Development appraisal in practice: some evidence from the planning system

Due to the requirement to demonstrate financial feasibility of policy proposals and scheme-specific planning obligations, development viability and development appraisal have become core themes in the English planning system. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the application of development appraisal in practice. The paper reviews the literature and the models available to assess the viability of development and analyses a sample 19 development viability appraisals to identify practice. The paper concludes that the practice of development appraisal deviates significantly from the tenets of capital budgeting theory. In particular, in addition to a propensity to oversimplify the timing of income and expenditure, the way in which debt, developer’s return and value and cost change are handled in practice illustrates a major gap between mainstream capital budgeting theory and development appraisal in practice.

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

Direct soil moisture controls of future global soil carbon changes: An important source of uncertainty

The nature of the climate–carbon cycle feedback depends critically on the response of soil carbon to climate, including changes in moisture. However, soil moisture–carbon feedback responses have not been investigated thoroughly. Uncertainty in the response of soil carbon to soil moisture changes could arise from uncertainty in the relationship between soil moisture and heterotrophic respiration. We used twelve soil moisture–respiration functions (SMRFs) with a soil carbon model (RothC) and data from a coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model to investigate the impact of direct heterotrophic respiration dependence on soil moisture on the climate carbon cycle feedback. Global changes in soil moisture acted to oppose temperature‐driven decreases in soil carbon and hence tended to increase soil carbon storage. We found considerable uncertainty in soil carbon changes due to the response of soil respiration to soil moisture. The use of different SMRFs resulted in both large losses and small gains in future global soil carbon stocks, whether considering all climate forcings or only moisture changes. Regionally, the greatest range in soil carbon changes across SMRFs was found where the largest soil carbon changes occurred. Further research is needed to constrain the soil moisture–respiration relationship and thus reduce uncertainty in climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. There may also be considerable uncertainty in the regional responses of soil carbon to soil moisture changes since climate model predictions of regional soil moisture changes are less coherent than temperature changes.

A comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials

Recently, in order to accelerate drug development, trials that use adaptive seamless designs such as phase II/III clinical trials have been proposed. Phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages. Using stage 1 data, an interim analysis is performed to answer phase II objectives and after collection of stage 2 data, a final confirmatory analysis is performed to answer phase III objectives. In this paper we consider phase II/III clinical trials in which, at stage 1, several experimental treatments are compared to a control and the apparently most effective experimental treatment is selected to continue to stage 2. Although these trials are attractive because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, the inference methods used for trials that compare a single experimental treatment to a control and do not have an interim analysis are no longer appropriate. Several methods for analysing phase II/III clinical trials have been developed. These methods are recent and so there is little literature on extensive comparisons of their characteristics. In this paper we review and compare the various methods available for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials.

Adsorption of organic molecules at the TiO2(110) surface: the effect of van der Waals interactions

Understanding the interaction of organic molecules with TiO2 surfaces is important for a wide range of technological applications. While density functional theory (DFT) calculations can provide valuable insight about these interactions, traditional DFT approaches with local exchange-correlation functionals suffer from a poor description of non-bonding van der Waals (vdW) interactions. We examine here the contribution of vdW forces to the interaction of small organic molecules (methane, methanol, formic acid and glycine) with the TiO2 (110) surface, based on DFT calculations with the optB88-vdW functional. The adsorption geometries and energies at different configurations were also obtained in the standard generalized gradient approximation (GGA-PBE) for comparison. We find that the optB88-vdW consistently gives shorter surface adsorbate-to-surface distances and slightly stronger interactions than PBE for the weak (physisorbed) modes of adsorption. In the case of strongly adsorbed (chemisorbed) molecules both functionals give similar results for the adsorption geometries, and also similar values of the relative energies between different chemisorption modes for each molecule. In particular both functionals predict that dissociative adsorption is more favourable than molecular adsorption for methanol, formic acid and glycine, in general agreement with experiment. The dissociation energies obtained from both functionals are also very similar, indicating that vdW interactions do not affect the thermodynamics of surface deprotonation. However, the optB88-vdW always predicts stronger adsorption than PBE. The comparison of the methanol adsorption energies with values obtained from a Redhead analysis of temperature programmed desorption data suggests that optB88-vdW significantly overestimates the adsorption strength, although we warn about the uncertainties involved in such comparisons.

