Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

Um modelo "time-varying markov-Switching" para crescimento econômico e algoritmo de estimação

Este trabalho elabora um modelo para investigação do padrão de variação do crescimento econômico, entre diferentes países e através do tempo, usando um framework Markov- Switching com matriz de transição variável. O modelo desenvolvido segue a abordagem de Pritchett (2003), explicando a dinâmica do crescimento a partir de uma coleção de diferentes estados – cada qual com seu sub-modelo e padrão de crescimento – através dos quais os países oscilam ao longo do tempo. A matriz de transição entre os diferentes estados é variante no tempo, dependendo de variáveis condicionantes de cada país e a dinâmica de cada estado é linear. Desenvolvemos um método de estimação generalizando o Algoritmo EM de Diebold et al. (1993) e estimamos um modelo-exemplo em painel com a matriz de transição condicionada na qualidade das instituições e no nível de investimento. Encontramos três estados de crescimento: crescimento estável, ‘milagroso’ e estagnação - virtualmente coincidentes com os três primeiros de Jerzmanowski (2006). Os resultados mostram que a qualidade das instituições é um importante determinante do crescimento de longo prazo enquanto o nível de investimento tem papel diferenciado: contribui positivamente em países com boa qualidade de instituições e tem papel pouco relevante para os países com instituições medianas ou piores.

A time-varying markov-switching model for economic growth

This paper investigates economic growth’s pattern of variation across and within countries using a Time-Varying Transition Matrix Markov-Switching Approach. The model developed follows the approach of Pritchett (2003) and explains the dynamics of growth based on a collection of different states, each of which has a sub-model and a growth pattern, by which countries oscillate over time. The transition matrix among the different states varies over time, depending on the conditioning variables of each country, with a linear dynamic for each state. We develop a generalization of the Diebold’s EM Algorithm and estimate an example model in a panel with a transition matrix conditioned on the quality of the institutions and the level of investment. We found three states of growth: stable growth, miraculous growth, and stagnation. The results show that the quality of the institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth, whereas the level of investment has varying roles in that it contributes positively in countries with high-quality institutions but is of little relevance in countries with medium- or poor-quality institutions.

Recurrence of particles in static and time varying oval billiards

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evaluating distributed time-varying generation through a multiobjective index

In the last decade, distributed generation, with its various technologies, has increased its presence in the energy mix presenting distribution networks with challenges in terms of evaluating the technical impacts that require a wide range of network operational effects to be qualified and quantified. The inherent time-varying behavior of demand and distributed generation (particularly when renewable sources are used), need to be taken into account since considering critical scenarios of loading and generation may mask the impacts. One means of dealing with such complexity is through the use of indices that indicate the benefit or otherwise of connections at a given location and for a given horizon. This paper presents a multiobjective performance index for distribution networks with time-varying distributed generation which consider a number of technical issues. The approach has been applied to a medium voltage distribution network considering hourly demand and wind speeds. Results show that this proposal has a better response to the natural behavior of loads and generation than solely considering a single operation scenario.

The propagator for a charged oscillator with a time-dependent mass in a time-varying electromagnetic field

We make a change of variables and a time reparametrization in the Schrödinger equation in order to obtain the propagator of a charged oscillator with a time-dependent mass and frequency under the influence of time-varying electric and magnetic fields, in terms of the simple propagators of harmonic oscillators with constant frequencies and masses. We also discuss the Jackiw transformation and others as a particular case of ours. © 1991.

Temporal evolution of sulfated zirconia sol-gel during dip coating: Analysis of mass drainage with time-varying refractive index

The formation of sulfated zirconia films from a sol-gel derived aqueous suspension is subjected to double-optical monitoring during batch dip coating. Interpretation of interferometric patterns, previously obscured by a variable refractive index, is now made possible by addition of its direct measurement by a polarimetric technique in real time. Significant sensitivity of the resulting physical thickness and refractive index curves (uncertainties of ±7 nm and ±0.005, respectively) to temporal film evolution is shown under different withdrawal speeds. As a first contribution to quantitative understanding of temporal film formation with varying nanostructure during dip coating, detailed analysis is directed to the stage of the process dominated by mass drainage, whose simple modeling with temporal t-1/2 dependence is verified experimentally. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Controllability and stabilizability of linear time-varying distributed hereditary control systems

This paper is concerned with the controllability and stabilizability problem for control systems described by a time-varyinglinear abstract differential equation with distributed delay in the state variables. An approximate controllability propertyis established, and for periodic systems, the stabilization problem is studied. Assuming that the semigroup of operatorsassociated with the uncontrolled and non delayed equation is compact, and using the characterization of the asymptoticstability in terms of the spectrum of the monodromy operator of the uncontrolled system, it is shown that the approximatecontrollability property is a sufficient condition for the existence of a periodic feedback control law that stabilizes thesystem. The result is extended to include some systems which are asymptotically periodic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley &Sons, Ltd.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Smooth Hazard Function Estimation for Interval Censored Data with Time Varying Covariates

In this paper we propose methods for smooth hazard estimation of a time variable where that variable is interval censored. These methods allow one to model the transformed hazard in terms of either smooth (smoothing splines) or linear functions of time and other relevant time varying predictor variables. We illustrate the use of this method on a dataset of hemophiliacs where the outcome, time to seroconversion for HIV, is interval censored and left-truncated.

DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

The effect of a myocardial infarction on the normalized time-varying elastance curve

It has been suggested that the shape of the normalized time-varying elastance curve [E(n)(t(n))] is conserved in different cardiac pathologies. We hypothesize, however, that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively after myocardial infarction (MI). Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 9) were anesthetized, and the left anterior descending coronary artery was ligated to provoke the MI. A sham-operated control group (CTRL) (n = 10) was treated without the MI. Two months later, a conductance catheter was inserted into the left ventricle (LV). The LV pressure and volume were measured and the E(n)(t(n)) derived. Slopes of E(n)(t(n)) during the preejection period (alpha(PEP)), ejection period (alpha(EP)), and their ratio (beta = alpha(EP)/alpha(PEP)) were calculated, together with the characteristic decay time during isovolumic relaxation (tau) and the normalized elastance at end diastole (E(min)(n)). MI provoked significant LV chamber dilatation, thus a loss in cardiac output (-33%), ejection fraction (-40%), and stroke volume (-30%) (P < 0.05). Also, it caused significant calcium increase (17-fold), fibrosis (2-fold), and LV hypertrophy. End-systolic elastance dropped from 0.66 +/- 0.31 mmHg/microl (CTRL) to 0.34 +/- 0.11 mmHg/microl (MI) (P < 0.05). Normalized elastance was significantly reduced in the MI group during the preejection, ejection, and diastolic periods (P < 0.05). The slope of E(n)(t(n)) during the alpha(PEP) and beta were significantly altered after MI (P < 0.05). Furthermore, tau and end-diastolic E(min)(n) were both significantly augmented in the MI group. We conclude that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively in all phases of the heart cycle, between normal and hearts post-MI. This should be considered when utilizing the single-beat concept.