Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. A recently proposed method is found to lack power when the correlation structure is mis-specified. Tests that have good power to detect mis-specifications of this sort are described. We also consider the properties of the tests in the presence of more general mis-specifications.

Densities and Viscosities of vegetable oils of nutritional value

Densities and viscosities of five vegetable oils (Babassu oil, Buriti oil, Brazil nut oil, macadamia oil, and grape seed oil) and of three blends of Buriti oil and soybean oil were measured as a function of temperature and correlated by empirical equations. The estimation capability of two types of predictive methodologies was tested using the measured data. The first group of methods was based on the fatty acid composition of the oils, while the other was based on their triacylglycerol composition, as a multicomponent system. In general, the six models tested presented a good representation of the physical properties considered in this work. A simple method of calculation is also proposed to predict the dynamic viscosity of methyl and ethyl ester biodiesels, based on the fatty acid composition of the original oil. Data presented in this work and the developed model can be valuable for designing processes and equipment for the edible oil industry and for biodiesel production.

Systematics of nuclear densities, deformations and excitation energies within the context of the generalized rotation-vibration model

We present a large-scale systematics of charge densities, excitation energies and deformation parameters For hundreds of heavy nuclei The systematics is based on a generalized rotation vibration model for the quadrupole and octupole modes and takes into account second-order contributions of the deformations as well as the effects of finite diffuseness values for the nuclear densities. We compare our results with the predictions of classical surface vibrations in the hydrodynamical approximation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved.

Probing the (6,7)Li nucleon densities through a new break-up process approach

In this work we present a double folding optical model analysis of new near-barrier quasi-elastic experimental data for the (6,7)Li + (120)Sn systems. From the analysis, it was possible to confirm the ground-state nucleon densities assumed for the weakly bound (6,7)Li isotopes. The apparent discrepancies between the experimental densities and those based on Dirac-Hartree-Fock Bogoliubov (DHB) calculations were removed. A new approach that simulates the projectile break-up and a positive polarization from couplings of (6,7)Li bound states with the continuum was considered in the reaction mechanism. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of power densities and irradiation times on the degree of conversion and temperature increase of a microhybrid dental composite resin

The different parameters used for the photoactivation process provide changes in the degree of conversion (DC%) and temperature rise (TR) of the composite resins. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the DC (%) and TR of the microhybrid composite resin photoactivated by a new generation LED. For the KBr pellet technique, the composite resin was placed into a metallic mould (1-mm thickness and 4-mm diameter) and photoactivated as follows: continuous LED LCU with different power density values (50-1000 mW/cm(2)). The measurements for the DC (%) were made in a FTIR Spectrometer Bomen (model MB-102, Quebec-Canada). The spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra for both uncured and cured samples were analyzed using an accessory for the diffuse reflectance. The measurements were recorded in the absorbance operating under the following conditions: 32 scans, 4-cm(-1) resolution, and a 300 to 4000-cm(-1) wavelength. The percentage of unreacted carbon-carbon double bonds (% C=C) was determined from the ratio of the absorbance intensities of aliphatic C=C (peak at 1638 cm(-1)) against an internal standard before and after the curing of the specimen: aromatic C-C (peak at 1608 cm-1). For the TR, the samples were made in a metallic mould (2-mm thickness and 4-mm diameter) and photoactivated during 5, 10, and 20 s. The thermocouple was attached to the multimeter to allow the temperature readings. The DC (%) and TR were calculated by the standard technique and submitted to ANOVA and Tukey`s test (p < 0.05). The degree of conversion values varied from 35.0 (+/- 1.3) to 45.0 (+/- 2.4) for 5 s, 45.0 (+/- 1.3) to 55.0 (+/- 2.4) for 10 s, and 47.0 (+/- 1.3) to 52.0 (+/- 2.4) for 20 s. For the TR, the values ranged from 0.3 (+/- 0.01) to 5.4 (+/- 0.11)degrees C for 5 s, from 0.5 (+/- 0.02) to 9.3 (+/- 0.28)degrees C for 10 s, and from 1.0 (+/- 0.06) to 15.0 (+/- 0.95)degrees C for 20 s. The power densities and irradiation times showed a significant effect on the degree of conversion and temperature rise.