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

Realities and perceptions for English teachers of Polish children

This chapter examines the responses of English primary school teachers to Polish children arriving in the south of England since 2006. Schools in England have a changing pupil demographic which reflects changing patterns of trans-European migration since the accession of new member states to the EU in 2004 and 2007. There is evidence that this shift is one experienced not just in inner-city schools most commonly associated with minority ethnic populations, but in a wide range of schools in rural and smaller town settings in a number of counties across the country. In adjusting to new identities and new languages in their classrooms, teachers in areas not previously associated with national or ethnic differences are required to respond pedagogically and pastorally in new ways. Their beliefs are compared with the views of migration held by Polish teachers’ from one Polish town affected by migration. Interview data are analysed in order to explore differences in perception towards Polish migrant families and their children. Discussion centres on English teachers’ very positive responses to Polish children, and of how the teacher-friendly behaviour of Polish families may support the construction of stereotypes that are not necessarily a reflection of reality as experienced by the children.

Supporting local diversity of habitats and species on farmland: a comparison of three wildlife-friendly schemes

Restoration and maintenance of habitat diversity have been suggested as conservation priorities in farmed landscapes, but how this should be achieved and at what scale are unclear. This study makes a novel comparison of the effectiveness of three wildlife-friendly farming schemes for supporting local habitat diversity and species richness on 12 farms in England. The schemes were: (i) Conservation Grade (Conservation Grade: a prescriptive, non-organic, biodiversity-focused scheme), (ii) organic agriculture and (iii) a baseline of Entry Level Stewardship (Entry Level Stewardship: a flexible widespread government scheme). Conservation Grade farms supported a quarter higher habitat diversity at the 100-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Conservation Grade and organic farms both supported a fifth higher habitat diversity at the 250-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Habitat diversity at the 100-m and 250-m scales significantly predicted species richness of butterflies and plants. Habitat diversity at the 100-m scale also significantly predicted species richness of birds in winter and solitary bees. There were no significant relationships between habitat diversity and species richness for bumblebees or birds in summer. Butterfly species richness was significantly higher on organic farms (50% higher) and marginally higher on Conservation Grade farms (20% higher), compared with farms in Entry Level Stewardship. Organic farms supported significantly more plant species than Entry Level Stewardship farms (70% higher) but Conservation Grade farms did not (10% higher). There were no significant differences between the three schemes for species richness of bumblebees, solitary bees or birds. Policy implications. The wildlife-friendly farming schemes which included compulsory changes in management, Conservation Grade and organic, were more effective at increasing local habitat diversity and species richness compared with the less prescriptive Entry Level Stewardship scheme. We recommend that wildlife-friendly farming schemes should aim to enhance and maintain high local habitat diversity, through mechanisms such as option packages, where farmers are required to deliver a combination of several habitats.

Quantitative structure of an acetate dye molecule analogue at the TiO2- acetic acid interface

The positions of atoms in and around acetate molecules at the rutile TiO2(110) interface with 0.1 M acetic acid have been determined with a precision of ±0.05 Å. Acetate is used as a surrogate for the carboxylate groups typically employed to anchor monocarboxylate dye molecules to TiO2 in dye-sensitised solar cells (DSSC). Structural analysis reveals small domains of ordered (2 x 1) acetate molecules, with substrate atoms closer to their bulk terminated positions compared to the clean UHV surface. Acetate is found in a bidentate bridge position, binding through both oxygen atoms to two five-fold titanium atoms such that the molecular plane is along the [001] azimuth. Density functional theory calculations provide adsorption geometries in excellent agreement with experiment. The availability of these structural data will improve the accuracy of charge transport models for DSSC.

