Freeway traffic estimation in Beijing based on particle filter

Short-term traffic flow data is characterized by rapid and dramatic fluctuations. It reflects the nature of the frequent congestion in the lane, which shows a strong nonlinear feature. Traffic state estimation based on the data gained by electronic sensors is critical for much intelligent traffic management and the traffic control. In this paper, a solution to freeway traffic estimation in Beijing is proposed using a particle filter, based on macroscopic traffic flow model, which estimates both traffic density and speed.Particle filter is a nonlinear prediction method, which has obvious advantages for traffic flows prediction. However, with the increase of sampling period, the volatility of the traffic state curve will be much dramatic. Therefore, the prediction accuracy will be affected and difficulty of forecasting is raised. In this paper, particle filter model is applied to estimate the short-term traffic flow. Numerical study is conducted based on the Beijing freeway data with the sampling period of 2 min. The relatively high accuracy of the results indicates the superiority of the proposed model.

The impacts of traffic and rainfall characteristics on heavy metals build-up and wash-off from urban roads

An investigation into the effects of changes in urban traffic characteristics due to rapid urbanisation and the predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change on the build-up and wash-off of heavy metals was carried out in Gold Coast, Australia. The study sites encompassed three different urban land uses. Nine heavy metals commonly associated with traffic emissions were selected. The results were interpreted using multivariate data analysis and decision making tools, such as principal component analysis (PCA), fuzzy clustering (FC), PROMETHEE and GAIA. Initial analyses established high, low and moderate traffic scenarios as well as low, low to moderate, moderate, high and extreme rainfall scenarios for build-up and wash-off investigations. GAIA analyses established that moderate to high traffic scenarios could affect the build-up while moderate to high rainfall scenarios could affect the wash-off of heavy metals under changed conditions. However, in wash-off, metal concentrations in 1-75µm fraction were found to be independent of the changes to rainfall characteristics. In build-up, high traffic activities in commercial and industrial areas influenced the accumulation of heavy metal concentrations in particulate size range from 75 - >300 µm, whereas metal concentrations in finer size range of <1-75 µm were not affected. As practical implications, solids <1 µm and organic matter from 1 - >300 µm can be targeted for removal of Ni, Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr and Zn from build-up whilst organic matter from <1 - >300 µm can be targeted for removal of Cd, Cr, Pb and Ni from wash-off. Cu and Zn need to be removed as free ions from most fractions in wash-off.

Predictions of road traffic noise on residential balconies using a specular and diffusion model

A combined specular reflection and diffusion model using the radiosity technique was developed to calculate road traffic noise level on residential balconies. The model is capable of numerous geometrical configurations for a single balcony situated in the centre of a street canyon. The geometry of the balcony and the street can be altered with width,length and height. The model was used to calculate for three different geometrical and acoustic absorption characteristics for a balcony. The calculated results are presented in this paper.

Profiling the offence patterns of disqualified drink drivers in Queensland, Australia.

While unlicensed driving does not play a direct causative role in road crashes, it represents a major problem for road safety. A particular subgroup of concern is those offenders who continue to drive after having their licence disqualified for drink driving. Surveys of disqualified drivers suggest that driving among this group is relatively common. Method This paper reports findings from an analysis of the driving records of over 545,000 Queensland drivers who experienced a licence sanction between January 2003 and December 2008. The sample included drivers who were disqualified by a court (e.g., for drink driving); those who licence had been suspended administratively (e.g., for accumulation of demerit points); and those who were placed on a restricted licence. Results Overall, 95,461 of the drivers in the sample were disqualified from driving for a drink driving offence. During the period, these drivers were issued with a total of 2,644,619 traffic infringements with approximately 12% (n = 8, 095) convicted of a further drink driving offence while disqualified. Other traffic offences detected during this period including unlicensed driving (18%), driving an unregistered vehicle (27%), speeding (21%), dangerous driving (36%), mobile phone use (35%), non-restraint use (32%), and other moving violation (23%). Offending behaviour was more common among men than women. Conclusions While licence disqualification has previously been shown to be a relatively effective sanction for managing the behaviour of drink driving offenders, the results of the current study highlight that it is a far from perfect tool since many offenders continue to commit both drink driving and other traffic offences while disqualified. As such, this study highlights the ongoing need to enhance the detection of disqualified and unlicensed driving in order to deter this behaviour.

Psychiatric and substance abuse comorbidity among a large sample of DUI Texas offenders

Research is indicating that individuals who present for DUI treatment may have competing substance abuse and mental health needs. This study aimed to examine the extent of such comorbidity issues among a sample of Texas DUI offenders. Method: Records of 36,372 DUI clients and 308,695 non-DUI clients admitted to Texas treatment programs between 2005 and 2008 were obtained from the State's administrative dataset. The data were analysed to identify the relationship between substance use, psychiatric problems, program completion and recidivism rates. Results: Analysis indicated that while non-DUI clients were more likely to present with more severe illicit substance use problems, DUI clients were more likely to have a primary problem with alcohol. Additionally, a cannabis use problem was also found to be significantly associated with DUI recidivism in the last year. In regards to mental health needs, a major finding was that depression was the most common psychiatric condition reported by DUI clients, including those with more than one DUI offence in the past year. This group were also more at risk of being diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder compared to the general population, and such a diagnosis was also associated with an increased likelihood of not completing treatment. Interestingly, female DUI and non-DUI clients were also more likely to be diagnosed with mental health problems compared to males, as well as more likely to be placed on medications at admission and have problems with methamphetamine, cocaine, and opiates. Conclusion: The findings highlight the complex competing needs of some DUI offenders who enter treatment. The results also suggest that there is a need to utilise mental health and substance abuse screening methods to ensure DUI offenders are directed towards appropriate treatment pathways as well as ensure that such interventions adequately cater for complex substance abuse and psychiatric needs.