Quartz recrystallization regimes, c-axis texture transitions and fluid inclusion reequilibration in a prograde greenschist to amphibolite facies mylonite zone (Ribeira Shear Zone, SE Brazil)

The crystal-plastic behavior of quartz mylonites from the Ribeira Shear Zone (SE Brazil), a major strike-slip structure that was active during a prograde metamorphic phase related to the Neoproterozoic Brasiliano-Pan African Orogeny, was investigated using a multi-method approach. Geothermobarometry results indicate deformational conditions ranging from similar to 300 to similar to 630 degrees C and 500-700 MPa. A strong correlation between mapped metamorphic zones and a dominance of different dynamic recrystallization mechanisms of quartz occurs within the mylonite zone. Bulging recrystallization (BLG) dominates within the chlorite zone between 300 and 410 degrees C, subgrain rotation recrystallization (SGR) operates within the biotite zone from 410 to 520 degrees C, and grain boundary migration recrystallization (GBM) dominates in the garnet zone above 520 degrees C. The development of quartz c-axis textures is mainly governed by temperature and dynamic recrystallization mechanisms. Textures from BLG zone mylonites are characterized by maxima around Z; SGR zone mylonites display single girdles or asymmetric type I crossed girdles; and GBM zone mylonites comprise maxima around Y and intermediate between X and Z. The scarcity or absence of water-bearing fluid inclusions in quartz mylonites from the SGR and GBM zones, which are dominated by carbonic inclusions, suggests water-deficient conditions, whereas BLG zone mylonites are dominated by water-bearing inclusions. This evidence indicates that water was available in the protoliths but has been eliminated with increasing deformation and deformation temperature. No effect of the water content variation on the quartz microstructural and recrystallized grain size evolution was detected, and little influence on c-axis texture development was observed. Most of the fluid inclusion densities were reequilibrated during the shear zone exhumation history, recording a decompression in the range of 300-500 MPa, while microstructural reequilibration effects related to the prograde metamorphism are largely preserved. Fluid inclusion microstructures and densities from two SGR zone samples preserved evidence for a near isothermal compression within the interior of the Ribeira Shear Zone during the prograde metamorphism. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dislocation based theory for the deformation hardening behavior of DP steels : Impact of martensite content and ferrite grain size

A dislocation model, accurately describing the uniaxial plastic stress-strain behavior of dual phase (DP) steels, is proposed and the impact of martensite content and ferrite grain size in four commercially produced DP steels is analyzed. It is assumed that the plastic deformation process is localized to the ferrite. This is taken into account by introducing a non-homogeneity parameter, f(e), that specifies the volume fraction of ferrite taking active part in the plastic deformation process. It is found that the larger the martensite content the smaller the initial volume fraction of active ferrite which yields a higher initial deformation hardening rate. This explains the high energy absorbing capacity of DP steels with high volume fractions of martensite. Further, the effect of ferrite grain size strengthening in DP steels is important. The flow stress grain size sensitivity for DP steels is observed to be 7 times larger than that for single phase ferrite.

How do different densities in a network affect the optimal location of service centers?

The p-median problem is often used to locate p service centers by minimizing their distances to a geographically distributed demand (n). The optimal locations are sensitive to geographical context such as road network and demand points especially when they are asymmetrically distributed in the plane. Most studies focus on evaluating performances of the p-median model when p and n vary. To our knowledge this is not a very well-studied problem when the road network is alternated especially when it is applied in a real world context. The aim in this study is to analyze how the optimal location solutions vary, using the p-median model, when the density in the road network is alternated. The investigation is conducted by the means of a case study in a region in Sweden with an asymmetrically distributed population (15,000 weighted demand points), Dalecarlia. To locate 5 to 50 service centers we use the national transport administrations official road network (NVDB). The road network consists of 1.5 million nodes. To find the optimal location we start with 500 candidate nodes in the network and increase the number of candidate nodes in steps up to 67,000. To find the optimal solution we use a simulated annealing algorithm with adaptive tuning of the temperature. The results show that there is a limited improvement in the optimal solutions when nodes in the road network increase and p is low. When p is high the improvements are larger. The results also show that choice of the best network depends on p. The larger p the larger density of the network is needed. 

Competition of sicklepod, cassia obtusifolia l., densities on soybean, glycine max (l.) merr., at variable row distance

