A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data.

A meta analysis of real estate fund performance

This paper provides evidence regarding the risk-adjusted performance of 19 UK real estate funds in the UK, over the period 1991-2001. Using Jensen’s alpha the results are generally favourable towards the hypothesis that real estate fund managers showed superior risk-adjusted performance over this period. However, using three widely known parametric statistical procedures to jointly test for timing and selection ability the results are less conclusive. The paper then utilises the meta-analysis technique to further examine the regression results in an attempt to estimate the proportion of variation in results attributable to sampling error. The meta-analysis results reveal strong evidence, across all models, that the variation in findings is real and may not be attributed to sampling error. Thus, the meta-analysis results provide strong evidence that on average the sample of real estate funds analysed in this study delivered significant risk-adjusted performance over this period. The meta-analysis for the three timing and selection models strongly indicating that this out performance of the benchmark resulted from superior selection ability, while the evidence for the ability of real estate fund managers to time the market is at best weak. Thus, we can say that although real estate fund managers are unable to outperform a passive buy and hold strategy through timing, they are able to improve their risk-adjusted performance through selection ability.

Rossby wave-breaking analysis of explosive cyclones in the Euro-Atlantic sector

The two-way relationship between Rossby Wave-Breaking (RWB) and intensification of extra tropical cyclones is analysed over the Euro-Atlantic sector. In particular, the timing, intensity and location of cyclone development are related to RWB occurrences. For this purpose, two potential-temperature based indices are used to detect and classify anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB episodes from ERA-40 Re-Analysis data. Results show that explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic (NA) is fostered by enhanced occurrence of RWB on days prior to the cyclone’s maximum intensification. Under such conditions, the eddy-driven jet stream is accelerated over the NA, thus enhancing conditions for cyclogenesis. For explosive cyclogenesis over the eastern NA, enhanced cyclonic RWB over eastern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over the sub-tropical NA are observed. Typically only one of these is present in any given case, with the RWB over eastern Greenland being more frequent than its southern counterpart. This leads to an intensification of the jet over the eastern NA and enhanced probability of windstorms reaching Western Europe. Explosive cyclones evolving under simultaneous RWB on both sides of the jet feature a higher mean intensity and deepening rates than cyclones preceded by a single RWB event. Explosive developments over the western NA are typically linked to a single area of enhanced cyclonic RWB over western Greenland. Here, the eddy-driven jet is accelerated over the western NA. Enhanced occurrence of cyclonic RWB over southern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over Europe is also observed after explosive cyclogenesis, potentially leading to the onset of Scandinavian Blocking. However, only very intense developments have a considerable influence on the large-scale atmospheric flow. Non-explosive cyclones depict no sign of enhanced RWB over the whole NA area. We conclude that the links between RWB and cyclogenesis over the Euro-Atlantic sector are sensitive to the cyclone’s maximum intensity, deepening rate and location.

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.

The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchronisation. This calls for detailed knowledge of when, and on what occasions many people engage in the same activities at the same time, of how such patterns are changing, and of how might they be shaped. In addition, the impact of smart meters and controls partly depends on whether there is, in fact scope for shifting the timing of what people do, and for changing the rhythm of the day. Is the scheduling of daily life an arena that policy can influence, and if so how? The DEMAND Centre has been linking time use, energy consumption and travel diary data as a means of addressing these questions and in this working paper we present some of the issues and results arising from that exercise.

First contribution of mites (Acari) to the forensic analysis of hanged corpses: a case study from Spain