Impaired drivers : The need to yoke treatment and sanctions

Objective: To understand the levels of substance abuse and dependence among impaired drivers by comparing the differences in patients in substance abuse treatment programs with and without a past-year DUI arrest based on their primary problem substance at admission (alcohol, cocaine, cannabis, or methamphetamine). Method: Records on 345,067 admissions to Texas treatment programs between 2005 and 2008 have been analyzed for differences in demographic characteristics, levels of severity, and mental health problems at admission, treatment completion, and 90-day follow-up. Methods will include t-tests,??, and multivariate logistic regression. Results: The analysis found that DUI arrestees with a primary problem with alcohol were less impaired than non-DUI alcohol patients, had fewer mental health problems, and were more likely to complete treatment. DUI arrestees with a primary problem with cannabis were more impaired than non-DUI cannabis patients and there was no difference in treatment completion. DUI arrestees with a primary problem with cocaine were less impaired and more likely to complete treatment than other cocaine patients, and there was little difference in levels of mental health problems. DUI arrestees with a primary problem with methamphetamine were more similar to methamphetamine non-arrestees, with no difference in mental health problems and treatment completion. Conclusions: This study provides evidence of the extent of abuse and dependence among DUI arrestees and their need for treatment for their alcohol and drug problems in order to decrease recidivism. Treatment patients with past-year DUI arrests had good treatment outcomes but closer supervision during 90 day follow-up after treatment can lead to even better long-term outcomes, including reduced recidivism. Information will be provided on the latest treatment methodologies, including medication assisted therapies and screening and brief interventions, and ways impaired driving programs and substance dependence programs can be integrated to benefit the driver and society.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Brisbane floods : a traffic and transport perspective

Flood-besieged Brisbane residents were forced to watch the monster river consume their homes and livelihoods then see the receding water leave behind a putrid, tar-like sludge. The rains formed by multiple low pressure systems over Central Queensland caused chaos over the Christmas and New Year break for many parts of Queensland.

The influence of underreported crashes on hotspot identification

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

Overloading truck traffic study and strategy to minimise it

Overloaded truck traffic is a significant problem on highways around the world. Developing countries in particular, overloaded truck traffic causes large amounts of unexpected expenditure in terms of road maintenance because of premature pavement damage. Overloaded truck traffic is a common phenomenon in developing countries, because of inefficient road management and monitoring systems. According to the available literature, many developing countries are facing the same problem, which is economic loss caused by the existence of overloaded trucks in the traffic stream. This paper summarizes the available literature, news reports, journal articles and traffic research regarding overloaded traffic. It examines the issue of overloading and the strategies and legislation used in developed countries.

Increased traffic exposure and negative birth outcomes : a prospective cohort in Australia

Background: Pregnant women exposed to traffic pollution have an increased risk of negative birth outcomes. We aimed to investigate the size of this risk using a prospective cohort of 970 mothers and newborns in Logan, Queensland. ----- ----- Methods: We examined two measures of traffic: distance to nearest road and number of roads around the home. To examine the effect of distance we used the number of roads around the home in radii from 50 to 500 metres. We examined three road types: freeways, highways and main roads.----- ----- Results: There were no associations with distance to road. A greater number of freeways and main roads around the home were associated with a shorter gestation time. There were no negative impacts on birth weight, birth length or head circumference after adjusting for gestation. The negative effects on gestation were largely due to main roads within 400 metres of the home. For every 10 extra main roads within 400 metres of the home, gestation time was reduced by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.7, -0.5; p-value = 0.001).----- ----- Conclusions: Our results add weight to the association between exposure to traffic and reduced gestation time. This effect may be due to the chemical toxins in traffic pollutants, or because of disturbed sleep due to traffic noise.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic : bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the capabilities of wavelet transform (WT) for analyzing important features related to bottleneck activations and traffic oscillations in congested traffic in a systematic manner. In particular, the analysis of loop detector data from a freeway shows that the use of wavelet-based energy can effectively identify the location of an active bottleneck, the arrival time of the resulting queue at each upstream sensor location, and the start and end of a transition during the onset of a queue. Vehicle trajectories were also analyzed using WT and our analysis shows that the wavelet-based energies of individual vehicles can effectively detect the origins of deceleration waves and shed light on possible triggers (e.g., lane-changing). The spatiotemporal propagations of oscillations identified by tracing wavelet-based energy peaks from vehicle to vehicle enable analysis of oscillation amplitude, duration and intensity.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.