Worldwide evidence of a unimodal relationship between productivity and plant species richness

The search for predictions of species diversity across environmental gradients has challenged ecologists for decades. The humped-back model (HBM) suggests that plant diversity peaks at intermediate productivity; at low productivity few species can tolerate the environmental stresses, and at high productivity a few highly competitive species dominate. Over time the HBM has become increasingly controversial, and recent studies claim to have refuted it. Here, by using data from coordinated surveys conducted throughout grasslands worldwide and comprising a wide range of site productivities, we provide evidence in support of the HBM pattern at both global and regional extents. The relationships described here provide a foundation for further research into the local, landscape, and historical factors that maintain biodiversity.

Refuge Update – March/April 2009, Volume 6, Number 2

Table of Contents: America’s Birds: In an Alarming State Snakes Alive! Title Sub Title East Coast Wetlands Are Disappearing Chief’s Corner: What We Do Now Extreme Makeover for Bird Sightings by Mike Carlo Taking Care of Our World War II Legacy by Lisa Matlock Whatever Happened to . . . . San Francisco Bay Wetland Restoration Projects Recalling the Battle of Long Island Sound by David Klinger Bold Approaches for Climate Change How Alligator River Refuge Is Planning and Adapting by Mike Bryant Rapid Climate Change Is Transforming the Arctic by David Payer Tracking Change on Wildlife Refuges by Kathy Granillo Where SLAMM Foretells a Wetter Future Reviving the Land – and the Air by Bob Ford and Pete Jerome Connecting the Conservation Landscape a New Priority by Mike Scott and Bob Adamcik Awards for Refuge System Palmyra Atoll Refuge Becomes Ramsar Site Not So Strategic Habitat Conservation: A True Story by David Viker Putting Food on Alaskan Tables by Andy Aderman

Gudmundsen Sandhills Laboratory Open House

What a tremendous gift “Pete” and Abbie Gudmundsen gave to the University, to the people who live throughout their beloved Sandhills, and to the entire State of Nebraska when they donated their 12,817 acre ranch, the Rafter C, to the University of Nebraska Foundation in 1978. And what tremendous work our faculty and staff have accomplished here over the past 20 years. UNL faculty and staff research and educational efforts have truly made this ranch the “Gudmundsen Sandhills Laboratory.”

Wagonhammer Education Center Groundbreaking

Last year when I had the opportunity to speak at the 2002 Gudmundsen Sandhills Laboratory Open House I noted the tremendous gift Pete and Abbie Gudmundsen gave the university, the people who live throughout their beloved Sandhills, and, indeed, the entire state of Nebraska when they donated their almost 13,000 acre ranch, the Rafter C, to the University of Nebraska Foundation back in 1978.

"Canzoni per l'America: gli Stati Uniti e le sue genti attraverso la musica folk"

Riassunto Il nostro viaggio attraverso la musica folk americana partirà dal un racconto della Grande Depressione, dello stato di indigenza nel quale versava la maggior parte della popolazione e attraverso le vicende e le canzoni del nonno della canzone di protesta: Woody Guthrie. Sottolineeremo come egli abbia influenzato successivamente tutta una serie di cantautori che si formarono con lui, attraverso i suoi scritti o i suoi pezzi. Vedremo dunque come un altro grande musicista, Pete Seeger lottò più volte contro la censura per dare risonanza a tante battaglie altrimenti inascoltate, come i movimenti per i diritti civili degli afroamericani e per la pace. Con le canzoni di Bob Dylan analizzeremo i movimenti giovanili e pacifisti contro la guerra nel Vietnam e i fermenti della beat generation. Considereremo con Bruce Springsteen i nuovi diseredati della recessione economica, la nuova ondata di nazionalismi, le censure successive agli attentati dell’ 11 Settembre 2001 e il nuovo ordine mondiale. La musica folk continuerà dunque a vivere grazie alla comunità che la rende viva e la fa circolare, ma soprattutto, grazie al passaggio di testimone tra i grandi artisti che l’hanno resa concretamente la voce dell’America.