This case study from North Spain, highlights the importance of the collection of mites in addition to insects, from crime scenes or corpses subjected to environmental constraints that reduce or minimise insect activity, such as hanged corpses. In addition, this analysis highlights the relevance of arthropods’ collection in the field, even after the corpse has been moved away for autopsy. Four species of mites, phoretic on carrion (Silphidae) and rove (Staphylinidae) beetles, complemented and reinforced the autopsy analysis as well as the scarce information provided by insect activity. Poecilochirus carabi Canestrini & Canestrini, 1882 and Poecilochirus (Physoparasitus) davydovae Hyatt, 1980 (Mesostigmata: Parasitidae) were found in association with two Silphidae, Nicrophorus Fabricius, 1775 and Necrodes Leach, 1815, only when sampled in the autopsy room; this is suggestive of host-switching of mites and was likely due to the lack of availability of specific carriers in the field. The interpretation of the activity of Parasitidae mites both in the field and the autopsy room allows a better understanding of the timing and circumstances of decomposition. Phoretic deutonymphs of Pelzneria Scheucher 1957 (Astigmata: Histiostomatidae) were highly abundant, mostly P. crenulata Oudemans, 1909 and are reported for the first time on a Staphylinidae rove beetle, Creophilus maxillosus (L., 1758). Surprisingly, in this case study no Pelzneria were associated with the Silphidae found, which are their most common hosts, such as Necrodes littoralis (L., 1758) and Nicrophorus interruptus (Stephens, 1830). All histiostomatids were removed from the staphylinid (rove beetle) collected from the soil, at the scene of death, suggesting a recent arrival of the beetle. The occurrence of Staphylinidae beetles and their associated mites, such as Parasitidae and Pelzneria, and the information they provided would have been easily overlooked or lost if only the autopsy sampling would have been considered in the analysis of the case. The four mite species are reported for the first time for the Iberian Peninsula.

La Niña 2016/2017: historical impact analysis

El Niño conditions developed in the tropical Pacific during the latter half of 2015, peaking in December 2015 as one of the strongest El Niño events on record, comparable with the 1997-98 “El Niño of the century”. Conditions in the tropical Pacific are forecast to return to normal over the coming months, with the potential to transition into La Niña conditions during 2016-17. If this was to occur it would act as a further strong perturbation, or ‘kick’, to the climate system and lead to further significant socio-economic impacts affecting many sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy. This report analyses La Niña events over the last 37 years of the satellite era (1979-present) and aims to identify regions where there is an increased likelihood of impacts occurring. It is important to note that this analysis is based on past analogous events and is not a prediction for this year. No two La Niña events will be the same – the timing and magnitude of events differs considerably. More importantly, no two La Niña events lead to the same impacts – other local physical and social factors come into play. Therefore, the exact timings, locations and magnitudes of impacts should be interpreted with caution and this should be accounted for in any preparedness measures that are taken. This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Outcome Analysis of Immediate and Delayed Conservative Breast Surgery Reconstruction With Mastopexy and Reduction Mammaplasty Techniques

Background: Bilateral mammaplasty or mastopexy is frequently used for oncoplastic objectives. However, little information has been available regarding outcome following immediate and delayed reconstruction. Method: Patients were divided into Group I (immediate reconstruction) and Group II (delayed reconstruction). Retrospective review was performed to compare complications, length of hospital stay, revision surgeries, and satisfaction. The associations between the complications with potential risk factors (timing, age, body mass index, smoking, and comorbid medical conditions) were analyzed. Results: There were a total of 144 patients with a mean follow-up of 47 months. Of the 106 patients in Group I, complications occurred in 24 (22.6%), skin necrosis was observed in 7.5%, fat necrosis in 5.6%, and 6.6% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.89 days. Of the 38 patients of the Group II, complications occurred in 12 (31.5%), skin necrosis was observed in 7 (18.4%), fat necrosis in 4 (10.5%), and 5.2% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.35 days. Increased length of hospital stay greater than 1 day (P < 0.001) and the number of revision surgeries (P = 0.043) were associated with the timing of the reconstruction. In univariate analysis, no difference between groups was found with respect to complication incidence (P = 0.275); however, after adjusting for other risk factors, the probability of complications tend to be higher for Group II (OR = 2.65; 95% confidence interval - 1.01-7.00; P = 0.049). Conclusions: On the basis of the results of our study, the probability of complications tends to be higher for delayed reconstructions, and it is demonstrated that obesity and smoking are risk factors for complications. Ultimately, these data may facilitate the provision of individualized risk information for shared medical decision-making.

