte Verfahren - Online- und Batchalgorithmus - zum Training einer selbstorganisierenden Karte. Aus den dargelegten Verfahrenseigenschaften begründet sich die Wahl des Batchverfahrens für die in Kapitel 3 erläuterte Methode. Das in Kapitel 3 vorgestellte Verfahren hat im modellierten operativen Einsatz den gleichen Ablauf, wie eine Klassifikation mit anschließender klassenspezifischer Prognose. Bei dem Training des Verfahrens wird allerdings iterativ vorgegangen, indem im Anschluss an das Training der klassenspezifischen Prognose ermittelt wird, zu welcher Klasse der Klassifikation ein Eingabedatum gehören sollte, um mit den vorliegenden klassenspezifischen Prognosemodellen die höchste Prognosegüte zu erzielen. Die so gewonnene Einteilung der Eingaben kann genutzt werden, um wiederum eine neue Klassifikationsstufe zu trainieren, deren Klassen eine verbesserte klassenspezifisch Prognose ermöglichen.

A Theory of Quantitative Inference Applied to a Mechanical Design Compiler

This thesis presents the ideas underlying a computer program that takes as input a schematic of a mechanical or hydraulic power transmission system, plus specifications and a utility function, and returns catalog numbers from predefined catalogs for the optimal selection of components implementing the design. Unlike programs for designing single components or systems, the program provides the designer with a high level "language" in which to compose new designs. It then performs some of the detailed design process. The process of "compilation" is based on a formalization of quantitative inferences about hierarchically organized sets of artifacts and operating conditions. This allows the design compilation without the exhaustive enumeration of alternatives.

Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and tractability to allow for analytic derivatives pricing formulae. In an extensive futures pricing study, the pricing performance of our model is shown to further improve based on the inclusion of electricity demand and capacity forecasts, thus confirming the general importance of forward-looking information for electricity derivatives pricing. However, we also find that the usefulness of integrating forecast data into the pricing approach is primarily limited to those periods during which electricity prices are highly sensitive to demand or available capacity, whereas the impact is less visible when fuel prices are the primary underlying driver to prices instead.

A modified Primal-Dual Logarithmic-Barrier Method for solving the Optimal Power Flow problem with discrete and continuous control variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Optimal reactive power flow via the modified barrier Lagrangian function approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Resolvendo problemas de fluxo de potência ótimo DC através de uma rede de hopfield modificada

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Localização de faltas em linhas de transmissão usando morfologia matemática

This work an algorithm for fault location is proposed. It contains the following functions: fault detection, fault classification and fault location. Mathematical Morphology is used to process currents obtained in the monitored terminals. Unlike Fourier and Wavelet transforms that are usually applied to fault location, the Mathematical Morphology is a non-linear operation that uses only basic operation (sum, subtraction, maximum and minimum). Thus, Mathematical Morphology is computationally very efficient. For detection and classification functions, the Morphological Wavelet was used. On fault location module the Multiresolution Morphological Gradient was used to detect the traveling waves and their polarities. Hence, recorded the arrival in the two first traveling waves incident at the measured terminal and knowing the velocity of propagation, pinpoint the fault location can be estimated. The algorithm was applied in a 440 kV power transmission system, simulated on ATP. Several fault conditions where studied and the following parameters were evaluated: fault location, fault type, fault resistance, fault inception angle, noise level and sampling rate. The results show that the application of Mathematical Morphology in faults location is very promising

Estudo comparativo dos métodos Nodal e Zbus para alocação de custos pelo uso do sistema de transmissão

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An overview on network cost allocation methods

This work is devoted to Study and discuss the main methods to solve the network cost allocation problem both for generators and demands. From the presented, compared and discussed methods, the first one is based on power injections, the second deals with proportional sharing factors, the third is based upon Equivalent Bilateral Exchanges, the fourth analyzes the power How sensitivity in relation to the power injected, and the last one is based on Z(bus) network matrix. All the methods are initially illustrated using a 4-bus system. In addition, the IEEE 24-bus RTS system is presented for further comparisons and analysis. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spinning reserve opportunity cost in hydroelectric plants

Starting from the deregulated process of the Electric Sector, there was the need to attribute responsibilities to several agents and to elaborate appropriate forms of remuneration of the services rendered by the same. One of the services of great importance within this new electric sector is the Ancillary Services. Among the various types of Ancillary Services, Spinning Reserve is a service necessary for maintaining the integrity of the transmission system from either generation interruptions or load variations. This paper uses the application of the Economic Dispatch theory with the objective of quantifies the availability of Spinning Reserve supply in hydroelectric plants. The proposed methodology utilizes the generating units as well as their efficiencies so as to attend the total demand with the minimum water discharge. The proposed methodology was tested through the data provided by the Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Power Plant. These tests permitted the opportunity cost valuation to the Spinning Reserve supply in hydroelectric plants. © 2005 IEEE.

A comparative study of the damping oscillation function of TCSC and UPFC

The main objective of this work is to analyze the ability of FACTS devices like TCSC and UPFC to damp low frequency oscillations and a POD controller is also included. A comparative study of damping effect of those devices IS carried out. The Power Sensitivity Model (PSM) is used to the representation of the electric power system. Sensibility analysis using the residue method shows the best place for the installation of FACTS and the procedure to determine POD parameters. ©2008 IEEE.

Multi-areas optimal reactive power flow

This paper describes a method for the decentralized solution of the optimal reactive power flow (ORPF) problem in interconnected power systems. The ORPF model is solved in a decentralized framework, consisting of regions, where the transmission system operator in each area operates its system independently of the other areas, obtaining an optimal coordinated but decentralized solution. The proposed scheme is based on an augmented Lagrangian approach using the auxiliary problem principle (APP). An implementation of an interior point method is described to solve the decoupled problem in each area. The described method is successfully implemented and tested using the IEEE two area RTS 96 test system. Numerical results comparing the solutions obtained by the traditional and the proposed decentralized methods are presented for validation. ©2008 IEEE.

Decomposição de Dantzig-Wolfe aplicada ao problema de planejamento de reativos em sistemas de potência multi-áreas

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Alívio de sobrecargas em redes de transmissão com o auxílio de geradores distribuídos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Características de sistemas de transmissão tetrafásicos submetidos a transitórios lentos e rápidos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)