Competition studies with soybeans, Glycine max (L.) Merr. "Bragg." and sicklepod, Cassia obtusifolia L., were conducted at the Agricultural Research and Education Center of the University of Florida in Quincy, Florida. Two field experiments were established, one on May 22, 1975. and the other four weeks later, on June 19, 1975, to determine the competitive effects of various sicklepod densities and the influences of soybean row distances on weed dry matter, soybear plant characteristics, yield components and seed yield, and on soil nutrient content. Control, low, medium, and high sicklepod densities in the first experiment were O, 25,000, 53,000, and 77,000 p1ants/ha, respectively; while the second experiment presented control, low, medium, and high sicklepod densities of O, 36,000, 68,000, and 122,000 plants/ha, respectively. Three soybean row distance treatments were tested using a constant pattern of 90-, 60-, and 45-cm widths throughout the growing season. Three other treatments, evaluated in a variable patern, were initially seeded in 30-cm row widths. Five weeks after planting, an appropriate number of soybean rows were harvested from the 30"cm pattern to establish row distances of 90, 60, and 30-60 cm for the remainder of the season. ln the greenhouse a test was conducted to evaluate the effects af those variables on seed germination and seedling vigor for the next soybean generation. As a result of full-season sicklepod competition, soybean plants were less branched, set fewer leaves, and presented thinner stems as compared to the control. However, height of soybean plants was not affected by the presence of sicklepod. ln one of the two experiments, number of nodes decreased for soybeans under weed campetition. The yield components--number of pods; number of seeds, and seed yield per soybean plant--were all similarly reduced due to weed competition. Seeds per pod were decreased to a lesser extent. Soybean seed yields per unit area were significantly diminished by increasing levels af sicklepod ínfestation. While the control produced 3120 kg/ha, the sicklepod densities of 25,000, 53,000, and 77,000 plants/ha reduced seed yíelds 47, 65, and 73%, respectively. As soybean row distances decreased, number of branches, number of leaves, and stem diameter of soybeans decreased. However, the height of soybean plants increased with narrwing of row width. The components of seed yield--number of pods, number of seeds, and seed yield per soybean plant--diminished as row spacing was reduced. Maximum difference between row distances for these attributes was attained for soybean plants under weed-free conditions. Generally, as row width decreased, soybean seed yield per unit area increased. Specifically, soybear.s in 90-cm rows, either in constant or variable row pattern, yielded less than soybeans in 60- and 30-60-cm rows in the variable pattern. Soil contents of phosphorus, potassium, calcium, and magnesium were not affected by the various levels of sicklepod and soybean populalions. Neither the sicklepod densities nor the soybean row distances influenced seed germination and seedling vigor in the next soybean generation. Sicklepod was a strong competitor with soybeans at all density ranges investigated. Because sicklepod grows taller than soybeans during the reproductive stages of the crop, limited success can be reached by varying row spacing alone. However, this practice is considered an integral measure to complement other methods of sicklepod control. Compared to constant rows, the soybean cropping system using variable row spacings presents the choice of planting soybeans at close row spacings to provide early competition with weeds and the possibility of obtaining a forage crop after the first month of growth, without any decreases on the final seed yields.

Optimal auction with a general distribution: virtual valuation without densities

We characterize the optimal auction in an independent private values framework for a completely general distribution of valuations. We do this introducing a new concept: the generalized virtual valuation. To show the wider applicability of this concept we present two examples showing how to extend the classical models of Mussa and Rosen and Baron and Myerson for arbitrary distributions

Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options

Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. And market expectations on financial variables may influence macroeconomic policy decisions. It can be useful also for corporate and financial institutions decision making. This paper uses the Liu et all (2007) approach to estimate the option-implied Risk-neutral densities from the Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate distribution. We then compare the RND with actual exchange rates, on a monthly basis, in order to estimate the relative risk-aversion of investors and also obtain a Real-world density for the exchange rate. We are the first to calculate relative risk-aversion and the option-implied Real World Density for an emerging market currency. Our empirical application uses a sample of Brazilian Real/US Dollar options traded at BM&F-Bovespa from 1999 to 2011. The RND is estimated using a Mixture of Two Log-Normals distribution and then the real-world density is obtained by means of the Liu et al. (2007) parametric risktransformations. The relative risk aversion is calculated for the full sample. Our estimated value of the relative risk aversion parameter is around 2.7, which is in line with other articles that have estimated this parameter for the Brazilian Economy, such as Araújo (2005) and Issler and Piqueira (2000). Our out-of-sample evaluation results showed that the RND has some ability to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate. Abe et all (2007) found also mixed results in the out-of-sample analysis of the RND forecast ability for exchange rate options. However, when we incorporate the risk aversion into RND in order to obtain a Real-world density, the out-of-sample performance improves substantially, with satisfactory results in both Kolmogorov and Berkowitz tests. Therefore, we would suggest not using the “pure” RND, but rather taking into account risk aversion in order to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate.

Influence of stocking densities in the nursery phase on the growth of Macrobrachium amazonicum reared in net pens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Transport stress in matrinxa, Brycon cephalus (Teleostei : Characidae), at different densities

Matrinxa, Brycon cephalus, is a native teleost fish from the Amazon Basin, and is of economic importance for cultivation for food and sport in Brazil. Mortality losses due to handling and transport of this stenohaline freshwater species are common. The effects of transportation at different densities on the biochemical stress responses of matrinxa (mean weight 1 kg) were examined. Fish were subjected to three different transport densities (100, 200, and 300 kg m(-3)) for four h in water with added salt (0.6%). The fish were bled at departure (baseline level), arrival (immediately after transportation) and at 24 and 96 h after arrival (recovery period). Blood glucose, cortisol, sodium, chloride, potassium and ammonia were used as stress bioindicators. No mortality was observed and no alterations in plasma cortisol were registered. However, blood glucose and ammonia levels increased and serum sodium and plasma chloride decreased on arrival for the fish transported at the highest densities. These stress responses were transient and the concentrations returned to baseline levels within 24 h. This study showed that matrinxa can be transported at densities as high as those tested in the present study, at least under the conditions employed in this study. A recovery period of at least 24 h is strongly recommended.