The timing of Neotropical speciation dynamics: A reconstruction of Myiopagis flycatcher diversification using phylogenetic and paleogeographic data

Neotropical forests have brought forth a large proportion of the world`s terrestrial biodiversity, but the underlying evolutionary mechanisms and their timing require further elucidation. Despite insights gained from phylogenetic studies, uncertainties about molecular clock rates have hindered efforts to determine the timing of diversification processes. Moreover, most molecular research has been detached from the extensive body of data on Neotropical geology and paleogeography. We here examine phylogenetic relationships and the timing of speciation events in a Neotropical flycatcher genus (Myiopagis) by using calibrations from modern geologic data in conjunction with a number of recently developed DNA sequence dating algorithms and by comparing these estimates with those based on a range of previously proposed molecular clock rates. We present a well-supported hypothesis of systematic relationships within the genus. Our age estimates of Myiopagis speciation events based on paleogeographic data are in close agreement with nodal ages derived from a ""traditional"" avian mitochondrial 2%/My clock, while contradicting other clock rates. Our comparative approach corroborates the consistency of the traditional avian mitochondrial clock rate of 2%/My for tyrant-flycatchers. Nevertheless, our results argue against the indiscriminate use of molecular clock rates in evolutionary research and advocate the verification of the appropriateness of the traditional clock rate by means of independent calibrations in individual studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cladistic analysis of continuous modularized traits provides phylogenetic signals in Homo evolution

Evolutionary novelties in the skeleton are usually expressed as changes in the timing of growth of features intrinsically integrated at different hierarchical levels of development(1). As a consequence, most of the shape- traits observed across species do vary quantitatively rather than qualitatively(2), in a multivariate space(3) and in a modularized way(4,5). Because most phylogenetic analyses normally use discrete, hypothetically independent characters(6), previous attempts have disregarded the phylogenetic signals potentially enclosed in the shape of morphological structures. When analysing low taxonomic levels, where most variation is quantitative in nature, solving basic requirements like the choice of characters and the capacity of using continuous, integrated traits is of crucial importance in recovering wider phylogenetic information. This is particularly relevant when analysing extinct lineages, where available data are limited to fossilized structures. Here we show that when continuous, multivariant and modularized characters are treated as such, cladistic analysis successfully solves relationships among main Homo taxa. Our attempt is based on a combination of cladistics, evolutionary- development- derived selection of characters, and geometric morphometrics methods. In contrast with previous cladistic analyses of hominid phylogeny, our method accounts for the quantitative nature of the traits, and respects their morphological integration patterns. Because complex phenotypes are observable across different taxonomic groups and are potentially informative about phylogenetic relationships, future analyses should point strongly to the incorporation of these types of trait.

Medical treatment and the good death: an ethical analysis of euthanasia, physician assisted suicide, and the right to die

Frequent advances in medical technologies have brought fonh many innovative treatments that allow medical teams to treal many patients with grave illness and serious trauma who would have died only a few years earlier. These changes have given some patients a second chance at life, but for others. these new treatments have merely prolonged their dying. Instead of dying relatively painlessly, these unfortunate patients often suffer from painful tenninal illnesses or exist in a comatose state that robs them of their dignity, since they cannot survive without advanced and often dehumanizing forms of treatment. Due to many of these concerns, euthanasia has become a central issue in medical ethics. Additionally, the debate is impacted by those who believe that patients have the right make choices about the method and timing of their deaths. Euthanasia is defined as a deliberate act by a physician to hasten the death of a patient, whether through active methods such as an injection of morphine, or through the withdrawal of advanced forms of medical care, for reasons of mercy because of a medical condition that they have. This study explores the question of whether euthanasia is an ethical practice and, as determined by ethical theories and professional codes of ethics, whether the physician is allowed to provide the means to give the patient a path to a "good death," rather than one filled with physical and mental suffering. The paper also asks if there is a relevant moral difference between the active and passive forms of euthanasia and seeks to define requirements to ensure fully voluntary decision making through an evaluation of the factors necessary to produce fully informed consent. Additionally, the proper treatments for patients who suffer from painful terminal illnesses, those who exist in persistent vegetative states and infants born with many diverse medical problems are examined. The ultimate conclusions that are reached in the paper are that euthanasia is an ethical practice in certain specific circumstances for patients who have a very low quality of life due to pain, illness or serious mental deficits as a result of irreversible coma, persistent vegetative state or end-stage clinical dementia. This is defended by the fact that the rights of the patient to determine his or her own fate and to autonomously decide the way that he or she dies are paramount to all other factors in decisions of life and death. There are also circumstances where decisions can be made by health care teams in conjunction with the family to hasten the deaths of incompetent patients when continued existence is clearly not in their best interest, as is the case of infants who are born with serious physical anomalies, who are either 'born dying' or have no prospect for a life that is of a reasonable quality. I have rejected the distinction between active and passive methods of euthanasia and have instead chosen to focus on the intentions of the treating physician and the voluntary nature of the patient's request. When applied in equivalent circumstances, active and passive methods of euthanasia produce the same effects, and if the choice to hasten the death of the patient is ethical, then the use of either method can be accepted. The use of active methods of euthanasia and active forms of withdrawal of life support, such as the removal of a respirator are both conscious decisions to end the life of the patient and both bring death within a short period of time. It is false to maintain a distinction that believes that one is active killing. whereas the other form only allows nature to take it's course. Both are conscious choices to hasten the patient's death and should be evaluated as such. Additionally, through an examination of the Hippocratic Oath, and statements made by the American Medical Association and the American College of physicians, it can be shown that the ideals that the medical profession maintains and the respect for the interests of the patient that it holds allows the physician to give aid to patients who wish to choose death as an alternative to continued suffering. The physician is also allowed to and in some circumstances, is morally required, to help dying patients whether through active or passive forms of euthanasia or through assisted suicide. Euthanasia is a difficult topic to think about, but in the end, we should support the choice that respects the patient's autonomous choice or clear best interest and the respect that we have for their dignity and personal worth.

Variations in dynamic knee valgus and gluteus medius onset timing in non-athletic females related to hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Visual timing and adaptive behavior in a road-crossing simulation study

In this road-crossing simulation study, we assessed both participant's ability to visually judge whether or not they could cross a road, and their adaptive walking behavior. To this end, participants were presented with a road inside the laboratory on which a bike approached with different velocities from different distances. Eight children aged 5-7, ten children aged 10-12, and ten adults were asked both to verbally judge whether they could cross the road, and to actually walk across the road if possible. The results indicated that the verbal judgments were not similar to judgments to actually cross the road. With respect to safety and accuracy of judgments, groups did not differ from each other, although the youngest group tended to be more cautious. All groups appeared to use a strategy to cross the road based both on the distance and the velocity of the approaching bike. Young children waited longer on the curb before crossing the road than older children and adults. All groups adjusted their crossing time to the time-to-arrival of the bike. These findings are discussed in relation to the ecological psychological approach and the putative dissociation between vision for perception (i.e. verbal judgment) and vision for action (i.e. actual crossing). (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recognition of Cretaceous, Paleocene, and Neogene tectonic reactivation through apatite fission-track analysis in Precambrian areas of southeast Brazil: Association with the opening of the south Atlantic Ocean

Apatite fission-track analysis was used for the determination of thermal histories and ages in Precambrian areas of southeast Brazil. Together with geological and geomorphologic information, these ages enable us to quantify the thermal histories and timing of Mesozoic and Cenozoic epirogenic and tectonic processes. The collected samples are from different geomorphologic blocks: the high Mantiqueira mountain range (HMMR) with altitude above 1000 m, the low Mantiqueira mountain range (LMMR) under 1000 m, the Serra do Mar mountain range (SMMR), the Jundiá and Atlantic Plateaus, and the coastline, all of which have distinct thermal histories. During the Aptian (∼120 Ma), there was an uplift of the HMMR, coincident with opening of the south Atlantic Ocean. Its thermal history indicates heating (from ∼60 to∼80 °C) until the Paleocene, when rocks currently exposed in the LMMR reached temperatures of ∼100 °C. In this period, the Serra do Mar rift system and the Japi erosion surface were formed. The relief records the latter. During the Late Cretaceous, the SMMR was uplifted and probably linked to its origin; in the Tertiary, it experienced heating from ∼60 to ∼90 °C, then cooling that extends to the present. The SMMR, LMMR, and HMMR were reactivated mainly in the Paleocene, and the coastline during the Paleogene. These processes are reflected in the sedimentary sequences and discordances of the interior and continental margin basins. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.